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Opening Day Roster


Brewcrew82
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What does everyone think the OD roster will look like? Obviously, spring training will tell us a lot, but it's never too early to start thinking about how things will end up shaking out. The Naquin and Voit acquisitions in particular got me tossing around various scenarios in my head throughout the day. In the end, I think it can be broken down as such:

Locks:

P: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Miley, Houser, Williams, Bush, Milner (9)

H: Contreras, Caratini, Tellez, Urias, Adames, Anderson, Yelich, Taylor, Winker (9)

So, that leaves 8 open spots, with the following legitimately in the mix:

P: Cousins, Strzelecki, Guerra, Junk, Miller, Payamps, Peguero, Wilson, Varland, Uribe, Robinson, Mejia? Claudio?

H: Hiura, Brosseau, Miller, Toro, Turang, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Perkins, Voit, Naquin. Harrison? 

Lots of different options. But if I had to guess right now, this is probably what I would go with, before any Spring Training games have been played:

C: Contreras, Caratini

IF: Tellez, Urias, Adames, Anderson, Toro, Voit

OF: Yelich, Winker, Mitchell, Taylor, Naquin

SP: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Miley, Houser

RP: Williams, Bush, Strzelecki, Cousins, Milner, Payamps, Guerra

Thoughts? Obviously, I could have gone with Brosseau instead of Toro, but he has options and Toro would give us an infielder (other than Rowdy) who can hit from the left side. Turang is another option, but I think the Anderson acquisition, plus the fact that he's not eligible for draft pick compensation, has pretty much sealed his fate as someone who's going to be held down till May/June. 

I've got Voit and Naquin making the team as NRIs. Naquin to be the left-handed side of a platoon with Taylor and Voit to be the right-handed side of a platoon with Rowdy and Winker. I'm assuming Hiura is destined to be traded at some point during spring training. Probably for something similar to Arcia, unfortunately. 

I really think Frelick has a chance to win the starting CF job over Mitchell, but the fact that he'll be away at the WBC and that he's currently not on the 40-man keep me from penciling him in. And while I wouldn't be shocked whatsoever if Wiemer (who's also eligible for draft pick compensation) tears it up in the spring, I have a hard time seeing him make the final cut. 

Starting rotation is obviously pretty much set following Ashby's injury. I don't think they'll go with a pure 6 man rotation, but I do think they'll use it at times, with Houser staying stretched out as a multi-inning bullpen option during periods when he's not starting.

Bullpen is somewhat difficult to make out after Williams and Bush. Strzelecki seems as good a bet as anyone to take over the 7th inning role from Boxberger. Cousins likewise figures to be in the late inning mix, and I think he's too good to stash in AAA at this point. Milner is obviously a lock as our only real lefty option. Meanwhile, you have a litany of competitors for the final two spots. I wouldn't be shocked if Abner Uribe, coming off a dominating AFL performance, ends up making life difficult for the Brewers. In the end, though, the Brewers are going to want to maintain as best they can the depth they've accumulated this offseason, which means that guys with options remaining will give way to guys without remaining options. In this case, Payamps and Guerra are the specific beneficiaries. 

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1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

What does everyone think the OD roster will look like? Obviously, spring training will tell us a lot, but it's never too early to start thinking about how things will end up shaking out. The Naquin and Voit acquisitions in particular got me tossing around various scenarios in my head throughout the day. In the end, I think it can be broken down as such:

Locks:

P: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Miley, Houser, Williams, Bush, Milner (9)

H: Contreras, Caratini, Tellez, Urias, Adames, Anderson, Yelich, Taylor, Winker (9)

So, that leaves 8 open spots, with the following legitimately in the mix:

P: Cousins, Strzelecki, Guerra, Junk, Miller, Payamps, Peguero, Wilson, Varland, Uribe, Robinson, Mejia? Claudio?

H: Hiura, Brosseau, Miller, Toro, Turang, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Perkins, Voit, Naquin. Harrison? 

Lots of different options. But if I had to guess right now, this is probably what I would go with, before any Spring Training games have been played:

C: Contreras, Caratini

IF: Tellez, Urias, Adames, Anderson, Toro, Voit

OF: Yelich, Winker, Mitchell, Taylor, Naquin

SP: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Miley, Houser

RP: Williams, Bush, Strzelecki, Cousins, Milner, Payamps, Guerra

Thoughts? Obviously, I could have gone with Brosseau instead of Toro, but he has options and Toro would give us an infielder (other than Rowdy) who can hit from the left side. Turang is another option, but I think the Anderson acquisition, plus the fact that he's not eligible for draft pick compensation, has pretty much sealed his fate as someone who's going to be held down till May/June. 

I've got Voit and Naquin making the team as NRIs. Naquin to be the left-handed side of a platoon with Taylor and Voit to be the right-handed side of a platoon with Rowdy and Winker. I'm assuming Hiura is destined to be traded at some point during spring training. Probably for something similar to Arcia, unfortunately. 

I really think Frelick has a chance to win the starting CF job over Mitchell, but the fact that he'll be away at the WBC and that he's currently not on the 40-man keep me from penciling him in. And while I wouldn't be shocked whatsoever if Wiemer (who's also eligible for draft pick compensation) tears it up in the spring, I have a hard time seeing him make the final cut. 

Starting rotation is obviously pretty much set following Ashby's injury. I don't think they'll go with a pure 6 man rotation, but I do think they'll use it at times, with Houser staying stretched out as a multi-inning bullpen option during periods when he's not starting.

Bullpen is somewhat difficult to make out after Williams and Bush. Strzelecki seems as good a bet as anyone to take over the 7th inning role from Boxberger. Cousins likewise figures to be in the late inning mix, and I think he's too good to stash in AAA at this point. Milner is obviously a lock as our only real lefty option. Meanwhile, you have a litany of competitors for the final two spots. I wouldn't be shocked if Abner Uribe, coming off a dominating AFL performance, ends up making life difficult for the Brewers. In the end, though, the Brewers are going to want to maintain as best they can the depth they've accumulated this offseason, which means that guys with options remaining will give way to guys without remaining options. In this case, Payamps and Guerra are the specific beneficiaries. 

Probably pretty close. I do think that Voit saying he chose Milwaukee when he had other NRI offers tends to indicate he’s probably been assured there’s an open path to the major league roster.

I think Blake Perkins is on a major league deal and a switch hitter. He could also be in the mix with Naquin.

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I think Brosseau makes it. I don't know if he is one of the 13 best position players, but I do think his skill set complements the rest of the roster enough where he is part of the best 13-player group. I think Turang and Miller are your opening day middle infield in Nashville. That leaves Toro, Naquin, Hiura, Frelick and Voit battling for two spots.

You know how everyone has spent the offseason talking about how awkward a fit Keston Hiura is for this roster? The same goes for Luke Voit, except at least Hiura could be a break glass in case of emergency option at second (hope you'd never have to use it, but at least he has experience there). Both seem like protection in case Winker hits a setback physically.

I'd like to see Frelick take one of the last two spots, but I am increasingly thinking it isn't going to happen. Personally of the remaining ones then, Toro and Naquin seem to best balance the roster, so I'll go with them. I don't blame anyone for inserting Hiura or Voit, though. Having both of them in camp sure makes it look like the Brewers think that profile has a place on this roster.

As for the bullpen, it depends upon 1. health and 2. how many of the out-of-options (or rule 5) guys pitch themselves out of contention by opening day. @Brewcrew82's bullpen picks look like the best April bullpen, but it wouldn't shock me if Strzelecki or Cousins starts in triple-A. If either Varland flashes upside or Wilson looks better out of the bullpen than as a starter, they could keep them and send one of the pair with options down. Injury or ineffectiveness would likely have whichever one is sent down on the roster by mid-May anyways.

I'll guess that scenario plays out and Strzelecki is swapped for Varland.

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I think the backup infielders are Brosseau and Miller.  Brosseau did well last year and plays 1B against lefties and can also play 2b/3B.  Miller is a RH option at all three too. I don't see Voit who who is very limited defensively an Ks a bunch or Toro who is a terrible hitter as making it. IMO Hiura is done with Milwaukee once they signed Voit.

I am hoping Frelick has a great spring and starts in CF/RF with Mitchell and Taylor the other two OFs. Naquin may be the 4th OF if they want to keep Frelick down. 

Right now the SPs are set. The very weak pen has: Williams/Bush/Cousins/Strzelecki/Milner/Payamps/Junk.  I hope Arnold can do something to improve the pen, but I'm not holding my breath. 

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At this point I don't think they trade Hiura, wouldn't rule out trading Voit. In the end though I believe Hiura makes the team, Voit is added to the 40 man and optioned. 

Brosseau makes the team as well as a guy that can hit left hand pitching and be the weak side platoon for Winker/Tellez.

Would probably go with Toro as the final guy for now. Could be out of convenience being a local guy but Miller seems to always be at events promoting the Brewers so maybe he makes the team somehow.

For the guys you listed as on the bubble for pitchers will go with Strzelecki, Guerra, Payamps, Wilson to maintain depth at the start of the year but guys will have to have positive results in order to keep their spot.

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17 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

What does everyone think the OD roster will look like? Obviously, spring training will tell us a lot, but it's never too early to start thinking about how things will end up shaking out. The Naquin and Voit acquisitions in particular got me tossing around various scenarios in my head throughout the day. In the end, I think it can be broken down as such:

Locks:

P: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Miley, Houser, Williams, Bush, Milner (9)

H: Contreras, Caratini, Tellez, Urias, Adames, Anderson, Yelich, Taylor, Winker (9)

So, that leaves 8 open spots, with the following legitimately in the mix:

P: Cousins, Strzelecki, Guerra, Junk, Miller, Payamps, Peguero, Wilson, Varland, Uribe, Robinson, Mejia? Claudio?

H: Hiura, Brosseau, Miller, Toro, Turang, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Perkins, Voit, Naquin. Harrison? 

Lots of different options. But if I had to guess right now, this is probably what I would go with, before any Spring Training games have been played:

C: Contreras, Caratini

IF: Tellez, Urias, Adames, Anderson, Toro, Voit

OF: Yelich, Winker, Mitchell, Taylor, Naquin

SP: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Miley, Houser

RP: Williams, Bush, Strzelecki, Cousins, Milner, Payamps, Guerra

Thoughts? Obviously, I could have gone with Brosseau instead of Toro, but he has options and Toro would give us an infielder (other than Rowdy) who can hit from the left side. Turang is another option, but I think the Anderson acquisition, plus the fact that he's not eligible for draft pick compensation, has pretty much sealed his fate as someone who's going to be held down till May/June. 

I've got Voit and Naquin making the team as NRIs. Naquin to be the left-handed side of a platoon with Taylor and Voit to be the right-handed side of a platoon with Rowdy and Winker. I'm assuming Hiura is destined to be traded at some point during spring training. Probably for something similar to Arcia, unfortunately. 

I really think Frelick has a chance to win the starting CF job over Mitchell, but the fact that he'll be away at the WBC and that he's currently not on the 40-man keep me from penciling him in. And while I wouldn't be shocked whatsoever if Wiemer (who's also eligible for draft pick compensation) tears it up in the spring, I have a hard time seeing him make the final cut. 

Starting rotation is obviously pretty much set following Ashby's injury. I don't think they'll go with a pure 6 man rotation, but I do think they'll use it at times, with Houser staying stretched out as a multi-inning bullpen option during periods when he's not starting.

Bullpen is somewhat difficult to make out after Williams and Bush. Strzelecki seems as good a bet as anyone to take over the 7th inning role from Boxberger. Cousins likewise figures to be in the late inning mix, and I think he's too good to stash in AAA at this point. Milner is obviously a lock as our only real lefty option. Meanwhile, you have a litany of competitors for the final two spots. I wouldn't be shocked if Abner Uribe, coming off a dominating AFL performance, ends up making life difficult for the Brewers. In the end, though, the Brewers are going to want to maintain as best they can the depth they've accumulated this offseason, which means that guys with options remaining will give way to guys without remaining options. In this case, Payamps and Guerra are the specific beneficiaries. 

Agree with your roster except I’m substituting in Bryse Wilson & Gus Varland for Cousins & Payamps.

Varlands upside and Wilson’s starter depth potential.

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4 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Agree with your roster except I’m substituting in Bryse Wilson & Gus Varland for Cousins & Payamps.

Varlands upside and Wilson’s starter depth potential.

Yeah. I went back and forth on Wilson and Cousins. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if thats the direction they went in, and it would definitely go with their preserving depth strategy. However, I just don’t see it with Wilson, particularly when we already have Junk, and I think Cousins is Ottavino 2.0. If we still had Hader or Rogers, then I’d probably go with Wilson, but I think we’ll need Cousins and his huge SO ability starting right away in high leverage. 

As for Varland, I just don’t see us playing the Rule 5 game, unless he shows something major in spring training. This team doesn’t need another Wei-Chung Wang situation, where you pretty much waste a roster spot while you’re trying to contend. 

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47 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

The bullpen was bad in August and September, and it feels worse now. When like half your bullpen spots are up for grabs, that is not encouraging.

I’m higher on it than most. Devin is a top 5/3 reliever in the game. Bush, Strzelecki, and Cousins all bring great stuff and big strikeout ability. Payamps has been solid. Guerra throws 100 MPH and will hopefully have ditched his horrible 2 seamer. Then, you have up and comers like Abner Uribe, who has the ability to become the next Hader/Williams, and Cam Robinson, who really shined in the minors last year. And Ashby will (hopefully)help solve the LHP shortage once he returns, as I think he’ll be mainly featured out of the bullpen. The one concern I have is Milner repeating last season, but there are worse options out there (hello Alex Claudio). 

Is the bullpen less proven than we’ve become accustomed to over the last few years? No doubt. But I think the talent is definitely there and commend Arnold for some of his transactions in that department this off-season.

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3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah. I went back and forth on Wilson and Cousins. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if thats the direction they went in, and it would definitely go with their preserving depth strategy. However, I just don’t see it with Wilson, particularly when we already have Junk, and I think Cousins is Ottavino 2.0. If we still had Hader or Rogers, then I’d probably go with Wilson, but I think we’ll need Cousins and his huge SO ability starting right away in high leverage. 

As for Varland, I just don’t see us playing the Rule 5 game, unless he shows something major in spring training. This team doesn’t need another Wei-Chung Wang situation, where you pretty much waste a roster spot while you’re trying to contend. 

Yeah, it’s more the reading of SR’s on Varland after his conversion to reliever.  98 with a put away breaking ball has my attention. 

With Wilson, it’s more my confidence in the teams PDS and what they can do with him in the lab. I also remember his starts vs us and how he pretty much shut us down. 

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3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I’m higher on it than most. Devin is a top 5/3 reliever in the game. Bush, Strzelecki, and Cousins all bring great stuff and big strikeout ability. Payamps has been solid. Guerra throws 100 MPH and will hopefully have ditched his horrible 2 seamer. Then, you have up and comers like Abner Uribe, who has the ability to become the next Hader/Williams, and Cam Robinson, who really shined in the minors last year. And Ashby will (hopefully)help solve the LHP shortage once he returns, as I think he’ll be mainly featured out of the bullpen. The one concern I have is Milner repeating last season, but there are worse options out there (hello Alex Claudio). 

Is the bullpen less proven than we’ve become accustomed to over the last few years? No doubt. But I think the talent is definitely there and commend Arnold for some of his transactions in that department this off-season.

Agree with your bullpen assessment.

The team, between the 40 man and Nashville has 15+ legit options for 2-3 bullpen spots. Might take a couple of months for the breakouts to occur, but eventually they will and we’ll have a strong 8 man.  Incredible job by Arnold & co.

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We can be so cheap at times (e.g. no 2022 deadline bat, declined Boxberger option, DFA of Lamet, etc.), but then make a maddening decision like putting Jose Urena at $1.25 million on the 2022 OD roster. But my guess is we'll opt to be cheap again, thus keeping Hiura and his guaranteed $2.2 million salary and even refusing to send Varland back to Dodgers after paying $100k to get him (though $50k can be retrieved).

I predict we'll option Voit (after adding to 40-man), Cousins and Turang, even though they're likely amongst our top 26 players. And we'll trade Payamps if there's no other pitcher injury.

C: Contreras, Caratini

IF: Adames, Tellez, Urias, Brosseau, Hiura

OF: Yelich, Mitchell, Taylor

DH: Winker

UT: Anderson, Toro

SP: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Miley, Houser

RP: Williams, Bush, Strzelecki, Milner, Guerra, Wilson, Varland

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I think Turang will be a victim of there being a tangible benefit to him staying in AAA a couple of weeks, but I think that the best OD roster features him, and that the Brewers will have him up most of the year. He's by far the best defender among the players involved, he's a natural SS backup, and if the Brewers run with few dedicated OFs then his ability to play CF comes in real handy too. I also think his skillset being based on very good plate discipline and solid contact skills means he'll see a fairly smooth transition to the majors with a smaller dropoff in offensive output than most. I think he'll be the Cardinals version of Kolten Wong from basically day 1. 

So I think pencilling Turang in as the starter at 2B is the best way to go, I think he'll end up there soon enough, and I hope the Brewers will surprise me by not playing the service time games.

As for the other rookies: Mitchell is a lock. Frelick won't accrue a full year, but could be up soon. I*ve seen a couple of scouts/evaluators point out that while he has all the tools to be a very good defender, his routes and reads are quite rough atm, likely due to not having a ton of experience in CF yet. So perhaps "Needs to work on his defense" has *some* merit and isn't purely a meme excuse. He's not on the 40-man, so I think they'll evaluate things like how it works with Anderson in the OF sometimes, if Winker is playable in LF now that he's (hopefully) healthy, how Mitchell does. Injuries. If there is no blatant need, I think he stays down at least past Super 2. If there is a need, he can be up in April. But not OD. 

Wiemer is someone I think they want to give more playing time to. If Turang was a guy who'd make a smooth offensive transition but without a high offensive ceiling, Wiemer is the opposite. A ton of swing and miss in his game already, and that can make for a rough transition. But the kind of power that makes him a good hitter if he can even sniff a below average BA. But more work in AAA for him. Perhaps a mid-late season callup if there is need for a RHH OF. Or if he really tears it up. 

The real mystery to me is Hiura. Like there is something tantalizingly close with him. I don't really buy his offensive performance last year. That kind of swing and miss and strikeout rate isn't sustainable for anyone. The contact rate absolutely has to keep going up (As bad as it was in 2022, it was trully horrific in 2021) for him to have any chance at all, especially considering his lack of a defensive home (I think that after a rough start he's perfectly cromulent at 1B now, but we have Rowdy). But I also feel like he's agonizingly close to it; his issues seem more timing based than anything else, and perhaps that can be tweaked further. He needs a big spring, not so much in terms of pure stats, but in order to show progress in his game. The reverse splits (I don't think they are as extreme as they seem, but they're probably real at this point) makes him an awkward roster fit; without it he'd have a spot as a 1B/DH platoon and occasional 2B/LF start. Now I don't know. 

I'll go with Hiura on the roster for now. If he's traded or injured, I'd expect Miller given that he is also a RHH 1B/2B (But who has played 3B and SS too). But it could also be anyone, as Hiura doesn't fill an essential need on the roster that has to be replaced like for like. 

As for the NRIs I don't think anyone makes the roster on the position player side. Naquin and Voit are the closest, but I think they're just there for depth in case of injuries. Curiously, Voit does have 2 options remaining and has 3 more days until he reaches 5 years of service time according to FG. So he has a chance of being added to the 40-man and optioned to start the year. Good depth to have. 

So, position players. 

C: Caratini, Contreras

IF: Rowdy, Urias, Adames, Anderson (+OF), Brosseau, Hiura (+LF), Toro. 

OF: Yelich, Taylor, Mitchell, Winker (Mostly DH)

ST will decide a fair bit. Hiura in particular. Turang can hopefully make a strong enough case to be included. If there is no Turang they might go for another OF instead of Hiura (If traded) or Toro (if not) just to have a 3rd good OF defender on the roster. 

On the pitching side... ST will truly decide a *lot*. A bunch of NRI's, a rule 5 pick, a ton of inexperienced relievers, quite a few optionless veterans. 

Locks: Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Houser, Miley, Williams, Strzelecki, Bush, Milner and probably Payamps. Then for the OD roster I'd expect the optionless veterans to win out assuming they look even halfway decent in ST; so Guerra and Wilson. Varland will be interesting, probably hard to make it without injuries. 

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Here's how I see roster heading to Chicago for OD...

Lineup (9)

Yelich, Adames, Winker, Contreras, Tellez, Urias, Naquin, Anderson, Mitchell

Bench (4)

Caratini, Voit, Toro, Taylor

Rotation (5)

Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Miley

Bullpen (8)

Williams, Bush, Strzelecki, Cousins, Guerra, Milner, Houser, B Wilson

IL

Ashby, J Wilson 

Very much a fan of this team!

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This will be interesting to track and predict as spring training goes on.

My Guess as of today

C-Contresras 1B- Rowdy 2B- Urias SS- Adames 3B- Anderson LF- Winker CF-Mitchell RF-Yeli DH- Viot  Bench-Caratini, Brosseau, Naquin, Toro  (maybe trade Huira for a right handed hitting OF and replace Naquin)

SP- Burnes, Woody, Peralta, Lauer, Houser, Miley Pen- Williams, Bush, Cousins, Payamps, Guerra, Milner, Varland   (If none of the roster bubble pitchers show out I think Varland gets a chance to stay, could be 6 or so guys to take the last pen spot)(not sure who else is out of options I left out) 

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16 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

This will be interesting to track and predict as spring training goes on.

My Guess as of today

C-Contresras 1B- Rowdy 2B- Urias SS- Adames 3B- Anderson LF- Winker CF-Mitchell RF-Yeli DH- Viot  Bench-Caratini, Brosseau, Naquin, Toro  (maybe trade Huira for a right handed hitting OF and replace Naquin)

SP- Burnes, Woody, Peralta, Lauer, Houser, Miley Pen- Williams, Bush, Cousins, Payamps, Guerra, Milner, Varland   (If none of the roster bubble pitchers show out I think Varland gets a chance to stay, could be 6 or so guys to take the last pen spot)(not sure who else is out of options I left out) 

Winker will not play OF, only be out there in emergency... OD OF will most likely be Yelich, Mitchell, Naquin vs RHP.

Strez will be in OD bullpen.

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2 hours ago, DR28 said:

Winker will not play OF, only be out there in emergency... OD OF will most likely be Yelich, Mitchell, Naquin vs RHP.

Strez will be in OD bullpen.

My thought is I would rather have the offensive upside of Voit at DH and Winker in LF than the defense of Naquin in RF and Winker at DH. CC will probably use a different defensive alignment almost everyday to start the year. I would perfer Turang at 2B, Urias at 3B, Anderson in RF, and Winker/Vott at DH however I would suspect we will keep Turang in AAA for a month or so to gain the extra year of control.

Strez does deserve to be on the roster, I just feel at this point no one has had time to impress in the offseason so keeping Varland and having some deserving players with options send down(not sure on all the bullpen pieces remaining options) seems like the Brewer way of putting an opening day roster together,

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6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:
I'm not sure we can afford to have both Voit and Hiura on the roster. 

That would be a terrible bench defensively 

I certainly hope both of them aren’t on OD roster

There are too many other good options … better options

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I just don't see an opening day roster with Voit and Hiura.

I think your line-up is great, but one of those guys will be replaced with Toro imo.

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21 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I largely agree with this. Though, I'm not sure we can afford to have both Voit and Hiura on the roster. 

With no shift we will need a better defender playing the infield. Probably Toro plus he is a switch hitter. One or the other Voit or Hiura will should go.

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