Brewers sign Luke Voit

[MVP2110]

I'm very curious if Voit's deal has an out clause in it because Voit does have 2 options 

[SeaBass]

I like the move. Low risk for a guy that's produced. I don't mark him down too much for slumping after being traded from a contender to a league worst Nationals team at the deadline.

Be nice if he boosted his OBP, don't know his spray chart maybe they see some potential with changes in the shift. Injury insurance too if someone goes down early.

[damuelle]

49 minutes ago, igor67 said:

I did like the article analysis suggesting that aside from platooning for handedness Voit might be a good match to Tellez against certain pitch profiles. Does Huira still have an option?

No, we burned Hiura's third and final option on July 13, 2022 when he was in the midst of a 1.026 OPS stretch (.324 AVG / .432 OBP / .595 SLG) in 44 PAs (12 games) from June 17 through July 10. Of course, the 16 Ks and .500 BABIP during that stretch were frightening, but I fear this was our last glimpse of Hiura having a bit of trade value. Naturally, forfeiting the last option reduced his trade value (and self-confidence?) even further.

[brewmann04]

I wonder if he and Jon have out clauses at some point ? But can’t hurt to have a big bat around 

[damuelle]

RHH Voit's reverse splits are pretty pronounced, with a higher OPS against righties (combining MLB/MILB stats) all 5 seasons from 2018-2022. Hmmm...who does this remind us of?

I can't help but imagine there's a bizarre passive-aggressive dance going on between Counsell and our GMs.

GM: Play Hiura against righties!
C: Never!!!!!!

C: Hiura's on a little hot streak. Trade him!
GM: Never!!!!!! In fact, we'll burn his final option, thus forcing you to have him on your roster NEXT season too!!

C: At least we can save money by not tendering him. Just trade him for scraps like we did with Chase Anderson a few years ago.
GM: We've just guaranteed Hiura a $2.2 million salary for 2023. He WILL be on your Opening Day roster!!!
C: I'll NEVER accept that a major leaguer has reverse splits!
GM: Here, have Luke Voit! 124 OPS+ in 1,838 MLB PAs. MLB home run leader in the 2020 season. Reverse splits for 5 consecutive years! Now you must CHOOSE between Hiura and Voit!!!! Ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!

[Jake McKibbin]

6 minutes ago, damuelle said:

RHH Voit's reverse splits are pretty pronounced, with a higher OPS against righties (combining MLB/MILB stats) all 5 seasons from 2018-2022. Hmmm...who does this remind us of?

I can't help but imagine there's a bizarre passive-aggressive dance going on between Counsell and our GMs.

GM: Play Hiura against righties!
C: Never!!!!!!

C: Hiura's on a little hot streak. Trade him!
GM: Never!!!!!! In fact, we'll burn his final option, thus forcing you to have him on your roster NEXT season too!!

C: At least we can save money by not tendering him. Just trade him for scraps like we did with Chase Anderson a few years ago.
GM: We've just guaranteed Hiura a $2.2 million salary for 2023. He WILL be on your Opening Day roster!!!
C: I'll NEVER accept that a major leaguer has reverse splits!
GM: Here, have Luke Voit! 124 OPS+ in 1,838 MLB PAs. MLB home run leader in the 2020 season. Reverse splits for 5 consecutive years! Now you must CHOOSE between Hiura and Voit!!!! Ha ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!

Hahaha brilliant

I will say at least Voit has some injury related excuse

[CheezWizHed]

I really doubt Voit makes the MLB roster merely based on a "hot spring training".  He is on a MiLB contract and we are using him as depth.  If someone is hurt or traded in ST, then Voit makes the OD roster.  

[DR28]

15 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I really doubt Voit makes the MLB roster merely based on a "hot spring training".  He is on a MiLB contract and we are using him as depth.  If someone is hurt or traded in ST, then Voit makes the OD roster.  

Then we'll most likely lose him, surely he won't accept option to Nashville.

[Jopal78]

31 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I really doubt Voit makes the MLB roster merely based on a "hot spring training".  He is on a MiLB contract and we are using him as depth.  If someone is hurt or traded in ST, then Voit makes the OD roster.  

I don't know about that. His own comments were that he had other NRI deals on the table. I doubt he chose Milwaukee without first having some discussion with team brass that he can actually play his way onto the team in ST.  Secondly, bWAR has Voit at 0.8 last year, and Tellez at 0.9. so the bar is not set incredibly high at 1B. Hiura also had a bWAR of 0.8 last year and saw almost all of his playing time at 1B or DH. Thus, at the very least it's a shot across the bow for Tellez and Hiura because quite to the contrary, its most likely the two with the best Spring Traing out of the three will be the ones that will make the team.  

[Outlander]

2 hours ago, DR28 said:

Then we'll most likely lose him, surely he won't accept option to Nashville.

Why would he have to accept, he has an option and is under 5 years service time.

[DR28]

1 minute ago, Outlander said:

Why would he have to accept, he has an option and is under 5 years service time.

I thought guys are allowed to refuse an option? Maybe not.....

[wiguy94]

 

19 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Why would he have to accept, he has an option and is under 5 years service time.

It's possible he and Naquin have opt-out dates in their contract so if they aren't added to the 40-man/26-man roster by a certain date (end of spring training) then they can opt out and become FA.

[CheezWizHed]

34 minutes ago, DR28 said:

I thought guys are allowed to refuse an option? Maybe not.....

Without looking, I'd guess he has enough service time to decline an option. 

However... he signed a minor league deal.  He isn't on the 40 man roster, so options are a moot point. 

  

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't know about that. His own comments were that he had other NRI deals on the table. I doubt he chose Milwaukee without first having some discussion with team brass that he can actually play his way onto the team in ST.  Secondly, bWAR has Voit at 0.8 last year, and Tellez at 0.9. so the bar is not set incredibly high at 1B. Hiura also had a bWAR of 0.8 last year and saw almost all of his playing time at 1B or DH. Thus, at the very least it's a shot across the bow for Tellez and Hiura because quite to the contrary, its most likely the two with the best Spring Traing out of the three will be the ones that will make the team.  

I don't disagree that the bar is low and this is a good situation for him (probably better than his other options).  But if you are a GM and have the option to keep 3 players (Tellez, Huira, Voit) or cut one of Tellez/Huira just to put someone in that isn't a clear upgrade... why would you cut one?

Now, when Voit's opt-out clause comes on his minor league deal (I'd bet $$ he has one), now you have a more interesting discussion of which of the two you want to keep.  But I really doubt management is going to make the decision prematurely... unless a trade/injury forces it. 

The opening day decision in this case isn't so much about "who is better" but what gives us more flexibility. 

[endaround]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

Then we'll most likely lose him, surely he won't accept option to Nashville.

He signed a minor league contract.  There is no option. Unless he has an opt out date or the Brewers promised to release him, he has no choice.

 

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't know about that. His own comments were that he had other NRI deals on the table. I doubt he chose Milwaukee without first having some discussion with team brass that he can actually play his way onto the team in ST.  Secondly, bWAR has Voit at 0.8 last year, and Tellez at 0.9. so the bar is not set incredibly high at 1B. Hiura also had a bWAR of 0.8 last year and saw almost all of his playing time at 1B or DH. Thus, at the very least it's a shot across the bow for Tellez and Hiura because quite to the contrary, its most likely the two with the best Spring Traing out of the three will be the ones that will make the team.  

Voit had a wrc+ of 102. Hiura had a 115 and Tellez had a 110.  Voit is ZIPS projected at 111, Hiura 115, and Tellez 123. Hiura is 26, Tellez is 28, and Voit is 32.  Voit is very limited in the field. I would not want to make a decision based upon meaningless spring training plate appearances.  Voit may be here more in case Winkler isn't ready to go right away.

[damuelle]

3 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Without looking, I'd guess he has enough service time to decline an option. 

However... he signed a minor league deal.  He isn't on the 40 man roster, so options are a moot point. 

I think Voit is 3 days short of attaining 5 years of service.

And I think that anyone who makes the OD roster gets their salary guaranteed for the year.

Assuming those things are true, the most likely scenario would seem to be to add Voit to the 40-man roster in mid-March, option him to AAA to start the year, then add him to the MLB club during the season with the hope that he can stick for good.

[CheezWizHed]

1 minute ago, damuelle said:

I think Voit is 3 days short of attaining 5 years of service.

And I think that anyone who makes the OD roster gets their salary guaranteed for the year.

Assuming those things are true, the most likely scenario would seem to be to add Voit to the 40-man roster in mid-March, option him to AAA to start the year, then add him to the MLB club during the season with the hope that he can stick for good.

Why add him to the 40 man in mid March only to send him to the minors?  He is on a minor league deal right now.  They can send him to the minors until his contract opt out date (i.e. often June 1). 

40 man roster spots are gold.  You don't add someone until you need to.

[damuelle]

2 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Why add him to the 40 man in mid March only to send him to the minors?  He is on a minor league deal right now.  They can send him to the minors until his contract opt out date (i.e. often June 1). 

40 man roster spots are gold.  You don't add someone until you need to.

Voit would likely exercise a spring training opt-out if we don’t add him to the 40-man roster by an agreed date. Same reason we added Travis Shaw in March 2021 and were going to add Wade Miley in March 2018 before he suffered a late Spring injury and we agreed on an alternative plan.

[MVP2110]

Not knowing when(or if) Voit has an opt out day makes this tough to predict. But yes if Voit is added to the 40 man they can option to minors, he doesn't have enough service time to decline an option at the moment

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

  But if you are a GM and have the option to keep 3 players (Tellez, Huira, Voit) or cut one of Tellez/Huira just to put someone in that isn't a clear upgrade... why would you cut one?

 

 

1 hour ago, endaround said:

Voit had a wrc+ of 102. Hiura had a 115 and Tellez had a 110.  Voit is ZIPS projected at 111, Hiura 115, and Tellez 123. Hiura is 26, Tellez is 28, and Voit is 32.  Voit is very limited in the field. I would not want to make a decision based upon meaningless spring training plate appearances.  

Tellez and Voit essentially had about the same production in ‘22. Hiura’s metrics were similar but in about half as many PAs. Voit is older but has had the best career out of the three. 

The reality is Tellez is under control for this year and next, and Voit is as well. Hiura is obliged to the Brewers through ‘25. They’re basically all short term pieces,. With this likely being the last dance for this group of Brewers, they’re likely to go with whomever they feel gives them the best chance to win in ‘23. The Brewers always seem to make a trade on the eve of the season and the odd man out is probably peddled.

As for meaningless Spring Training games there is a player nearly every year who comes out of nowhere to makes the team based on their ST performance. It may not be indicative of future performance but it matters in evaluating who they start the season with. 

[Robocaller]

On 2/21/2023 at 10:09 AM, Jopal78 said:

I say that because while Tellez blasts homers, he doesn't really do anything else. He was terrible in the field, he wasn't skilled at getting on base. Despite 35 homers he was marginally better than replacement level. With his stats, and the Brewers having a lot of players who can play 1B, I just don't think Tellez is as cemented in as a regular as some think. 

 

You don't understand what "replacement level" means.

 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You don't understand what "replacement level" means.

 

Guess not, but bWAR for Tellez was .9 in ‘22. Fangraphs had him at .8.

More likely than not,  you don’t know the definition of the word marginally.

[CheezWizHed]

On 2/22/2023 at 4:23 PM, damuelle said:

Voit would likely exercise a spring training opt-out if we don’t add him to the 40-man roster by an agreed date. Same reason we added Travis Shaw in March 2021 and were going to add Wade Miley in March 2018 before he suffered a late Spring injury and we agreed on an alternative plan.

Yeah, we are assuming different opt out dates, but your assumption is true then it is possible they do that.  Frankly, I hadn't thought about an opt-out in ST, but that is possible.

[Robocaller]

On 2/23/2023 at 7:53 AM, Jopal78 said:

Guess not, but bWAR for Tellez was .9 in ‘22. Fangraphs had him at .8.

More likely than not,  you don’t know the definition of the word marginally.

Nope, that's not it.

 

[bensheeps]

This article states that a decision on Voit may be coming sooner rather than later.

Quote

Except Voit is no roster lock. He can trigger an opt-out next Thursday if he is not put on the 40-man roster by that point. 

https://nypost.com/2023/03/08/luke-voit-may-have-overachieved-in-yankees-tenure/