Article: Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers '23 - #39 Corbin Burnes

[Adam Rygg]

Baseball is a game of round numbers and milestones. Somehow, some way, 39 feels so much closer to Opening Day than 40. Brewers By the (Jersey) Numbers has reached the 30s, as one month away is suddenly appearing over the crest of the hill ahead.

An unfortunate thing happened on the way to the laptop over the past 12 days. I didn't write any BBtJN pieces!

With apologies to #43 Ethan Small, #41 Jason Alexander, #49 Thyago Vieira, #46 Bryse Wilson, #45 Thomas Pannone, and even #48 Colin Rea, life got in the way. I had some water damage in my kitchen due to a leaking dishwasher (resulting in contractors coming over for quotes, dealing with insurance adjustors, getting the damage cleaned up), my day job had a lot of situations pop up, and some business in my side gig and a few other things, I didn't have a lot of time during the 40s this year.

Normally all these players would be deserving of a profile, as four of them are new (or returning) to the organization and two made MLB debuts in 2022. Even with my time constraints, I still tried to write up Small and Alexander, but I couldn't do the Small piece well enough and the Alexander piece was nearly written when the news of his injury broke and I decided not to bother rewriting it to include his health update.

If I find time in a week or so, I might try to fire off a supplemental entry in BBtJN to give a brief update and outlook on each of the players I missed. If I do that, it'll be over at my blog and I'll share a link to the post on Twitter.

But I digress.

You're not here to read about any of those players. If you clicked on this link, you're looking for my thoughts on...

Corbin Burnes.

Photo credit: © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Now 28 years old, Corbin Brian Burnes enters the 2023 season two years away from free agency and huge annual salaries. Where those dollars will be coming from has been the subject of speculation among Brewers fans ever since Burnes decided to emerge from a trip to the Crew's pitching lab as one of the best starters in the sport.

By now, you know the story. Burnes debuted as a reliever in 2018 and was ridiculous. In 30 games that season for the Brewers, he won seven games, lost none, and posted a 2.61 ERA in 38.0 innings. Another six postseason appearances that year saw him post a 1-0 record with a 2.00 ERA in 9.0 innings.

A star was seemingly born, but as good as 2018 was, 2019 was the stuff of nightmares. Thirty-two games, four starts, 49.0 IP, 70 H, 52 R (48 ER), 17 HR, 20 BB, 70 K. All told, that was "good" for a 8.82 ERA and a 51 ERA+. It was so ugly that Burnes was given a break to sort things out.

There was enough coverage about 2019 eventually that I needn't rehash everything here, but suffice it to say that Burnes would indeed sort things out.

2020's COVID-shortened season saw Burnes appear in 12 games, nine of them starts, and post vastly improved numbers, both results and peripherals. The next year saw the quick culmination of all the work, effort, and improvements for Burnes. He opened the season by setting an MLB record for innings pitched without allowing a walk, and finished the year as the National League's Cy Young Award winner.

Last season proved that 2021 was no fluke. This is a legitimate ace pitcher in the league, one worthy of huge dollars. Let the countdown to his free agency begin in earnest.

Burnes' combined stats over the past three seasons:

73 G, 70 GS, 426.2 IP, 2.64 ERA, 304 H, 135 R (125 ER), 32 HR, 109 BB, 565 K

Of note, 23 of those home runs came in 2022, as did 51 of the walks. Despite those stats suffering from similar inflation levels as the country, Burnes still kept his 2022 ERA under 3.00 at 2.94. And even that number includes a stretch from August 18th through September 19th which saw Burnes post totals of 41.2 IP and 29 runs allowed with 26 earned runs for a 5.62 ERA over the month and a day. Of course, that stretch included a 8.0 IP, 3 H, ER, 0 BB, 14 K start against the San Francisco Giants at American Family Field.

A sampling of Burnes' accolades in 2022:

• Became the Brewers franchise leader in double-digit strikeout games
  • Finished the season with 21 such games in his career
• Selected to his second All-Star Game
• Became the first Milwaukee Brewer to lead the National League in strikeouts (243)
• Had the winning decision as Craig Counsell became the Brewers' all-time leader in managerial wins
• Named the #1 Starting Pitcher in MLB entering 2023 by MLB Network

Contract Status: Burnes' one-year contract for 2023 was arbitrated to be at a value of $10.01 million. Much has been written on the subject, including a breakdown of the fallout surrounding the arbitration hearing by our own Matt Trueblood.

2023 Outlook: Honestly, 2023 should give us more of what we've come to expect from Corbin Burnes. He'll often be dominant, typically be quality, and occasionally be stricken with a hiccup along the way. After all, he may be the best in the game, but nobody is perfect.

As with all predictions, this carries the "so long as he's healthy" caveat, but I would expect Burnes is good for another 30+ starts, 200+ innings, and 200+ strikeouts. He's the epitome of a starting pitcher in this league right now.

That's worth paying for, by whomever his employer is.

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Catch up on BBtJN '23!

#55 Hoby Milner
#54 Jake Cousins
#53 Brandon Woodruff
#52 Eric Lauer
#51 Freddy Peralta

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[Brock Beauchamp]

I've seen several people, particularly on Twitter, claim that Burnes is the best pitcher in Brewers history (some saying it's not close).

Is this a common thought? I don't buy it one bit. I think Burnes has the potential to become the best pitcher in Brewers history but Burnes has been an elite starter in one season and an extremely good starter in another.

If he replicates 2022 in 2023-4 (or is even better), sure, he's the best in Brewers history. But as of right now, I don't see him with a clear advantage over Sheets or Higuera. Maybe that's just me.

[sveumrules]

By career numbers. Burnes isn’t a slam dunk over even Woodruff right now…

Sheets: 1428 IP | 87 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 26.7 rWAR | 31.9 fWAR

Higuera: 1380 IP | 86 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 27.4 rWAR | 26.7 fWAR

Burnes: 515 IP | 76 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 14.3 fWAR

Woody: 613 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 16.3 rWAR | 14.6 fWAR

On a per inning basis, sure Corbin is the best, but his quantity is just too far behind Sheets/Higuera for me to put him in the #1 spot.

Even by peak season I’m not sure he comes out ahead of Higuera or Sheets…

86 Higuera: 248 IP | 66 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 7.9 rWAR | 5.1 fWAR

04 Sheets: 237 IP | 62 ERA- | 59 FIP- |  7.0 rWAR | 8.0 fWAR

21 Burnes: 167 IP | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- | 6.3 rWAR | 7.5 fWAR

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I've seen several people, particularly on Twitter, claim that Burnes is the best pitcher in Brewers history (some saying it's not close).

Is this a common thought? I don't buy it one bit. I think Burnes has the potential to become the best pitcher in Brewers history but Burnes has been an elite starter in one season and an extremely good starter in another.

If he replicates 2022 in 2023-4 (or is even better), sure, he's the best in Brewers history. But as of right now, I don't see him with a clear advantage over Sheets or Higuera. Maybe that's just me.

The 2020-2022 version of Burnes is definitely the best peak of a pitcher in the Brewers history, but yeah he needs another season or two at that level to make up for the huge volume that Sheets and Higuera have over him. For all we know Woodruff could pitch better than Burnes this year and next and stake the claim as the best pitcher in franchise history. 
 

Would still argue that 2021 Burnes was the best season in franchise history with 2004 Sheets as a close runner up. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I've seen several people, particularly on Twitter, claim that Burnes is the best pitcher in Brewers history (some saying it's not close).

Is this a common thought? I don't buy it one bit. I think Burnes has the potential to become the best pitcher in Brewers history but Burnes has been an elite starter in one season and an extremely good starter in another.

If he replicates 2022 in 2023-4 (or is even better), sure, he's the best in Brewers history. But as of right now, I don't see him with a clear advantage over Sheets or Higuera. Maybe that's just me.

I think it's only even mentioned because the Brewers have such a funny history when it comes to pitching. The first 30 years of the franchise were so chock-full of these guys who just pitched to contact and chewed up innings. Wegman, and Caldwell, and Haas, and Slaton... 

But yeah, it's weird. Higuera and Sheets are way, way ahead for me. To believe Burnes is the best-ever Brewers SP requires you to also acclaim Jacob deGrom as the greatest pitcher of our generation, I feel, which is nuts. Pitching is SO MUCH about availability that you can't just award a superlative on the basis of per-inning or per-batter excellence.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I think it's only even mentioned because the Brewers have such a funny history when it comes to pitching. The first 30 years of the franchise were so chock-full of these guys who just pitched to contact and chewed up innings. Wegman, and Caldwell, and Haas, and Slaton... 

But yeah, it's weird. Higuera and Sheets are way, way ahead for me. To believe Burnes is the best-ever Brewers SP requires you to also acclaim Jacob deGrom as the greatest pitcher of our generation, I feel, which is nuts. Pitching is SO MUCH about availability that you can't just award a superlative on the basis of per-inning or per-batter excellence.

Yep, that’s about the way I see it too. 

[Brewcrew82]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I've seen several people, particularly on Twitter, claim that Burnes is the best pitcher in Brewers history (some saying it's not close).

Is this a common thought? I don't buy it one bit. I think Burnes has the potential to become the best pitcher in Brewers history but Burnes has been an elite starter in one season and an extremely good starter in another.

If he replicates 2022 in 2023-4 (or is even better), sure, he's the best in Brewers history. But as of right now, I don't see him with a clear advantage over Sheets or Higuera. Maybe that's just me.

I think it’s fair to say that he’s already the most DOMINANT pitcher in franchise history. Since 2020, he’s been the best pitcher in baseball by fWAR. And then, during his CY season of 2021, he put up the second lowest FIP of the modern era, after Pedro’s 1999 season (aka the greatest single season by a pitcher in MLB history). 

Neither Sheets nor Higuera can replicate that….

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think it’s fair to say that he’s already the most DOMINANT pitcher in franchise history. Since 2020, he’s been the best pitcher in baseball by fWAR. And then, during his CY season of 2021, he put up the second lowest FIP of the modern era, after Pedro’s 1999 season (aka the greatest single season by a pitcher in MLB history). 

Neither Sheets nor Higuera can replicate that….

Burnes couldn't replicate it either.

20/21: 226 IP | 55 ERA- | 40 FIP- | 9.7 rWAR | 9.9 fWAR
2022: 202 IP | 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- | 5.3 rWAR | 4.6 fWAR

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Burnes couldn't replicate it either.

20/21: 226 IP | 55 ERA- | 40 FIP- | 9.7 rWAR | 9.9 fWAR
2022: 202 IP | 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- | 5.3 rWAR | 4.6 fWAR

But, who's put up the most fWAR by a pitcher in MLB during that overall timeframe, and is number 1 in virtually every major pitching category?

That's what I mean when I say he's already the most DOMINANT pitcher in franchise history. Last year, he tailed off in the second half, likely due to going significantly over his career high in innings. But, over this three year stretch since the pandemic and his development of his cutter, he's simply been the best pitcher in baseball, including putting up the second best season by FIP in the modern era. 

Sheets and Higuera never had a stretch as dominant as that, let alone picked up a Cy Young Award (though Higuera did finish 2nd behind Clemens in 1986 and Sheets should have finished higher in 2004). 

[sveumrules]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

But, who's put up the most fWAR by a pitcher in MLB during that overall timeframe, and is number 1 in virtually every major pitching category?

That's what I mean when I say he's already the most DOMINANT pitcher in franchise history. Last year, he tailed off in the second half, likely due to going significantly over his career high in innings. But, over this three year stretch since the pandemic and his development of his cutter, he's simply been the best pitcher in baseball, including putting up the second best season by FIP in the modern era. 

Sheets and Higuera never had a stretch as dominant as that, let alone picked up a Cy Young Award (though Higuera did finish 2nd behind Clemens in 1986 and Sheets should have finished higher in 2004). 

For a single season I’d still have 04 Benny with 237 IP | 62 ERA- | 59 FIP- |  7.0 rWAR | 8.0 fWAR as more dominant than 21 Burnes at 167 IP | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- | 6.3 rWAR | 7.5 fWAR.

Corbin had the historic FIP, but Benny threw 70 more IP which gives him the edge in both flavors of WAR.

Burnes rate stats also benefitted from the luxury of being pulled early because of the dominant pen behind him, Sheets had to be the dominant pen himself.

No doubt, Burnes is the best pitcher in MLB over the last three seasons at 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR, but if we’re talking multi year runs of dominance 1986-88 Higuera came in at 737 IP | 71 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 21.5 rWAR | 17.7 fWAR.

Teddy was “only” the 2nd best pitcher in baseball behind Roger Clemens for those three full seasons & not as good on a per inning basis as Corbin, but doing it for 300+ additional frames makes it a more dominant run for me as of now. I’d prolly put Burnes ahead with one more CY calibre season though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think it’s fair to say that he’s already the most DOMINANT pitcher in franchise history. Since 2020, he’s been the best pitcher in baseball by fWAR. And then, during his CY season of 2021, he put up the second lowest FIP of the modern era, after Pedro’s 1999 season (aka the greatest single season by a pitcher in MLB history). 

Neither Sheets nor Higuera can replicate that….

That’s a fair way to look at it.