With an Eye on July, Brewers Sign Left-Handed Reliever Justin Wilson

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Milwaukee Brewers like to maintain leverage and keep their options open, and by adding one potential second-half bullpen contributor now via free agency, they've decreased (if only slightly) the chances that they'll have to trade from their farm depth to acquire another at midseason. Justin Wilson is a good fit, if he can get healthy and on track.

Image courtesy of © Kareem Elgazzar via Imagn Content Services, LLC

If one player can be considered the model of the modern journeyman southpaw, it might be Justin Wilson. He's pitched for six teams in his 11 seasons, and the volatility of his performance has matched that of his employment. When right, he's dominant, with a high=spin, mid-90s fastball, a sharp cutter that misses barrels, and a slider that misses bats altogether. When off, he's helpless, unable to throw strikes consistently or get enough whiffs to keep the walks from coming back to haunt him.

Now, he faces a new vector of challenge in finding consistent success. He'd dealt with minor shoulder inflammation and more serious hamstring trouble in 2021, but last April, he tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow while pitching for the Reds, and though he tried other options, he went under the knife in early June. Relievers can sometimes return as little as 12 months after Tommy John surgery, but given that Wilson will turn 36 this August and has never been a paragon of command and control, mid- to late July is the earliest anyone should expect to see him on the mound for the Brewers. Matt Arnold is already thinking along those same lines.

"Those are the kinds of guys you're looking for at the trade deadline, so we figured we'd get in front of it and bring a guy in now and have him be part of our team the whole way," Arnold said to reporters, including MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. 

What Arnold didn't say, but which is clearly an important point, is that the preference there is partially about being able to get Wilson for mere cash, as opposed to having to trade someone the team might like quite a bit to land an impact reliever in July. What he even more pointedly didn't say, though, is that there's a reason why teams are always trying to acquire relievers so fervently at the deadline, but not so much in December. It's the same volatility that defines Wilson's career. You pay for the hot reliever at the deadline, because it's very hard to tell who's going to be hot down the stretch of the coming season during the winter. 

By adding Wilson now, then, the Brewers are taking on some risk, unless the deal has no impact whatsoever on their budget for 2023. Signing Wilson saves you a possible prospect but could cost you an opportunity to acquire someone in whom you'd have more confidence in late July. It's a bit like the reverse of the Trevor Rosenthal deal from last summer, and then again, it's a bit like a repeat of it. 

In the short term, though, the deal makes easy sense. The team moved Jason Alexander to the 60-day injured list to make room for Wilson, and when next they need to open up a roster spot, they can move Wilson there, too. They also have a club option for 2024, which is common on contracts like this one. For the protection and rehab aid that comes with being part of a big-league organization, a player allows the team to capture some of the upside of a return to healthy form.

Performance-wise, the thing to watch with Wilson will be his slider. When he has command of it and is able to set it up well with his other offerings, he really is solid. When that pitch goes missing, everything gets messy. That last clause still represents one possible outcome for the Brewers' 2023 bullpen, but with Wilson as a plausible complement to Hoby Milner late in the year, they did get just a little bit deeper on Saturday.

View full article

[damuelle]

With LHPs Ashby and Wilson on the shelf early in the year, we’ll have to keep a close eye on Ethan Small, Thomas Pannone and Alex Claudio in spring training and AAA ball, as any of them could easily see an early-season call-up if there’s an injury to Lauer, Miley or Milner.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I didn't realize this contract included a team option for 2024, which makes way more sense than what I initially thought was a two month offer on a pitcher with control issues coming back from a surgery that often hampers control for several months.