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Is Mark A positioning the Brewers for a sale?


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I brought it up as an aside in the Burnes arbitration thread but something like this is worthy of a discussion of its own. Something hasn't been adding up with the Brewers for awhile now and I believe what makes the most sense is that Mark Attanasio is positioning the team to be put up for sale. No long term, large money contracts signed since Yelich's extension nearly 3 years ago. Whispers that Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames haven't even been approached about extending. A payroll down nearly 30 million from 2019, when the Brewers were coming off a season that brought them 1 win away from a World Series, with Jhoulys Chacin leading the staff. Mark even indicated at that time and many times since that with a payroll north of $130 million that there was room to spend more for the right pieces. Well, what's better than 2 co-aces, the top closer in the game, and strong complimentary pitching? Yet, payroll has declined since, down another 8 million from last year, set to begin 2023 at $104 million. Really? With Burnes and Woodruff anchoring a starting pitching staff the likes rarely seen around here? Combined with Stearns stepping down, the weird uncertainty with Counsell, and growing unrest amongst players which we never heard in year's past. I'm sure people can claim that this is all due to Covid and local TV money issues throwing the team budget into ruins. But perhaps Covid and/or failed cryptocurrency investments have actually led to Mark A wanting out?

Now, we have this push to have the state spend the money necessary to upgrade and maintain AmFam Field in exchange for an extended lease. Without even getting into the right or wrong of that, how much more attractive is this team as an asset if the stadium is upgraded and its life extended with public funds. Add in a slew of cheap young hitting prospects, the prospects to come when Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, get dealt, no bad contracts aside from Yelich, and it amounts to just about the best possible time to sell.

I predict that the majority of the team's top prospects will be held even if the team is in the thick of the race this year. Maybe an excess OF prospect from the top 10 gets dealt, but no one else of significance is dealt for a major piece. I see no large money, long term extensions handed out. I see all 3 of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames being dealt in the next 12-15 months. And I see an agreement reached with the state to improve and refurbish AmFam. This should all play out in the next 2 years or less, which also leaves just 4 years left on the Yelich deal and no other major money committed. That would bring us to 2025 with a stable stadium situation, hopefully some young exciting cheap hitting stars, an end to the Yelich deal in sight, all on the back of a string of seasons dating back to 2018 when the team was competitive year in and year out. I expect Mark A to have the team either sold or on the block by Spring of 2025. Possibly even by this time next year.

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Not sure where the $104M is coming from, Roster Resource has us at $120M and Cots $115M.

Either way, 2019 isn’t any kind of baseline, it was always going to be an outlier due to the weirdly soft market plopping Yaz & Moose on our doorstep for one year deals.

There weren’t many deals like that in this year’s market.

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A stable stadium situation attracts buyers who would want to keep the team in it's current location.  It eliminates buyers who would want to move the team.  From an the current owners perspective, I am not sure it helps to have a stable stadium situation if you are looking to maximize profits.  On the other hand, if you are trying to sell and commit to having the team stay you want that stable stadium situation.  From what I read here lately Mark A is cheep and only wants to maximize his profit.

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It's certainly a plausible theory, but I get the impression that Mark enjoys owning the team and doesn't want to cash out. Although maybe he has grown frustrated by the inability to compete in baseball's economic landscape. The revenue situation right now is not pretty to say the least, with the Brewers falling farther and farther behind the bigger markets. 

I think the more likely explanation is that after the Yelich contract blew up in their faces they have decided not to sign any more long term contracts and plan to run the operation a bit leaner. More like how Tampa operates. Or perhaps prepping for a 'rebuild' is the better way to think of it. 

The Hader trade was the first indication of that, the lack of interest in signing our other assets indicates they are getting ready to trade them as well and go with the younger core. 

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I think the "continually competitive" mantra is what's behind the personnel moves, not a desire to sell. To remain "continually competitive" in a small market, you need a constant influx of young, cheap talent, which is hard to do if you continually trade your prospects away for short-term players.

As to the payroll, @sveumrules mentioned this, but Cot's has 2019's opening day payroll at $122,530,400, and this year's opening day payroll at $114,745,000. I would guess that with last year's lower ticket sales, they're being cautious going into this year. If ticket sales bounce back, then they should have money for a mid-season pick-up.

I'm personally glad we don't have a bunch of high-priced, long-term contracts on the books, but expect that the team will offer early extensions to the prospects as they hit the majors, as they did with Ashby and Peralta. Those contracts are much more palatable to a smaller-revenue team than big free agent signings. If you can get your core players signed on long-term extensions early, than you only need free agency to fill in the holes, meaning one- or two-year deals that have a lot less risk to them.

If Attanasio wants to sell the team, he'll have a long list of people who would love to buy them. Finding buyers is not a problem. The best way to get top dollar is to have a team that continually puts out a winner while operating in a financially sound way, and I think that's what the Brewers have been doing.

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If the angels couldnt find a buyer, I doubt Milwaukee could right now or in the near future.  

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Posted: July 10, 2014, 12:30 AM

PrinceFielderx1 Said:

If the Brewers don't win the division I should be banned. However, they will.

 

Last visited: September 03, 2014, 7:10 PM

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2 minutes ago, torts said:

If the angels couldnt find a buyer, I doubt Milwaukee could right now or in the near future.  

You forgot the important part. The Angels couldn't find a buyer for their asking price of $3 billion. 

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People need to put on their financial thinking caps. The owners equity in the Brewers is already through the roof and only going higher as the price to own a pro basbeall team has exploded..
 

The owner could literally become a philanthropist and give away every single dollar he has, then bequeath the team to his children and die knowing he set them up for generational wealth.

If you own a baseball team and are a finance guru, you know now is not the time to sell it as the prices keep going up up and up. That would be like dumping Apple stock after the iPod but before the iPhone came out.

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13 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

People need to put on their financial thinking caps. The owners equity in the Brewers is already through the roof and only going higher as the price to own a pro basbeall team has exploded..
 

The owner could literally become a philanthropist and give away every single dollar he has, then bequeath the team to his children and die knowing he set them up for generational wealth.

If you own a baseball team and are a finance guru, you know now is not the time to sell it as the prices keep going up up and up. That would be like dumping Apple stock after the iPod but before the iPhone came out.

Yea overall I would agree and that most likely is the case.    However, I could see some risk or at least a devil's advocate to thinking there could be a tipping point.  No need to get too in depth but will throw out a few bullet points. 

First, these values are largely driven by TV contracts. With the shifting media landscape going away from TV along with young people not watching baseball will their TV contracts eventually go down/level/etc.  If one thinks that could happen like 10 years from now (again young people are not that into baseball) then you could be selling high.    

Just in general the declining interest in baseball by young people could have one thinking a peak could be soon. Throw in MKEs decline in attendance and maybe he thinks that's possible.    Third, if he thinks the long feared recession will finally happen and wants to sell before it does.  Fourth, 60 some year old guy wants to liquidate the money for other investments or whatever he wants to do, or maybe he needs to liquidate for other unknown reasons.

Again, I'd still side with you.   Just saying, at some point in the future some owners are going to end up overpaying for franchises.  But, like you, I don't think that's coming anytime soon.     

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11 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

I don’t have a link but my recollection is that Mark had said his plan is for his kids to get the team some day. 

You would be correct. One son in particular that he has said is a bit more interested/involved in things and wants to have the team someday. He is actually at games fairly often. Maybe it doesn’t happen, but literally everything Attanasio says and does points to him enjoying baseball and being an owner. Our payroll is only as high as it is because Attanasio legitimately enjoys the team and likes seeing a competitive team. I have no doubt a different owner would be much worse circumstances across the board.

This article is one of the biggest reaches in forum history.

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15 hours ago, jerichoholicninja said:

I would guess any speculation about this is coming from the crowd that's been shouting about how cheap he is and therefore want a new owner who will "try to win".

Yup. Meanwhile Brewers have won the 6th most games over the last 5 years, 8th most over the last 15, apparently on accident because Mark A is too cheap or doesn’t wear big boy pants or whatever.

Reality is, even if we did get a new owner odds are they would prolly end up more like Nutting, Castellini, Monfort, Sherman, Fisher, Dolan, Sternberg, Kendrick, Moreno etc than some kind of white knight willing to throw around their cash like Cohen or Seidler.

Look at the Twins just up the road. They  are a larger market, with a way richer owner (like $3.5B vs $700M), in an equally mediocre division. Yet they still run payrolls in the teens/twenties, have won fewer regular season games than the Brewers (13th last 5, 19th last 15) and haven’t won a playoff game since 2004.

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14 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

I don’t have a link but my recollection is that Mark had said his plan is for his kids to get the team some day. 

This 2019 article is behind a paywall, but confirms your post:

https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2019/03/29/mark-attanasio-discusses-brewers-ownership.html

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16 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yea overall I would agree and that most likely is the case.    However, I could see some risk or at least a devil's advocate to thinking there could be a tipping point.  No need to get too in depth but will throw out a few bullet points. 

First, these values are largely driven by TV contracts. With the shifting media landscape going away from TV along with young people not watching baseball will their TV contracts eventually go down/level/etc.  If one thinks that could happen like 10 years from now (again young people are not that into baseball) then you could be selling high.    

Just in general the declining interest in baseball by young people could have one thinking a peak could be soon. Throw in MKEs decline in attendance and maybe he thinks that's possible.    Third, if he thinks the long feared recession will finally happen and wants to sell before it does.  Fourth, 60 some year old guy wants to liquidate the money for other investments or whatever he wants to do, or maybe he needs to liquidate for other unknown reasons.

Again, I'd still side with you.   Just saying, at some point in the future some owners are going to end up overpaying for franchises.  But, like you, I don't think that's coming anytime soon.     

I think everything you've described here might cause team valuations to merely climb instead of shoot upward like a rocket as they've done for the past several decades. Given the extremely limited supply of professional sports organizations, I don't see prices even stagnating for the foreseeable future.

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1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think everything you've described here might cause team valuations to merely climb instead of shoot upward like a rocket as they've done for the past several decades. Given the extremely limited supply of professional sports organizations, I don't see prices even stagnating for the foreseeable future.

If Attanasio wants the Brewers to be an asset for his children, he is going to look for people who can make this team a long-term success on the field and on the balance sheet. I anticipate there is a shift in philosophy coming to put that into motion.

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7 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

If Attanasio wants the Brewers to be an asset for his children, he is going to look for people who can make this team a long-term success on the field and on the balance sheet. I anticipate there is a shift in philosophy coming to put that into motion.

The best way to accomplish that is to find about 20 other owners, agree on systemic changes to the economics of the game, and vote for that change.

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4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

You would be correct. One son in particular that he has said is a bit more interested/involved in things and wants to have the team someday. He is actually at games fairly often. Maybe it doesn’t happen, but literally everything Attanasio says and does points to him enjoying baseball and being an owner. Our payroll is only as high as it is because Attanasio legitimately enjoys the team and likes seeing a competitive team. I have no doubt a different owner would be much worse circumstances across the board.

This article is one of the biggest reaches in forum history.

Not an article, just my own personal prediction looking at things through the lens of a businessman. This will be a fun one to circle back to if I end up being right though.

And yes, I'm fully aware of things Mark A has said in the past regarding his wishes for the future and passing things on to his children. I also notice some things that jump out to me as changes in his behavior. I sense circumstances that may have changed those plans.

Two additional items to chew on. 1) Mark Attanasio used to be widely embraced and revered by this fanbase. Now it seems 50/50, love him or hate him. Don't discount how much that can wear on someone over time. 2) Mark has begun buying ownership stakes in other sports teams. That could be nothing. But it could also be a pivot to something else to continue to buy additional stakes in to pass down in the family.

There's no need for vitriol towards myself. I simply threw it out there as an observation and a prediction. I didn't declare it to be any kind of inside knowledge or try to browbeat anyone into agreeing with me. Just want it on the record and was curious if anyone else had similar thoughts. 

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So the Ballys  nearing bankruptcy isn't going to be mentioned? Think what I recently read is they've missed a 192Mil payment and bankruptcy would add on to missing payments. I don't know what the Brewers cut is on that deal year to year but that's a solid reason to withhold overextending your expenses til there's clarity. Also just had 11 players go through Arbitration.  You also see the Chourio hype, the other 3 OFs, you have to believe they are setting aside money to buy out their team control. Maybe it's Devin Williams who gets the next large amount extension at a RP price they could handle.  

Keep the faith. All it takes is one extension to put away this thinking.

 

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38 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

So the Ballys  nearing bankruptcy isn't going to be mentioned? Think what I recently read is they've missed a 192Mil payment and bankruptcy would add on to missing payments. I don't know what the Brewers cut is on that deal year to year but that's a solid reason to withhold overextending your expenses til there's clarity. Also just had 11 players go through Arbitration.  You also see the Chourio hype, the other 3 OFs, you have to believe they are setting aside money to buy out their team control. Maybe it's Devin Williams who gets the next large amount extension at a RP price they could handle.  

Keep the faith. All it takes is one extension to put away this thinking.

 

I believe Bally’s missed an interest payment of its loans to buy the networks, not payments of tv rights. 

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Our payroll hasn’t even changed that much, I honestly don’t know why people are still running with that. Also, aren’t people comparing an end of 2022 payroll to a not even start of 2023 payroll? If we are competing we would surely add at the deadline. 

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50 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Our payroll hasn’t even changed that much

Correct. Here are the full season OD payrolls (with MLB rank) from the last fifteen years…

2023: $115M (20th)
2022
: $132M (19th) 
2021: $99M (19th) 
2019: $123M (17th) 
2018: $99M (26th
2017: $63M (30th) 
2016: $64M (30th) 
2015: $104M (20th) 
2014: $104M (16th) 
2013: $89M (19th) 
2012: $98M (13th)
2011: $84M (17th)
2010: $90M (17th)
2009: $80M (17th)
2008: $81M (15th) 

Outside of sneaking into the bottom of the top half twice (2008, 2014) and running payrolls in line with their market size for three years from 2016-18, they’ve been between 16th and 20th in OD payroll the other ten years.

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10 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Correct. Here are the full season OD payrolls (with MLB rank) from the last fifteen years…

2023: $115M (20th)
2022: $132M (19th) 
2021: $99M (19th) 
2019: $123M (17th) 
2018: $99M (26th) 
2017: $63M (30th) 
2016: $64M (30th) 
2015: $104M (20th) 
2014: $104M (16th) 
2013: $89M (19th) 
2012: $98M (13th)
2011: $84M (17th)
2010: $90M (17th)
2009: $80M (17th)
2008: $81M (15th) 

Outside of sneaking into the bottom of the top half twice (2008, 2014) and running payrolls in line with their market size for three years from 2016-18, they’ve been between 16th and 20th in OD payroll the other ten years.

This is why I don't get the complaints about the Brewers spending. They're the smallest population market in baseball, right? And that team coming in with a 15-20 payroll routinely speaks to the broken economics of baseball, not anything the Brewers are doing wrong. If anything, I'm often a little irritated at the Twins for running a payroll so similar to the Brewers despite having 1m+ more people in the metro area.

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  • Why is payroll down from last year?
  • Who is replacing 2 of the top 3 spots in the bullpen pecking order? (Hader/Rogers and Boxberger) Names can be offered up but are they realistic or just wishful?
  • How was the savings from not having to pay Hader his projected $14 million reallocated elsewhere?
  • Did Stearns step down because he was told payroll had to be cut?
  • Is the recent backlash from various players (Burnes, Lauer, Cain) a result of players feeling betrayed by the Brewers not spending more to win in this competitive window?

Some more musings going through my mind now that camp is underway and the "there's still plenty of time before the season" narrative is evaporating. I was one of those posters who would say that when people were lamenting the lack of moves in Januarys past. I look back at this past offseason and believe that not only was there no intent to add payroll, I now believe the mandate was to cut salary no matter what. To do so in this competitive window with Burns and Woodruff atop the rotation is a stark departure from the way Attanasio has operated in the past. Something has changed.

 

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10 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:
  • Why is payroll down from last year?
  • Who is replacing 2 of the top 3 spots in the bullpen pecking order? (Hader/Rogers and Boxberger) Names can be offered up but are they realistic or just wishful?
  • How was the savings from not having to pay Hader his projected $14 million reallocated elsewhere?
  • Did Stearns step down because he was told payroll had to be cut?
  • Is the recent backlash from various players (Burnes, Lauer, Cain) a result of players feeling betrayed by the Brewers not spending more to win in this competitive window?

Some more musings going through my mind now that camp is underway and the "there's still plenty of time before the season" narrative is evaporating. I was one of those posters who would say that when people were lamenting the lack of moves in Januarys past. I look back at this past offseason and believe that not only was there no intent to add payroll, I now believe the mandate was to cut salary no matter what. To do so in this competitive window with Burns and Woodruff atop the rotation is a stark departure from the way Attanasio has operated in the past. Something has changed.

 

Yeah, down attendance and Diamond going bankrupt. Most of the Diamond customers also with lower payrolls.

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