Article: Should the Brewers Extend Rowdy Tellez?

[clancyphile]

In theory, first base is an easy position to fill. But theory and practice don’t always mesh.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

However, since Prince Fielder left the Brewers as a free agent following the 2011 season, the team has had a revolving door at first base. Only Eric Thames was the primary starter at the position for more than one season, per Baseball Reference. Not exactly the model of consistency you want to see, is it?

Brewersfarm, an Instagram account following the Brewers farm system, lists Ernesto Martinez and Jesus Chirinos as the top two options for the position in the system, followed by Wes Clarke. None of the players listed will be above AA, per the Brewersfarm projections. Assuming full years at AA and AAA, the Brewers might see these players’ rookie seasons just as they have a gaping hole at first.

Now, I’ve discussed Martinez and Chirinos when discussing prospects that are more under the radar. Still, proven help at first base for the long term is a question mark, partially because Martinez has missed time with injury, while Chirinos seemed to have a power outage in the Venezuelan Winter League. So, there are some big question marks in the system.

It doesn’t have to be that way, though. Rowdy Tellez, acquired from Toronto for Bowden Francis and Trevor Richards (who came to the Brewers in the Willy Adames deal) late in the 2021 season, has given the Brewers a 116 OPS+ with 42 homers and 117 RBI. That has not been bad, even with a 2022 season where he seemed closer to the Bob Uecker line than .250.

Solid performance at first base could be a big deal, and with the NL having the full-time DH now, a long extension is not as risky as it once was for players like Tellez. Tellez has shown some very good signs at the plate, and one can argue that the shift and bad luck in 2022 had an effect. Lefty power hitters and American Family Field are a good combination. Just ask Prince Fielder, Christian Yelich, Geoff Jenkins, and Eric Thames… you get the idea.

So, what does an extension for Tellez look like in this situation? Similar players have included Chris Carter, Mitch Moreland, Carlos Pena, C.J. Cron, and Ji-Man Choi. Their salaries have varied, with Pena pulling in as much as $10,125,000 in 2010. Cron recently signed a deal paying him $7.25 million in 2022 and 2023, and his career OPS+ of 117 is slightly higher than Tellez’s 116 OPS+ mark with the Crew. Of course, there is inflation to keep in mind.

In this case, the Brewers could offer Tellez $6 million a year in 2024 and 2025, $6.5 million in 2026 and 2027, with team options in 2028 ($7.5 million), 2029 ($7.5 million), and 2030 ($10 million). This is similar to the deal proposed for Luis Urias, taking the Brewers through the decade with a reasonably known quantity.

Like Luis Urias, Tellez is not a superstar but a solid option who could remove a question mark and not break the bank. It would be one thing if the Brewers had a prospect like Jackson Chourio at the position, but for now, an extension for Tellez makes a lot of sense for the Brewers.

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[MVP2110]

I think it's more likely he gets non tendered next offseason then it is that we bring him back. He rates very similarly to Chris Carter who was non tendered by this same front office at the same point Rowdy will be at next year. Rowdy last year had a wRC+ of 110 which was 16th among 1b, he was also the Brewers worst defender by dwar. It's possible Rowdy tears it up next year or that he significantly improves his defense but without either of those occurring I can't imagine the Brewers will be in a rush to lock up an average bat at 1b who provides negative defense. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I’d probably pursue Lauer and Urias extensions first but if Rowdy could be had on a team-friendly deal, it’s a pretty good idea. I think he’s due to take a nice step forward this season. He won’t be an elite bat but I think there’s a little more upside there. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

And let’s be honest about this situation. A portly fella named Rowdy Tellez should ONLY play for the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s a 2-ish WAR mascot. 

[Outlander]

Would pass, take it year to year with him. He may very well have a decent season but would have my doubts he could replicate  again. If he regresses then can part ways after the season.

[monty57]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I’d probably pursue Lauer and Urias extensions first but if Rowdy could be had on a team-friendly deal, it’s a pretty good idea. I think he’s due to take a nice step forward this season. He won’t be an elite bat but I think there’s a little more upside there. 

This is pretty much how I feel.

I mentioned this in the Urias thread, so I'll just do a quick recap here. If (as I expect) Burnes, Woodruff and Adames are all traded, then we should have a couple year period with a lot of pre-arby guys on the roster and a low payroll. It could make sense (and fit into the payroll) to extend some of our "second tier" guys for a couple of extra years. They'd play an important role in helping the team remain competitive and would be off the books when the current prospects start to get expensive in arby.

If price is around the same, I would much prefer extending Urias or Lauer than Tellez. Lauer because we will need five starting pitchers and he's proven to be an effective one. Urias because he matched Tellez's 110 wRC+ while playing multiple positions that are all harder than first base. So, if we have payroll room to extend all three, then go ahead and do it. If not, then Tellez is the first on the chopping block.

I would add an asterisk to this. Lauer's complaint was that the team wasn't doing everything they could to win now, so he probably wouldn't want to extend with a team who was trading away Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames and going with a bunch of pre-arby guys.

[wiguy94]

5 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

I think it's more likely he gets non tendered next offseason then it is that we bring him back. He rates very similarly to Chris Carter who was non tendered by this same front office at the same point Rowdy will be at next year. Rowdy last year had a wRC+ of 110 which was 16th among 1b, he was also the Brewers worst defender by dwar. It's possible Rowdy tears it up next year or that he significantly improves his defense but without either of those occurring I can't imagine the Brewers will be in a rush to lock up an average bat at 1b who provides negative defense. 

Agree with this. Rowdy needs to have a breakout season if he wants the Brewers to keep him going forward. If he's around 110 wRC+ and 1 WAR player again then I doubt the Brewers bring him back in 2024.