Article: PECOTA Projections Love the Brewers 2023 Starting Pitching Rotation

[Tim Muma]

The underachieving pitching staff was the main reason the Milwaukee Brewers failed to reach the postseason in 2022. With the new PECOTA projections released, there is renewed hope in the starting rotation's numbers for 2023.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

PECOTA allows you to see a variety of projections if a player plays up to their highest or down to their lowest levels. Thus, looking at their 50th percentile stats is the "safest" play. But it's also fun to see what they could accomplish if they reached their 70th or 80th percentile figures. Let's first stick with the 50th percentile to check out the projections for the anticipated starting rotation.


Starting with Corbin Burnes, his ERA, strikeout-per-nine (K/9), and FIP project better than last season. PECOTA sees him with 217 total strikeouts over 174.1 innings (about 28 fewer frames than last season). Though the numbers see fewer innings, it also displays six fewer home runs allowed in 2023. Last season, the homer bug bit Burnes, as he surrendered 23 dingers after giving up only seven in 2021. So while PECOTA sees his WHIP rising north of his career average, everything else is on track for another stellar year. 

Of course, those are only his 50th percentile numbers. Burnes is 28 years old, and has an argument as the best MLB pitcher since 2020. For a guy in the prime of his career - and healthy - what would 80th-percentile projections say? Congratulations to the 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner:

• 2.18 ERA
• 2.72 FIP
• 1.03 WHIP
• 11.20 K/9
• 2.26 BB/9

The Brewers' co-ace, Brandon Woodruff, shouldn't be far behind, even if PECOTA sees some regression. The projections show a slight decrease in K/9 from 11.20 to 10.58 with a higher WHIP and FIP. But assuming Woodruff throws more innings as projected, his walks-per-nine (BB/9) and ERA could improve over last season. If Woody can manage his Reynaud's disease and approach what he did in the second half of 2022 (6-1, 2.38 ERA, 0.977 WHIP), the Brewers have the most formidable one-two punch in baseball.

As far as we can tell, projections don't include the "bulldog mentality" factor. Woodruff's toughness and approach to pitching could play a factor in reaching greater heights, whether it's measurable or not. Can the 30-year-old get in on the Cy Young conversation by hitting his 80th percentile projections?

• 2.46 ERA
• 3.19 FIP
• 1.04 WHIP
• 10.63 K/9
• 2.19 BB/9

That brings us to the bridge, the linchpin, the potential game-changer in the middle of the rotation: Freddy Peralta. The 26-year-old right-hander says he's fully healthy, but has battled shoulder and lat issues the past two seasons. After just 78 innings pitched in 2022, PECOTA projects him to get to 111.2 frames this season. Milwaukee is probably hoping for around 130 in a perfect world. Like Woodruff, more innings could lead to less dominance, though only minimally. PECOTA projects Peralta to increase his BB/9 by 0.24 but also increase his strikeouts by a full batter per nine frames (that's a win!). 

Overall, the projection sees Peralta allowing plenty more base runners but using his strikeout rate and a terrific ground ball percentage (36%) to get out of jams. PECOTA envisions a 3.26 ERA for Peralta, down from 3.58 in 2022. With the Brewers monitoring his shoulder and youth on his side, Peralta's 80th-percentile numbers are top-to-the-rotation worthy.

• 2.94 ERA
• 3.50 FIP
• 1.14 WHIP
• 10.90 K/9
• 3.10 BB/9

Perhaps the most intriguing arm, in terms of floor-to-ceiling prospects, belongs to Eric Lauer. He was incredible to start 2022, posting a 2.38 ERA with a 10.3 K/9 and 3.8 K/BB ratio through his first 10 starts. His next 17 outings led to a 4.95 ERA, though, thanks primarily to giving up 1.9 home runs per nine innings (HR/9). So while the Brewers will gladly take Lauer's 3.69 ERA in 2022 as a fourth starter, other stats show risk (e.g., 4.50 FIP).

PECOTA seems to be splitting the difference between last year's performance and the concerns over Lauer's metrics. The projection has Lauer's walks and strikeouts remaining steady, but sees his WHIP jumping to 1.32 with a 3.89 ERA. Perhaps the most significant positive is PECOTA's projection of a 4.15 FIP. That's much better than his 4.50 FIP last season, meaning (ideally) less volatility in 2023. Again, the Brewers should be happy with a sub-4.00 ERA in that spot, but let's continue to play the optimist and look at Lauer's 80th-percentile projections.

• 3.59 ERA
• 3.98 FIP
• 1.27 WHIP
• 8.71 K/9
• 3.11 BB/9

Last and (likely) least valuable is Wade Miley. The 36-year-old southpaw tossed just 37 innings last season due to injury. His 2021 campaign was fantastic for a projected fifth starter, posting a 3.37 ERA across 163 frames. Miley isn't going to get a lot of strikeouts, though, and he's allowed more than nine hits per nine innings in 2020 and 2021. PECOTA doesn't feel great about Miley's ability to bounce back in 2023.

PECOTA projects a 4.42 ERA for Miley with a stunning 1.45 WHIP. His inability to get whiffs plays a considerable role in the projection, with a 6.6 K/9 rate and a .312 BABIP. Adding to the problem in the projections are 40 walks in 108.2 innings. Miley might be least likely to find his 80th-percentile production, but this is what that could look like in 2023.

• 4.06 ERA
• 4.03 FIP
• 1.39 WHIP
• 6.6 K/9
• 3.0 BB/9

The Brewers will certainly have several other pitchers making starts throughout the season, and those guys will play a significant role in determining the team's win total. Last year, those "extra guys" were mostly brutal. Losing Aaron Ashby to start 2023 doesn't help the cause, but hurlers like Bryse Wilson, Janson Junk, and prospect Robert Gasser should do a better job of filling the void in 2023. Milwaukee also still has Adrian Houser, who has displayed both brilliance and ineptitude in his time with the Brewers.

As for the projected starting five, let's not pretend it will all be roses. You've seen the 80th-percentile and 50th-percentile projections; now peek at the 20th-percentile stats should any of these starters struggle. At the bottom of the article, you'll find their 80th, 50th, and 20th-percentile PECOTA projections. Let's play a game with them. Based on the following criteria, how would you break down these five pitchers to give the Brewers the best chance at success?

• Choose two pitchers to reach their 80th-percentile figures
• Choose two hurlers to fall to their 20th-percentile numbers
• Choose one starter to stick at his 50th-percentile range

Do you want the most dominant numbers for the top two pitchers? Do you find the most balanced way to have a strong starting five? Let us know in the comments how you would determine the best version of the starting five based on the criteria above.

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[Matthew Trueblood]

I love the exercise you propose at the bottom of the piece. And the way these projections work makes for an easy call for me. I want the 20th-percentile outcomes from the aces, the 80th percentile from Lauer and Peralta, and the 50th from Miley. But that definitely bakes in my bias in favor of a strong but flat rotation. Anyway: great insights.