Article: Brewers Win Pyrrhic Victory Over Corbin Burnes in MLB Arbitration Case

[Matthew Trueblood]

On Wednesday, we learned that the Milwaukee Brewers had won their arbitration case against ace starting pitcher Corbin Burnes. He'll make $10.01 million this year, instead of the $10.75 million he requested. On Thursday in Arizona, Burnes told us what it all really cost.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

As Corbin Burnes understood it, the Brewers made the argument that he was "in the forefront of the reason why we didn't make the postseason last year" during the hearing earlier this week. That was the big takeaway from his polite but angry account of the process of salary arbitration, delivered to reporters at the team's spring training complex Thursday morning. Whether the team intended to argue that, exactly, will remain unknowable to us, because the hearing itself will not become a matter of public record. All that really matters, though, is that that is what Burnes heard.

This, as many have said, is the gigantic risk a team takes by going to arbitration with a player who is critical to their short- and long-term prospects for success. While the difference between the figures at which each side filed (nearly $750,000) is more significant than the general narrative has allowed, it's now likely that they'll spend more than that amount cleaning up the mess they've made. It will cost them incrementally more to extend some other player, or to convince a free agent to join their cutthroat gang. It will hurt their image with fans, many of whom already resented the thought process behind the Josh Hader trade and the general approach to this past offseason. They'll lose money, and they might well lose Burnes.

Worse, the case is grossly unfounded. Burnes did struggle down the stretch last year, with a 4.27 ERA in his final 10 outings, but the team went 6-4 in those games, and he was more uneven than truly bad.

2022 Pitching Game Log

Date		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	Pit	WPA	cWPA
Aug 18		LAD	W,5-3	GS-6	W(9-5)	4	5.2	6	3	3	2	6	0	0	2.48	103	0.095	0.06%
Aug 23	@	LAD	L,1-10	GS-4	L(9-6)	4	3.2	5	7	4	2	3	1	1	2.66	81	-0.293	-0.18%
Aug 29		PIT	W,7-5	GS-6		5	6.0	8	5	5	1	5	2	0	2.84	102	-0.327	-0.20%
Sep 3	@	ARI	W,8-6	GS-6		4	5.2	7	5	5	3	5	1	0	3.02	110	-0.269	-0.15%
Sep 8(1)		SFG	W,2-1	GS-8	W(10-6)	4	8.0	3	1	1	0	14	0	1	2.93	100	0.437	0.23%
Sep 14	@	STL	L,1-4	GS-7	L(10-7)	5	7.0	7	3	3	1	5	2	1	2.97	107	-0.080	-0.06%
Sep 19		NYM	L,2-7	GS-6	L(10-8)	4	5.2	7	5	5	1	4	1	0	3.12	100	-0.203	-0.16%
Sep 24	@	CIN	W,10-2	GS-7	W(11-8)	4	6.1	4	2	2	3	8	0	0	3.11	102	0.139	0.13%
Sep 30		MIA	W,1-0	GS-8	W(12-8)	5	8.0	4	0	0	0	7	0	0	2.98	103	0.563	0.66%
Oct 5		ARI	L,2-4	GS-3		4	3.0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	2.94	40	0.152	0.21%
			20-13		W-L:12-8	4.7	202.0	144	73	66	51	243	23	13	2.94	3274	3.173	2.74%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/16/2023.

Note that there are two games in that stretch against the juggernaut Dodgers, one against the Cardinals, and another against the Mets. There are also two games Burnes won virtually singlehandedly, shielding a weary bullpen by not only shutting down the opponent but doing so for eight innings while the offense did the bare minimum. He increased the team's Championship Win Probability Added even during the toughest stretch of his season, and the fact that he wore down slightly can't be fairly held against him under the circumstances. He bore up under the weight placed upon him precisely the way an ace ought to do.

Next time he's asked to pitch deep into September and push his odometer past 200 innings in pursuit of a playoff spot, he's likely to be better able to sustain himself. He'd never gotten the chance to do it before, thanks to the six-man rotation in 2021 and the stunted 2020 season. Surely, he learned much from the minor struggles he endured late in 2022. The Brewers probably should have considered that and given him credit for it, rather than viewing a minor underperformance as an opportunity to seize leverage and cancel out one minimum-salary roster slot by inflicting a Pyrrhic victory on themselves and their best player.

Here are Burnes's remarks, with a hat tip to MLB.com beat writer Adam McCalvy.

Every fear that going to an arbitration hearing against Corbin Burnes could harm his relationship with the Brewers was founded.

“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired],” Burnes said. pic.twitter.com/Xv8DFyiKde

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) February 16, 2023

We're eager to hear from you. This kind of grievance can be overblown, and the Crew could turn and spend their savings from this win on further reinforcement of the bullpen. Is there any way they can salvage this, in your eyes?

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[Brewcrew82]

Taking the words right out of my mouth. "Pyrrhic victory" is exactly what this is.

The only good that can come out of this now is if Corbin pitches like a man possessed this season due to the huge chip on his shoulder, and then we reap the benefits the following offseason with a huge prospect haul. 

Now, if we're in playoff position again and we proceed to trade him a la Hader....

[jerichoholicninja]

Not even gonna bother reading. Total eyeroll from me.

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Taking the words right out of my mouth. "Pyrrhic victory" is exactly what this is.

The only good that can come out of this now is if Corbin pitches like a man possessed this season due to the huge chip on his shoulder, and then we reap the benefits the following offseason with a huge prospect haul. 

Now, if we're in playoff position again and we proceed to trade him a la Hader....

If Wisconsin pro sports teams could *NOT* use royally pissing off stars as a motivational strategy, I think we’d all really appreciate it. Haha.

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

If Wisconsin pro sports teams could *NOT* use royally pissing off stars as a motivational strategy, I think we’d all really appreciate it. Haha.

Makes you appreciate what the Bucks have going with Giannis all the more..

[Playing Catch]

As I mentioned in another thread, it makes one appreciate the NBA's CBA/Global Marketing, which allows for smaller markets to compete with the big markets.

Regarding Burnes, we're only going to get his side of the story.

While I think it's unlikely, it's possible Burnes wasn't willing to sign for either arbitration number. It's possible that was simply what he and his agent thought they could win in the case. Perhaps they wanted a big deal and the Brewers countered with a deal commensurate with what arbitration figures would be. But we won't find out the details.

[Matthew Trueblood]

23 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

As I mentioned in another thread, it makes one appreciate the NBA's CBA/Global Marketing, which allows for smaller markets to compete with the big markets.

Regarding Burnes, we're only going to get his side of the story.

While I think it's unlikely, it's possible Burnes wasn't willing to sign for either arbitration number. It's possible that was simply what he and his agent thought they could win in the case. Perhaps they wanted a big deal and the Brewers countered with a deal commensurate with what arbitration figures would be. But we won't find out the details.

Certainly true. Although once they filed for that number, they ABSOLUTELY would have signed for it, because the only alternative was going to a hearing where that number represented the ceiling of his earnings. 
 

Whatever else we think of it, no question the Brewers played this right financially. The victory alone proves that. I think it’s just discouraging to see them focus so tightly on short-term savings in a narrow lens, rather than emphasizing behaviors that will grow the fan base and benefit the team on the field in the medium and long term. It’s especially galling, because when it comes to actual personnel decisions (like the Hader trade) they ALWAYS seem to be far-looking. At some point, the simple financial and the interpersonal things have to marry up with that paradigm, don’t they?

[Playing Catch]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Certainly true. Although once they filed for that number, they ABSOLUTELY would have signed for it, because the only alternative was going to a hearing where that number represented the ceiling of his earnings. 
 

Whatever else we think of it, no question the Brewers played this right financially. The victory alone proves that. I think it’s just discouraging to see them focus so tightly on short-term savings in a narrow lens, rather than emphasizing behaviors that will grow the fan base and benefit the team on the field in the medium and long term. It’s especially galling, because when it comes to actual personnel decisions (like the Hader trade) they ALWAYS seem to be far-looking. At some point, the simple financial and the interpersonal things have to marry up with that paradigm, don’t they?

What I was positing, is that it's possible that agents/players WANT to go to arbitration. Either so that they get their number, or so that they can go to the media the next day to complain about the system, and make vague references badmouthing the system/ownership/MLB.

I'm not claiming this IS what happened, just that I think this is a method by which the union creates sympathy with fans over their plight. It is especially effective when you are all but guaranteed to hit a record-breaking jackpot in free agency, as it very likely gets some national attention.

[Matthew Trueblood]

23 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

What I was positing, is that it's possible that agents/players WANT to go to arbitration. Either so that they get their number, or so that they can go to the media the next day to complain about the system, and make vague references badmouthing the system/ownership/MLB.

I'm not claiming this IS what happened, just that I think this is a method by which the union creates sympathy with fans over their plight. It is especially effective when you are all but guaranteed to hit a record-breaking jackpot in free agency, as it very likely gets some national attention.

Mm. I’m dubious of that. Teams come out of these squabbles looking bad, but fans hardly ever give meaningful, and certainly not tangible, credit to the player. It’s just vague sympathy flowing their way. Unhelpful. The cases in which guys actively WANT to go to a hearing are nearly always about pressing frontiers within the process, setting records and precedents. I don’t think Burnes WANTED to go to one here. Didn’t end up feeling that there was an alternative.

[Thurston Fluff]

I'm curious as to what Burnes thought was going to happen. The brewers weren't going to go in and point out all his good qualities. I'm a nobody on a fan page and I knew years ago how the process worked. If he didn't understand the Brewers were going to talk about the negatives that's on him and his agent.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The entire arbitration system is a trash fire that should have been addressed in the latest CBA. It's in both parties' interests to not do it this way.

[Brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The entire arbitration system is a trash fire that should have been addressed in the latest CBA. It's in both parties' interests to not do it this way.

It is quite amazing how collective bargaining negotiations often produce bizarre outcomes that are not in the best interest of either party. And then MLB collective bargaining takes that truth to a whole different level...

[Joseph Zarr]

 

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The entire arbitration system is a trash fire that should have been addressed in the latest CBA. It's in both parties' interests to not do it this way.

I completely agree with you. And, I would add, this process sounds so inherently passive aggressive I fear the Midwestern teams may never ever want to do away with it even if they address its blatant flaws in future CBA's.🥶

 

[PeterBal]

There are two sides to every story, but a couple of things that stood out to me were:

1. Burnes basically said that the Brewers hadn’t really reached out to deal with him prior to the hearing. Then, there’s a quote from Matt Arnold saying something to the effect of, “We tried to negotiate with Corbin a lot leading up to the hearing.” So, which is it?

2. On principle alone, Burnes is, by far, the best starting pitcher the Brewers have ever had, AND, arguably one of, if not, the best starting pitcher in MLB last year - and you’re going to squabble over $740K? Terrible optics externally and also terrible for team morale and it sends “a message” to all the other players on how valuable they are to the team.

I wrote a post on the Brewer Fanatic Forums a little while back when the Colorado Rockies owner was complaining about how the Padres spent . I was critical of Brewers’ seemingly milquetoast commitment to make the post-season or the World Series every year. I also said I never advocated for them to spend money just to spend money and that it’s not always who you sign as free agents, but who you sign on your team currently. The forum devolved into a lot of folks getting ticked at the post and supporting Attanasio and the Brewers on how they approached this off-season. This Burnes debacle (because that what this amounts to) is more of what I was trying to convey in that Forum post.

Now, where are all the Attanasio/Brewer front office supporters? 🤦‍♂️ 

[MVP2110]

4 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

There are two sides to every story, but a couple of things that stood out to me were:

1. Burnes basically said that the Brewers hadn’t really reached out to deal with him prior to the hearing. Then, there’s a quote from Matt Arnold saying something to the effect of, “We tried to negotiate with Corbin a lot leading up to the hearing.” So, which is it?

2. On principle alone, Burnes is, by far, the best starting pitcher the Brewers have ever had, AND, arguably one of, if not, the best starting pitcher in MLB last year - and you’re going to squabble over $740K? Terrible optics externally and also terrible for team morale and it sends “a message” to all the other players on how valuable they are to the team.

I wrote a post on the Brewer Fanatic Forums a little while back when the Colorado Rockies owner was complaining about how the Padres spent . I was critical of Brewers’ seemingly milquetoast commitment to make the post-season or the World Series every year. I also said I never advocated for them to spend money just to spend money and that it’s not always who you sign as free agents, but who you sign on your team currently. The forum devolved into a lot of folks getting ticked at the post and supporting Attanasio and the Brewers on how they approached this off-season. This Burnes debacle (because that what this amounts to) is more of what I was trying to convey in that Forum post.

Now, where are all the Attanasio/Brewer front office supporters? 🤦‍♂️ 

Someone clearly hasn't read the other thread, it's been explained numerous times how this isn't just over 750k

Ps. Why do we have two separate threads on the same topic? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

Now, where are all the Attanasio/Brewer front office supporters? 🤦‍♂️ 

To be fair to Attanasio, I doubt he had any involvement with Burnes in arbitration.

The front office, on the other hand... yikes. This is just the latest Corbin Burnes situation of several where the team doesn't seem even remotely interested in putting their best foot forward with a superstar pitcher.

[PeterBal]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

To be fair to Attanasio, I doubt he had any involvement with Burnes in arbitration.

The front office, on the other hand... yikes. This is just the latest Corbin Burnes situation of several where the team doesn't seem even remotely interested in putting their best foot forward with a superstar pitcher.

As much as it pains me to write this, I would venture to say, lose the last 4 words “…with a superstar pitcher.”

Now other MLB team blogs are going to call us the laughing stock like we all were weeks ago when chatting about the Rockies front office strategies.

[PeterBal]

4 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Someone clearly hasn't read the other thread, it's been explained numerous times how this isn't just over 750k

Ps. Why do we have two separate threads on the same topic? 

The point, and question, is: Does a team TRULY committed to making the post-season or making a legitimate World Series run handle this like this?

I think you know the answer.

[Seth Stohs]

I can't be the only one who had to look up what "Pyrrhic Victory" meant... right? 

[MVP2110]

6 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

The point, and question, is: Does a team TRULY committed to making the post-season or making a legitimate World Series run handle this like this?

I think you know the answer.

Yes they do, the Braves just did this same thing with Max Fried over 200k

[PeterBal]

2 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Yes they do, the Braves just did this same thing with Max Fried over 200k

And they basically have been shopping him around. Can you say, “Damaged relationship?”

[jerichoholicninja]

2 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

And they basically have been shopping him around.

No they haven't.

[MVP2110]

2 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

And they basically have been shopping him around. Can you say, “Damaged relationship?”

Arbitration almost always leads to hurt feelings, this is nothing new and it certainly isn't a Brewers specific problem

[PeterBal]

4 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

No they haven't.

Okay, but then that also points to the Braves saying that was untrue and we need him to get back to the World Series. I’m the Brewers case, the Burnes arbitration hearing is essentially them wanting to save a little money until they have to trade him. Also, Burnes is better than Fried - meaning, I guess I could understand it a little more from the Braves standpoint. However, I also gotta think the Braves wouldn’t have let arguably the best SP in MLB go to arbitration if Burnes was on their team.

[PeterBal]

7 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Arbitration almost always leads to hurt feelings, this is nothing new and it certainly isn't a Brewers specific problem

Let me ask this in a different way: in your opinion, should the Brewers have let Burnes go to an arbitration hearing? If you answer yes, then also please answer what the benefit of that hearing does for the Brewers. I’m not sure we’ve read/heard what the “endgame strategy” is for this arbitration hearing.