Club wins Burnes' arbitration case (source)

[Brewcrew82]

Just win a second Cy Young, and we'll trade you to the hometown Dodgers in December for a nice haul. 

[sveumrules]

2021 Burnes won CY on the back of historic peripherals (38 FIP-) and top tier run prevention (58 ERA-), but between a cautious workload coming off a pandemic shortened season and missing a couple weeks to COVID he came up just shy of the old school benchmarks at “only” 28 GS | 167 IP. Add it all up and you get something like 7.5 fWAR and 6.3 rWAR.

2022 saw him hit those old school benchmarks at 33 GS | 202 IP, but both his peripherals (79 FIP-) and run prevention (73 ERA-) slipped notably, some might say regressed to the mean, resulting in 4.6 fWAR | 5.3 rWAR. Still a Top Ten SP, just not thee very best.

I’d never expect anyone to repeat a 38 FIP- because that’s like peak Pedro stuff, but for Corbin to take the next step in 2023 he needs to match that 2022 workload and shave around ten points each off last year’s FIP- and ERA- marks.

A lot will probably come down to his HR rate, which was historically good in 2021 (31 HR9+), but a lot closer to league average (93 HR9+) last year.

[82brewcrew82]

On 2/17/2023 at 5:35 PM, KeithStone53151 said:

It doesn't seem likely he simply made up this claim. And couple this with comments from other recent Brewers...very likely to be accurate.

I think, in his own mind, that Corbin believes he isn't making it up.  Having said that we all know there are three sides to every story and we only have one.  I also think that this is how arbitration works and and has thousands of times but very few open their yap about it.  Every year teams go go arbitration with players over a couple hundred thousand dollars and most can accept the process with out airing it to the media.

I'm not for the owners or the players but what Corbin did wasn't productive in any way and not a good look for him even if he is right.

[sveumrules]

Saw on MLBTR today that Max Fried reported “no anger, animosity, or anything” after losing his Arby’s hearing.

You’d think he’d be extra mad since the Braves have handed out $735M in pre-FA extensions to Olson, Riley, Acuna, Albies, Murphy, Strider and Harris II over the last few years without cutting him in on the action, but nah. 

More like Max Chill.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Saw on MLBTR today that Max Fried reported “no anger, animosity, or anything” after losing his Arby’s hearing.

You’d think he’d be extra mad since the Braves have handed out $735M in pre-FA extensions to Olson, Riley, Acuna, Albies, Murphy, Strider and Harris II over the last few years without cutting him in on the action, but nah. 

More like Max Chill.

Kyle Tucker after back to back 5 WAR season got taken to an arb hearing this year after winning the World Series. His response when asked if this hurts his relationship with the Astros?

“No, I enjoy playing here, playing for the Astros”

[RobertCrawley]

On 2/18/2023 at 5:43 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree with that. Nothing positive comes from taking his opinions public in the heat of the moment. 

Does anyone think he'll be with the Brewers at the end of the year?

[Brock Beauchamp]

38 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

Does anyone think he'll be with the Brewers at the end of the year?

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

Honestly, I'd put over 50% odds he'll be on the Brewers roster at the end of the season.

[MVP2110]

I think the Brewers would need to fall pretty far out of contention to trade Burnes at the deadline. With the amount of blowback the Hader trade got I can't see them going down that path again, and that's with being able to look at that deal and call it a win

[MrTPlush]

57 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

I think the Brewers would need to fall pretty far out of contention to trade Burnes at the deadline. With the amount of blowback the Hader trade got I can't see them going down that path again, and that's with being able to look at that deal and call it a win

Slightly different scenario though. They were looking pretty good when they dumped Hader and seemingly were going to contend in 2023. With Burnes…that’s like the start of a rebuild/retool. I don’t think it would take much to trade him, if we were out of a playoff spot come near the deadline.

But to answer the question, I’d guess a solid 75% chance he stays all year. MLB.com recently had a projection of us winning the NL Central…so the odds we look that bad at the deadline is probably not very likely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

I think the Brewers would need to fall pretty far out of contention to trade Burnes at the deadline. With the amount of blowback the Hader trade got I can't see them going down that path again, and that's with being able to look at that deal and call it a win

And Hader, especially the depleted Hader of mid-2022, was eminently more replaceable than Corbin Burnes. 

[RobertCrawley]

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

Honestly, I'd put over 50% odds he'll be on the Brewers roster at the end of the season.

Thanks! Good to be here.

[MVP2110]

https://theathletic.com/4230583/2023/02/20/mlb-salary-arbitration-cba-tension?source=user-shared-article

A really interesting article about arbitration. It's on the Athletic so it's behind a pay wall but I'll include a few interesting quotes

-The union is adamant that the current system should remain intact. “While we often disagree with individual hearing results, salary arbitration is a right that generations of players have fought for and defended despite MLB’s repeated attempts to eliminate it,” a union spokesperson said. “It empowers players who are under club control and their agents to negotiate a salary or, failing an agreement, to have an arbitration panel step in to determine that salary.”

"Both sides will use any argument they believe necessary to win a hearing, but the clubs’ approach to arbitration has become more confrontational in recent years. The system was designed to foster settlements, yet virtually all clubs now adhere to a strict file-and-trial strategy, refusing to negotiate one-year deals with arbitration-eligible players"

The article further states that owners would like to change the arbitration process to more fixed numbers based on performance, the union though doesn't seem to want to do that. 

Considering everything that has happened with Burnes & Hader this seemed fairly relevant 

[StearnsFTW]

11 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

Does anyone think he'll be with the Brewers at the end of the year?

End of the calendar year or end of the season?

 

End of the calendar year-nope (or shortly thereafter).

End of the season-90+%

 

[Jake McKibbin]

Are there any other big free agent pitcher's hitting the market next year?

[sveumrules]

I wish Corbin won his case. Until deGrom can crack 25 GS/150 IP again, he’s the best pitcher in baseball. He’s the most irreplaceable player on the team. In the grand scheme of things, he’s worth exponentially more than that 700K he didn’t get.

But at the same time, that’s just how arbitration works and has worked for decades. The Brewers know it, Burnes knows it, his agent knows it, McCalvy knows it, fans should know it by now too.

If you don’t want to go through it, do what it takes to settle. If a compromise can’t be reached, handle the result win or loss like a professional.

I understand having an emotional reaction. But I don’t chalk up comments made by Burnes or Hader or Lauer or wall punching Williams or did him a favor Cain as anything more than that, emotional reactions in a moment of disappointment.

You want to have an unbeatable case in Arby’s next year? Win another CY and top it off with a WS MVP.

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Are there any other big free agent pitcher's hitting the market next year?

FA SP are stacked for 24/25.

Burnes, Woody, Wheeler, Buehler, Bieber, Fried, Glasnow, Scherzer (if his arm hasn’t fallen off)

[Jake McKibbin]

17 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

FA SP are stacked for 24/25.

Burnes, Woody, Wheeler, Buehler, Bieber, Fried, Glasnow, Scherzer (if his arm hasn’t fallen off)

Good lord

So Someone trying to land Burnes may want a trade an extension this coming off season, rather than wait? Especially given what happened with the shortstops a couple months ago... would that be right?

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Good lord

So Someone trying to land Burnes may want a trade an extension this coming off season, rather than wait? Especially given what happened with the shortstops a couple months ago... would that be right?

That seems to make a lot of sense to me.

I can't really see any way either Burnes or Woodruff are Brewers next year.

[Jake McKibbin]

6 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

That seems to make a lot of sense to me.

I can't really see any way either Burnes or Woodruff are Brewers next year.

I can maybe see Woodruff, though only because people seem to be drastically undervaluing him and his performance at the end of last season was nuts. I actually think Woody is worth a 200million contract on his past few seasons, but if he costs less than that, they should 100% be offering it to him

[brewcrewdue80]

13 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

Does anyone think he'll be with the Brewers at the end of the year?

1000pct.  I don't think a team is putting a package of prospects together worth trading Burnes for around the deadline.  He's either the #1 SP talent right now and if not top 3.  A team would need to headline 2 top 15 prospects before I'd even begin to listen. That means with Chourio being top 10 there can only be a max of 7 teams that could even start with a phone call and I'm pretty sure there aren't even 3 teams with top 2 top 15s.

Gunnar Henderson Adley Rutchman for Burnes and Contreras for example with some added parts.

[brewcrewdue80]

21 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I can maybe see Woodruff, though only because people seem to be drastically undervaluing him and his performance at the end of last season was nuts. I actually think Woody is worth a 200million contract on his past few seasons, but if he costs less than that, they should 100% be offering it to him

Woodruff is a 32GS season away from being a top 3 in CY that season and potentially winning if the contenders like Burnes doesn't reach 31 GS.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Are there any other big free agent pitcher's hitting the market next year?

There's a certain fella who can post an ERA of 2.50 while hitting 40 bombs a year that might garner a little free agent interest...

[brewmann04]

He be here but it they are bad that process changes but next off season he gone 

[brewcrewdue80]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

FA SP are stacked for 24/25.

Burnes, Woody, Wheeler, Buehler, Bieber, Fried, Glasnow, Scherzer (if his arm hasn’t fallen off)

I would think by next year meant the 23/24 offseason. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/2023-24-mlb-free-agents.html

Odd they didn't have this on their main page drop down list, but here's the early look at FAs this next offseason.  There's at least 34 SPs who will become FAs this upcoming offseason.  At least a dozen more who have options or opt outs that could add to that number.

[KeithStone53151]

On 2/17/2023 at 5:08 PM, wiguy94 said:

Offense was down league wide last year. The Brewers had the 11th best wRC+ in baseball which takes park factors into consideration and puts everyone on a league scale. It was an above average offense. The pitching was average and completely fell off from where it was in 2021 and that includes Burnes. 

Burnes in 2021 had a 58 ERA-, 38 FIP-, 54 xFIP-, 6.3 RA9-WAR, 7.5 fWAR. Burnes in 2022 had a 73 ERA-, 79 FIP-, 72 xFIP-, 5.3 RA9-WAR, 4.6 fWAR.  

Going to baseball savant and dropping a few advanced analytics doesn't change the fact that replace Burnes with the next best guy severely damages the pitching numbers.

This is a case of, winning is not necessarily the most important thing for the Brewers. Try to win, but how you win absolutely matters. It's better to lose than stoop to the level the Brewers are alleged to have stooped to win.