Club wins Burnes' arbitration case (source)

[monty57]

Just now, wibadgers23 said:

I really don't care what some stupid judge decides.  Burnes could have gotten 3X the amount on the open market so yes, I would say his requested amount was more than reasonable.

But it's not an open market, it's the arbitration system. The system is specifically designed to underpay players for the first six years of their career compared to what they'd get on the free agent market. Love it or hate it, it's what the Union and owners agreed to. 

It would be just as dumb for a team to willfully overpay "just because they could" as it would be for a star free agent to take league minimum "just because he could." 

[Brewcrew82]

33 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

You may find watching civil jury trial sometime informative, they're also the same way arbitration hearings work.  There are instructions given to the jury before they decide specifically pointing out what the lawyers said are not  facts they're giving argument. 

The attorneys representing the Brewers are tasked with putting together an argument that persuades the panel to decide in their favor. In fact, its pretty common for witnesses to be upset when they hear how the lawyers distort and recalibrate what they know to be as facts. 

I understand that, but the Brewers could have just as easily made and won their case imo without that statement, if it was indeed made. I'm not a huge fan of lies, which is what that particular statement effectively amounts to. 

[monty57]

6 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I was talking more about the system itself as opposed to the method of determining worth within the system. What should determine value is certainly a debate worth having. Since you brought it up, is using more modern methods of determining value going to mess with the accuracy of those methods? For instance, if using WHIP, strikeouts and FIP is used to determine arby numbers then it would stand to reason pitchers would pitch to get those numbers. Does that actually lead to a more productive player if the goal was the stat vs the end result?

This is anecdotal evidence but Zack Greinke said as much a few years back. He thought, reasonably IMHO, that pitching to get those stats would lead to better production. His numbers went up but his results as it pertained to actually winning games went down. Changing the goal to get strikeouts instead of a save wouldn't necessarily lead to contributing to more wins.

Interesting theoretical debate. The whole "Moneyball" theory is to look for skillsets that are being undervalued and buy them up at a discount. Following that logic it would be hard to set the arbitration values based on any specific statistical measures, as the price tag for different skillsets vary with the market.

But we can all agree that wins aren't a good measure for determining pitchers' values, right?

[StearnsFTW]

Pretty bad look for Burnes in my opinion.  I don't recall seeing any other players making statements like this after losing an arbitration hearing, but it's possible I just missed it.

There's a lot of things we don't know here, but the thing I would be most curious about it who wouldn't budge off of their number to avoid arbitration.  Could easily have been both parties.

We're never going to know, but it would be interesting to find out.

 

[SF70]

Burnes is a smart guy. He absolutely knew what he was in for attending his own “dressing down” hearing. He had 40 hours to think about what he was going to say to the media.

His words today are totally self-serving and extremely hurtful to the team. I’d imagine a lot of time spent on the phone (or in person) with his agent and union reps. 

This is all too calculating for me.

[Jopal78]

47 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I understand that, but the Brewers could have just as easily made and won their case imo without that statement, if it was indeed made. I'm not a huge fan of lies, which is what that particular statement effectively amounts to. 

Then again, they did miss the playoffs by one game, and Burnes pitched worse after August 5th (the last day the Brewers were in first place) until the end of the season, than he had up to that point in time. A distortion for sure, but when you miss by one game every player is theoretically a potential culprit. 

[Jopal78]

34 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Pretty bad look for Burnes in my opinion.  I don't recall seeing any other players making statements like this after losing an arbitration hearing, but it's possible I just missed it.

There's a lot of things we don't know here, but the thing I would be most curious about it who wouldn't budge off of their number to avoid arbitration.  Could easily have been both parties.

We're never going to know, but it would be interesting to find out.

 

I think Houser called the process "brutal," in the aftermath of his loss at hearing in '22. Hader called the system outdated when he lost his hearing. 

Chase Anderson said  "it was somewhat awkward to sit in the hearing room  and listen to the club make its case for the lower figure submitted" then “You just sit there and kind of wear it."

Corey Hart said he had some trepidation entering the hearing because he feared getting taken apart by the club when it presented its case. But he said it wasn't as ugly as he anticipated.

"It wasn't as bad as I thought," he said. "You hear a lot of horror stories, that you won't like your team after it's done. I talked with (assistant GM) Gord (Ash) before the hearing and told him there would be no hard feelings, that I wasn't going to be mad if I lost"

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Then again, they did miss the playoffs by one game, and Burnes pitched worse after August 5th (the last day the Brewers were in first place) until the end of the season, than he had up to that point in time. A distortion for sure, but when you miss by one game every player is theoretically a potential culprit. 

Thoeretically, yes. But, at the same time, Corbin is also the player that is most responsible for them being that close in the first place. That's where the Brewers crossed the line imo. Unnecessary, humiliating, and foolish. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Burnes' Brewers career thus far:

2018 - late season callup and dominated as a multi-inning reliever

2019 - arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball until he went back to the minors and then came back in the relief role again

2020 - dominant as a starter during the short COVID year after adding the cutter.

2021 - won the NL Cy Young despite pitching only 167 innings as a starter due to the 6 man rotation

2022 - really good year as a starter, but scuffled a bit down the stretch when the Brewers leaned on him every 5th day instead of every 6th.

He's only averaged 103 MLB innings pitched per season over 5 years, so it's not like his 2nd year into arbitration has 5 solid years of stats commonly seen with an ace.  Bieber is a very accurate comp to Burnes in that they're both in their 2nd arbitration year - however Bieber has 703 IP to Burnes' 515 at the MLB level, which is basically an entire season of innings for Burnes' expected workload.  Bieber signed for $10.01M with the Guardians and avoided arbitration by the way - I think that's exactly what Burnes just got via arbitration...it's not like these numbers aren't based on tons of historical comps and previous salaries.

And I really have a hard time believing the Brewers actually stated in the hearing something along the lines of "Burnes really cost us a shot at making the playoffs last season"....it's more likely they made the case that once his workload was increased to the level most ace-caliber starting pitchers carried (i.e., pitching every 5th game and being expected to get into the 7th/8th innings), Burnes' production faltered.  If people don't think teams looking to sign Burnes in free agency won't look at those same things when deciding whether to offer him $35M a season or $40 on a longterm deal, they're fooling themselves.  Burnes and his agent know that, too, and are likely very sensitive about it.

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Thoeretically, yes. But, at the same time, Corbin is also the player that is most responsible for them being that close in the first place. That's where the Brewers crossed the line imo. Unnecessary, humiliating, and foolish. 

I think your missing the point of these hearings. They were trying to figure out how much value he provided compared to others asking for that much in arbitration not how valuable he was to the team. If for example, Lauer was the best pitcher we had he would have been responsible for more wins than any other pitcher. That wouldn't mean he's worth the same in ararbitration as Burnes.

[Sakatarama]

Based off of this supposedly acrimony, it is possible that suitors come to the Brewers looking to trade for him here and now?

Maybe this was meant to draw out the Dodgers take a shot at it. Plus, we save about ten million in the process.

 

On a sidebar, am I the only one not impressed with Matt Arnold's composure and choice of words when speaking to the press? I assume this is my own gut feeling, but he doesn't strike me as well-reasoned and assuring to players and agents. Was he a part of the meeting with Burnes? if so, I wouldn't put it past him to spout out something that could be easily misconstrued as blaming Burnes for missing the playoffs.  IDK. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I think your missing the point of these hearings. They were trying to figure out how much value he provided compared to others asking for that much in arbitration not how valuable he was to the team. If for example, Lauer was the best pitcher we had he would have been responsible for more wins than any other pitcher. That wouldn't mean he's worth the same in ararbitration as Burnes.

All I'm saying is that the statement, if it was indeed made by the team, of Corbin being at the "forefront" of why we missed the postseason, was way over the top and didn't need to be said to win the case, with the ultimate result being pissing your best player off.

I acknowledge that this is how the system works and that the Brewers are trying to argue his value in the context of other similar cases, such as Shane Bieber. But they went a little too far here. 

Hopefully, Corbin and the team can find a way to live and let go. Because we need him pitching like he has the past three seasons if we're going to get to where we want to go. 

[StearnsFTW]

I find it hard to believe they said that.  My gut feeling (nothing else) is that is Corbin's interpretation of what they said. 

The way he took it is the most important thing overall though, even if it's unfair (which, again, it may not be).

 

[LouisEly]

31 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Thoeretically, yes. But, at the same time, Corbin is also the player that is most responsible for them being that close in the first place. That's where the Brewers crossed the line imo. Unnecessary, humiliating, and foolish. 

And Jhoulys Chacin was arguably the pitcher most responsible for them being in contention in 2018, but that doesn't mean that they should overpay him.

I don't really care.  The odds of Burnes being on the Brewers in 2024 are about the same as the odds of me winning Powerball, so have him pitch with a fire under his butt to make more money next year and increase what they get for him in trade value.

[Thurston Fluff]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

All I'm saying is that the statement, if it was indeed made by the team, of Corbin being at the "forefront" of why we missed the postseason, was way over the top and didn't need to be said to win the case, with the ultimate result being pissing your best player off.

I acknowledge that this is how the system works and that the Brewers are trying to argue his value in the context of other similar cases, such as Shane Bieber. But they went a little too far here. 

Hopefully, Corbin and the team can find a way to live and let go. Because we need him pitching like he has the past three seasons if we're going to get to where we want to go. 

It doesn't appear they said he was the only problem but when the best player doesn't perform up to expectations then he is going to be one of the main reasons the team didn't meet expectations. When your one of the best it comes with the territory.

[owbc]

Burnes was never going to sign an extension with us. Better for everyone that the wishful thinking gets squashed now. 

I do think the odds are increasing that the Hader trade will mark the end of this era of competitive Brewers baseball. Especially if there is lingering bad blood over that, which there may be. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm already sick of the posts that will surely be written right after Burnes is traded or signs a free agent deal elsewhere stating that "if the Brewers only weren't so cheap and had paid Burnes $740K more and avoided that arbitration hearing and upsetting Corbin's feelings, maybe he'd still be a Brewer"

And mods, can this thread please be merged with the "article" thread that was just written about this exact same topic?  Multiple threads about the same topic just make this board harder to navigate than it already is, and the article itself is nothing more than a detailed opinion post that includes a fancy word in it, anyways.  

[Brewcrew82]

37 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

It doesn't appear they said he was the only problem but when the best player doesn't perform up to expectations then he is going to be one of the main reasons the team didn't meet expectations. When your one of the best it comes with the territory.

It's a gross distortion of the truth, when in actuality, Corbin was the single biggest reason why we were able to dream of the playoffs in the first place. He hit a bit of a rough patch in August/early September, for sure, but tell me which pitcher doesn't go through those types of stretches. Meanwhile, he carried the starting pitching staff on his back over the rest of the season. Bottom line is his performance is far down on the list of reasons why they failed to make the playoffs, and he's the player on the team LEAST responsible for that outcome. Brewers made a clear mistake by going there...It's almost unbelievable. 

[Brewermania101]

16 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Why are you under the assumption Corbin would have ever accepted a club friendly pay structure? You are also making a huge assumption that the Brewers "verbal dressed him down in an arby hearing". 

The Atlanta Braves immediately following a WS last year went to arbitration with their ace Max Fried over $200K. This isn't the Brewers disrespecting Burnes. This is just how the arb process works. Honestly seeing the Brewers fan reaction to this has been exhausting. 

 

I'm not saying Corbin would .What I'm saying and said " Goodluck having him take a club friendly pay structure deal with salary deferments." is if there was any chance of him taking that kind of deal it's out the window by upsetting him. (of course this point is mute by his comments about turning down a two year deal today)

 

You know how modern athletes tend to be about  any negative comments they get, Especially by the team or lawyer representing them would be seen as an embarrassment/ jab at him which would be seen as a dress down to him. As it has been proven true by his comments towards the team in quotes and interviews today.

[Brewcrew82]

This is becoming a bit of a pattern here w/ Cain, Hader, and now Corbin criticizing management for not valuing them and/or not wanting to win a World Series. That's the most concerning thing to take out of this imo. Is this how we're going to be perceived around the league? Granted, as Brewers fans, we don't follow other team's relationships with their star players as closely as we do the Brewers, but the FO needs to realize it's about more than just maximizing value and minimizing risk...Maybe that's all Mark cares about though?

[MVP2110]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is becoming a bit of a pattern here w/ Cain, Hader, and now Corbin criticizing management for not valuing them and/or not wanting to win a World Series. That's the most concerning thing to take out of this imo. Is this how we're going to be perceived around the league? Granted, as Brewers fans, we don't follow other team's relationships with their star players as closely as we do the Brewers, but the FO needs to realize it's about more than just maximizing value and minimizing risk...Maybe that's all Mark cares about though?

I understand why Burnes & Hader would feel slighted, I will never understand why Cain did, the Brewers let him stick around to get his 10 years in even though he was terrible. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

I understand why Burnes & Hader would feel slighted, I will never understand why Cain did, the Brewers let him stick around to get his 10 years in even though he was terrible. 

Yeah. Cain feeling slighted seems ridiculous. But it's never something you want to hear said about management, and then you add in Hader and Burnes' comments...Concerning, to say the least, in terms of our reputation around the league and our aspirations of actually winning a World Series. 

[rickh150]

He’s actually complaining about this. What a complete tool… making 10 million and ungrateful. Trading him looks better.

[rickh150]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Thoeretically, yes. But, at the same time, Corbin is also the player that is most responsible for them being that close in the first place. That's where the Brewers crossed the line imo. Unnecessary, humiliating, and foolish. 

Criticizing the team for being foolish based on what exactly? Second hand comments made by an upset player? Burnes sits in an arbitration hearing, doesn’t hear wonderful things about himself for a change, and now needs to vent about a strained relationship. Sad. He simply shouldn’t get the money on attitude alone….. or even a better reason…not being ready to pitch 2021 NLDS Game 4 in Atlanta on short rest (so Woody could go on normal rest Game 5).

[Brewcrew82]

24 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Criticizing the team for being foolish based on what exactly? Second hand comments made by an upset player? Burnes sits in an arbitration hearing, doesn’t hear wonderful things about himself for a change, and now needs to vent about a strained relationship. Sad. He simply shouldn’t get the money on attitude alone….. or even a better reason…not being ready to pitch 2021 NLDS Game 4 in Atlanta on short rest (so Woody could go on normal rest Game 5).

It's the epitome of foolishness for the team to lay Corbin at the "forefront" of us missing the playoffs, considering he was the single biggest reason why we were in contention to begin with....

As for the 2021 NLDS? Please...He was honest with Counsell about where his body was at, and Counsell made the decision to start Lauer. Or have you not seen the stats on starters pitching in the postseason on 3 day's rest?