Article: Should the Brewers Extend Luis Urias?

[clancyphile]

Willy Adames has rightly been hailed as a cornerstone of the 2021 and 2022 Milwaukee Brewers teams, but Craig Counsell's club has another infielder they could extend--one who has proven himself to be a solid bat capable of playing multiple infield positions, including third base. Should Milwaukee try to lock up Luis Urías on a long-term deal?

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Meet Luis Urias, who in the last two full seasons has delivered an OPS+ of 111, highlighted by 39 homers, 42 doubles, and 122 RBI. Not too shabby, especially as he has either split time with Jace Peterson in the past or covered second base and shortstop. In other words, Luis Urias is, at worst, the kind of “utility infielder” that the Brewers haven’t had since Mark Loretta.

Urias, 26, is also relatively young to enter his fifth major-league season. This is a chance for the Brewers to lock in a solid performance for the medium-to-long term, particularly at third base. The team could use it, since the lack of long-term stability they have had at the position since the mid-2015 trade of Aramis Ramirez can be seen with one look at Baseball-Reference’s list of historical positional starters. Urias could provide that for the Brewers, whose best options in the farm system are Cam Devanney or Zavier Warren.

The question comes down to what extension the team should offer Urias, who will be paid about $4.7 million in 2023. Close comparisons through age 25 include Danny Espinoza (the best, per Baseball Reference), former Brewer Dale Sveum (4th), Kolten Wong (5th), and Brad Miller (8th), all of whom but Wong spent significant time at shortstop (Wong primarily played second with some time in the outfield). Still, all of them saw action at multiple positions.

Espinoza earned a peak of $5,425,000 in 2017 at age 30, after averaging 86 OPS+ from 2011 to 2016, with 2013 and 2014 being shortened by slumps. Wong is coming off a three-year deal that paid him $16 million across 2021 and 2022 and secured him $10 million in 2023. Miller got $6 million in 2022 and $4 million in 2023.

Could the Crew keep Urias and not break the bank? Like Eric Lauer, he is a player many teams would love to have as an everyday starter. With third base up in the air for the Brewers, it may make sense to lock him in on a multi-year extension to buy out some free agency.

A four-year deal for $25 million ($6 million in 2025 and 2025, $6.5 million in 2026 and 2027) with some team options ($7.5 million for 2028 and 2029 and $10 million for 2030) could give the Brewers a solid third baseman for the rest of the decade. Of course, how the development of Tyler Black, Brice Turang, Felix Valerio, Devanney, and Warren play out might make Urias a long-term starter at shortstop or second base or even trade bait.

Compared to the mega-deals that went for shortstops that will make reaching an extension with Adames, who has posted a 122 OPS+ with the Brewers, harder, an extension for Luis is a relative bargain. Urias may not be as spectacular as Adames, but like Eric Lauer, he also is a proven commodity that can at least remove a question mark.

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[MVP2110]

I would love to lock Urias down, I think his floor is being a high end super utility player and for the last 2 years he's been an above average starter. Extending him seems fairly low risk and wouldn't require breaking the bank. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Brewers aren't going to extend any of the big three, I like the idea of gaining an extra couple of years from some of their second tier players like Urias, Tellez, Lauer, etc.

And the moment Chourio hits the majors, I want to see him locked down for 8-10 years.

[wiguy94]

I'd definitely try to extend Urias. Lock him down for 1 or 2 FA years would be a good move to provide stability over the next 4 years.

[monty57]

I consider extensions once a guy's into his arby years akin to signing free agents, as you aren't going to get too much of a discount for the free agent years. Therefore, I think you have to ask "if this guy was a free agent, would we realistically be going after him?" For guys like Burnes and Woodruff, that's a resounding no. Urias is a definite maybe.

Urias has a decent bat and positional flexibility, so there should be a role for him even as some of the prospects make their way to the majors. If the Brewers could get a little bit of a discount for taking some risk off the table for Urias, an extension is worth exploring. 

[JohnBriggs12]

By giving him financial security now, you are taking away his incentive to keep getting better.  Some guys will continue to work just as hard but many don't.  Some White Sox fans I know believe the Sox locking up most of their promising young everyday players has led to a lot of complacency which is part of the reason for their disappointing performance in 2022. Remember these are guys in their mid twenties getting money most people just dream of.  Even older players are not immune,  

[clancyphile]

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If the Brewers aren't going to extend any of the big three, I like the idea of gaining an extra couple of years from some of their second tier players like Urias, Tellez, Lauer, etc.

And the moment Chourio hits the majors, I want to see him locked down for 8-10 years.

Chourio is an interesting case... if I'm the Brewers, if he extends, great.

If not... maybe the Trent Grisham strategy might be the right move. Controversial at the time, but is anybody complaining now?

[TURBO]

Chourio is not in any way a comparison to Grisham.  I mean, those two guys are on totally separate planets.

[clancyphile]

10 hours ago, TURBO said:

Chourio is not in any way a comparison to Grisham.  I mean, those two guys are on totally separate planets.

I agree, but at the same time, it never hurts to plan for contingencies - like not being able to get an extension in place.

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, clancyphile said:

I agree, but at the same time, it never hurts to plan for contingencies - like not being able to get an extension in place.

The interesting thing is this is always easier to say in hindsight

For example, if he has a first season like a top tier talent, he's unlikely to accept a real low offer, though could maybe get 1/2 extra seasons due to his likely young starting age in the big leagues.

However on this basis, we also could've offered Hiura a long contract based on his first year, and that wouldn't have turned out so well.

I think the Brewers could do it when he turns up in the bigs immediately, but even then there's some risk, as there has to be some uncertainty over future earnings to get a deal like this that's team friendly

[clancyphile]

2 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

The interesting thing is this is always easier to say in hindsight

For example, if he has a first season like a top tier talent, he's unlikely to accept a real low offer, though could maybe get 1/2 extra seasons due to his likely young starting age in the big leagues.

However on this basis, we also could've offered Hiura a long contract based on his first year, and that wouldn't have turned out so well.

I think the Brewers could do it when he turns up in the bigs immediately, but even then there's some risk, as there has to be some uncertainty over future earnings to get a deal like this that's team friendly

It's a tough call - why Doug Melvin, David Stearns, and now Matt Arnold get the big bucks. Knowing you not only need to keep putting the best team you can on the field, but also to keep the team profitable.

I'm not sure how long any of us could manage that level of stress.

[monty57]

We all know the team has some major personnel decisions to make in the near future. As it stands now, Urias' team control goes through 2025, which is his 4th arby year. He's set to make $4.7M this year (year two arby), so I think it'd take more than the 4 year/$25M contract proposed in the article, but it wouldn't break the bank.

In 2026, the only players from the current team who will still be around are Yelich (through '28 + '29 option), Ashby (through '27 w /'28 & '29 options), Toro (final arby year in '26), and our pre-arby guys which are pretty much Taylor, Mitchell, Contreras and some role players.

Guys who could debut this year (Frelick, Turang, Wiemer, Chourio) could hit arby in '26 or '27, depending on when they're brought up. Depending on what other decisions are made, that could give us a fairly inexpensive lineup for a year or two. Someone like Urias could give us a decent veteran option for the '26 and '27 seasons when he should be able to fit into the budget while the current prospects are making their way through pre-arby and into their early arby years.

Of course, I would like to see them extend as many of the current top prospects as possible early on, in which case Urias would be a nice complementary piece to the guys who will be our core players for most of the next decade.

My one concern with extending him is that he was underperforming until Adames joined the team. I recall an article stating that he prefers to kind of play in the shadows rather than being the center of attention, and Adames' personality took the spotlight off of Luis. I have no idea how Urias' play will be effected when Adames is gone, which could be after this season. The team has a lot more insight into that than any of us ever will.