The Jesse Winker Gamble

[Jopal78]

Suppose the Brewers get lucky with Winker and he not only recovers from multiple operations but he bounces back to his prior production of .380/.550. 
 

Do the Brewers trade him regardless of their position in the standings, extend a qualifying offer (likely over $20 million for ‘24) or let that production walk for nothing after the season?

[bensheeps]

First, I do think Winker will have a rebound and think(hope) he spends most of his at bats at DH.

With those things said, I am guessing he walks after the year as that opens up the DH spot in 2024 for Yelich on a more regular basis and in turn creates an OF spot for the young guys.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Suppose the Brewers get lucky with Winker and he not only recovers from multiple operations but he bounces back to his prior production of .380/.550. 
 

Do the Brewers trade him regardless of their position in the standings, extend a qualifying offer (likely over $20 million for ‘24) or let that production walk for nothing after the season?

If he has that kind of impact, not a chance

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Suppose the Brewers get lucky with Winker and he not only recovers from multiple operations but he bounces back to his prior production of .380/.550. 
 

Do the Brewers trade him regardless of their position in the standings, extend a qualifying offer (likely over $20 million for ‘24) or let that production walk for nothing after the season?

I am not sure that would be lucky but that is semantics. 

I don't see the Brewers trading him unless they are out of it.  Winker is going to be the primary DH and unless Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor and Wiemer are all hitting extremely well there is no way the Brewers are moving Winker if they are ahead or are close in the standings. 

I don't see the Brewers extending a qualifying offer to Winker that is a really big gamble for the Brewers to take on.  The next off season for Winker if he is offered a QO will look a lot like Joc Pederson or Conforto a few years ago.  Unless Winker puts up a 1.000 OPS season I just don't see teams willing to give up a pick for Winker. 

[Jopal78]

47 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I am not sure that would be lucky but that is semantics. 

I don't see the Brewers trading him unless they are out of it.  Winker is going to be the primary DH and unless Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor and Wiemer are all hitting extremely well there is no way the Brewers are moving Winker if they are ahead or are close in the standings. 

I don't see the Brewers extending a qualifying offer to Winker that is a really big gamble for the Brewers to take on.  The next off season for Winker if he is offered a QO will look a lot like Joc Pederson or Conforto a few years ago.  Unless Winker puts up a 1.000 OPS season I just don't see teams willing to give up a pick for Winker. 

The road is littered with players who had knee surgery and didn’t make it 100% back, as well as players who have spinal surgery and never make it back 100%. Winker had them both this off season. So yes, the Brewers are taking a gamble that he comes back healthy and is a productive hitter.

If he’s back and is the Winker of old, he’s could be a .950 to 1.000 OPS hitter. The Brewers really haven’t had that caliber of hitter since the Yelich MVP days. Since Winker is on an expiring contract I could see all the scenarios.

They already have a track record of trading short term key contributors despite the standings if they perceive their value to be at its apex….see Josh Hader.

A qualifying offer of 20+ million seems out of the Brewers grasp, but if Winker is all the way back, it would sure sting to let that kind of production leave while getting nothing in return; yet the Brewers love their buzzwords like “payroll flexibility” which means not committing large guarantees to players.

 

[nate82]

9 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

They already have a track record of trading short term key contributors despite the standings if they perceive their value to be at its apex….see Josh Hader.

A qualifying offer of 20+ million seems out of the Brewers grasp, but if Winker is all the way back, it would sure sting to let that kind of production leave while getting nothing in return; yet the Brewers love their buzzwords like “payroll flexibility” which means not committing large guarantees to players.

One trade is not a trend. 

That is the reality of MLB free agency.  I don't believe a large market team would offer Winker a QO unless they were comfortable with him returning on the QO.  I don't see a team willing to give up a draft pick to sign Winker his situation would be similar to Joc Pederson and Conforto.  There are others to compare him to but those are the most recent. 

[Jopal78]

33 minutes ago, nate82 said:

One trade is not a trend. 

That is the reality of MLB free agency.  I don't believe a large market team would offer Winker a QO unless they were comfortable with him returning on the QO.  I don't see a team willing to give up a draft pick to sign Winker his situation would be similar to Joc Pederson and Conforto.  There are others to compare him to but those are the most recent. 

Trend, history call it what you want; they did it before so one cannot rule it out from happening again.

With respect to a QO it doesn’t really matter what a big market team would do, it’s whether the Brewers would simply let a healthy pre-injury productive Winker walk for nothing. 

 

[Jake McKibbin]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

Trend, history call it what you want; they did it before so one cannot rule it out from happening again.

With respect to a QO it doesn’t really matter what a big market team would do, it’s whether the Brewers would simply let a healthy pre-injury productive Winker walk for nothing. 

 

I think given the dearth of hitting the Brewers have had recently, and given last seasons response to trading Hader, if Winker produces those numbers and the Brewers are chasing playoffs, there's no chance he gets traded bar a remarkable offer and we have 3 OF prospects with OPS of .800 and above

It's simply too valuable when you have a pitching staff like the Brewers do to trade a bat like that, especially if he's injury free at the time.

So based on the parameters in the initial question, I just can't see any "realistic" situation in which this happens

[endaround]

I thought giving up draft picks was gone and teams only received picks under the new CBA? Anyway, the QO is likely greater in one year than Winkler would get in 2 as a free agent so while possible I doubt the Brewers offer it.  Letting players leave at the end of the contract is not the end of the world, especially when the opportunity cost is a FV35 prospect.

[Playing Catch]

I agree with endaround...

1 - I don't think draft pick compensation works the same way (I don't think the signing team gives one away -- but I think there is draft pick compensation depending on the value of the FA deal(?)).

2 - The Brewers have demonstrated a willingness to sign less-expensive, short-term deals for players they think can help. Trading Wong for 1 season of Winker is kind of like that. They traded for him at his current salary. Kind of like they had simply signed him for a 1-year deal at that salary.

So I think they'll keep him and let him walk, unless they stink and he's tradeable, or they DFA him because he's awful, hurt, negative lockerroom presence, or a combination of those factors and they think one of the kids, or some waiver-wire guy would be a better guy to roster.

[Playing Catch]

Again, I think the Brewers DO look at the on-field value/contributions players make and want to be competitive for a playoff spot. The Hader trade doesn't happen without getting Rogers back in the deal (not arguing that it was a good idea or that it worked, we've done that 1000 times). Like endaround said, it's just not that big of a deal to let guys walk at the end of the season unless the player IS a qualifying offer kind of player, which the good version of Hader represents.

So, I guess what I'm saying is that if Winker is performing at a level where some other team wants him, and the Brewers are in the race, and the Brewers dealt him, MLB assets would be coming back in the deal. I think the only way the Brewers offer him a QO after the season is if he is an absolute monster on the field and angel in the clubhouse, which I'm not predicting.

[nate82]

5 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

1 - I don't think draft pick compensation works the same way (I don't think the signing team gives one away -- but I think there is draft pick compensation depending on the value of the FA deal(?)).

That was only if the international draft was put in place.  Since MLB and the MLBPA didn't agree to an international draft the old rules for compensation are still in place. 

[owbc]

I just don't see Winker coming back from those surgeries and lighting it up in April and May. It would be truly phenomenal if he is leading the team in OPS at the all-star break. If he bounces back to an OPS of .800 in 2023 that would be considered a success in my view. 

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The road is littered with players who had knee surgery and didn’t make it 100% back, as well as players who have spinal surgery and never make it back 100%. Winker had them both this off season. So yes, the Brewers are taking a gamble that he comes back healthy and is a productive hitter.

 

It's a gamble to a degree, but at this point...both surgeries are pretty routine. Either one on their own he would have a strong chance to come back from. Having 2 certainly adds to/compounds the risk a bit as either one could be problematic and prevent a comeback. It's far more likely than not that he'll recover just fine from the surgeries, whether he comes back and can hit is another question...I'm betting that he does at least against RHP.

[KeithStone53151]

37 minutes ago, owbc said:

I just don't see Winker coming back from those surgeries and lighting it up in April and May. It would be truly phenomenal if he is leading the team in OPS at the all-star break. If he bounces back to an OPS of .800 in 2023 that would be considered a success in my view. 

One general thought, Winker has pretty much the maximum motivation to put everything he has into working hard this offseason. To physically recover from 2 surgeries, contract year, he's in a battle for playing time. If he doesn't force his way into the lineup against a field of highly regarded prospects and produce enough to get interest in free agency,  he'll wind up a non-roster invitee somewhere hoping to make a roster to earn 2-3 million next year...and he knows it. I would like to think that motivation will have him putting in work this offseason like he never has. I'm a firm believer that talent will only get you so far and you need to be outworking the field to get ahead. Winker has the talent, we've all seen it, and he has every motivation to outwork the field.

[KeithStone53151]

2 hours ago, endaround said:

I thought giving up draft picks was gone and teams only received picks under the new CBA? Anyway, the QO is likely greater in one year than Winkler would get in 2 as a free agent so while possible I doubt the Brewers offer it.  Letting players leave at the end of the contract is not the end of the world, especially when the opportunity cost is a FV35 prospect.

The only way the Brewers offer a QO is if it's more or less a slam dunk that he won't take it. To use an extreme example, if Winker posts 1000+ OPS with 40+ dingers, I suspect we'll offer it and take the free draft pick as he's probably looking at a Nick Castellanos contract. If he has a season similar to Joc Pederson, whereas Pederson was offered the QO and eventually took it, we won't be offering. We're not in a financial position to be able to offer that unless it's more or less risk free.

[monty57]

On 2/13/2023 at 7:47 AM, Jopal78 said:

Suppose the Brewers get lucky with Winker and he not only recovers from multiple operations but he bounces back to his prior production of .380/.550. 
 

Do the Brewers trade him regardless of their position in the standings, extend a qualifying offer (likely over $20 million for ‘24) or let that production walk for nothing after the season?

To the three scenarios you listed:

1) Trade: If the Brewers are in the race, I think the only scenario in which he would be traded would be if all of our prospects/rookies were knocking the cover off the ball, and we were offered a huge return for Winker. We'd get the value back in trade, and Yelich could take over most of the DH duties with Frelick/Mitchell/Wiemer/Chourio manning the OF. That's a lot that would have to go right, so I doubt he's traded. 

2) Qualifying offer: This isn't out of the question, but will depend on what they're doing with guys like Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames. If they're trading those guys away, a one-year/$20M contract would probably fit into their payroll, and having his bat (assuming for sake of this thread that he's a .380/.550 guy) in the middle of the lineup in '24 would help alleviate the loss of the guys we traded. If we hold onto the arby guys for one last "go for it" year, we probably couldn't afford a $20M player, even on one year.

3) Walk for nothing: Right now, I think this is the odds-on favorite for happening. But, it will depend not only on his performance, but also the performance of other players (prospects) and other personnel moves that could be made that would lighten up the payroll.

$20M/year is a lot, but when it's only for one year, it could be palatable to the Brewers if they can fit it in the payroll. Plus, if we've traded away the other guys, we may have a down year even with a .380/.550 guy in the middle of the lineup. If that happens, teams would love to trade for him at the '24 deadline, so it would "only" cost up $10M and we'd get some young players back in trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

20 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

The only way the Brewers offer a QO is if it's more or less a slam dunk that he won't take it. To use an extreme example, if Winker posts 1000+ OPS with 40+ dingers, I suspect we'll offer it and take the free draft pick as he's probably looking at a Nick Castellanos contract. If he has a season similar to Joc Pederson, whereas Pederson was offered the QO and eventually took it, we won't be offering. We're not in a financial position to be able to offer that unless it's more or less risk free.

I think this is pretty accurate, though I'd prefer the Brewers gamble a little in the "risky" area of that conversation. Say if Winker posts a 130 OPS+ and plays 135 games, I'd seriously consider giving him the QO but at that point, there's a chance he'd accept the offer.

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think this is pretty accurate, though I'd prefer the Brewers gamble a little in the "risky" area of that conversation. Say if Winker posts a 130 OPS+ and plays 135 games, I'd seriously consider giving him the QO but at that point, there's a chance he'd accept the offer.

If he puts up a 130 OPS+ as a DH I think the Brewers offer him a QO at that point it is close to what the Brewers gave Grandal for 1-year $16m + 2m buyout. 

[igor67]

If Winker hits well enough to justify the QO, paying him the going rate for a year strikes me as an easy choice to make. Getting a difference maker bat on a 1 year contract is pretty good value in my estimation especially when he has shown that volatility and a limited positional flexibility. 

[Jake McKibbin]

10 minutes ago, igor67 said:

at volatility and a limited positional flexibility. 

The biggest think for Winker is if he plays 140+ games. If he does that, he'll be in line for a multi year deal elsewhere, looking at the contract of people like Abreu. It's also entirely possible that neck surgery frees him up a little in the field too, whereas he has had it nagging him for quite a while. 

So yeah if he shows durability a 1 year offer is unlikely to be accepted IMO

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, igor67 said:

If Winker hits well enough to justify the QO, paying him the going rate for a year strikes me as an easy choice to make. Getting a difference maker bat on a 1 year contract is pretty good value in my estimation especially when he has shown that volatility and a limited positional flexibility. 

The decision isn't that simple when you factor in trying to keep Adames/Burnes/Woodruff...even for that last year of arbitration as their raises for next year will be substantial. The Brewers aren't a team that can pay many players the going rate, we need to find value where others don't and utilize team control players. Next year, Yelich/Adames/Burnes/Woodruff are gonna run us around 70 million assuming we keep them all. At a 140 million payroll if it can stretch that high, that's 70 million to pay 36 other players. Adding another 20 for one player(especially a LF/DH) is not realistic and changes what we can do with Adames/Burnes/Woodruff.

[KeithStone53151]

https://www.mlb.com/news/jesse-winker-recovering-well-from-offseason-spinal-surgery?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share

[MrTPlush]

There is a zero percent chance the Brewers offer him a QO if he returns to form. Because even the best ever of Winker in his career was less than 450 ABs and like 110 games. He doesn't really have much of a track record for full years worth of games. I don't think they want the risk if he can't stay healthy and prove to do it over an entire year. I think it is generous to call that returning to form...because the track record is so short of him doing it. 

Now if he goes and puts that stat line up over 150 games...yah, they would give him the QO regardless if they want him. They could just trade him...easily. 

Of course, it is really wishful thinking he can do that regardless of half a dozen offseason surgeries. 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

The decision isn't that simple when you factor in trying to keep Adames/Burnes/Woodruff...even for that last year of arbitration as their raises for next year will be substantial. The Brewers aren't a team that can pay many players the going rate, we need to find value where others don't and utilize team control players. Next year, Yelich/Adames/Burnes/Woodruff are gonna run us around 70 million assuming we keep them all. At a 140 million payroll if it can stretch that high, that's 70 million to pay 36 other players. Adding another 20 for one player(especially a LF/DH) is not realistic and changes what we can do with Adames/Burnes/Woodruff.

I agree. The only way I see the team being able to afford a qualifying offer to Winker is if they decide to trade away Burnes, Woodruff and Adames. Having his bat around in '24 with the young players both coming up from our farm and those we'd receive back in trade could help stabilize things as we try to remain competitive going forward. Then he could be flipped in '24 if the team isn't ready to compete.

If the team keeps any of the Burnes/Woodruff/Adames group for their final year (I don't think it'll be possible to keep them all), then it would be tough to fit a QO player into the payroll.

That opens up another question. If a player accepts a qualifying offer, can the team immediately trade him? If Winker plays as well as the hypothetical situation in the opening post, and he is offered a QO and accepts, that would give the Brewers yet another player who would be expensive and under team control for one year (2024) before becoming a free agent. If he could be traded, then that would put the team in the position of deciding which (if any) of Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Lauer, Houser, Winker, etc they would keep and which they would trade away.