Article: What Constitutes Success for the 2023 Milwaukee Brewers?

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Yes, @Jopal78, it is going to be difficult for the $120M Brewers to have the firepower of the $355M Mets, $272M Yankees, $256M Padres, $243M Phillies, $221M Dodgers, etc.

The Brewers laid an egg last year, as talent-wise I think they were closer to the '21 team than what they showed last year. A number of things went wrong, but I don't think talent-wise they were nearly as bad as they showed. Our team scored 725 runs in '22 vs 738 in '21. The bigger problem was that we had a lot of injuries to the pitching staff, which gave up 688 Runs in '22 vs 623 in '21.

We do have to hope for health, but so does every team. When healthy, our pitching staff probably should be closer to the third best in the majors, like they were in '21, than what they showed last year.

The offense is a bit more uncertain, as we've had more changes. On the positive side:

1) On the offensive side, the '21 CFs set the bar pretty low. Mitchell doesn't have to do much to overcome their offensive production.

2) While McCutchen's 98 wRC+ isn't horrible, it isn't good for a DH, and he never should have been cemented into the top of the order. Almost any of our hitters would have been a better choice as a #3/4 hitter vs RHP. Winker should be an upgrade here.

3) Adames had a dismal .278 BABIP, causing his OBP to suffer (.298). This would hurt anywhere, but it really hurts when he sat in the 2-hole all year. While that could happen again, it shouldn't be expected.

4) Narvaez had a down year offensively, and Caratini wore out as the season went on. Even with a Sophomore slump, Contreras should be an offensive upgrade.

On the negative:

1) Renfroe was solid offensively. Taylor has decent overall numbers in his career, but he probably won't match the offense Renfroe posted. Even assumng Frelick or Wiemer are called up, we could see a decline offensively here. On the positive, we should see better defense.

2) Anderson hasn't been very good the past two seasons. He could bounce back, but he could also post another 0.5 WAR like he did last year. Turang is waiting in the wings, but I don't know that they'll match the production Wong gave us last year.

 

So overall, I see reason to believe that the offense could be a little better, and the pitching should be a lot better than we saw last year. That would put us around where we were in '21. But, I'm an optimist. The games still need to be played. 

The offense definitely has potential outcomes both positive and negative in comparison to last year, but I think the upside is much higher this year with Winker, Contreras and some rookies coming up. If things go right we could push for a top 10 offense in all of baseball (finished 11th in wRC+ last year I believe)

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

The offense definitely has potential outcomes both positive and negative in comparison to last year, but I think the upside is much higher this year with Winker, Contreras and some rookies coming up. If things go right we could push for a top 10 offense in all of baseball (finished 11th in wRC+ last year I believe)

Yeah, ended up 11th in wRC+, 10th in runs scored and 8th in position player WAR last year.

Mariners, Guardians, Phillies, Padres and Rays all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR.

Brewers pitchers ended up 14th in rWAR. Only Toronto made the postseason with lower rWAR from their pitchers.

The offense was much closer to playoff calibre than the pitching was in 2022.

So in a macro sense, to improve on 2022 this year we’ll need the pitching to bounce back closer to 2021 levels and hope the offense can hold serve or maybe improve slightly.

Outgoing players (Renfroe, Wong, Omar, Cain, Jace, Cutch) accounted for about 8 WAR so we’ll need Winker, Contreras, Anderson and the various rookies to make that up.

Something else I found kind of interesting was that Cain (-12.4), Omar (-10.0), Jace (-1.5) and Cutch (-1.2) combined for -25.1 batting runs in their 1,360 PAs, essentially canceling out the good that Renfroe (+14.5) and Wong (+9.6) provided in their 1,019 PAs.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

Don’t have the time to read the article or comments right now, but a successful 2023 for the Brewers is 1 of 2 scenarios with virtually no variation:

1.) Brewers narrowly make the postseason via a wild card spot while relying on their starting pitching depth once again with an early elimination from the postseason.

2.) Brewers are not contending around the trade deadline or, at the very least, clearly have no shot of a division title and decide to capitalize on the most valuable major league assets by selling in order to build the best, deepest young organization and farm system in baseball.  This would set them up for competitive baseball for years and years to come as well as free up salary space.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I agree with many of these answers if we are talking about success of the Brewers over the next few years.  But the question is what is success for 2023?  That has to be one thing.  Get to the playoffs and either win it all or at least go deep in the playoffs.  If the Brewers are not going to make it, then I am fine with trading off a star or two before they leave for Free Agency but I would not call that 2023 Success.  That's called failure and trying to make the best of it.

[Robocaller]

Success means making the playoffs and having young players develop.

 

[monty57]

On 2/11/2023 at 7:08 AM, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I agree with many of these answers if we are talking about success of the Brewers over the next few years.  But the question is what is success for 2023?  That has to be one thing.  Get to the playoffs and either win it all or at least go deep in the playoffs.  If the Brewers are not going to make it, then I am fine with trading off a star or two before they leave for Free Agency but I would not call that 2023 Success.  That's called failure and trying to make the best of it.

People see success differently. If I run a drug company, and the research department finds the cure for cancer in 2023, but it won't be available commercially until 2024 or 2025, I would still consider that a very successful year. 

In other words, if we use 2023 as a springboard to future success, than that could be viewed as a successful season, even if the major league team didn't play to expectations.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The 2022 team was quite possibly the least entertaining Brewers team to watch over the last decade. This was fueled by an oftentimes anemic offense, along with starting pitching injuries that brought the team's record quickly back down to earth after an terrific start. I think that if we see a healthier rotation, along with better performances from the guys occupying the 6th-8th spots on the rotational depth chart as needed, combined with more consistent offensive production, that would constitute a successful year. It will at least be a much more entertaining year. This team became a chore to watch near the end of summer last year. Of course, should that good stuff happen, we are likely looking at 90+ wins and a divisional crown.

The playoffs are a crapshoot. We can only hope that the team catches fire in August/September and carries it over to the payoffs. 

[sveumrules]

The last time a league's playoff field repeated was the AL in 1998/99 when NYY, BOS, CLE and TEX took all four postseason spots in consecutive years. 

Even during the post-Expansion/pre-Wild Card era (1969-93) there were only five repeat league playoff fields and that was when you only needed two teams to achieve it.

I'm not a mathmetologist, but the odds of all six of ATL, NYM, PHI, STL, LAD and SDP repeating as NL playoffs teams next year is probably quite a bit smaller than what it looks like on the surface or feels like in one's gut.
 

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The 2022 team was quite possibly the least entertaining Brewers team to watch over the last decade. This was fueled by an oftentimes anemic offense,

I still get a chuckle when people say this. We had the 11th best wRC+ in baseball and were one of the most consistent teams at scoring 4+ and 5+ runs per game. Our offense wasn’t anemic. League-wide offense was anemic because the MLB can’t stop messing with baseballs. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I still get a chuckle when people say this. We had the 11th best wRC+ in baseball and were one of the most consistent teams at scoring 4+ and 5+ runs per game. Our offense wasn’t anemic. League-wide offense was anemic because the MLB can’t stop messing with baseballs. 

Granted I did no research to back up my claim. I doubt that I would be the only one who would say that the 2022 team was kind of a chore to follow, though. Perhaps it was a lack of personality in the 2022 squad? I remember a few offensive explosion-type games, but a lot of <3 run games as well. I suppose those offensive explosions do tend to up the average runs per game, but I don't think that saying that the 2022 Brewers offense was regularly inconsistent and often anemic is out of line. 

[sveumrules]

38 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Granted I did no research to back up my claim. I doubt that I would be the only one who would say that the 2022 team was kind of a chore to follow, though. Perhaps it was a lack of personality in the 2022 squad? I remember a few offensive explosion-type games, but a lot of <3 run games as well. I suppose those offensive explosions do tend to up the average runs per game, but I don't think that saying that the 2022 Brewers offense was regularly inconsistent and often anemic is out of line. 

Brewers ended up 10th in runs scored (725) last year. Padres (705 | 13th), Guardians (698 | 15th), Mariners (690 | 18th) and Rays (666 | 21st) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Even the vaunted Phillies with big money bats like Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos and JTR only scored 22 more runs (747 | 8th) than the Brewers last year. 

The Brewers offense may have been regularly consistent and often anemic, but multiple teams made the playoffs with offenses that were more irregular and anemic.

All twelve playoff teams surrendered fewer than the Brewers 688 R (16th).

[Redd Vencher]

30 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Granted I did no research to back up my claim. I doubt that I would be the only one who would say that the 2022 team was kind of a chore to follow, though. Perhaps it was a lack of personality in the 2022 squad? I remember a few offensive explosion-type games, but a lot of <3 run games as well. I suppose those offensive explosions do tend to up the average runs per game, but I don't think that saying that the 2022 Brewers offense was regularly inconsistent and often anemic is out of line. 

Top 10 4+ R games

1. Dodgers 109

2. Cardinals 100

3. Braves 99

4. Blue Jays 98

---Red Sox 98

6. Brewers 97

7. Mets 95

8. Phillies 94

9. Yankees 93

10. Diamondbacks 91

----Gaurdians 91

 

Top 10 5+ R games

1. Dodgers 86

2. Cardinals 83

3. Mets 81

4. Braves 80

5. Yankees 79

6. Brewers 78

7. Blue Jays 77

8. Red Sox 74

9. Diamondbacks 73

10. Mariners 71

 

Top 10 <3 R games

1. Dodgers 32

2. Braves 35

3. Blue Jays 38

4. Astros 45

5. Phillies 46

---Diamondbacks 46

7. White Sox 47

----Cardinals 47

8. Red Sox 48

---Brewers 48

----Mets 48

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well I stand corrected. 

In any case, I have typically not ever been much of an "eye test" guy, but I guess I made that assumption in this case. Perhaps the numbers do not actually back up my claim, but I'll still say that the 2022 team just didn't have the excitement that past teams brought to the table.

[Redd Vencher]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Well I stand corrected. 

In any case, I have typically not ever been much of an "eye test" guy, but I guess I made that assumption in this case. Perhaps the numbers do not actually back up my claim, but I'll still say that the 2022 team just didn't have the excitement that past teams brought to the table.

The issue is people remember the low scoring games the Brewers lost than the other games. The issue without question was the pitching. We allowed 4+ runs 90 (12th most in baseball) times and only held opponents to <3 runs 51 times. (T-14th with 4 other teams)

[wiguy94]

27 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

The issue is people remember the low scoring games the Brewers lost than the other games. The issue without question was the pitching. We allowed 4+ runs 90 (12th most in baseball) times and only held opponents to <3 runs 51 times. (T-14th with 4 other teams)

I think the bigger issue is that offense was down league wide and most people just didn't pay attention to that when looking at raw OPS/BA numbers. League average OPS last year was .706 which is .022 lower than 2021. Runs per game were at 4.28 which was .25 lower than 2021. Both of these numbers seeing sizable drops despite the introduction of the universal DH is the biggest reason why people think the offense was worse than what it actually was last year.

[Redd Vencher]

22 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I think the bigger issue is that offense was down league wide and most people just didn't pay attention to that when looking at raw OPS/BA numbers. League average OPS last year was .706 which is .022 lower than 2021. Runs per game were at 4.28 which was .25 lower than 2021. Both of these numbers seeing sizable drops despite the introduction of the universal DH is the biggest reason why people think the offense was worse than what it actually was last year.

That's big part of it as well, but the perception is a team trying to win 2-1 and struggling to overcome when the "slugfest" wins are more common even in the depressed run environment.

[brewerralph]

A more consistent offense {fewer strikeouts} and a better more consistent bullpen. I like the new look bullpen and believe the brewers will have 90+ wins. 

Getting the young pitchers{minor league} another year of successful pitching is high on my list of priorities.

Signing Woody to an extension.

Getting Frelick, Weimer and Turang to the big-league club and having success. I know if they are up, we are probably not having success, but I would love to see them.

 

[Jopal78]

35 minutes ago, brewerralph said:

A more consistent offense {fewer strikeouts} and a better more consistent bullpen. I like the new look bullpen and believe the brewers will have 90+ wins. 

 

 

That’s where the rubber is going to meet the road right?

With Boxberger, Suter, Hader, Gott pitching elsewhere, there are a lot of innings to be covered by guys who are question marks, not to mention the 120 innings or so that Gustave, Perdomo, Kelley and Rogers covered last year. 
 

Absent a late addition or two, this team could bear a resemblance to the 2012 club where the bullpen did them in despite good starting pitching and good hitting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

22 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The 2022 team was quite possibly the least entertaining Brewers team to watch over the last decade.

To be fair, 2022 baseball was the least entertaining baseball I've seen in my lifetime.

[SF70]

21 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

That’s where the rubber is going to meet the road right?

With Boxberger, Suter, Hader, Gott pitching elsewhere, there are a lot of innings to be covered by guys who are question marks, not to mention the 120 innings or so that Gustave, Perdomo, Kelley and Rogers covered last year. 
 

Absent a late addition or two, this team could bear a resemblance to the 2012 club where the bullpen did them in despite good starting pitching and good hitting.

Not having Hader’s 4.24 ERA & Roger’s 5.48 ERA should help with the performance of this year‘s bullpen over  last year’s pen.

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

With Boxberger, Suter, Hader, Gott pitching elsewhere, there are a lot of innings to be covered by guys who are question marks, not to mention the 120 innings or so that Gustave, Perdomo, Kelley and Rogers covered last year. 

They’ve definitely lost a quantity of relievers, but what about their quality?

Suter (66 IP | 93 ERA- | +0.38 WPA)
Bxbrgr (64 IP | 73 ERA- | +1.04 WPA)
Gott (45 IP | 102 ERA- | -0.65 WPA)
Hader (34 IP | 105 ERA- | +0.76 WPA)
Gustave (28 IP | 95 ERA- | -0.29 WPA)
Perdomo (23 IP | 94 ERA- | +0.37 WPA)
Rogers (23 IP | 135 ERA- | -1.02 WPA)
Kelley (23 IP | 150 ERA- | -0.57 WPA)

Thats 308 IP that (outside of Boxberger) was mediocre to bad with a net Win Probability Added of essentially zero.

[Brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

That’s where the rubber is going to meet the road right?

With Boxberger, Suter, Hader, Gott pitching elsewhere, there are a lot of innings to be covered by guys who are question marks, not to mention the 120 innings or so that Gustave, Perdomo, Kelley and Rogers covered last year. 
 

Absent a late addition or two, this team could bear a resemblance to the 2012 club where the bullpen did them in despite good starting pitching and good hitting.

Thing is, though, is that none of those guys, save for Hader until June, gave us irreplaceable innings. They ranged from slightly above average (Boxberger) to average (Suter) to well below average (Kelly). 

Strzelecki, Cousins, etc., guys with promising underlying pitch profiles and underlying metrics, getting more innings will help. Granted, this bullpen will be a lot more unproven, but there’s definite talent here headlined by an elite closer in Devin. The 2012 bullpen didn’t even have that…

[Jake McKibbin]

5 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Not having Hader’s 4.24 ERA & Roger’s 5.48 ERA should help with the performance of this year‘s bullpen over  last year’s pen.

Even with just how good Devin Williams was last season, and Hader up to the end of June with his 0 earned runs, Milwaukee were 17th in Bullpen ERA last season, with 3.94. I'd expect even the mashpot this season could put up a number similar to that

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, jakedood said:

Even with just how good Devin Williams was last season, and Hader up to the end of June with his 0 earned runs, Milwaukee were 17th in Bullpen ERA last season, with 3.94. I'd expect even the mashpot this season could put up a number similar to that

Yep. Huge part of why we missed the playoffs. Contrary to popular opinion, it wasn’t the offense…

[Jake McKibbin]

It really wasn't the offense. Theoretically if Hader held one more game without a blow up, we'd have beaten the Phillies and held the tiebreaker, likely being in the playoffs.

That and the number of starts Alexander gave us... that Yankees game where we scored 8 runs and didn't win was criminal