Article: What Constitutes Success for the 2023 Milwaukee Brewers?

[Matthew Trueblood]

With the report date for pitchers and catchers less than a week away, it's time to turn our attention from offseason matters toward the 2023 Milwaukee Brewers season. In doing so, we have to answer one question first: What does this team need to do to call this year a success?

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Plainly, that's a question every fan has to answer for themselves. That doesn't mean there aren't some wrong answers, but there's a long list of right ones. This is a franchise still in search of its first World Series title, and just its second pennant. This year marks a quarter-century of play in the National League, and no National League pennant has yet belonged to the Brewers. The Bucks have won their championship. The Packers are a source of frequent frustration, but also perennial competitiveness, and they've won two titles in the lifetime of the average Brewers fan. It's fair to argue that this team, with three stars nearing free agency and one erstwhile superstar locked in for the long haul, needs to put an end to one of those droughts in order to be called a success.

It's no less valid, though, to counter that the model of sustainable competition put in place by David Stearns and carried forward, now, by Matt Arnold depends on defining success more broadly than that. For that matter, Mark Attanasio thinks along the same lines. 

"I hope to never go through a rebuild here," he said last Opening Day. "At the trade deadline, we'll be looking carefully. We definitely have some flexibility this year." He said all that in the context of trying to get the team over the hump and deeper into October, but come July, they used that flexibility in a different way. 

While Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, and Brandon Woodruff catch all the headlines, Eric Lauer is also only two years from free agency. Devin Williams is just three years away. This team has to at least contend this season, but given the way the front office and the owner each think about the challenge of winning consistently in a small market, we have to think through what shape success could take even if one of those players is traded before August begins.

Certainly, a resurgent power season from Christian Yelich would shift the narrative on his contract in a welcome way. That narrative has already outstripped any real damage the team is suffering from having signed Yelich, though. His demise is much-exaggerated, especially in light of new defensive metrics from Baseball Prospectus that show him to have been almost perfectly average over the last three years. (The previous state of the art in defensive evaluation marked him almost 10 runs worse.)

Most important, though, especially because of the way this team prefers to operate, is what we see from young players. If Jackson Chourio's development continues at anywhere near the pace and the level that it sustained last year, he'll arrive in the majors during the second half and make an immediate impact. Even failing that perfect an outcome, they should have the playing time and the normal evaluative conditions to get a firmer handle on which of Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer can be long-term regulars in the outfield. The same goes for Luis Urías and Brice Turang on the infield. Walker McKinven will try to prove, once again, the team's prowess at developing catcher defense, which could render William Contreras a superstar if it works yet again.

I'm willing to give a list of boxes that need to be checked for this year to be a success, even if the championship eludes the club again.

1. The team should resolve the uncertainty around at least two of Woodruff, Adames, and Burnes. Extensions are ideal, of course, and I'd certainly hope for at least one of those, but failing that, they should exploit the trade market and get back more controllable talent, staying competitive while sowing more of the seeds of long-term contention. Their organizational paradigm won't do well with the challenges that come if two of these guys are just a year from free agency come the fall.
2. The outfield of the medium-term future needs to be clear. If Tyrone Taylor has his hoped-for breakout, terrific, but it seems more likely that they'll need to see at least two of Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, and Chourio have good years in order to feel the kind of confidence I'm talking about. That's a reasonable hope, given the caliber of those young players, but it's far from guaranteed.
3. Another pitcher emerges. With Aaron Ashby starting spring training behind schedule, and with the myriad questions that encircle the top four starters on staff, the team needs to enjoy another breakout performance, like the ones they've gotten from Woodruff, Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Lauer in succession over the last four years. Chris Hook has more than adequately replaced Derek Johnson, which seemed so improbable upon his departure, but now he faces another tough test. Given what Hook does well, I would sooner bet on Robert Gasser or Jansen Junk than Ethan Small to make the leap required, but all three are candidates. So, for that matter, is Bryse Wilson, although his opportunities to prove himself as a starter for 2023 will be much more limited. The same goes for Gus Varland.
4. The team has to make the playoffs. This is a "last but not least" situation, if ever there was one. All four of these criteria are, to me, necessary, but none of them are sufficient without the rest.

The infallibility of some of the larger-market NL Wild Card contenders has been oversold. The Cardinals are hardly an unbeatable division favorite. The Brewers have to play some home games at Miller Park in the playoffs in order to call their season a success. That said, there are good cases to be made that they can be successful without winning the pennant, or even winning the division. Again, though, this is deeply subjective, and I welcome your thoughts and your lists of criteria for a satisfying Brewers year.

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[BlightyBrew]

The Ownership Group and FO maintain that they want to bring a WS to Milwaukee.  Which means you have to win the pennant.  The roster and moves made by both this offseason will not lead to this.

Brewers are fortunate to be in the NL Central where they façade of being competitive is huge,  However with a balanced schedule this year things will be different.

Anything above 83 wins will be a miracle.  Only way Crew makes playoffs in the near future is if the MLB adds more teams to the mickey mouse playoff brackets.

This is the beginning of the end.

[Jake McKibbin]

2 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

The Ownership Group and FO maintain that they want to bring a WS to Milwaukee.  Which means you have to win the pennant.  The roster and moves made by both this offseason will not lead to this.

Brewers are fortunate to be in the NL Central where they façade of being competitive is huge,  However with a balanced schedule this year things will be different.

Anything above 83 wins will be a miracle.  Only way Crew makes playoffs in the near future is if the MLB adds more teams to the mickey mouse playoff brackets.

This is the beginning of the end.

Or the beginning of something great.... just need to find some heat entering the playoffs, something that has, as of yet, eluded them

[Brock Beauchamp]

To me, success over the next 10-ish months is two-fold:

1. Not only make the postseason but advance at least one round. I don't consider one-and-done a success at this point.

2. Next offseason, trade Burnes while one of Woodruff or Adames should be extended by that time (preferably this spring). I'm fine with letting one of the big three walk to free agency with a QO attached but only one. And that one should not be Corbin Burnes so trade him.

[Matthew Trueblood]

21 minutes ago, jakedood said:

Or the beginning of something great.... just need to find some heat entering the playoffs, something that has, as of yet, eluded them

I really think they have the personnel to catch that heat this year, too. Chourio is such a compelling x-factor. But it’s obviously totally unpredictable, in a practical sense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I really think they have the personnel to catch that heat this year, too. Chourio is such a compelling x-factor. But it’s obviously totally unpredictable, in a practical sense.

Honestly, the potential outfield in the second half of 2023 is a compelling x-factor. What combination of Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick, and Mitchell will we see by that time? It has the potential to turn the Brewers into a really compelling outfield both defensively and offensively or it could crash down around our heads. The variance on it is massive, as it usually is with a bunch of rookies in the mix.

[monty57]

Well written article as usual. I agree with your points on what would make for a successful season.

1) Playoffs. Like last year, it's hard to call a season a success without it ending with some playoff games. Ideally, it would go even farther, but I'm a "playoffs are a crapshoot" guy, so I don't think the season is a waste if they get beat in the playoffs.

2) See how the players develop. This goes for everyone who has a future with the team. How will Peralta's arm hold up this year? How will the upper level prospects play, and when will they hit the majors? How will Contreras do in his Sophomore season with a new team? We've seen the farm move up the ranks, will this trend continue even as we start to graduate some guys to the majors? 

3) At this point, I think the pending free agents will be resolved next offseason unless there is catastrophic failure which leads to them being traded at the deadline. Therefore, the only way that affects the success of this season is that they all need to stay healthy and play well. 

I don't necessarily consider last year a failure, as they did get good development on the farm, but from last offseason to this one, we went from being considered the odds-on favorites to win the division, and maybe even make a World Series to "these guys can't keep up with the Cardinals." That certainly can't be a success.

If we're looking now until this time next year, if we're going into next year (after the rookies have more experience and we've done what we've done with the pending free agents) with fans excited and thinking that we are still a playoff favorite, then this year (12 month period) will probably have been a success.

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

The Ownership Group and FO maintain that they want to bring a WS to Milwaukee.  Which means you have to win the pennant.  The roster and moves made by both this offseason will not lead to this.

Brewers are fortunate to be in the NL Central where they façade of being competitive is huge,  However with a balanced schedule this year things will be different.

Anything above 83 wins will be a miracle.  Only way Crew makes playoffs in the near future is if the MLB adds more teams to the mickey mouse playoff brackets.

This is the beginning of the end.

So, it will be a “miracle” if a team that’s won at least 86 games the last 5 full seasons wins above 83? Interesting take.

You not a fan of the William Contreras/Jesse Winker trades?

[clancyphile]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Honestly, the potential outfield in the second half of 2023 is a compelling x-factor. What combination of Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick, and Mitchell will we see by that time? It has the potential to turn the Brewers into a really compelling outfield both defensively and offensively or it could crash down around our heads. The variance on it is massive, as it usually is with a bunch of rookies in the mix.

Indeed, it is. It's one of the reasons the Wong-for-Winker deal was downgraded, IMO. The Crew had the pitching horsepower to break in Frelick/Mitchell and possibly even Wiemer this year, so why take Winker in return? Another pitcher or a lottery ticket or two might have been better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, clancyphile said:

Indeed, it is. It's one of the reasons the Wong-for-Winker deal was downgraded, IMO. The Crew had the pitching horsepower to break in Frelick/Mitchell and possibly even Wiemer this year, so why take Winker in return? Another pitcher or a lottery ticket or two might have been better.

I like the Winker deal primarily because it was buying low on a formerly consistent player but yeah, I see your point here.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I like the Winker deal primarily because it was buying low on a formerly consistent player but yeah, I see your point here.

I don't. Yelich, Taylor and Mitchell especially have a storied injury history. Having offensive depth theoretically keeps the team from having to rely on the Billy McKinneys of the world to provide runs. What good are a couple 17-year-old lottery ticket types gonna do for a team that wants to contend this year? If they were rebuilding? Sure. Not now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't. Yelich, Taylor and Mitchell especially have a storied injury history. Having offensive depth theoretically keeps the team from having to rely on the Billy McKinneys of the world to provide runs. What good are a couple 17-year-old lottery ticket types gonna do for a team that wants to contend this year? If they were rebuilding? Sure. Not now.

I don't really consider Winker an outfield option at this point in his career and would rather see the Brewers mix and match their OF prospects over giving him significant time in the field.

[clancyphile]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't really consider Winker an outfield option at this point in his career and would rather see the Brewers mix and match their OF prospects over giving him significant time in the field.

The Brewers can't just be thinking about this year. There needs to be a constant pipeline of talent to the major-league team. I'd rather pump $8.75 million into scouting and development than into a free agent or a player like Winker.

Barring a massive and significant shift in baseball's economic realities, the Brewers will need to be constantly producing top prospects across the board.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, clancyphile said:

The Brewers can't just be thinking about this year. There needs to be a constant pipeline of talent to the major-league team. I'd rather pump $8.75 million into scouting and development than into a free agent or a player like Winker.

Barring a massive and significant shift in baseball's economic realities, the Brewers will need to be constantly producing top prospects across the board.

I agree but I'm not sure Wong was the right player to do that. Frankly, I would have been fine going in either direction with the Wong trade. I can see arguments for picking up someone like Winker or trading for prospects and don't feel particularly committed on the subject.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree but I'm not sure Wong was the right player to do that. Frankly, I would have been fine going in either direction with the Wong trade. I can see arguments for picking up someone like Winker or trading for prospects and don't feel particularly committed on the subject.

It's a total hypothetical to really even think that there was a player-for-prospect deal out there for Wong. It was out there that the M's had soured on Winker and were looking to move him, and the Brewers had an obvious hole at DH. We also know how that front office loves left-handed power with the short porch in right at AmFam Field. Lets not forget, too, that Abraham Toro just turned 26, and was once quite a well-regarded power-hitting infield prospect. Should he find that stroke as a Brewer, he could very well join that pipeline.

[clancyphile]

15 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

It's a total hypothetical to really even think that there was a player-for-prospect deal out there for Wong. It was out there that the M's had soured on Winker and were looking to move him, and the Brewers had an obvious hole at DH. We also know how that front office loves left-handed power with the short porch in right at AmFam Field. Lets not forget, too, that Abraham Toro just turned 26, and was once quite a well-regarded power-hitting infield prospect. Should he find that stroke as a Brewer, he could very well join that pipeline.

I'd have been much happier if it was just Wong-for-Toro. Winker, to me, would have been nice in 2020-2022 as a full-time DH, but given how Frelick/Mitchell/Wiemer are now knocking on the MLB door or already through... Winker makes little sense.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

7 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I'd have been much happier if it was just Wong-for-Toro. Winker, to me, would have been nice in 2020-2022 as a full-time DH, but given how Frelick/Mitchell/Wiemer are now knocking on the MLB door or already through... Winker makes little sense.

Depending on 3-4 rookies to come in an make a meaningful contribution offensively to a playoff contender is a huge risk that I'm glad the team has decided to mitigate. Having Winker on the team means that they have the luxury of not having to throw all of them to the fire at the same time. 

[monty57]

I think that there is a very high probability that Winker will easily outperform all of the rookies at the plate. As a DH, Winker is a much better choice than any of the OF prospects. However, all of the rookies derive positive value in the field as well, which is where Winker falters.

Winker was a good pick-up, as he'll help solidify the offense, shouldn't be required to play much in the OF, and is here on a one-year deal, allowing the team to wean in the prospects but opening a spot for them next year when they have more experience.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

So, it will be a “miracle” if a team that’s won at least 86 games 4 out of 5 last full seasons wins above 83? Interesting take.

You not a fan of the William Contreras/Jesse Winker trades?

Look at the reality, the Brewers are taking a gamble with both of these players. The Brewers are not just asking Winker to comeback from surgery to both his knee, and for a herniated disc in his neck to play professional level baseball, they're asking him as he approaches 30 to come back from those operations and be some semblance of the guy he was when he was 27.

Herniated discs are tricky injuries and the surgery isn't always a success. Peyton Manning had surgery for a herniated disc in February of '10 and wasn't game ready again until September '12. The Brewers will have no idea what they have in Winker until he gets out on the field and actually performs when the games matter, yet Milwaukee is counting on him to be a contributor this year. 

Contreras was an All-Star and isn't even arbitration eligible, yet the Braves swapped him out for an older, more expensive catcher with inferior hitting stats. Why? Maybe their evaluators reached the conclusion his defense behind the plate wasn't good enough for an MLB contender, maybe  maybe they concluded his offensive numbers were fluky and likely not sustainable given his minor league track record, who knows? Again the Brewers won't know what they have for sure until he plays in games that count. 

Given what they gave up to acquire these players and where the bar is set from last year, they're not taking a huge gamble with either player, but they're gambling nonetheless that these two guys will produce. 

In a way, those two players probably represent the chances of the Brewers season. If they both perform at least to expectations the Brewers can probably go toe to toe with Cardinals for the NL Central crown. If both of those players flop and the Brewers fall behind in the Division race, the season will be a failure and  they probably start breaking up this group in July

 

[monty57]

17 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

In a way, those two players probably represent the chances of the Brewers season. If they both perform at least to expectations the Brewers can probably go toe to toe with Cardinals for the NL Central crown. If both of those players flop and the Brewers fall behind in the Division race, the season will be a failure and  they probably start breaking up this group in July

McCutchen hit for a wRC+ of 98 as the primary DH/top of the order bat last year. That's the bar for Winker, whose career average for wRC+ is 126.

Narvaez was a 1.1 (Fangraphs) WAR player last year. That's the bar for Contreras who accumulated 2.4 WAR last year.

 

Even if the new guys underperform to the level of the guys they're replacing, but we just don't have the excessive injuries to our starting pitching that we had last year, we should still be in the playoffs, which we just missed last year even with McCutchen entrenched at the top of the order, Narvaez hugely underperforming at catcher, a complete mental meltdown because someone was traded, and a slew of injuries to our pitching staff.

We weren't nearly as bad last year as some posters make it out to be. We have most of the pieces back, and Winker and Contreras should be big upgrades at their positions.

[Brewcrew82]

29 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Look at the reality, the Brewers are taking a gamble with both of these players. The Brewers are not just asking Winker to comeback from surgery to both his knee, and for a herniated disc in his neck to play professional level baseball, they're asking him as he approaches 30 to come back from those operations and be some semblance of the guy he was when he was 27.

Herniated discs are tricky injuries and the surgery isn't always a success. Peyton Manning had surgery for a herniated disc in February of '10 and wasn't game ready again until September '12. The Brewers will have no idea what they have in Winker until he gets out on the field and actually performs when the games matter, yet Milwaukee is counting on him to be a contributor this year. 

Contreras was an All-Star and isn't even arbitration eligible, yet the Braves swapped him out for an older, more expensive catcher with inferior hitting stats. Why? Maybe their evaluators reached the conclusion his defense behind the plate wasn't good enough for an MLB contender, maybe  maybe they concluded his offensive numbers were fluky and likely not sustainable given his minor league track record, who knows? Again the Brewers won't know what they have for sure until he plays in games that count. 

Given what they gave up to acquire these players and where the bar is set from last year, they're not taking a huge gamble with either player, but they're gambling nonetheless that these two guys will produce. 

In a way, those two players probably represent the chances of the Brewers season. If they both perform at least to expectations the Brewers can probably go toe to toe with Cardinals for the NL Central crown. If both of those players flop and the Brewers fall behind in the Division race, the season will be a failure and  they probably start breaking up this group in July

 

They’re two all star hitters who represent clear upgrade over the guys they’re replacing in the lineup. That’s not something to minimize…

Is there risk? Of course. But you could say the same thing with virtually any non-established superstar in the majors.

I’m on the record as being very optimistic about Winker. This is a guy who, previous to last season, was a top 10 hitter against RHP in MLB. And even last year, when he was dealing with injury and playing in one of the least hitter friendly parks in the majors, was still an asset at the plate (109 wRC+) due to his elite walk rate. Easily better than McCutchen, who saw the majority of plate appearances for us at DH last season. We’ll see how the power looks coming off surgery, but the Brewers are optimistic, and I see no reason not to be considering he’s only 29. At the very least, he represents an upgrade over McCutchen, with the potential to be much more. 
 

As for Contreras, the Braves were hesitant to part with him and wanted us to take D’Arnaud instead, but we held out. The main reason why they traded for Murphy is because they wanted an upgrade on defense. They gladly would have held on to Contreras as their DH and part-time catcher if we hadn’t been adamant about him being part of the return. After all, he only was the starting DH for the NL in the all-star game and posted the highest OPS for a C last season…Will he repeat those types of numbers this season? Probably not, but he still represents a clear upgrade with the bat over what we received from the C position last season. Defensively, he was below average, but so was Omar Narvaez when we acquired him…And he’s still only 25.

I get you like to be a contrarian, but these moves inarguably upgraded the roster.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I’m on the record as being very optimistic about Winker. This is a guy who, previous to last season, was a top 10 hitter against RHP in MLB. And even last year, when he was dealing with injury and playing in one of the least hitter friendly parks in the majors, was still an asset at the plate (109 wRC+) due to his elite walk rate. Easily better than McCutchen, who saw the majority of plate appearances for us at DH last season. We’ll see how the power looks coming off surgery, but the Brewers are optimistic, and I see no reason not to be considering he’s only 29. At the very least, he represents an upgrade over McCutchen, with the potential to be much more. 

I've noted this before but Winker also underperformed his xwOBA by .032 which was the 12th biggest underperformance in the MLB. Among qualified MLB hitters his .345 xwOBA was 34th in the MLB (would have been second on the Brewers behind Rowdy's .349). 

Winker was injured and one of the biggest underperformers of his expected stats but still managed to put up a 109 wRC+. Obviously it's not a guarantee that he bounces back to even his career average of 126 wRC+, but the odds are pretty darn high that he is an upgrade over Cutch as our primary DH.

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

The Brewers can't just be thinking about this year. There needs to be a constant pipeline of talent to the major-league team. I'd rather pump $8.75 million into scouting and development than into a free agent or a player like Winker.

Barring a massive and significant shift in baseball's economic realities, the Brewers will need to be constantly producing top prospects across the board.

That’s admirable farsightedness in theory, but the CBA long ago made it almost impossible to spend an extra $8+ million on scouting and development with any worthy return on investment. Much better to spend it on a guy with much-needed offensive upside for the parent club, even if that value be confined to the short term, as long as you aren’t going to wait too long to make a move if he’s awful again.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

We weren't nearly as bad last year as some posters make it out to be. We have most of the pieces back, and Winker and Contreras should be big upgrades at their positions.

But I think this is a fallacy. Heightened expectations, absolutely, and winning 86 games isn't nothing, but compared to the other contending clubs in the NL, they weren't very good. They went 25-27 against the NL Playoff teams from last year. More importantly, take a look at the run differential of the Brewers and the teams above them from '22.

LAD +334

ATL +180

NYM +166

SD +146

StL +135

PHI + 65

MIL +47

But for Philadelphia, they were blown out in terms of run differential by the other playoff teams. 

The Brewers certainly have less overall talent than most of the above teams, so they're not likely just going to roll through teams. Thus, even if everything else breaks their way ask yourself what a reasonable bounce back is for '23. A run differential of +115 (their run differential in '21)? Absent an unpredictable implosion from one of the other top dogs,  even +115 probably still puts them shooting for the 2nd wild card.

The Brewers an okay club, fringe playoff team, and there's a reason they play the games and don't hand out awards based on the stat sheet. But my guess is they are going to need to have some significant luck to see the post season in '23.

[monty57]

Yes, @Jopal78, it is going to be difficult for the $120M Brewers to have the firepower of the $355M Mets, $272M Yankees, $256M Padres, $243M Phillies, $221M Dodgers, etc.

The Brewers laid an egg last year, as talent-wise I think they were closer to the '21 team than what they showed last year. A number of things went wrong, but I don't think talent-wise they were nearly as bad as they showed. Our team scored 725 runs in '22 vs 738 in '21. The bigger problem was that we had a lot of injuries to the pitching staff, which gave up 688 Runs in '22 vs 623 in '21.

We do have to hope for health, but so does every team. When healthy, our pitching staff probably should be closer to the third best in the majors, like they were in '21, than what they showed last year.

The offense is a bit more uncertain, as we've had more changes. On the positive side:

1) On the offensive side, the '21 CFs set the bar pretty low. Mitchell doesn't have to do much to overcome their offensive production.

2) While McCutchen's 98 wRC+ isn't horrible, it isn't good for a DH, and he never should have been cemented into the top of the order. Almost any of our hitters would have been a better choice as a #3/4 hitter vs RHP. Winker should be an upgrade here.

3) Adames had a dismal .278 BABIP, causing his OBP to suffer (.298). This would hurt anywhere, but it really hurts when he sat in the 2-hole all year. While that could happen again, it shouldn't be expected.

4) Narvaez had a down year offensively, and Caratini wore out as the season went on. Even with a Sophomore slump, Contreras should be an offensive upgrade.

On the negative:

1) Renfroe was solid offensively. Taylor has decent overall numbers in his career, but he probably won't match the offense Renfroe posted. Even assumng Frelick or Wiemer are called up, we could see a decline offensively here. On the positive, we should see better defense.

2) Anderson hasn't been very good the past two seasons. He could bounce back, but he could also post another 0.5 WAR like he did last year. Turang is waiting in the wings, but I don't know that they'll match the production Wong gave us last year.

 

So overall, I see reason to believe that the offense could be a little better, and the pitching should be a lot better than we saw last year. That would put us around where we were in '21. But, I'm an optimist. The games still need to be played.