Padres extend Darvish: 6 years, $108 million

[homer]

Given he's 36 years old (will be 37 in August), you can figure Burnes will get...more.

[jerichoholicninja]

While that's not a ridiculous amount of money, a 6 year deal for a 36 year old pitcher with 1 TJ already doesn't seem very wise. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, that's certainly a decision that could be made.

Not the decision I'd make but it's certainly a decision.

[MrTPlush]

I wouldn't give him that if he was 30. Since 2017 he really hasn't been that good. The shortened 2020 and last year are his only great years. 

Considering he is already well past his prime...yikes. 

[homer]

Just now, MrTPlush said:

I wouldn't give him that if he was 30. Since 2017 he really hasn't been that good. The shortened 2020 and last year are his only great years. 

Considering he is already well past his prime...yikes. 

He was pretty darn good last year.

[DR28]

Man this is a great contract to start talks with Brandon... Start with this offer and increase to 6/$120 M if need be.

I would sure feel a lot better about our future if we had Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby as our top 3.

[MrTPlush]

2 minutes ago, homer said:

He was pretty darn good last year.

Right, I acknowledge that. Padres are basically banking on 2021 being a blip, throwing away 2018 due to injury, 2019 coming back from injury, and him staying healthy. If you do all that, this only seems like a poor decision purely based on signing a 36.5 year old pitcher to a 6 year contract. 

[homer]

5 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Right, I acknowledge that. Padres are basically banking on 2021 being a blip, throwing away 2018 due to injury, 2019 coming back from injury, and him staying healthy. If you do all that, this only seems like a poor decision purely based on signing a 36.5 year old pitcher to a 6 year contract. 

Oh jeez. Derp. That's what I get for not reading the whole post. My bad.

[MrTPlush]

6 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Man this is a great contract to start to Brandon with... Start with this offer and increase to 6/$120 M if need be.

Woodruff is better, has a better recent track record, and will hit FA going into age 32...not 36.

More like 6/$180mil as a starting point. Probably would want 8 years on any extension and still probably want near $30mil avg, If Woodruff would take 6/$120mil the Brewers would have done it long long ago.

[DR28]

7 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Woodruff is better, has a better recent track record, and will hit FA going into age 32...not 36.

More like 6/$180mil as a starting point. Probably would want 8 years on any extension and still probably want near $30mil avg, If Woodruff would take 6/$120mil the Brewers would have done it long long ago.

Luis Castillo signed with Seattle for the same contract as Darvish... Woodruff and Castillo are pretty damn comparable comps.

Not sure why Woodruff would be that much more expensive than Castillo.

[wiguy94]

Padres extending a 36 year old to a 6 year deal to lower the AAV to reduce their tax payments? Still feels like a weird deal to make. There's a world where they are eating 3 years of $16M each for a guy to be retired. They are just going all in on a championship in the next few years.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

Luis Castillo signed with Seattle for the same contract as Darvish... Woodruff and Castillo are pretty damn comparable comps.

Not sure why Woodruff would be that much more expensive than Castillo.

Using 2021 & 2022 numbers from Fangraphs:

Luis Castillo: born 12/12/92, service time 5.101, 5 yr / $108M WAR 3.8/3.7, ERA- 75/45, ERA 3.98/2.99, FIP 3.75/3.07 K/BB 2.56/3.71

Chris Bassitt: born 2/22/89, service time 6.130, 3 yr / $63M WAR 3.3/2.7, ERA- 77/90, ERA 3.15/3.42, FIP 3.34/3.66, K/BB 4.08/3.41

Yu Darvish: born 8/16/86, Service time 11.00, 6 yr / $108M WAR 2.9/4.2, ERA- 105/80, ERA 4.22/3.10, FIP 3.90/3.31, K/BB 4.52/5.32

Woodruff: born 2/10/1993, Service time 4.161, WAR 4.7/3.5, ERA- 61/75, ERA 3.27/3.15, FIP 2.96/3.08, K/BB 4.91/4.52

Note the birthday... Woodruff turns 30 tomorrow. Happy birthday!

 

Castillo is a good comp. I added the others as two good pitchers who have also recently signed. Bassitt was a free agent. Darvish is signed through '23 for $19M, so the extension would presumably begin in '24. Castillo had one arby year remaining, so the contract bought out that year and four years of free agency. Woodruff has two arby years remaining (2023 & 2024).

Regardless, it appears that the low-$20's is the going rate for guys of this caliber. Castillo's contract also includes a vesting option if he pitches 180 innings in 2027, the option vests. There is also a Tommy John clause where the team would get a $5M option for 2028 if he has TJ surgery from '25-'27. 

Nothing too crazy, and he was one year closer to free agency than Woodruff. I would think a Woodruff extension would be similar to Castillo's, and maybe a little less as it would be for two arby years and only three years of free agency. If we assume they figured around $15M for Castillo's final arby year, the remaining contract would be at $23.25/year.

I would assume he'd get the $10.8M he's scheduled for this year, around $15M next year, and if he got the same $23.25/year for his free agent years, the deal would be 5 years / $95.55

The big questions then become: 

1) Would the Brewers want to risk paying Woodruff around $23.25M/year through his age 35 season? Yelich's contract goes through '28, so he would be getting his $26M/year throughout Woodruff's extension.

2) Is Woodruff interested in extending? It takes both sides to want to make a deal, and he may want to test free agency.

 

Woodruff is the only one of the big three upcoming free agents who I think may make some sense to sign. I just don't think the Brewers are going to risk paying him that much into his mid-30's, with he and Yelich eating up around 40% of payroll. 

[TURBO]

6 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Woodruff is the only one of the big three upcoming free agents who I think may make some sense to sign. I just don't think the Brewers are going to risk paying him that much into his mid-30's, with he and Yelich eating up around 40% of payroll. 

Would it be smart to do this with Woodruff?  Probably not.

Would I do it if given the chance?  Hell yes!

[MrTPlush]

4 hours ago, DR28 said:

Luis Castillo signed with Seattle for the same contract as Darvish... Woodruff and Castillo are pretty damn comparable comps.

Not sure why Woodruff would be that much more expensive than Castillo.

Apologies, I must have missed Brandon Woodruff put up a near 1.4 WHIP and  4 ERA in 2021.

If Brandon woodruff is available for 6/$120mil and we haven’t gotten it done…this franchise is pretty darn stupid. I’m guessing the real reason is the fact it would take way more than that.

[BlightyBrew]

 San Diego a small market.  Good to see an ownership group invest in the team and ballpark to generate multiple streams of revenue that goes back into the team.  A city and market that is shadowed by LA.

Meanwhile, lets play xgolf and have a tailgate in a parking lot.

[DR28]

14 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Apologies, I must have missed Brandon Woodruff put up a near 1.4 WHIP and  4 ERA in 2021.

If Brandon woodruff is available for 6/$120mil and we haven’t gotten it done…this franchise is pretty darn stupid. I’m guessing the real reason is the fact it would take way more than that.

Big deal.... In 2019 Woodruff had an ERA near 3.70 and WHIP of 1.2.

Woodruff and Castillo are very comparable pitchers... If Brandon is worth $70 million more than Castillo, no shot he signs an extension with us. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

 San Diego a small market.  Good to see an ownership group invest in the team and ballpark to generate multiple streams of revenue that goes back into the team.  A city and market that is shadowed by LA.

Meanwhile, lets play xgolf and have a tailgate in a parking lot.

The San Diego metro area has approximately 4 million people living in it and they are in the most populous state in the US.  Milwaukee's metro area is about 1.5 million.  Milwaukee sits in the shadow of Chicago, also a large city with 2 MLB teams.  San Diego also sits adjacent to Tijuana, a Mexican metro area of about 3 million more people - and the Padres have appropriately made a lot of efforts marketing their franchise to Mexico.  Outside the immediate metro area of Milwaukee and Madison, the Brewers have a bunch of farmland to look to for added local revenue.

San Diego is a small market compared to LA....Milwaukee is a small market compared to San Diego and that's not even considering the revenue advantages the Padres currently have with property they own around the ballpark and the financial disparity between ownership groups of those teams.

[homer]

7 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

 San Diego a small market.  Good to see an ownership group invest in the team and ballpark to generate multiple streams of revenue that goes back into the team.  A city and market that is shadowed by LA.

Meanwhile, lets play xgolf and have a tailgate in a parking lot.

Your point that the Brewers are cheap has been noted....many times over.

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

 San Diego a small market.  Good to see an ownership group invest in the team and ballpark to generate multiple streams of revenue that goes back into the team.  A city and market that is shadowed by LA.

Meanwhile, lets play xgolf and have a tailgate in a parking lot.

San Diego isn't a small market, it's a mid-market. And the team invested heavily around Petco which has been wildly profitable for them, which allows them to spend even outside mid-market territory. Couple that with the Padres being the only game in town and they spend an out-sized amount on payroll.

But we also have to give props to Seidler for spending like a crazy man. It doesn't have to be one or the other.

[MrTPlush]

3 hours ago, DR28 said:

Big deal.... In 2019 Woodruff had an ERA near 3.70 and WHIP of 1.2.

Woodruff and Castillo are very comparable pitchers... If Brandon is worth $70 million more than Castillo, no shot he signs an extension with us. 

You are comparing Woodruff's numbers in his first year getting a starting rotation gig to Castillo's 5th year. That isn't comparable and Woodruff putting up those numbers in his first opportunity to start is actually incredibly impressive. 

There is literally not a single non-counting statistic Castillo has over Woodruff on Bref over their careers. Some are close, but others Woodruff has a noticeable advantage (ERA, FIP, WHIP, K9, BB9)

 

 

[monty57]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

But we also have to give props to Seidler for spending like a crazy man.

That's like giving props to someone who takes his retirement fund and blows it in Vegas.

The only way I'll give him props for what he's done is that when it completely blows up and he's left with an underperforming, expensive MLB team with no prospects left to help out, it will serve as a good example to all the fiscally responsible owners that they are correct in their decisions. I will celebrate anything that might help keep Attanasio from slipping and doing something dumb.

Honestly, it's not really the overspending the Padres are doing. Heck, maybe they have a lot of excess revenue and they'll be fine financially. It's that they had an unbelievably strong farm system and they traded it all away. I'm interested to see how quickly Washington can turn things around with everyone they got back in the Soto deal.

It's not just a small market thing. No good owner/GM would throw away the future like that. At least no good owner/GM who wasn't planning on selling the team or leaving town in the near future. If they want to be competitive with the Dodgers, they should look at how often the Dodgers trade away prospects vs how often they let guys walk and replace them with rookies from the farm.

If the Brewers right now traded away Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, etc. to add a couple of expensive pieces to this team, I'd be crushed.

[DR28]

3 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

You are comparing Woodruff's numbers in his first year getting a starting rotation gig to Castillo's 5th year. That isn't comparable and Woodruff putting up those numbers in his first opportunity to start is actually incredibly impressive. 

There is literally not a single non-counting statistic Castillo has over Woodruff on Bref over their careers. Some are close, but others Woodruff has a noticeable advantage (ERA, FIP, WHIP, K9, BB9)

 

 

Regardless, Woodruff is not worth $70+ M more than Castillo.

[owbc]

The Mariners had the advantage of Castillo coming over and getting excited about pitching on a contending team in a pennant race for the first time in his career. The way I've seen it reported is that Castillo asked his agent for the extension about 48 hours after Julio Rodriguez signed his megadeal. They also inked it right before everything went wild in free agency. The Castillo contract is surely the floor of what Woodruff could reasonably get. 

Is Woodruff going to go to the Brewers this year and ask for an extension? I think it would take the young guys coming up and having a good year and getting him excited about the future in Milwaukee. Maybe it's not the same as landing on a team with a generational player like Julio Rodriguez, but I do think Woodruff needs to be excited about staying in Milwaukee if a similar deal is getting done. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

That's like giving props to someone who takes his retirement fund and blows it in Vegas.

The only way I'll give him props for what he's done is that when it completely blows up and he's left with an underperforming, expensive MLB team with no prospects left to help out, it will serve as a good example to all the fiscally responsible owners that they are correct in their decisions. I will celebrate anything that might help keep Attanasio from slipping and doing something dumb.

Honestly, it's not really the overspending the Padres are doing. Heck, maybe they have a lot of excess revenue and they'll be fine financially. It's that they had an unbelievably strong farm system and they traded it all away. I'm interested to see how quickly Washington can turn things around with everyone they got back in the Soto deal.

It's not just a small market thing. No good owner/GM would throw away the future like that. At least no good owner/GM who wasn't planning on selling the team or leaving town in the near future. If they want to be competitive with the Dodgers, they should look at how often the Dodgers trade away prospects vs how often they let guys walk and replace them with rookies from the farm.

If the Brewers right now traded away Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, etc. to add a couple of expensive pieces to this team, I'd be crushed.

Oh, I strongly disagree. It's fun watching teams take different approaches and it's wildly entertaining to see a mid-market team scream "DAMN THE TORPEDOS, FULL SPEED AHEAD!" and throw convention out the window.

Yeah, it might end in disaster. It also might end in a world championship. Either way, the ride there is so much fun.

[monty57]

33 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I strongly disagree. It's fun watching teams take different approaches and it's wildly entertaining to see a mid-market team scream "DAMN THE TORPEDOS, FULL SPEED AHEAD!" and throw convention out the window.

Yeah, it might end in disaster. It also might end in a world championship. Either way, the ride there is so much fun.

I'll agree that it's fun (or at least interesting) watching a non-Brewers team do something like that. Not so much if it were a team I was cheering for.