Article: Grading The Brewers Offseason: The Moves the Crew Made This Winter

[clancyphile]

The Brewers made a number of moves during the 2022-2023 offseason. With roughly a week before pitchers and catchers report to American Family Fields in Maryvale, Arizona, how did the Brewers do with the trades, free-agent signings, and other assorted moves they made?

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s look at the biggest moves the Brewers made this offseason: 

November 18, 2022

Acquired RHP Javy Guerra for a player to be named later
Guerra has seen some action in four MLB seasons after converting from shortstop following 2018. It remains to be seen what the cost is, but Guerra could easily compete for a back-of-the-bullpen spot. Grade: C+

Waived LHP Brent Suter
Brent Suter has been a back-end starter and reliable bullpen option since 2016. As a 31st-round draft pick, he proved to be a steal. The Brewers placed him on waivers and saw him get claimed by Colorado. Suter could have been locked up to a reasonable long-term deal, probably for about $3 million a year, but given his reliability in multiple roles, that may have been money well spent. At least the Hader trade gave the Brewers some potential long-term pieces, directly (Gasser) and indirectly (Contreras). Grade: F

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November 23, 2022

Acquired RHPs Janson Junk and Elvis Peguero and LHP Adam Seminaris from the Angels for OF Hunter Renfroe
Renfroe was due an eight-figure salary by most arbitration estimates, and the Brewers have Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer, all of whom have made at least one Top 100 prospects list, knocking at the door of MLB, if they’re not already there. So, dealing Renfroe was a necessity on that front alone. Getting some serious pitching depth was a plus. Grade: B

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December 2, 2022

Acquired DH Jesse Winker and OF Abraham Toro from the Mariners for 2B Kolten Wong and cash
Wong was also due an eight-figure salary after the Brewers exercised a team option. He was not a bad second baseman, but the Brewers had Brice Turang knocking on the door of the majors after a superb full season at Nashville. Toro could be a superb bench asset with his versatility, and he flashes pop as a switch-hitter. But Winker re-crowds the outfield, and it may have been better to get a minor-league pitcher or two. Grade: B-

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December 12, 2022

Acquired C/DH William Contreras and RHPs Joel Payamps and Justin Yeager for OF Esteury Ruiz in a three-team trade with the A’s and Braves
The Brewers were looking for an upgrade at catcher after letting Omar Narvaez walk after three up-and-down seasons. They got it and two more potential bullpen assets, and all it cost was Esteury Ruiz, a fast outfielder behind Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, and Jackson Chourio in terms of the Brewers farm system. A superb move. Grade: A+++

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December 14, 2022

Acquired IF Owen Miller from the Guardians for a player to be named later
A longtime Brewers fan, Miller could shore up the bench for the Crew, although the cost remains to be seen. He’s flashing some serious pop and can play all over the infield. But who the Brewers will send back remains to be seen. Grade: C+

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December 21, 2022

Waived C Mario Feliciano
Yes, the Brewers had acquired Payton Henry back from the Marlins for an outfielder from one of their DSL teams. But Feliciano was still a solid third option for the 40-man, recovering decently from a 2021 season marred by injury and a 2020 season lost to the pandemic. Again, the Crew could have at least tried to get a lottery ticket back. Grade: D

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January 9, 2023

Signed LHP Wade Miley
Miley was part of the 2018 team that made an incredible run to the NLCS. Since then, he’d been a solid starter around the league. Here, the Brewers added some excellent depth behind Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Aaron Ashby. Grade: B+

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January 23, 2023

Signed 3B/OF Brian Anderson
Brian Anderson put together some solid seasons for the Marlins and has seen action primarily at third base and in right field. While Anderson could rebound and play well throughout the 2023 season, it does block Turang from coming up, if only indirectly and incompletely. Grade: B-

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Overall
If you are looking at 2023, this offseason has seen brilliance and solid depth signings. The most questionable move is putting a solid left-handed bullpen option on waivers. That said, for the Brewers, at least four players have hit a Top 100 prospects list that is knocking on the door, and these moves are delaying their arrival. Grade: B+

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[DR28]

Strongly disagree on the Winker grade... Will be a A+++ like Contreras when he shows us all that he's the same hitter as before Seattle.

Very excited thinking about Winker and Contreras in the middle of our lineup.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I was a Suter fan too, and was a bit sad to see him go.  But I also understand why logistically they went that route. Giving that move an F grade kills the credibility of this article for me. I get that this is a fan site and there is going to be some editorialization, but that's overkill.

[Outlander]

I don't think Winker crowds the outfield any further, just like McCutchen didn't make it any more crowded last year. He is a DH that may have to play OF every once in a while.

Love that you have the Suter move as an F, keep that Suter love going until the end.

Feliciano had no value, the Tigers were able to outright him to the minors. Developing him is another story.

Overall grade is a little high, just don't think it was an above average off season. In order to be above average I really think they need better bullpen pickups.

Also, I think it is fair to grade the off season in hindsight. If they give some younger guys opportunities because internal evaluation say they are ready then the grade may be better. If they hive these guys significant playing time and they fail then the front office has to be questioned. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

55 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Strongly disagree on the Winker grade... Will be a A+++ like Contreras when he shows us all that he's the same hitter as before Seattle.

Very excited thinking about Winker and Contreras in the middle of our lineup.

I think the B- is a pretty fair grade on the Winker deal.

The thing about the Winker deal is that he will have to rake to post big value due to his defensive limitations being to such an extent he'll see most of his time at DH.

And giving up Wong is a considerable loss of value. Again, I like the deal but Winker would have to post a monster OPS to make it an A+ deal, like top-of-the-league hitting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

40 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Love that you have the Suter move as an F, keep that Suter love going until the end.

When we saw the author and title of the piece, we all knew the Suter grade going in, right? 😄

[clancyphile]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

When we saw the author and title of the piece, we all knew the Suter grade going in, right? 😄

It's one thing to deal him, and get some possible value in return. A DSL lottery ticket or two would have been much better than a waiver claim.

Same with Feliciano.

[wiguy94]

I still don't understand the F grade for Suter. Suter was not flexible the last two years. He has been one of the lowest leverage relief pitchers in baseball. Losing him as a person sucks, but $3M for the last guy in the bullpen is just a waste of an already limited budget. 

[wiguy94]

Also giving the Feliciano move a D is pretty harsh. The Tigers DFA'd him and nobody in the MLB claimed him. He clearly isn't valued as someone deserving of taking up a 40-man spot at this point.

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I still don't understand the F grade for Suter. Suter was not flexible the last two years. He has been one of the lowest leverage relief pitchers in baseball. Losing him as a person sucks, but $3M for the last guy in the bullpen is just a waste of an already limited budget. 

Clancy is what you call a Suter stan. Even going back to when Suter was in the minors and he'd consistently rank him as the team's #1 prospect.

In reality, though, Suter has basically zero overall value, which is why a trade didn't occur. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

It's one thing to deal him, and get some possible value in return. A DSL lottery ticket or two would have been much better than a waiver claim.

Same with Feliciano.

Oh, I’m just having fun about the fact we all know you hated that deal. 

[monty57]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think the B- is a pretty fair grade on the Winker deal.

The thing about the Winker deal is that he will have to rake to post big value due to his defensive limitations being to such an extent he'll see most of his time at DH.

And giving up Wong is a considerable loss of value. Again, I like the deal but Winker would have to post a monster OPS to make it an A+ deal, like top-of-the-league hitting.

I agree, but I'm not overly concerned with the WAR he ends up with, as we all know that WAR is not handed out generously to DHs. I like it as a stat, but it's really not a fan of the DH.

If Winker gets anywhere close to the 142/147 wRC+ level he was at in '21 and '22, he will be extremely valuable to this team, regardless of what the WAR formulas say.

Edit: David Ortiz posted a 147 wRC+ in 2004 and Fangraphs credits him with 4.2 WAR, so there's that benchmark to follow. It took a 175 wRC+ in 2007 to get his high-water mark of 6.3 WAR. 

Winker is not peak David Ortiz, but if he hits like he did a couple of years ago, he's pretty darn good.

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I agree, but I'm not overly concerned with the WAR he ends up with, as we all know that WAR is not handed out generously to DHs. I like it as a stat, but it's really not a fan of the DH.

If Winker gets anywhere close to the 142/147 wRC+ level he was at in '21 and '22, he will be extremely valuable to this team, regardless of what the WAR formulas say.

Edit: David Ortiz posted a 147 wRC+ in 2004 and Fangraphs credits him with 4.2 WAR, so there's that benchmark to follow. It took a 175 wRC+ in 2007 to get his high-water mark of 6.3 WAR. 

Winker is not peak David Ortiz, but if he hits like he did a couple of years ago, he's pretty darn good.

Agreed. I like him AT MINIMUM in that he can get on base and put the ball in play, the two areas where the offense struggled the most last year. 

Hopefully the power comes back now that he's healthy, and we'll really be in business. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

I agree, but I'm not overly concerned with the WAR he ends up with, as we all know that WAR is not handed out generously to DHs. I like it as a stat, but it's really not a fan of the DH.

If Winker gets anywhere close to the 142/147 wRC+ level he was at in '21 and '22, he will be extremely valuable to this team, regardless of what the WAR formulas say.

Edit: David Ortiz posted a 147 wRC+ in 2004 and Fangraphs credits him with 4.2 WAR, so there's that benchmark to follow. It took a 175 wRC+ in 2007 to get his high-water mark of 6.3 WAR. 

Winker is not peak David Ortiz, but if he hits like he did a couple of years ago, he's pretty darn good.

Oh yeah, he can definitely provide value, which is why I generally like the deal, he's just working from a pretty severe disadvantage given his defensive limitations.

And it's not as if Wong was a slouch himself. The bar for Winker to hit even an equilibrium with Wong is relatively high.

To me, the most interesting part of the deal that can swing value way toward the Brewers is what happens with Toro over the next couple of seasons.

[monty57]

39 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh yeah, he can definitely provide value, which is why I generally like the deal, he's just working from a pretty severe disadvantage given his defensive limitations.

And it's not as if Wong was a slouch himself. The bar for Winker to hit even an equilibrium with Wong is relatively high.

To me, the most interesting part of the deal that can swing value way toward the Brewers is what happens with Toro over the next couple of seasons.

Ah, I misread. You meant “provide value over Wong” rather than “provide any value.” My bad. 
 

After last season, many/most posters thought the Brewers would decline Wong’s option. That they were able to get Winker and Toro when many thought they’d pay $2M to buy out Wong and get nothing of value leads me to say it was a pretty good deal. 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh yeah, he can definitely provide value, which is why I generally like the deal, he's just working from a pretty severe disadvantage given his defensive limitations.

And it's not as if Wong was a slouch himself. The bar for Winker to hit even an equilibrium with Wong is relatively high.

To me, the most interesting part of the deal that can swing value way toward the Brewers is what happens with Toro over the next couple of seasons.

I'd expect Winker to bounce back somewhat offensively and Wong to regress somewhat offensively because Winker is moving to a more hitter-friendly park and Wong a more pitcher-friendly. What makes or breaks this trade imo is if Wong bounces back in the field. He was one of the worst if not the worst defensive 2B in baseball last year. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I'd expect Winker to bounce back somewhat offensively and Wong to regress somewhat offensively because Winker is moving to a more hitter-friendly park and Wong a more pitcher-friendly. What makes or breaks this trade imo is if Wong bounces back in the field. He was one of the worst if not the worst defensive 2B in baseball last year. 

I agree with all of this. I think Wong will rebound a bit defensively but the offensive environment will help Winker and hurt Wong.