Article: Was the Milwaukee Brewers' Offseason a Failure?

[Caleb Miller]

During the offseason, evaluating MLB front offices can feel as speculative and as volatile as playing the stock market. After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017, the Milwaukee Brewers entered this winter looking for a rally. There’s no sure way to determine their success in effecting one until the season’s end, but we can estimate it now.

Image courtesy of © Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

In the context of a $12-billion industry, the Brewers aren’t a very wealthy team. With an estimated 2023 payroll of $120 million, they need to be precise in whom they trade for and whom they sign. The two most notable trades of the offseason were those for Jesse Winker and William Contreras. Winker had a rough year in Seattle, but based on his history batting against the Brewers at American Family Field, there is a high probability that he could make a comeback to the player he was in 2021. Contreras is a young catcher from Atlanta who has a very good slugging percentage and a lot of potential for growth. The best part of this deal is that the Brewers acquired him by trading Esteury Ruiz, whom they acquired in the Josh Hader trade. In the Winker trade, the team also landed infielder Abraham Toro. The Ruiz-Contreras deal, part of a larger three-team transaction, netted them not only Contreras, but right-handed reliever Joel Payamps and a minor-league arm.

Beyond those two deals, the Brewers have signed third baseman Brian Anderson and left-handed pitcher Wade Miley as free agents; traded for first baseman Owen Miller; and purchased the rights to right-handed hurler Bryse Wilson, along with signing a few minor-league contracts. Each of these players still has the potential to grow, with the oldest players being Anderson (turning 30 this year) and Payamps (turning 29). While some players, like Toro, show signs of progress in OPS, there isn’t anything spectacular about their statistics.  

There are those on social media who think that the Brewers haven’t made enough big trades, and should invest in more elite players in order to contend for a playoff spot this year. As the Brewers’ top three All-Stars (Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff) draw closer to free agency with no long-term contracts made, this patient approach seems risky. 

It’s actually the opposite. It appears the Brewers are spreading out their player investments, rather than focusing on a few star players. The second long-term deal the team signed with Ryan Braun, agreed to in 2011 but extending his deal from 2016-20, failed to deliver excess value. Their nine-year commitment to Christian Yelich, on the heels of his huge breakout years, looks likely to have a similarly uninspiring return on investment. 

As with stocks, acquiring great ballplayers is as much about timing as about pure talent identification. The Brewers, being a small-market team, don’t have the money to be wasteful or to miss on big financial bets. By signing a bunch of young players and good prospects for cheap, they don’t have to bank on the performance of a single player and can increase their likelihood of developing a future All-Star at a more affordable price. 

In summary, the Brewers didn’t lose many of their key players, and still acquired two notable new ones. While it’s disappointing that the Brewers aren’t as loud this offseason as other teams, sometimes we forget that it’s not just about who the Brewers sign, but also who they don’t sign. 

My final thought hearkens to the movie, Miracle. During a meeting to make out the roster for Team USA, assistant coach Craig Patrick (played by Noah Emmerich) says to coach Herb Brooks (Kurt Russell), “You’re missing some of the best players.” Brooks replies, “I’m not looking for the best players, Craig. I’m looking for the right ones.” Have the Brewers found the right players? We’ll find out, starting on March 30. 

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[JohnBriggs12]

The focus of the offseason seemed to be clearing the decks a bit to allow opportunity for their promising young outfielders.  I think they accomplished that.  Three of the veterans that started last season as major parts of the OF/DH rotation are gone.  Winker was the only veteran they got back and he's probably going to see the vast majority of his AB's as the DH.  They also got veteran protection for Turang without completely taking away a path for him to become an almost everyday player at some point maybe sooner rather than later.  They seem to have adequately replaced the versatility of Jace Peterson too with Miller and Anderson.

But the big move was acquiring a young controllable catcher with an elite bat.  Few of us thought that possible.  The rotation returns intact with a solid veteran in Miley to provide veteran depth and stability at the back end.

The addition of Contreras alone made for a reasonably successful offseason.  How the bullpen shakes out and whether the starters remain relatively healthy will determine if this team is a serious threat to the Cardinals or not.

 

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have to give them a minimum of B- on the offseason simply for the Contreras deal.

Remove that single deal and I have a hard time giving them better than a D grade. Some of their moves weren't bad but it was a lot of shuffling players around without seeing a lot of gains in the process.

[damuelle]

We don't appear to have over-paid for Contreras, Miley or Winker, so in that sense the offseason was positive. We also picked up some interesting arms in Junk, Yeager, Peguero and Seminaris.

But we likely misread the relief pitching market, thus erred in not picking up Boxberger's $3m option (paying him $750k to go pitch for the Cubs for another $2.8m), perhaps if only to deal him a month later for a player or prospect of respectable value.

And I'm sorry, but the reality is that relief pitching is the main area of the team that we couldn't afford to get wrong. We're ultimately going with youth offensively (Mitchell, Turang, Frelick), so we have to prepare for some tough offensive stretches. And we weren't going to materially improve our awesome starting pitching.

So the area for possible tangible gain (in my mind) was the bullpen and we've simply not achieved that yet (Rogers, Boxberger, Suter, Gott out; Houser or Ashby, Javy Guerra, Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson in). We're at least one bullpen addition short at this point. Hopefully Matt Arnold makes a move or two to rectify that.

[nate82]

12 minutes ago, damuelle said:

So the area for possible tangible gain (in my mind) was the bullpen and we've simply not achieved that yet (Rogers, Boxberger, Suter, Gott out; Houser or Ashby, Javy Guerra, Joel Payamps, Bryse Wilson in). We're at least one bullpen addition short at this point. Hopefully Matt Arnold makes a move or two to rectify that.

I think letting Boxberger, Suter and Gott go were fine.  Suter wasn't a high leverage arm in the bullpen.  He was a good bullpen piece but not someone you would want to count on late in the game.  Boxberger seemed to look like he has regressed a lot last year.  Gott was always interesting but he was never consistent in the bullpen and seemed to be always hurt or unavailable for awhile. 

The Brewers do need to add to the bullpen and there are plenty of useful options still available. 

[rickh150]

So far…. And I assume there will be a few mainly minor moves yet in the bullpen especially, I would give the offseason a B-. A B- is a fairly unassuming, blah grade. It’s better than average by a bit, but it is not something to get overly excited about.

However, Contreras is a reason to get excited about the catching position.  Yet, he alone does not an offseason make. We arguably got rid of 2 of our best hitters last year with Renfroe and Wong. We are relying on rookies playing a big role in 2023 and trusting them to hit. Our bullpen was awful after adios Hader, and nothing has shown me it is any better.

if ever there was a time in Brewers history to go get another big bat and shore up the pen somehow, it would be this year. The rebuild or whatever it is starts in 2024. Burnes, the best pitcher the team has ever had, and maybe even Woodruff will likely not be around. And this bit of sad truth alone is reason to feel blah about what hasn’t happened this offseason. 

[brewmann04]

they really needed to go all in before trading our top two arms

[Scooterfletcher]

The only failure is if we didn’t offer woodruff a serious long term deal or if we didn’t listen on burnes offers.  Im gonna believe we did and am ok where we are at.

[clancyphile]

18 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I have to give them a minimum of B- on the offseason simply for the Contreras deal.

Remove that single deal and I have a hard time giving them better than a D grade. Some of their moves weren't bad but it was a lot of shuffling players around without seeing a lot of gains in the process.

The Contreras deal makes the offseason a B+ for the young catcher with power who can be a right-handed DH, plus a couple of relief pitcher prospects.

That said, I don't see some of the moves as shuffling around. The way I see it, with Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, and Wiemer, the Brewers have some very bright prospects among the top 150 in baseball, and clearing the path for them while bolstering the farm was a team need.

The Renfroe deal was a solid B in terms of not only landing some pitching depth, but in clearing the space for Frelick/Wiemer. The Wong deal was not so good because Winker at DH does make getting playing time for these guys harder. To a lesser extent, the same is true of the Brian Anderson deal.

To me, the real failure is not making an effort to extend one or more of Burnes/Woodruff/Adames. There is still time to try to get it done.

But for the 2023 season - the short term - the Brewers did very well for the most part, and a slightly different Wong deal (say for IF Kaden Polcovich, LHP Holden Laws, and RHP Eduardo Tover) would have been far better for the team in the medium-to-long term.

[Jake McKibbin]

3 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

But for the 2023 season - the short term - the Brewers did very well for the most part, and a slightly different Wong deal (say for IF Kaden Polcovich, LHP Holden Laws, and RHP Eduardo Tover) would have been far better for the team in the medium-to-long term.

Could this be taken as a specific effort not just to look to the future but to take a risk on upgrading now and winning now? It's a tightrope that's tough to walk, but Winker does have the potential to be the hitter we've really craved in Milwaukee for the last few years

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, clancyphile said:

The Contreras deal makes the offseason a B+ for the young catcher with power who can be a right-handed DH, plus a couple of relief pitcher prospects.

That said, I don't see some of the moves as shuffling around. The way I see it, with Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, and Wiemer, the Brewers have some very bright prospects among the top 150 in baseball, and clearing the path for them while bolstering the farm was a team need.

The Renfroe deal was a solid B in terms of not only landing some pitching depth, but in clearing the space for Frelick/Wiemer. The Wong deal was not so good because Winker at DH does make getting playing time for these guys harder. To a lesser extent, the same is true of the Brian Anderson deal.

To me, the real failure is not making an effort to extend one or more of Burnes/Woodruff/Adames. There is still time to try to get it done.

But for the 2023 season - the short term - the Brewers did very well for the most part, and a slightly different Wong deal (say for IF Kaden Polcovich, LHP Holden Laws, and RHP Eduardo Tover) would have been far better for the team in the medium-to-long term.

The window is now. While it is important to keep one eye on the future, this team is ready to win now. Therefore they need to make moves to bolster the roster for 2023. Pinning your hopes on four rookies getting substantial MLB playing time on a playoff contending team is not a recipe for success. They know that, which is why they decided to get proven MLB talent back for Wong, rather than restock with low-level minor leaguers.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

30 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

The Contreras deal makes the offseason a B+ for the young catcher with power who can be a right-handed DH, plus a couple of relief pitcher prospects.

That said, I don't see some of the moves as shuffling around. The way I see it, with Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, and Wiemer, the Brewers have some very bright prospects among the top 150 in baseball, and clearing the path for them while bolstering the farm was a team need.

The Renfroe deal was a solid B in terms of not only landing some pitching depth, but in clearing the space for Frelick/Wiemer. The Wong deal was not so good because Winker at DH does make getting playing time for these guys harder. To a lesser extent, the same is true of the Brian Anderson deal.

To me, the real failure is not making an effort to extend one or more of Burnes/Woodruff/Adames. There is still time to try to get it done.

But for the 2023 season - the short term - the Brewers did very well for the most part, and a slightly different Wong deal (say for IF Kaden Polcovich, LHP Holden Laws, and RHP Eduardo Tover) would have been far better for the team in the medium-to-long term.

I don't dislike their supporting deals around Contreras, they just weren't very inspiring to me. I think Renfroe would still be a pretty good fit on this roster.

The Contreras deal on its own was A+++ territory. One of the best baseball deals I've seen recently from any team.

The failure to make any movement on the extension front is a big reason why I'm giving them a B- right now.

[Outlander]

I am fine with no extension, they tend not to end well with the Brewers. However, it would be nice if ownership actually stretched the budget for this 1-2 year window to really go for it. 

This off season isn't necessarily a failure because one of their biggest weakness was catcher and they obtained a young one in Contreras but even there, question marks remain about his defense and if he will stay there long term.

So overall maybe a C+/B-  but I'm also not real confident they have any chance at a World Series.

 

[clancyphile]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't dislike their supporting deals around Contreras, they just weren't very inspiring to me. I think Renfroe would still be a pretty good fit on this roster.

The Contreras deal on its own was A+++ territory. One of the best baseball deals I've seen recently from any team.

The failure to make any movement on the extension front is a big reason why I'm giving them a B- right now.

For me, in the short term, it's a B+. They made a lot of moves to make the team better for 2023 and didn't break the bank. That is a very good move. Winker+Contreras is likely to be a huge improvement over Renfroe+Narvaez. The team will pay Winker/Contreras a total of $11 million, Renfroe and Narvaez will be about $19 million. That's the Anderson and Miley signings, even with the case to Seattle.

The real downcheck was waiving Suter, which prevents the offseason from being an A. Yes, he would have cost $3 million, but he was also a proven asset on the pitching staff, The Hader deal blew up, but at least they got some potential long-term pieces both directly (Gasser) and indirectly (Contreras, Payamps, Weaver) for Hader.

The lack of extensions and the blockage of Frelick/Wiemer does push the long-term grade down a bit, If Yelich were full-time DH, I think his offense would improve and he'd hold it down for 140-150 games a season because he doesn't get dinged up in the field.

[monty57]

I went into this offseason expecting the team to cut payroll, and I've never thought a long-term extension to Burnes, Woodruff or Adames was going to happen (although I've speculated of what I thought was a fairy tale scenario where Woody could stay). So that left a pretty tough path to improving the team.

However, I also remember that last year's team was basically the same team that should have won 100 games in '21, so I figure there's a very strong core to work with.

I really think people are underrating how good a bat Winker has. He was hurt last year, and it appears he and some of his Seattle teammates didn't get along, which is something you never heard of in Cincinnati, so I'm not worried, but it could have effected his play... he still posted a 109 wRC+. In his two previous (and injury-free) years, he posted consecutive wRC+ of 142 and 147. Here are some of his 2021 comps, Ohtani (151), Judge (149), Matt Olson (147), Kyle Tucker (145). Not bad company. If we had added Ohtani or Judge's bat, some here might be excited, but if Winker is over his injuries and goes back to what he did in '21 and '22, then that's basically the type of bat we added. This is a huge get for the "win now" crowd.

Then there's Contreras. I don't think I've seen anyone anywhere say anything bad about this move from a Brewers' standpoint. It's really hard to say anything bad about acquiring a guy who was brought over for an unheralded prospect after having an All-Star season in his rookie year and still has five seasons of team control. This was a move that immediately improves the team, and will help them for years to come.

Miley kind of surprised me, as it leaves the team with seven starters who will all start the year on a major league roster. Miley's contract was written in a way which states that he's probably going to start, so I'm sure the Brewers have a plan. At the very least, they now have seven viable MLB starters. Last year, the biggest reason we missed the playoffs was that we lost a lot of starts from guys like Woodruff and Peralta. We now have some additional insurance, which is already being tested with Ashby's recent "arm fatigue" statements. Plus, if they're all healthy Houser and maybe one other (Ashby?) could be used to strengthen up the pen.

If Anderson plays like he did at the start of his career, then we just acquired a borderline All Star. If not, then he's a viable placeholder to get us another service year for Turang. I believe there were some injury issues, so we'll see what we get. For the price, it's hard to be upset with this acquisition, especially since Turang is a phone call away.

I won't make this long post any longer, other than to say that I think we addressed our most glaring holes, while still cutting budget and not committing ourselves to long-term deals. I think we won a lot more than most will give us credit for.

[igor67]

I feel pretty good about the offseason, the bullpen for me is where I still have questions. Given the nature of bullpens it is still possible to be pleasantly surprised but I was expecting another mid-level vet to just give a few more options to sort out. I'm OK with not doing extensions on the starting pitchers, because it is almost certainly the case that even if we guessed relatively correctly on which one would not get hurt, we are going to end up paying top #1 starter dollars to someone who is about to pass their peak and will probably pitch mostly like a #2 starter for the duration of the contract. 

[Jopal78]

I give them a D, and here’s why: they were the worst of the teams in the NL who were actually trying to compete last year, but their roster moves this off-season did not close the gap between themselves and the  Mets, Phillies, Braves, Padres, Dodgers. I’m not sure the Brewers are the favorite in the NL Central either which represents the easiest path to the playoffs. 
 

By postponing the inevitable break up of their core until at least July of ‘23. When the rebuild does start, they will get less talent back for Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, etc. Their relief pitching wasn’t good in the 2nd half of last season so they’ve turned it over quite a bit but are now gambling on unproven arms to pitch meaningful relief innings.

The Brewers aren’t a “bad” team but failing to make the playoffs in the expanded post season means they weren’t a “good” team either. They shuffled the major league roster as best they could without trading away key major league talent. It just seems to me like they have no direction and are spinning their wheels, hoping to beat the odds in ‘23.

[homer]

can I say incomplete since the off season isn't over yet? 

[SF70]

39 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I give them a D, and here’s why: they were the worst of the teams in the NL who were actually trying to compete last year, but their roster moves this off-season did not close the gap between themselves and the  Mets, Phillies, Braves, Padres, Dodgers. I’m not sure the Brewers are the favorite in the NL Central either which represents the easiest path to the playoffs. 
 

By postponing the inevitable break up of their core until at least July of ‘23. When the rebuild does start, they will get less talent back for Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, etc. Their relief pitching wasn’t good in the 2nd half of last season so they’ve turned it over quite a bit but are now gambling on unproven arms to pitch meaningful relief innings.

The Brewers aren’t a “bad” team but failing to make the playoffs in the expanded post season means they weren’t a “good” team either. They shuffled the major league roster as best they could without trading away key major league talent. It just seems to me like they have no direction and are spinning their wheels, hoping to beat the odds in ‘23.

Couldn’t disagree more.

I’m giving them an A offseason. Arnold & co. have improved the offense (Contreras & Winker), starting pitching depth (Miley, Wilson, Junk, Miller) pen arms (too numerous to list, but a boatload and a half at least), infield depth (Anderson, Miller, Toro), and OF depth (Perkins, Bolt, Harrison).

They’ve improved the farm’s pitching depth as well (Yeager, Seminaris, Hernandez, Junk). 

They accomplished all this without blocking their talented AAA prospects from playing-time if they perform.

 

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Couldn’t disagree more.

I’m giving them an A offseason. Arnold & co. have improved the offense (Contreras & Winker), starting pitching depth (Miley, Wilson, Junk, Miller) pen arms (too numerous to list, but a boatload and a half at least), infield depth (Anderson, Miller, Toro), and OF depth (Perkins, Bolt, Harrison).

They’ve improved the farm’s pitching depth as well (Yeager, Seminaris, Hernandez, Junk). 

They accomplished all this without blocking their talented AAA prospects from playing-time if they perform.

 

Depth is one thing it probably helps them not back track, but the question is do they have the horses to go toe to toe with the best of their league? They didn’t last year, and I don’t think they do this year. Their roster has too many “ifs”: if Winker is healthy and last year was a fluke, if the shift helps Yelich produce more, if the rotation stays healthy, if one of their CFers can excel in the majors, etc etc.

Of course every year a team gets extra lucky or goes on a timely hot streak so anything can happen, I just  think that’s what the Brewers are going to need to stand out in ‘23.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I give them a D, and here’s why: they were the worst of the teams in the NL who were actually trying to compete last year

The Giants won an MLB best 107 games in 2021 and ran the 12th highest OD payroll for 2022 at $155M.

They weren’t trying to compete?

[DR28]

10 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Depth is one thing it probably helps them not back track, but the question is do they have the horses to go toe to toe with the best of their league? They didn’t last year, and I don’t think they do this year. Their roster has too many “ifs”: if Winker is healthy and last year was a fluke, if the shift helps Yelich produce more, if the rotation stays healthy, if one of their CFers can excel in the majors, etc etc.

Of course every year a team gets extra lucky or goes on a timely hot streak so anything can happen, I just  think that’s what the Brewers are going to need to stand out in ‘23.

Every team has ifs... What team doesnt?

[Jopal78]

3 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Every team has ifs... What team doesnt?

Braves, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, Cardinals don’t have situations where they’re counting on guys bouncing back from horrible seasons to be pillars of their team, or banking on improved health to be able to compete.

[Jopal78]

8 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The Giants won an MLB best 107 games in 2021 and ran the 12th highest OD payroll for 2022 at $155M.

They weren’t trying to compete?

See comment above that every year there’s a team that gets hot or lucky. That was the Giants only winning season in the last six years.

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

Braves, Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, Cardinals don’t have situations where they’re counting on guys bouncing back from horrible seasons to be pillars of their team, or banking on improved health to be able to compete.

The dodgers definitely have questions in their rotation and some holes in their lineup

Cardinals are hoping to god that one of their pitchers can perform like an ace

Padres & Phillies have spent huge chunks of money

I'd still say Brewers have a premier rotation in baseball, and the lack of depth killed them last year when injuries hit

Hopefully improved offense (at least Winker will be better than Cutch by all estimations)

So they've improved at least, and once you get in the playoffs, with this rotation all you need is a sharp burst of form and it's fair game