Article: Why the Devin Williams Airbender is a Screwball, and Why That Matters

[Matthew Trueblood]

On any list of the most devastating individual pitches in MLB, the primary weapon of Milwaukee Brewers closer Devin Williams would have to be near the top. It’s a bat misser, but he can throw it for a strike and catch a batter staring on occasion. It neutralizes power as well as any offering in baseball. The Airbender is many things–it just isn’t a changeup. Williams throws a screwball, and that’s a fact that matters.

In 2022, Devin Williams threw his screwball 620 times. It accounted for 58 percent of his pitches. Among hurlers who compiled at least 40 innings, not only did no one throw a changeup that often, but only San Diego Padres right-hander Nabil Crismatt even crept over the 50-percent threshold. However, seven pitchers used a slider at least 58 percent of the time. Breaking pitches, because they rely more on spin and movement and less on deception, are slightly more versatile and useful than are changeups. One argument, then, is that Williams’s pitch is some form of breaking ball, purely because it’s improbable that he could have this much success while relying on a changeup.

That would be a thin argument on its own, of course, but it’s buttressed by the characteristics of the pitch itself. First of all, Williams’s pitch has 11.0 inches of horizontal movement on average. That’s more than any changeup in baseball, but it’s right in line with the best sliders, sweepers, and curveballs in the league, according to the PitchInfo Leaderboards at Baseball Prospectus. A slightly less extreme version of the same story plays out when you compare the pitch’s vertical movement to prospective peers.

Again, though, Williams’s pitch is obviously an outlier. We can’t disqualify it from being a changeup purely because it moves more than any other changeup in baseball. It also moves more than almost any slider, sweeper, or curve. Let’s consider another dimension of pitch characteristics, though–first a metaphorical one, then a literal one. Williams’s pitch spins at a bit over 2,700 revolutions per minute (RPM), on average. That’s not only the highest spin rate on a so-called changeup in the majors, but beats the field by 200 RPM. It’s about 500 RPM higher than his fastball spin rate.

A changeup, by any reasonable definition, is a pitch predicated on fooling the hitter into seeing a fastball. The deception comes from using the same arm motion and arm speed, and a very closely matched release point, while killing speed and spin by gripping the ball with more of the pitcher’s hand. Most good changeups spin considerably less than their purveyors’ fastballs. Williams’s pitch spins more.

Now that we have detailed data on exactly where the pitcher releases the ball in three dimensions, we also know that Williams does that differently than guys throwing changeups do. His release extension–the distance in front of the pitching rubber at which the ball leaves his hand–is about an inch and a half greater on his fastball than on his screwball. That’s not typical, at all. A changeup not only relies on mimicking the release point of the heater, but usually invites a fraction of extra extension, as the pitcher’s hand works through from behind the ball and they “turn it over.” That’s where both the velocity differential and the fading action of a changeup comes from.

However, many pitchers do have slightly less extension on their breaking balls than on their fastballs. That’s because a breaking ball requires something different. The hand goes around the ball, rather than through it, maximizing spin and altering the axis thereof at the same time. That’s what Williams is doing with his pitch; he just does it with his outer fingers and a pronating turn of the forearm, rather than his first two fingers and a supinating one. He’s using a modified version of what we now call a circle changeup grip, but the circle change is just the gentler, modern variant on the old screwball.

Why does this matter? The result is the same, whether you call it a changeup or a screwball. There’s no pitch in baseball quite like it. Well, there are a couple of important factors involved. One is the health implications of throwing the screwball. Creating that much spin with a pronating delivery puts strain not only on the elbow, but on the shoulder, and it’s important to remember that as we project Williams’s longevity as the Brewers’ relief ace. There’s a reason why most of the great screwballers you can name (Christy Mathewson, Carl Hubbell, Warren Spahn) have grainy black-and-white photographs on Baseball Reference. The pitch is dangerous. We’ve already seen shoulder issues render him unavailable at the worst possible time.

Another reason why we should care what this pitch is called, though, is so that we can understand it–and the sport we love–better. As a changeup, it’s not merely awesome, but baffling, and not entirely in a good way. It starts to seem unfathomable and inscrutable. When we reconceptualize it as a reverse breaking ball, though, it makes more sense, and that new comprehension doesn’t compromise our ability to marvel at it. It just brings us a little closer to the clarity and vividity reserved for the really careful baseball fan, and that closeness heightens our overall enjoyment of the game itself.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

Quote

That’s what Williams is doing with his pitch; he just does it with his outer fingers and a pronating turn of the forearm, rather than his first two fingers and a supinating one.

[Jim French Stepstool]

So I was right!!!!! They call it a changeup so it'll be less strain on his shoulder than if they called it a screwball!!!!!

[Joseph Zarr]

So, when we reflect back to when broke he broke his hand in such timely fashion back in 2021 do we call that punch a 'screwwall'?

Asking for a friend (who is also a dad).

[Frisbee Slider]

Does Devin Williams call his pitch a change up? 

Your explanation makes total sense on why it is a screwball.

[SF70]

Hoping for some serious breakouts from among our large stable of bullpen possibilities this season. Hopefully he gets thru the championship season healthy and the team has other closer options moving forward so we can trade Devin next offseason.

 

[Underachiever]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Hoping for some serious breakouts from among our large stable of bullpen possibilities this season. Hopefully he gets thru the championship season healthy and the team has other closer options moving forward so we can trade Devin next offseason.

 

That last sentence was a wild ride. Let me get ahead of the mob and say I'm disappointed with what the 2023 World Series Champions got in return for the Devin Williams trade. 

[SF70]

7 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

That last sentence was a wild ride. Let me get ahead of the mob and say I'm disappointed with what the 2023 World Series Champions got in return for the Devin Williams trade. 

Getting something is better than nothing if he ends up injured. Throwing that pitch makes his arm a ticking time-bomb and maybe some GM will take a chance.

[Jake McKibbin]

9 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Getting something is better than nothing if he ends up injured. Throwing that pitch makes his arm a ticking time-bomb and maybe some GM will take a chance.

I think the Brewers value a shutdown closer too much that unless Uribe develops into that role, even the thought of Williams being traded is off the table

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

So, when we reflect back to when broke he broke his hand in such timely fashion back in 2021 do we call that punch a 'screwwall'?

Asking for a friend (who is also a dad).

[SF70]

9 minutes ago, jakedood said:

I think the Brewers value a shutdown closer too much that unless Uribe develops into that role, even the thought of Williams being traded is off the table

Things change. 
Uribe, Guerra, Peguero, Varland, all have the stuff to close if they breakout 

[Brock Beauchamp]

35 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

That last sentence was a wild ride. Let me get ahead of the mob and say I'm disappointed with what the 2023 World Series Champions got in return for the Devin Williams trade. 

A dynasty-busting move, for sure.

[Jake McKibbin]

8 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Things change. 
Uribe, Guerra, Peguero, Varland, all have the stuff to close if they breakout 

They can close, yes, but out of them, Uribe is probably the only one with the stuff to be a dominant closer rather than a league average one

[SF70]

2 minutes ago, jakedood said:

They can close, yes, but out of them, Uribe is probably the only one with the stuff to be a dominant closer rather than a league average one

I would agree with that assessment. But there’s something to be said with mixing and matching as well, especially from a team that has had a lot of success doing that in the past.

They have more “stuff” arms than they’ve had since the Knebel-Jeffress-Hader days. I like the odds of this team finding multiple closing options after this season moving forward.

[Jake McKibbin]

4 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I would agree with that assessment. But there’s something to be said with mixing and matching as well, especially from a team that has had a lot of success doing that in the past.

They have more “stuff” arms than they’ve had since the Knebel-Jeffress-Hader days. I like the odds of this team finding multiple closing options after this season moving forward.

True, but even then, Williams has been so elite since coming in, I think it's almost handier to keep in mind if you can find a really stable 8th inning and 7th inning guy, if you have others, trading seems logical particularly at the deadline, but not all of these guys are going to click in all likelihood

[Matthew Trueblood]

18 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

So I was right!!!!! They call it a changeup so it'll be less strain on his shoulder than if they called it a screwball!!!!!

Yeah, I think there’s an element of PR to this, from both player and team. “Screwball” (not without reason) scares people. That said, I think we also can acknowledge that he clearly has a special ability to apply spin in that direction, which must mean it’s SLIGHTLY less dangerous for him than it might be for your average pitcher.

[Matthew Trueblood]

45 minutes ago, jakedood said:

True, but even then, Williams has been so elite since coming in, I think it's almost handier to keep in mind if you can find a really stable 8th inning and 7th inning guy, if you have others, trading seems logical particularly at the deadline, but not all of these guys are going to click in all likelihood

This has been a good conversation. I’ll say that I think Strzelecki and Ashby could also figure into the equation, before it all has to be decided either way. And that I think they’ll trade Williams, rather than play it all the way out, unless he responds well to overtures about what would be a pretty team-friendly extension. I doubt it happens before midseason 2024, though.