Article: Why the Milwaukee Brewers Will Handle 2023 MLB Shifting Ban Better Than Anyone

[Matthew Trueblood]

Five years ago, the Milwaukee Brewers used defensive shifts as much as any team in baseball. Under the 2023 MLB rules changes, though, they shouldn’t suffer much, because they’ve phased out shifting as a primary run prevention tool over the last two seasons. It's one way they've stayed ahead of the pace of change in baseball, even as that pace has quickened.

The Brewers front office and the field staff under Craig Counsell have always tried to optimize their choices and strategies in areas like fielder positioning, and for a long time, that meant using shifts. Not by accident did they briefly utilize the 1,000-pound infield of Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Jonathan Schoop, and Jesús Aguilar, using shifts to make Schoop a passable shortstop and Moustakas and Shaw cromulent at second base. 

As you can see, though, they’ve veered sharply toward more traditional alignments on the dirt since the start of 2021. In fact, few teams are better prepared for the new rules preventing imbalanced infields or infielders playing on the outfield grass than are the Brewers.

That’s not merely a matter of the team getting out of those alignments proactively and training their defenders to make the plays. It’s something they’ve addressed via their offseason moves. By trading away Kolten Wong and letting Jace Peterson walk as a free agent, the team ended up getting younger and more athletic, not only because those choices created more room for incumbents, but because new additions Abraham Toro and Brian Anderson are considerably younger than the men whom they’re replacing. 

Anderson and Toro also help in another way. It receives little attention, but infield throws are likely to get much tougher under the new rules. Strong and accurate arms are more vital to good infield play if a fielder is more likely to field the ball on the run, or heading away from their desired target, and that’s exactly what will happen in a post-shift world. Peterson has a very strong arm, but in Anderson, the Brewers got one every bit as good. Wong, on the other hand, had the weakest infield arm in baseball in 2022, according to Statcast, while Toro, Luis Urías, and Mike Brosseau all rated around average. 

The linchpin of the infield defense, of course, is shortstop Willy Adames. That’s another bit of good news, because he’s as unlikely to suffer disproportionately from positioning constraints as any shortstop in MLB. Some shortstops who are especially tall will have to show the ability to bend and make plays more often, but Adames is only six feet in height. Those with fringy arms, as we’ve already discussed, will be stretched, but Statcast measured Adames’s arm as the fifth-strongest among infielders last year. Older, slower guys who depended on their savvy and the extra step afforded them by shifts will struggle, but Adames is only 27 and is an above-average runner.

Brice Turang only deepens the collection of good options on defense, and the scouting report on him from FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen highlights his utility under the new rules. 

“Turang is so defensively gifted that he is almost certain to have a significant and lengthy big league career, especially now that shifting is banned,” Longenhagen wrote in December. “He has plus feet, range, and actions, and will make throws from all kinds of odd platforms, including when he’s backhanding balls to his right and throwing on the run.”

With Adames as the anchor and Anderson, Urias, Brosseau, Toro, and Turang as the supporting cast, the Brewers don’t need shifts to defend the infield well. That’s part of why they used them less over the last two years, and now that none of their rivals can use that tactic, the Crew gains a comparative advantage. 

They have one more edge, too. Only the Dodgers induced weaker ground balls, on average, than did the Brewers in 2022. 

There are no guarantees that they can sustain that skill, of course, and we can explore the chances of that another time. For now, though, it’s safe to say this much: the Brewers’ overall run prevention infrastructure is as well-suited to the new constraints teams will face as any team in MLB. 

 

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[Brock Beauchamp]

Outstanding research and analysis as always, Matt. I never even realized Wong's arm was that bad. I knew it wasn't good but woof. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

39 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Outstanding research and analysis as always, Matt. I never even realized Wong's arm was that bad. I knew it wasn't good but woof. 

Well, I’ll admit to using a stat that I think oversimplifies things a little in that regard. All of us who have watched Wong over the years know that part of his defensive smoothness is not throwing it harder than he needs to. His internal clock is pretty good and I don’t think he even tries to muscle up and fire it 90 MPH from second to first, most of the time. That probably biases the numbers somewhat, and Statcast only has limited ways to adjust for it. Still, I would grade his arm as markedly below-average, especially last year, so the data tells us a fair (if slightly exaggerated) story there. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Matthew Trueblood said:

Well, I’ll admit to using a stat that I think oversimplifies things a little in that regard. All of us who have watched Wong over the years know that part of his defensive smoothness is not throwing it harder than he needs to. His internal clock is pretty good and I don’t think he even tries to muscle up and fire it 90 MPH from second to first, most of the time. That probably biases the numbers somewhat, and Statcast only has limited ways to adjust for it. Still, I would grade his arm as markedly below-average, especially last year, so the data tells us a fair (if slightly exaggerated) story there. 

That makes sense. Wong is a capable fielder, gets his feet under him, and makes clean throws. Saying his arm is the worst at the position is definitely an over-simplification, I just didn't realize it graded out that weakly in StatCast.

Overall, I'm hoping the shift reduction brings second base back to relevance in the game a bit more. Obviously, we won't see a flood of slap-hitters return to the game but seeing more athleticism at the position is a welcome return.

[Joseph Zarr]

Hear ye, Hear ye. Good stuff! Love the arm discourse - an extremely important but oft overlooked quality of a player.

Though his arm is probably a notch below Adames (naked eye observations from Sounds games), Turang indeed benefits from a solid ability to toss the white rat with decent velocity. 
 

I continue to hope last year's impressive showing from Cam Devanney was just the beginnings of what could be a long career. That is the best infield arm in the system - yes, better than Eduardo Garcia. An absolute cannon that is so fun to watch. He's knocking on the door at Nashville and I hope he can open it and show his wares.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Well, I’ll admit to using a stat that I think oversimplifies things a little in that regard. All of us who have watched Wong over the years know that part of his defensive smoothness is not throwing it harder than he needs to. His internal clock is pretty good and I don’t think he even tries to muscle up and fire it 90 MPH from second to first, most of the time. That probably biases the numbers somewhat, and Statcast only has limited ways to adjust for it. Still, I would grade his arm as markedly below-average, especially last year, so the data tells us a fair (if slightly exaggerated) story there. 

Those arm strength numbers are the average of top 5% of his hardest throws though. I feel like that does a decent job of factoring out the easy throws. The naked eye could see the difference between Urias and Wong's double play turns at 2B. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

14 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Those arm strength numbers are the average of top 5% of his hardest throws though. I feel like that does a decent job of factoring out the easy throws. The naked eye could see the difference between Urias and Wong's double play turns at 2B. 

Oh, for sure. Again, Wong’s arm has lost its zip and they definitely upgraded. I mean only that it’s good to contextualize and not overly rely on ANY Savant stats, least of all the defensive ones. They can still be useful though.

[Babe Ruth is Dead]

Defensive shifts are all about teams trying to gain an advantage to win. Banning them is like banning certain plays in football such as fake punts or onside kicks, two point conversions, etc. that are designed to win the game.  Baseball is now all about numbers for fantasy leagues. Not winning.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, Babe Ruth is Dead said:

Defensive shifts are all about teams trying to gain an advantage to win. Banning them is like banning certain plays in football such as fake punts or onside kicks, two point conversions, etc. that are designed to win the game.  Baseball is now all about numbers for fantasy leagues. Not winning.

This is an oversimplification of the situation. Other sports have banned various defensive alignments multiple times. The NBA banned zone defense for a long time. In the NHL, for decades there were all sorts of rules involving players in the crease.

[Jake McKibbin]

Congrats on the shout-out in the tailgate podcast by the way! Shows the quality of analysis you're giving!

[owbc]

On 2/4/2023 at 4:20 AM, Babe Ruth is Dead said:

Defensive shifts are all about teams trying to gain an advantage to win. Banning them is like banning certain plays in football such as fake punts or onside kicks, two point conversions, etc. that are designed to win the game.  Baseball is now all about numbers for fantasy leagues. Not winning.

It's a near miracle that in 120 years of MLB there have only been two instances where major rule changes to the actual game itself (i.e. not juiced balls or steroids) were required to keep offense and defense in balance. Maybe there are more but the DH/mound lowering and the shift ban are the two big ones that come to mind. 

It's probably going to be needed more often going forward. 

[CheezWizHed]

Holy double posting batman! Seems like a systemic issue here!

But for the article, it would've been good to note how many groundballs the Brewers also incur on defense compared to others.  Seems like we have a pretty high-K rate group so there are simply fewer GBs to go around.  Especially if Houser ends up in the pen this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

Holy double posting batman! Seems like a systemic issue here!

Yeah, that was the posting snafu that happened when my five year old toggled a setting I didn’t notice.