Who will lead the Brewers in WAR in 2023?

[Brock Beauchamp]

This could be a fun exercise. In order, list a handful of Brewers in descending order of where they finish in WAR. I'll go first:

Adames, Burnes, Yelich, Woodruff, Contreras

[MrTPlush]

Woodruff/Contreras/Burnes/Adames/Mitchell/Yelich

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Woodruff/Contreras/Burnes/Adames/Mitchell/Yelich

Mitchell. Bold prediction.

[Jake McKibbin]

Woodruff (partially because I think he may last a little better this season)

Adames

Burnes

Yelich (Would love Winker but his defense will mean negative marks/DHing which is hard to get WAR from)

Urias/Peralta

[MVP2110]

For a baseline I went and looked and last year our top 10 WAR Leaders in order were

Adames(4.4)

Burnes(4.0)

Urias/Wong(3.1)

Yelich/Woodruff/Renfroe(2.7)

Jace(2.3)

Taylor/Devin(2.1)

For new guys the only guy who would crack the top 10 was Contreras at 2.7 WAR

So my guesses this year

1. Adames(4.3)

2. Woodruff(4.0)

3. Burnes(3.9)

4. Contreras(3.3)

5. Peralta(3.1)

6. Urias(3.0)

7. Yelich(2.8)

8. Taylor(2.3)

9. Frelick(2.2)

10. Devin/Miley(2.1)

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

30 minutes ago, jakedood said:

Yelich (Would love Winker but his defense will mean negative marks/DHing which is hard to get WAR from)

Yeah, as a mostly-DH, it's going to be really hard for Winker to get much over 2-2.5 WAR.

[MrTPlush]

29 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Mitchell. Bold prediction.

As @MVP2110 just showed, in 2022 the bar wasn't set very high to crack the Top 5 in WAR.

I think Mitchell starts the year in CF and I am optimistic he can show enough to hold Frelick off or enough to make it where Tyrone Taylor gets shoved down the depth chart instead of him when Frelick gets promoted. I figure if he is up all year long starting his defense should carry him to a WAR around 3.0.

I would probably go with Frelick instead...but I am not overly confident he is going to get promoted as soon as he clears service time concerns.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, MrTPlush said:

As @MVP2110 just showed, in 2022 the bar wasn't set very high to crack the Top 5 in WAR.

I think Mitchell starts the year in CF and I am optimistic he can show enough to hold Frelick off or enough to make it where Tyrone Taylor gets shoved down the depth chart instead of him when Frelick gets promoted. I figure if he is up all year long starting his defense should carry him to a WAR around 3.0.

I would probably go with Frelick instead...but I am not overly confident he is going to get promoted as soon as he clears service time concerns.

Oh, for sure. Clearing 2.5-ish wins will often get a player in the top five or close to it. I'm just really down on Mitchell as a long-term starter. His defense could provide significant value but unless he finds a way to reel in his swing-and-miss stuff in a significant way, I don't see him getting an opportunity to grind out that defensive value.

[wiguy94]

I'm going with Burnes. Think he has a strong season after a rough (by his standards) second half last year. Adames as runner up, but both being above 5 WAR.

[MrTPlush]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, for sure. Clearing 2.5-ish wins will often get a player in the top five or close to it. I'm just really down on Mitchell as a long-term starter. His defense could provide significant value but unless he finds a way to reel in his swing-and-miss stuff in a significant way, I don't see him getting an opportunity to grind out that defensive value.

Yah, the K-rate was pretty bad...and his BABIP was like .550

He has a really small track record even in the minors. He barely had 500 plate appearances in the minors. He didn't really have strikeout problems in the minors and actually dropped between AA and AAA. I think he settled in a bit towards the end of the year. Ryan Braun did a pretty good job racking up a bunch of multi K games himself when he first came up. A bit of a surprise for a guy who only struck out at like 8% in AAA.

Not sure Mitchell will be much better than a Tyrone Taylor in the long run...but then again, that would make him a 3 WAR player. Hopefully Tyrone Taylor has another solid year. He could be a good trade candidate after the year and sell high on a position of strength instead of starting to pay him arbitration. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Yah, the K-rate was pretty bad...and his BABIP was like .550

He has a really small track record even in the minors. He barely had 500 plate appearances in the minors. He didn't really have strikeout problems in the minors and actually dropped between AA and AAA. I think he settled in a bit towards the end of the year. Ryan Braun did a pretty good job racking up a bunch of multi K games himself when he first came up. A bit of a surprise for a guy who only struck out at like 8% in AAA.

Not sure Mitchell will be much better than a Tyrone Taylor in the long run...but then again, that would make him a 3 WAR player. Hopefully Tyrone Taylor has another solid year. He could be a good trade candidate after the year and sell high on a position of strength instead of starting to pay him arbitration. 

The good thing about Mitchell is that he should provide enough defensive value to stick around for 3-5 years depending on his offensive output. Every team and especially small market teams need those sub-$2m players back-filling a roster but still providing value. Mitchell may not be better than Taylor today but in the near future, he could provide similar value at a lower price point.

[Jake McKibbin]

Would Mitchell and Harrison Bader be an interesting comp?

[MrTPlush]

23 minutes ago, jakedood said:

Would Mitchell and Harrison Bader be an interesting comp?

Pretty accurate comp I would say. 

I think Mitchell has a decent bit more power potential IF he can tap into it fully...and he has more speed/defense. Overall though...they are pretty similar players.

[umphrey]

2 hours ago, jakedood said:

Would Mitchell and Harrison Bader be an interesting comp?

Not a bad comp. I think Mitchell has a range of potential outcomes, Bader 2.0 is towards the upper end of his range but I wouldn't call it his ceiling. His floor is still quite low. 

[Outlander]

Adames/Woodruff/Urias/Contreras/Burnes

I do think this team will have a a couple more 2 WAR players than they did last year, would also say Peralta/Yelich/Winker/Williams/Taylor/Anderson and a rookie hit that mark.

 

 

[wiguy94]

24 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Adames/Woodruff/Urias/Contreras/Burnes

I do think this team will have a a couple more 2 WAR players than they did last year, would also say Peralta/Yelich/Winker/Williams/Taylor/Anderson and a rookie hit that mark.

 

 

Think it will be very difficult for Winker to hit 2 WAR. For reference Vogelbach had a 128 wRC+ in 461 PA and only put up 1.5 fWAR. Winker has also somehow graded as a worse baserunner than Vogelbach over the last two seasons. For Winker to get to 2 WAR, he would likely need a 135 wRC+. Not saying it isn't possible but I'd personally put the money on him being under 2 WAR.

[AKCheesehead]

For the top 5 I'll go:

1 Woodruff

2 Burnes

3 Urias

4 Peralta

5 Adames

It would not shock me to see Frelick, Yelich, Contreras or even Lauer end up in the top 5.  And I can also envision some scenarios where Mitchell or even Wiemer could make it, but those scenarios would be surprising to me.

[Brewcrew82]

1. Burnes (6.0 WAR)

2. Adames (5.4 WAR)

3. Woodruff (5.1 WAR)

4. Yelich (3.5 WAR)

5. Urias (3.3 WAR)

6. Contreras (3.1 WAR)

7. Peralta (3.1 WAR)

8. Ashby (2.9 WAR)

9. Frelick (2.6 WAR)

10. Williams (2.2 WAR)

Looks like 90 wins to me. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Winker has also somehow graded as a worse baserunner than Vogelbach over the last two seasons.

This statement is objectively hilarious. 

[wiguy94]

32 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This statement is objectively hilarious. 

Out of the 118 players with 1000 PA over the last two seasons, Winker's BsR is the second worst at -10.7. The only player with a worse BsR is Josh Bell at -11.6. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Adames, Burnes, Woodruff, CF, Peralta.

Whoever starts the year at CF Mitchell or Frelick due to position WAR increases takes 4th.

[clancyphile]

Adames (4.5)

Burnes (4.4)

Woodruff (4.0)

Yelich (3,9)

Tellez (3.8)

Peralta (3.5)

Contreras (3.1)

Mitchell (2.8)

Taylor (2.6)

Winker (2.4)

 

[wiguy94]

41 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Adames (4.5)

Burnes (4.4)

Woodruff (4.0)

Yelich (3,9)

Tellez (3.8)

Peralta (3.5)

Contreras (3.1)

Mitchell (2.8)

Taylor (2.6)

Winker (2.4)

 

What type of season do you think Rowdy is going to have to get 3.8 WAR? 
 

Vlad Jr had similar BsR and defensive ratings as Rowdy last year and only put up 2.8 fWAR despite having a 132 wRC+with 107 more PA than Rowdy. 
 

Do you predict Rowdy’s baserunning and defensive improve or are you thinking he’s going to put up around a 140 wRC+?

[clancyphile]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

What type of season do you think Rowdy is going to have to get 3.8 WAR? 
 

Vlad Jr had similar BsR and defensive ratings as Rowdy last year and only put up 2.8 fWAR despite having a 132 wRC+with 107 more PA than Rowdy. 
 

Do you predict Rowdy’s baserunning and defensive improve or are you thinking he’s going to put up around a 140 wRC+?

I think he has a bit of an offensive breakout. Like 40 HR and his batting average is around .270.