Article: Should the Brewers Choose Garrett Mitchell or Sal Frelick as Their Opening Day Center Fielder?

[Tim Muma]

The Milwaukee Brewers will be relying on a rookie outfielder in some capacity in 2023. There could be a mix of players, or one prospect might step up to take hold of a starting spot. Since center field is the biggest question mark on the diamond in Milwaukee, it likely comes down to Garrett Mitchell or Sal Frelick on Opening Day.

Among the Milwaukee Brewers' high-end outfield prospects, Garrett Mitchell received the first call-up in 2022, and Sal Frelick looks poised to make his debut in 2023, but it isn't clear when that will happen. That is one significant decision the Brewers' front office will need to make, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The choice might be based on the club's prioritization and how one player or the other fits into the overall team's 2023 plan.

Although Mitchell got the first crack at a big-league job last season, Frelick is ranked higher in various top-100 prospect rankings. Frelick sits at 30 for MLB Pipeline, 34 for Baseball America, and 41 on Keith Law's rankings. Mitchell didn't even appear on the MLB Pipeline or Keith Law lists, which is interesting. Of course, prospect rankings aren't about projecting success in the coming season. For example, Jackson Chourio is Milwaukee's clear-cut top farmhand and likely center fielder of the future. Still, he's probably a couple of years away from (hopefully) being a full-time Major Leaguer. 

For 2023, the Brewers will evaluate which young center fielder can contribute the most immediately. Positional value is the first question. Is Frelick able to handle center field? Most view him as a corner outfielder in the majors, but he did win ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors as a center fielder at Boston College. He possesses the speed needed to cover all that ground and appears to have quality instincts as well. But some question his jumps and routes to the ball, believing he will be better served in right or left field. There are varying thoughts on Frelick's ability to be an MLB center fielder, but some are trending toward believing in his continued development defensively.

Mitchell, however, will be the favorite if Milwaukee wants to put a premium on defense this season. He showed off his range and arm during his short stint with the Brewers, turning raw ability into defensive production. Mitchell fits the center field profile better and has more experience manning that spot. As a run prevention club, a plus-defender like Mitchell would have the inside track in Milwaukee. You can see in the Fangraphs prospect evaluation below why the Brewers called up Mitchell late last season with an emphasis on speed and defense.

The script flips if the Brewers believe Frelick can be serviceable in center and want to add to their offense. MLB Pipeline gives Frelick a 70-hit tool (on a 20-80 scale), naming him the top prospect in baseball by hit tool. Across multiple levels in two minor league seasons, Frelick displayed plate discipline and a high-level stick with a .331/.406/.477/.882 slash line. While minor league stats aren't necessarily predictive of MLB success, that's an excellent place to start. He hasn't shown the power yet, but 36 doubles, 13 home runs, and 36 stolen bases to go with his hitting and on-base skills are impressive and tantalizing. Can it translate to immediate value for the Brewers? Here's how Fangraphs breaks him down, rating him as Milwaukee's third-best prospect while Mitchell ranks sixth.

Mitchell comes with a set of question marks at the plate. He brings more raw power to the table and 70-speed (Frelick is 60), an intriguing power-speed combo. The concerns for Mitchell lie primarily in his approach and struggles to make consistent contact. Though clearly a small sample, he owned a frightening 41.2% strikeout percentage with the Brewers. So while his numbers looked good (.373 OBP, .832 OPS), there were concerns facing MLB pitching. If he can improve his contact rate and limit the strikeouts (28 strikeouts in 68 plate appearances), his speed can be put to great use.

Overall, center field has been a weaker position in MLB in recent years. You'll often find a team employing a defensive whiz in center who can't hit or squeeze a solid hitter with defensive deficiencies into the position and hope for the best. It's a similar situation for the Brewers in choosing between Mitchell and Frelick. How will Milwaukee make its decision? Spring Training "tryouts" don't always give you the information you're looking for in an evaluation, but it might be necessary to break the "tie." Do the Brewers trust their current evaluation or put additional stock in how the kids perform in Arizona?

Especially in today's game, I value the high on-base percentage potential and great hit tool from Frelick. It might hurt the Brewers at times in center field, but with so many strikeouts and the value of defensive positioning, I think it's less of an issue. The ability to consistently reach base and make contact is more rare in MLB at this point. That's just one man's opinion. Which guy would you like to see handed the center field reins on Opening Day and why?

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[MrTPlush]

Garrett Mitchell showed enough promise in his short stint last year he should certainly be the opening day CFer. And what everyone doesn't want to hear, we can't afford to lose a potential year of control on a guy with the ceiling Frelick has. The production difference between Mitchell and Frelick for that month just wouldn't be a lot. 

[Jake McKibbin]

10 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Garrett Mitchell showed enough promise in his short stint last year he should certainly be the opening day CFer. And what everyone doesn't want to hear, we can't afford to lose a potential year of control on a guy with the ceiling Frelick has. The production difference between Mitchell and Frelick for that month just wouldn't be a lot. 

I very much agree with this, plus a lot of reports are that Frelick has some defensive work still to do, so leaving him down to focus on that, as well as allowing him to continue the growth he showed last year as he moved up each level. If he's bashing down doors and Mitchell struggles then that's grand, but if Mitchell shows ++ defense, with .220 hitting and stolen bases galore, then he'll probably be the first choice until service time shenanigans are sorted

[clancyphile]

To me, the big question is which player overcomes his biggest weakness? Can Mitchell reliably make contact in the majors, or is he a left-handed Keon Broxton?

Can Frelick improve his defense enough in CF, or is he instead going to be in LF with an eventual move to DH?

[Brock Beauchamp]

27 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Garrett Mitchell showed enough promise in his short stint last year he should certainly be the opening day CFer. And what everyone doesn't want to hear, we can't afford to lose a potential year of control on a guy with the ceiling Frelick has. The production difference between Mitchell and Frelick for that month just wouldn't be a lot. 

I generally agree with this. There just isn't a ton of upside of pushing Frelick right to the majors at the expense of Mitchell for less than a month of play.

Mitchell's peripherals terrify me and I'm pretty low on him overall but he held his own last season, enough to put him first in line to start this season.

[Tim Muma]

32 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Garrett Mitchell showed enough promise in his short stint last year he should certainly be the opening day CFer. And what everyone doesn't want to hear, we can't afford to lose a potential year of control on a guy with the ceiling Frelick has. The production difference between Mitchell and Frelick for that month just wouldn't be a lot. 

I contemplated noting this in the post, but didn't really want to focus on that aspect. I get that it is fair to bring it up, but man...I would hate to think the Brewers miss the playoffs or a division title because they settled for Mitchell & lost a few games in April/May they might have won with Frelick. That's assuming a lot, of course, but I'm a believer in doing the right things for the right reasons.

[Tim Muma]

7 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

To me, the big question is which player overcomes his biggest weakness? Can Mitchell reliably make contact in the majors, or is he a left-handed Keon Broxton?

Can Frelick improve his defense enough in CF, or is he instead going to be in LF with an eventual move to DH?

That is sort of the way I see it, too. Which player can prove to be more well-rounded by cleaning up their biggest weaknesses. Of course, you can't necessarily figure that out with one Spring Training, either. They could show improvements, but they might not be legit. It will be interesting to follow for sure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

That is sort of the way I see it, too. Which player can prove to be more well-rounded by cleaning up their biggest weaknesses. Of course, you can't necessarily figure that out with one Spring Training, either. They could show improvements, but they might not be legit. It will be interesting to follow for sure.

I don't know if there's anything Mitchell can show in ST to change his evaluations. Given his high K rate against MLB pitching, that doesn't translate well to spring training games when good pitchers walk to the mound saying "I'm going to throw my not-great changeup 40% of the time today" or batters get to face AAA pitchers with no real shot at pitching more than a handful of innings in the regular season.

Mitchell could look fantastic in spring training by feasting on bad/in-process pitches and have absolutely none of it translate to the regular season. Which is kinda why I'm leaning toward putting him out there to start the season; give him another legit shot and see what happens but be prepared to pivot to Frelick in a hurry.

[wibadgers23]

I think Mitchell is a lock to start the year in Milwaukee unless he absolutely flops or gets injured in ST.  I've accepted the fact that the Brewers will wait until at least May 1 to call up Frelick to gain the extra year of control.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'm still holding out hope that Mitchell starts in CF and Frelick in RF, with Taylor getting plenty of time as a backup at all three positions.  I think this would be the best lineup starting on opening day.  We'll see how they do in spring training, but I hope they force the issue.

[wiguy94]

Unrelated to who is starting in CF, but can't believe Longenhagen has Mitchell at 70 speed and 55 arm strength. The 55 arm strength is especially ridiculous when Mitchell was 96th percentile arm strength in his short MLB stint.

 

I think the opening day job is Mitchell's to lose. If he struggles in spring training and Frelick plays well I could see Frelick being the opening day CF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Unrelated to who is starting in CF, but can't believe Longenhagen has Mitchell at 70 speed and 55 arm strength. The 55 arm strength is especially ridiculous when Mitchell was 96th percentile arm strength in his short MLB stint.

Huh. An interesting note about the 96th percentile arm. It will be interesting to see if that moves downward with more playing time.

[wiguy94]

17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Huh. An interesting note about the 96th percentile arm. It will be interesting to see if that moves downward with more playing time.

So they determine OF arm strength by the average of their top 10% throws. More sample could make it go down, but his max is still really good.

Renfroe - 98.4 max, 93.8 overall

Mitchell - 96.8 max, 93.5 overall

[Playing Catch]

I really hope they both play a lot. Even if they just end up being replacement level players. If they are able to improve just a smidge in a couple areas, they will become 50-grade players. It's been a long time since the Brewers have developed a 50-grade player. Trent Grisham maybe? I'm not sure he's better than a 45.

In addition, I really want to see those left-handed speedsters wreaking havoc on the pitchers/IFers. Bunts, Butcher-boys, fielding errors, balks, stolen bases, hustle doubles, triples... That's fun.

[WV Brew]

Neither.  Counsell would only start MItchell against every other right hander last year.  Tyrone Taylor will be the opening day CF.  You need those wily veterans in there if you are Counsell.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, WV Brew said:

Neither.  Counsell would only start MItchell against every other right hander last year.  Tyrone Taylor will be the opening day CF.  You need those wily veterans in there if you are Counsell.

To be fair to Taylor, he had a really nice 2022 season. I’m not a big fan of him being a starter but he accumulated 2.1 WAR in about 400 PAs. 

[rickh150]

It will play itself out I’d like to believe. The better players will ultimately play and play more. However, on the other hand, when Cutch gets ridiculous ABs against righties last year, really wasted ABs, it is a fair point of concern who gets the early looks in April and May.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Given the status of the clock ticking on Burnes and Woodruff, it should be both from day 1. I'll say it again, some day even the most team sympathizing fans will be lamenting the years wasted with this pitching and wishing they had lined up the offensive talent sooner. Simply put, while I often side with the notion of holding a player back to manipulate service time, this is not the moment to be doing it with Frelick.

[bensheeps]

Does time away for the World Baseball Classic make Frelick's path to opening day in the big leagues easier or tougher?

 

[wiguy94]

21 minutes ago, bensheeps said:

Does time away for the World Baseball Classic make Frelick's path to opening day in the big leagues easier or tougher?

 

Feel like this probably makes it harder for Frelick to break into the team out of camp, but it will be better practice for Frelick playing against pitchers who are trying to win and not trying to work on their stuff. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

40 minutes ago, bensheeps said:

Does time away for the World Baseball Classic make Frelick's path to opening day in the big leagues easier or tougher?

It probably makes his path a bit harder simply because the coaching staff isn't watching him warm up, take BP, field, etc. for a few weeks. That's how teams do most of their evaluation during spring training and not being there is a disadvantage.

[SF70]

I don’t think it makes any difference since based on him saying he expects to begin the year at Nashville, my guess is the team has already told him that’s where he’ll be to start the year.

 

[DR28]

18 hours ago, WV Brew said:

Neither.  Counsell would only start MItchell against every other right hander last year.  Tyrone Taylor will be the opening day CF.  You need those wily veterans in there if you are Counsell.

And who will be playing RF? Cuz it sure as hell wont be Winker.

Our OF will be: Yeli in LF, Mitchell or Frelick in CF, Taylor in RF... Taylor and Tellez are headed for breakouts this season.

[Robocaller]

they should have Mitchell, Frelick, and Taylor splitting time in CF and RF, with some games at LF when Yelich is on the bench or DH.

[Robocaller]

they should have Mitchell, Frelick, and Taylor splitting time in CF and RF, with some games at LF when Yelich is on the bench or DH.