Recent Comments By Rockies Owner Reignites Offseason Ire

[nate82]

Sometimes getting players that don't cost all that much is better than spending it on the big time free agents.  If this were the NFL and a salary cap were in place and revenue was being shared equally by all of the teams then yeah the Brewers would have a spending problem.  Since that is not the case the Brewers really have a revenue problem and I don't see a solution that will fix this.

 

[jerichoholicninja]

So are we supposed to follow the Rockies model and spend money just to spend money? They spent boatloads on their bullpen a could years ago (remember Wade Davis?) and it got them nothing. They spend boatloads on Arenado and then paid the Cardinals to take him off their hands. They just spent stupid money on Kris Bryant that everyone knew was stupid before the ink even dried. 

The Rockies are possibly the worst run franchise in professional sports. I put zero stock in anything their owner says.

[PeterBal]

22 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

A bit funny that you ignore the two biggest offseason moves. I am sure it was just an honest mistake.

I was trying to delineate between trades and free agent signings.

[PeterBal]

9 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

So are we supposed to follow the Rockies model and spend money just to spend money? They spent boatloads on their bullpen a could years ago (remember Wade Davis?) and it got them nothing. They spend boatloads on Arenado and then paid the Cardinals to take him off their hands. They just spent stupid money on Kris Bryant that everyone knew was stupid before the ink even dried. 

The Rockies are possibly the worst run franchise in professional sports. I put zero stock in anything their owner says.

No, if you read my original post, I’m not advocating to spend money just to spend money. I’m asking the Brewers to make some bolder moves through free agency rather than placating its fan base through mediocre additions which only serves to make us a team that just “gets by.”

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

No, if you read my original post, I’m not advocating to spend money just to spend money. I’m asking the Brewers to make some bolder moves through free agency rather than placating its fan base through mediocre additions which only serves to make us a team that just “gets by.”

What moves, given the free agent contracts that were signed this offseason, would you have advocated the Brewers make?

[Redd Vencher]

3 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

No, if you read my original post, I’m not advocating to spend money just to spend money. I’m asking the Brewers to make some bolder moves through free agency rather than placating its fan base through mediocre additions which only serves to make us a team that just “gets by.”

What are the bold moves the Brewers haven't made should they be making? Vague gesturing does nothing for the conversation.

[wiguy94]

17 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

I was trying to delineate between trades and free agent signings.

Owen Miller was a trade and you included him in your four players listed. Again just another honest mistake I am sure.

[CheeseheadInQC]

27 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

No, if you read my original post, I’m not advocating to spend money just to spend money. I’m asking the Brewers to make some bolder moves through free agency rather than placating its fan base through mediocre additions which only serves to make us a team that just “gets by.”

The problem is, there were only what, 9 to 11 of those guys, and all the ones 35 or under got 5-plus years at $20+ million per. There was no real chance to be opportunistic, which they have shown a willingness to do in the past.

 I am on record as saying I would have done or topped (albeit slightly) the Wil Myers deal, but I am not going to pretend he is of a significantly higher tier than the two they signed.

[MrTPlush]

5 hours ago, TURBO said:

You can't argue that spending money doesn't increase your chances immensely though.  If that were the case, even the big market teams wouldn't spend the dough.

What exactly is immensely to you? Going into the playoffs even the big time favorite in each league maybe has a 10-14% chance. Good teams usually are about 8% and the fringe teams are like 4%. We could go spend Padres/Mets money and find ourselves increasing our chances MAYBE 10%...maybe. If you were being unrealistic and expected the Brewers to just break even with payroll (which idk, lets just say $40mil in payroll) we aren't much better off than we are now. Cubs/Cardinals/etc. spend a little chunk more than us and are exactly any more competitive than us lately. 

Big markets spend more money, but they make exponentially more. If our payroll was 50% of revenue, that is probably like 10% of a big markets. The Brewers aren't really all that different than a large market. A big market team could make more money by cutting payroll. The Yankees could run a Brewers sized payroll and be more profitable than they are now...but they don't. The Brewers could go trot out an A's sized payroll and make more profits...but they don't. Reality is, teams aren't full fledged businesses trying to maximize profits...but they also aren't charities. 

In my opinion large markets aren't necessarily trying to win a World Series. Their goal is to spend enough money that they can pretty much just win their division yearly. That is where the money is for them. Having consistent dominate regular season success to maximize interest in their teams.  After than it is diminishing returns on the money they spend. The Brewers don't have the fanbase/market to really grow much past what it is. The attendance numbers prove that. When we are competing the attendance will spike up...but every year of success past that we are lucky to add 20k extra fans through the gates. I am sure merchandise and TV viewership follows that same trend. 

That is exactly why I think the Brewers are trying to consistently be competitive but aren't making an effort to really make a strong team. #1 the team likely isn't much better through more investment and #2 it likely causes a rebuild where attendance plummets hundreds of thousands. Be a fringe WC contender with an occasional team strong enough to make an NLCS is where the Brewers make money.

A World Series is a short term revenue boom that quickly dies. KC ranked #26 in attendance before their World Series appearances. #25 the year they made the first one, #10 the year they won, #12 the year after, and now....and back to #26 in 2019. For them it brought out an extra 1mil to the ballpark in the short term...for us it probably would even attract a third of that because our attendance is already fairly strong. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Mets' top 5 starting pitchers + their closer will have a combined 2023 salary of about $143 Million dollars, almost assuredly much higher than what the entire Brewers' team payroll will be.  6 players out-earning a 40 man roster...and the hilarious thing is it's an almost guarantee the Mets will be in the trade market looking for starting pitching and bullpen help at this year's deadline, because all that money is going to a mix of ancient star veteran arms and UCL's held together by chicken wire.  When the financial scales are so uneven on the input side based on market size and team revenues, why even try to balance out the onfield payroll side if you're a small market team?  If you try to spend like the big boys you'll get overwhelmed anyway by deeper pockets - the better approach is to 'build a better mousetrap' on the front end of the organization to bring a steady stream of talent in before it gets incredibly expensive. 

Like it or not, the Brewers are already saddled with a longterm megadeal with Yelich, and as an organization they're going to have an incredibly difficult time affording a second one.  I don't see the point in arguing anything otherwise, because it would be fantasyland.

[PeterBal]

1 hour ago, Redd Vencher said:

What are the bold moves the Brewers haven't made should they be making? Vague gesturing does nothing for the conversation.

Never said they had to be bold.

Bold would’ve been going after Correa when his deals went south (the health concerns were pretty lame IMO). He said he’d play 3B with the Mets. Why not the Brewers? After all, the TWINS resigned him. Couldn’t we have?

Any suggestion I make here in this forum will be met with either A. How do you know the Brewers didn’t try for that player? Or B. Any myriad of reasons to argue my suggestions. But you know what, I’ll throw out some names I think the Crew could/could’ve used:

Nelson Cruz (he signed a 1 year/$1M - affordable and is STILL great hitter)

Michael Wacha (would stabilize the back end of our rotation and help should Woody have Reynaud’s issues in the earlier/colder part of our season)

Sean Manaea

Brandon Drury

Johnny Cueto

Jeimer Candelario

 

[PeterBal]

Just to wrap this up with a bow, I’ve got no need the folks in here defending the Brewers’ approach. I just don’t understand it. We all know, factually, what the issues are with the Brewers and the MLB. I guess, the difference is I’m not just going to sit back and accept it and say, “Well, it is what it is,” or, “We’ve been very competitive the last number of years.” Which, you’re right, we have been, but let’s not rest on our laurels and 1982.

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

Never said they had to be bold.

Bold would’ve been going after Correa when his deals went south (the health concerns were pretty lame IMO). He said he’d play 3B with the Mets. Why not the Brewers? After all, the TWINS resigned him. Couldn’t we have?

Any suggestion I make here in this forum will be met with either A. How do you know the Brewers didn’t try for that player? Or B. Any myriad of reasons to argue my suggestions. But you know what, I’ll throw out some names I think the Crew could/could’ve used:

Nelson Cruz (he signed a 1 year/$1M - affordable and is STILL great hitter)

Michael Wacha (would stabilize the back end of our rotation and help should Woody have Reynaud’s issues in the earlier/colder part of our season)

Sean Manaea

Brandon Drury

Johnny Cueto

Jeimer Candelario

 

You complained about the Miley/Anderson signings, and these are your suggestions? How are these suggestions any different than the Anderson/Miley signings? 

 

[MrTPlush]

7 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

Just to wrap this up with a bow, I’ve got no need the folks in here defending the Brewers’ approach. I just don’t understand it. We all know, factually, what the issues are with the Brewers and the MLB. I guess, the difference is I’m not just going to sit back and accept it and say, “Well, it is what it is,” or, “We’ve been very competitive the last number of years.” Which, you’re right, we have been, but let’s not rest on our laurels and 1982.

I don't know that people are defending it. They just understand that is the reality and it isn't going to change. You can beat a dead horse complaining about it, but it won't change anything. To me it doesn't make sense to be miserable complaining about the economics of baseball. What is the point of watching? The result is going to be the exact same every single year. If we won the World Series, right after the parade your crowd would be holding pitchforks as we proceed to trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames because we can't afford them. 

I hate to say it, but Mark Attanasio isn't going to suddenly make the Brewers payroll $50mil more than it is. No one past, present, or in the future will. 

[PeterBal]

7 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

You complained about the Miley/Anderson signings, and these are your suggestions? How are these suggestions any different than the Anderson/Miley signings? 

 

Dude, are you kidding me? 

[wiguy94]

Just now, PeterBal said:

Dude, are kidding me? 

Not at all.

Cruz will be 42 next year and fell off a cliff last year in basically every single hitting category barrel rate, hard hit rate, EV, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, xwOBACON, and hard hit rate.

In the last two seasons Wacha has 252 IP with 4.18 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 3.95 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP

In the last two seasons Manaea has 337 IP with 4.40 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 3.78 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP

Drury had a great year last year, but he overperformed his xwOBA by 34 points. His .316 xwOBA was only 7 points higher than Anderson's .309 xwOBA despite Anderson playing injured for basically half the season. (I think Drury over Anderson is a very fair argument but acting like one is substantially better than the other is a bit too much)

In the last two season Cueto has 273 IP with 3.66 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.33 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP

Canelario is coming off a season with an 80 wRC+ where his xwOBA was 17 points lower than Anderson and his BB-rate cratered to 6%.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Not at all.

Cruz will be 42 next year and fell off a cliff last year in basically every single hitting category barrel rate, hard hit rate, EV, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, xwOBACON, and hard hit rate.

In the last two seasons Wacha has 252 IP with 4.18 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 3.95 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP

In the last two seasons Manaea has 337 IP with 4.40 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 3.78 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP

Drury had a great year last year, but he overperformed his xwOBA by 34 points. His .316 xwOBA was only 7 points higher than Anderson's .309 xwOBA despite Anderson playing injured for basically half the season. (I think Drury over Anderson is a very fair argument but acting like one is substantially better than the other is a bit too much)

In the last two season Cueto has 273 IP with 3.66 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.33 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP

Canelario is coming off a season with an 80 wRC+ where his xwOBA was 17 points lower than Anderson and his BB-rate cratered to 6%.

Yes, but Miley and Anderson and Winker and Contreras were the guys the Brewers brought in, and they'd be so much better had they spent way more $$ to bring other names in with a similar expected performance for 2023.  How dare they be so cheap!  Wait, they better not raise ticket prices to 75% of what the Cubs and Cards tickets cost to try and get their gameday revenues in a more competitive range to their primary divisional opponents?  How dare they!

Love these dead of winter baseball financial arguments...

[CheeseheadInQC]

36 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

Never said they had to be bold.

Bold would’ve been going after Correa when his deals went south (the health concerns were pretty lame IMO). He said he’d play 3B with the Mets. Why not the Brewers? After all, the TWINS resigned him. Couldn’t we have?

Any suggestion I make here in this forum will be met with either A. How do you know the Brewers didn’t try for that player? Or B. Any myriad of reasons to argue my suggestions. But you know what, I’ll throw out some names I think the Crew could/could’ve used:

Nelson Cruz (he signed a 1 year/$1M - affordable and is STILL great hitter)

Michael Wacha (would stabilize the back end of our rotation and help should Woody have Reynaud’s issues in the earlier/colder part of our season)

Sean Manaea

Brandon Drury

Johnny Cueto

Jeimer Candelario

 

Outside of Manaea, who is steady but unspectacular and fairly low-risk, and Drury, who I'm guessing is pretty polarizing among front offices, most of these guys represent variations on the same theme that the Brewers signed. Wacha and Cueto are veterans who suffered through injuries and mid-career struggles before putting together solid performances recently, just like Miley. Candelario and Cruz are bounceback candidates just like Anderson.

Could you make the case that the guys you picked would be better options? Sure you could. But it is a difference of preference not of strategy.

[PeterBal]

10 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Outside of Manaea, who is steady but unspectacular and fairly low-risk, and Drury, who I'm guessing is pretty polarizing among front offices, most of these guys represent variations on the same theme that the Brewers signed. Wacha and Cueto are veterans who suffered through injuries and mid-career struggles before putting together solid performances recently, just like Miley. Candelario and Cruz are bounceback candidates just like Anderson.

Could you make the case that the guys you picked would be better options? Sure you could. But it is a difference of preference not of strategy.

I guess I can agree with that (difference of preference vs strategy), but those choice can be the difference makers, I suppose.

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, PeterBal said:

Never said they had to be bold.

Bold would’ve been going after Correa when his deals went south (the health concerns were pretty lame IMO). He said he’d play 3B with the Mets. Why not the Brewers? After all, the TWINS resigned him. Couldn’t we have?

Any suggestion I make here in this forum will be met with either A. How do you know the Brewers didn’t try for that player? Or B. Any myriad of reasons to argue my suggestions. But you know what, I’ll throw out some names I think the Crew could/could’ve used:

Nelson Cruz (he signed a 1 year/$1M - affordable and is STILL great hitter)

Michael Wacha (would stabilize the back end of our rotation and help should Woody have Reynaud’s issues in the earlier/colder part of our season)

Sean Manaea

Brandon Drury

Johnny Cueto

Jeimer Candelario

 

You're the one who brought up being bold in the OP. The Brewers aren't spending $280 M on a single player, so you're better off supporting a different team if that's the only bold move you can think of. They can probably get both Adames and Woodruff extended for less money than Correa signed for.

Nelson Cruz is 42, and he was bad last year. I don't know if counting on a 42 year old DH only player is a good idea.

Michael Wacha 2018-2022 497.0 IP 4.33 ERA 95 ERA+ 4.69 FIP 4.22 xFIP

Sean Manaea 2018-2022 581.2 IP 4.02 ERA 100 ERA+ 4.05 FIP 3.94 xFIP

Johnny Cueto 2018-2022 405.1 IP 3.93 ERA 103 ERA+ 4.19 FIP 4.45 xFIP

Wade Miley 2018-2022 462.1 IP 3.50 ERA 129 ERA+ 4.12 FIP 4.33 xFIP

Looks like they got the best of those pitchers on the cheapest deal.

You're banking on Brandon Drury finally figuring things out at age 30 when he's been bad his entire career. I would not have given him the deal the Angels did.

Candelario would have been an interesting bounceback candidate, but he was worse than Anderson last year without the clear injury to point to like Anderson. Candelario is also a worse defender, so you're getting the defense if he isn't hitting.

[PeterBal]

25 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Not at all.

Cruz will be 42 next year and fell off a cliff last year in basically every single hitting category barrel rate, hard hit rate, EV, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, xwOBACON, and hard hit rate.

In the last two seasons Wacha has 252 IP with 4.18 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 3.95 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP

In the last two seasons Manaea has 337 IP with 4.40 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 3.78 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP

Drury had a great year last year, but he overperformed his xwOBA by 34 points. His .316 xwOBA was only 7 points higher than Anderson's .309 xwOBA despite Anderson playing injured for basically half the season. (I think Drury over Anderson is a very fair argument but acting like one is substantially better than the other is a bit too much)

In the last two season Cueto has 273 IP with 3.66 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.33 xFIP. In the last two years Miley has 200 IP with 3.33 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 4.14 xFIP

Canelario is coming off a season with an 80 wRC+ where his xwOBA was 17 points lower than Anderson and his BB-rate cratered to 6%.

Well then, golly, by the massive amount of numbers you shared, the Brewers got the steals of free agency! LOL

One bad year and Cruz isn’t an option? That’s the shortsightedness I’m talking about with a lot of Brewer fans who defend this strategy. His whole career he has a .859 OPS. He torches left hand pitching (.316/.375.538) which was what Cutch was SUPPOSED to do. Plus, he’s being 18 years of MLB experience which would be very helpful to all the youngsters the Crew is likely bringing up this year, plus it would make for a great homecoming story.

Wacha is coming off his best season since 2017 in terms of fWAR (3.1 in '17), finishing the 2022 campaign with a 1.5 fWAR with the Boston Red Sox as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter in that rotation. Starting with the basic numbers, Wacha had a 3.32 ERA, 7.35 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, and a 1.27 HR/9. These are pretty solid for a third/fourth starter in most MLB rotations.

Last year, Manaea pitched 158 innings, just about a full load for a starting pitcher in 2022. He was worth negative WAR, and not just barely - he posted nearly a full win below replacement, becoming one of five pitchers in the majors who did so despite throwing at least 150 innings.

Cueto reinvented himself and had a bounceback season with the White Sox in 2022, in which he posted a 3.35 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 25 games (24 starts) over 158 1/3 innings.

See? Anyone can post numbers to support anything. 

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

Well then, golly, by the massive amount of numbers you shared, the Brewers got the steals of free agency! LOL

One bad year and Cruz isn’t an option? That’s the shortsightedness I’m talking about with a lot of Brewer fans who defend this strategy.

I never said we signed the steals of FA. I said the players you suggested are remarkably similar to the players we actually signed and then put out some numbers to support that.

Cruz is 42 years old. The list of 42 year olds that bounce back from their worst season in 15+ years is likely pretty small. We also traded for Jesse Winker to be our DH who had a wRC+ 24 points higher than Cruz last year and an xwOBA 25 points higher. 

[nate82]

13 minutes ago, PeterBal said:

One bad year and Cruz isn’t an option? That’s the shortsightedness I’m talking about with a lot of Brewer fans who defend this strategy. His whole career he has a .859 OPS. He torches left hand pitching (.316/.375.538) which was what Cutch was SUPPOSED to do. Plus, he’s being 18 years of MLB experience which would be very helpful to all the youngsters the Crew is likely bringing up this year, plus it would make for a great homecoming story.

It wouldn't just be the one bad year for Cruz it is his age.  At 42 the risk of him having another season like he had last year is extremely high.  That is just a dumb risk to take on a player like Cruz at his age.  It is why he only signed for $1m and only had a few teams reach out to him.  Winker will be the better player in 2023. 

Regardless of the story it is more likely that Cruz has a Cain 2022 season than he will have a McCutchen type 2022 season. 

[PeterBal]

4 minutes ago, nate82 said:

It wouldn't just be the one bad year for Cruz it is his age.  At 42 the risk of him having another season like he had last year is extremely high.  That is just a dumb risk to take on a player like Cruz at his age.  It is why he only signed for $1m and only had a few teams reach out to him.  Winker will be the better player in 2023. 

Regardless of the story it is more likely that Cruz has a Cain 2022 season than he will have a McCutchen type 2022 season. 

This will be great experiment then because the start of this thread was comparing how the Padres handled the off-season as opposed to the Brewers. So, in a microcosmic manner, it’ll be interesting to see how Cruz performs vs Winker as well as the other guys I suggested vs. Miley and Brian Anderson.

[PeterBal]

And then we also have this to add to my original points above about how dumb this whole baseball economics situation is and how the Brewers use it as a crutch.

“MLB’s biggest problem in the last few years is that too many teams have not really cared about whether their teams win or lose. They’ll say all the right things, and maybe make just enough signings or trades to fool their idiotic portion of their fanbases into buying tickets or for a new team jersey, but it’s all a ruse.”

https://deadspin.com/bally-sports-sinclair-mlb-tv-jack-edwards-pat-maroon-1850039587?utm_campaign=Deadspin&utm_content=1674846013&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3vBQspWKx-T-ER5PgDPW6iAtROHaP7Up3EoUpmZZj9A-zlCMkN3f4sTdg&mibextid=Zxz2cZ