Packers failure to develop players

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Has anyone else noticed that nearly ever Packer starter is a high round draft pick or a free agent?  Ever since GM Brian Gutenkunst took over the lack of player development is a glaring weakness on this team of old, aging veterans.  I don't know if it is coaching or whether the GM is drafting rather poorly in the later rounds.

[reillymcshane]

20 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Has anyone else noticed that nearly ever Packer starter is a high round draft pick or a free agent?  Ever since GM Brian Gutenkunst took over the lack of player development is a glaring weakness on this team of old, aging veterans.  I don't know if it is coaching or whether the GM is drafting rather poorly in the later rounds.

I'm not sure if this is correct - as I don't really know the average 'success' metric for this. But here's a run down of the Gute's drafts. I included the 1-3 picks (I basically consider those the premium picks in a draft). I also included any lower drafted players who have had success. This doesn't include free agents.

Without question, it's a mixed bag. The 3rd round picks have been pretty bad. 

Again, I don't know if this is on par with other team's drafts. Perhaps we are actually better. Or worse. 

However, it's easy to lament the missed opportunities (which is easy to say after the fact). I'm sure there are lots of these picks where we all can say, "I told you he'd suck" or "that was a reach" or whatever. But there are picks where it seemed like great value at the time. Player dev is a crapshoot - to some degree. Add in injuries and other unforeseen circumstances - and you just never know. 

Curious what others think? Has Gute missed too often with his high picks? Or has he done all right? 

2018
1 - Jaire Alexander
2 - Josh Jackson 
3 - Oren Burks
5 - Marquez Valdes-Scantling

2019
1 - Rashan Gary
1 - Darnell Savage
2 - Elton Jenkins
3 - Jace Sternberger

2020
1 - Jordan Love
2 - AJ Dillon
3 - Josiah Deguara
6 - John Runyan Jr.

2021
1 - Eric Stokes 
2 - Josh Myers
3 - Amari Rodgers

2022
1 - Quay Walker
1 - Devonte Wyatt
2 - Christian Watson
3 - Sean Ryhan
4 - Romeo Doubs

 

[wallus]

He should not be allowed to draft anyone in the 3rd round.

[CheezWizHed]

It's insteresting how GMs have drafting strength and weakness trends.  Gute has done well in the 1st round, but the joke was that TT should always trade out of the 1st round.  He had a ton of misses.  Wolf was a mixed bag in the 1st and 2nd round, but made hay in the 3rd and 4 rounds.

All three seem to find 4th/5th round OL pretty well. 

If Gute could draft the first round, TT take the second (especially WRs), and Wolf take 3-7th... we'd have tons of talent. 

[SeaBass]

Anecdotally I feel like it's par for the course. I don't have a problem with his draft picks, there are some solid guys there. Also, 1st round picks don't all have to be 1st ballot hall of fame players or be dubbed busts. People bag on Savage but he's an average (sure even below avg) starting player. That's not the worst thing ever. Could he be replaced? Of course but you want your 1st rounders to at least be starters and he's doing that. Again, that position is upgradable I'm not denying that, he's just not a Pro Bowl guy. Whatever. He's not Josh Jackson bad or he wouldn't still be here.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's not so much developing players at the NFL level - players 'develop' during their 3-5 years in college.  If there's any development going on at the NFL level from a coaching perspective, it's with uber-talented but raw prospects drafted solely because of their potential high in the draft (Gary) or practice squad guys who have to fight tooth and nail to continue earning an NFL paycheck.  I think it's about consistently finding players who can hold down NFL roster spots in the top 4 rounds of every draft, and then hitting a home run with at least 1 pick a draft.  Gute has hit some home runs (Jenkins, Alexander, Gary, Walker, Watson?), but has struggled to maximize value and fit with middle round picks in a few drafts.  Those are the guys some people may view as players that develop into NFL starters based on their draft profile, but in reality it's just that those are the players who may not be the most talented/athletically gifted at certain positions but they can play well at the NFL level in the right system.

[nate82]

Just now, Fear The Chorizo said:

It's not so much developing players at the NFL level - players 'develop' during their 3-5 years in college.  If there's any development going on at the NFL level from a coaching perspective, it's with uber-talented but raw prospects drafted solely because of their potential high in the draft (Gary) or practice squad guys who have to fight tooth and nail to continue earning an NFL paycheck.  I think it's about consistently finding players who can hold down NFL roster spots in the top 4 rounds of every draft, and then hitting a home run with at least 1 pick a draft.  Gute has hit some home runs (Jenkins, Alexander, Gary, Walker, Watson?), but has struggled to maximize value and fit with middle round picks in a few drafts.  Those are the guys some people may view as players that develop into NFL starters based on their draft profile, but in reality it's just that those are the players who may not be the most talented/athletically gifted at certain positions but they can play well at the NFL level in the right system.

There is plenty of room for players to grow from college to the NFL.  Normally you see this in OL and DL where they will come in bad shape overweight or under weight.  Usually in the second year after using the facilities and trainers from the NFL you will see a jump in some players.  If the player shows good technique and they put in the work in the off season and workout you usually see a second year bump.  The players look completely different from year 1 versus year 2.  Well for the ones who actually put in the work and do the off season workouts.  There is a term in the NFL that the scouts use that I am completely forgetting but there is a definite transition from year 1 to year 2 physically that the players go through. 

There are a lot of busts but I thought Josh Jackson would be a good defensive back.  The problem with Jackson is that he would have been a better roving center fielder on defense but he never got bigger to play the safety position.  I thought he could of been an Ed Reed type of a player at safety or a bigger version of Charles Tillman at safety instead of CB.  Jackson had all of the instincts to be a ball hawk and get interceptions down the field he just never made the transition from CB to Safety.

I believe the issue with MVS was that he was always injured or it seemed like he was always injured.  When I had him on my fantasy league I thought he was going to turn into something special and he had a few games here and there where he looked he could be.  Then all of a sudden he was injured or didn't play or wasn't in the game plan at all.  MVS is surely playing well enough for the Chiefs right now.  Sometimes you just miss on a guy or a change of scenery is what is needed.  Also it helps when you can get away from a QB like Rodgers who will hold a grudge against you for dropping a pass or causing him to throw an interception even if it was his fault. 

[LouisEly]

People forget that Josh Jackson looked good his first year.  Then, perhaps due to a change in defensive scheme, he was a poor fit for what they were doing.  I think he thrived in zone where he could sit back and read the QB and see where the play was going in front of him but struggled with man-to-man and having his back to the QB.  (Or vice-versa.)

Sometimes players just aren't a good fit for the scheme that they run, especially if they change coordinators (Jackson).  Sometimes you can't uncover that a player has a substance abuse issue (Sternberger) or that a player is going to get lazy once he gets some money in his pocket (Rodgers) or predict that he'll get hurt right away and lose development time (Deguara).

Josh Jackson and Oren Burks are still in the league.  Four players drafted in the 2nd round and four players drafted in the third round in 2018 were out of the league as of the start of the 2022 season,  Four players drafted in the first round in 2020 are out of the league.