Burnes/Woodruff/Adames Extension thread

[Brewcrew82]

Willy, “We haven’t had any conversations yet.” Same answer as Corbin in August….

And then haggling with Corbin, aka the best pitcher in baseball the past three seasons, over $700k…

I’m under no apprehension that we’ll be able to sign each of the big 3, but this is getting concerning from this FO…

[Oxy]

Trade one, trade all, as long as we get a haul...

[wiguy94]

Adames told McCalvy in November that he had conversations about a longterm deal, so not sure why he’s saying now that they haven’t had conversations. 

[MVP2110]

What's weird is a few months ago Adames actually said they had conversations about it

 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Adames told McCalvy in November that he had conversations about a longterm deal, so not sure why he’s saying now that they haven’t had conversations. 

I believe that was with Stearns. Could mean he hasn’t had further conversations since Arnold took over. Regardless, a statement like that does ring some alarm bells.

Clock is ticking with these guys…

[sveumrules]

My offers would be…

Woodruff: 5/140
(24: $16M | 25-28: $31M)

Adames: 7/151
(24: $13M | 25-30: $23M)

Burnes: 7/220
(23: $11M | 24: $19M | 25-29: $38M)

[MrTPlush]

56 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

My offers would be…

Woodruff: 5/140
(24: $16M | 25-28: $31M)

Adames: 7/151
(24: $13M | 25-30: $23M)

Burnes: 7/220
(23: $11M | 24: $19M | 25-29: $38M)

Woodruff: 5/$125mil

Adames: 0/$0mil

Burnes: We can’t afford him.

[Jake McKibbin]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Willy, “We haven’t had any conversations yet.” Same answer as Corbin in August….

And then haggling with Corbin, aka the best pitcher in baseball the past three seasons, over $700k…

I’m under no apprehension that we’ll be able to sign each of the big 3, but this is getting concerning from this FO…

I was listening to the tailgate podcast last night and they mentioned something quite interesting

Apparently before you put an offer through for a player, 2 days before the player gets his arb offer the other team owners get to see, and throw up stink over it (unsure how much sway they have), because it becomes the new baseline for other pitchers. You can guarantee if it meant paying 750k to Corbin it wouldn't be that big a deal, but other teams can pressure you and on top of that, the 750 sets a new benchmark for future arb cases, meaning everyones starts to go up a bit

I genuinely dont think this is about 750k for Burnes, as the publicity is worth that to be left in peace, but it is more complicated than it seems at first glance

[Jake McKibbin]

8 hours ago, sveumrules said:

My offers would be…

Woodruff: 5/140
(24: $16M | 25-28: $31M)

Adames: 7/151
(24: $13M | 25-30: $23M)

Burnes: 7/220
(23: $11M | 24: $19M | 25-29: $38M)

Yeah these seem reasonable-ish, i think Adames will get 10 mil more depending on this season, probably closer to Swanson

Woody may get 6 years (and actually think he's a steal, he's probably underrated because of Burnes, but he was lights out last year when healthy). I wonder if he'd take even 6 years, or if he might want to return to his homeland for a bigger deal

Burnes is getting a 10+ year deal somewhere, so the AAV is entirely fair, the length isnt quite what he'll want

[sveumrules]

4 hours ago, jakedood said:

Yeah these seem reasonable-ish, i think Adames will get 10 mil more depending on this season, probably closer to Swanson

Woody may get 6 years (and actually think he's a steal, he's probably underrated because of Burnes, but he was lights out last year when healthy). I wonder if he'd take even 6 years, or if he might want to return to his homeland for a bigger deal

Burnes is getting a 10+ year deal somewhere, so the AAV is entirely fair, the length isnt quite what he'll want

I was trying to thread the needle between being enough money that it would be tempting/fair value and also being able to hit FA at the end of the extension potentially having a shot at one last multi year deal to close out their careers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

And then haggling with Corbin, aka the best pitcher in baseball the past three seasons, over $700k…

I'm also concerned about how (primarily Stearns) the front office is managing a lot of things (like the fact an extension of any of them last year would have saved mountains, absolute mountains, of cash) but I think people are blowing the $700k out of proportion.

1. $700k is actually a really big gap in arbitration

2. Every arbitration case sets a precedent for all MLB teams; it's literally the job of a front office to not instantly concede to a higher precedent

With that said, I still don't like how most of this has been handled, at least how we perceive it from the outside. Hearing Burnes complain about lack of discussion last year was a pretty bad sign. Hearing Adames say the same half a year later certainly doesn't make me feel any better.

[jerichoholicninja]

No thanks on Adames unless it's incredibly team friendly. He's not a break the bank kind of player.

I'd love to extend either pitcher a few years but that's just not going to happen. Burnes wants and will get a brinks truck full of cash from someone and Woodruff will get a slightly smaller brinks truck.

[stoutdude04]

2 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

No thanks on Adames unless it's incredibly team friendly. He's not a break the bank kind of player.

I'd love to extend either pitcher a few years but that's just not going to happen. Burnes wants and will get a brinks truck full of cash from someone and Woodruff will get a slightly smaller brinks truck.

Agreed, and I really like Adames.  However, I think a lot of people are still remembering how he carried the offense when he first joined the team AND the fact that he is a super likable player with an incredible personality.

[brewmann04]

Sorry to beat a dead horse but  Burnes will be moved somewhere down the road 

[tmwiese55]

Yea there's no harm in throwing something out there to Burnes like was proposed here.   But, after the contracts handed out this offseason he'd be a fool to take it. Perhaps he'd agree to a 2 year deal to cover his arby and then a player option for the 3rd but then if you're the Brewers what's the point?     Best case is he is amazing again this year, helps lead them on a deep playoff run of some kind, wins Cy Young and then you get a massive haul from someone in the offseason. 

[brooks_quichenick]

9 hours ago, jakedood said:

I was listening to the tailgate podcast last night and they mentioned something quite interesting

Apparently before you put an offer through for a player, 2 days before the player gets his arb offer the other team owners get to see, and throw up stink over it (unsure how much sway they have), because it becomes the new baseline for other pitchers. You can guarantee if it meant paying 750k to Corbin it wouldn't be that big a deal, but other teams can pressure you and on top of that, the 750 sets a new benchmark for future arb cases, meaning everyones starts to go up a bit

I genuinely dont think this is about 750k for Burnes, as the publicity is worth that to be left in peace, but it is more complicated than it seems at first glance

Textbook collusion if true.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

Textbook collusion if true.

It's true, it's collusion, and it's entirely legal thanks to baseball's anti-trust exemption and the terms that arbitration were agreed upon in... the 60s? 50s? I think 60s, it was pre-free agency.

[Fear The Chorizo]

No thanks on an extension to any of them, tbh - guys the Brewers should be thinking about inking to longterm contracts that buy out a few years of free agency are at the likes of Mitchell and then Turang/Frelick potentially later this season.  Chourio is even a guy Brewers' management should be allocating future spending on in hopes of signing a mega contract in the next couple of years if he continues his march towards being a MLB star.

Burnes will be a free agent for his age 30 season....the Brewers can either trade him for a haul before that or thank him for his prime years of production after paying him year to year in arbitration at the 2024 season trade deadline.

Woodruff will be 32 when he becomes a free agent after the 2024 season - same goes for him.

Adames might be a more realistic extension candidate, if not for the SS market insanity this offseason - no way do I want the Brewers paying anything close to the going rate for a good but not elite veteran SS who can't get on base.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

No thanks on an extension to any of them, tbh - guys the Brewers should be thinking about inking to longterm contracts that buy out a few years of free agency are at the likes of Mitchell and then Turang/Frelick potentially later this season.  Chourio is even a guy Brewers' management should be allocating future spending on in hopes of signing a mega contract in the next couple of years if he continues his march towards being a MLB star.

Burnes will be a free agent for his age 30 season....the Brewers can either trade him for a haul before that or thank him for his prime years of production after paying him year to year in arbitration at the 2024 season trade deadline.

Woodruff will be 32 when he becomes a free agent after the 2024 season - same goes for him.

Adames might be a more realistic extension candidate, if not for the SS market insanity this offseason - no way do I want the Brewers paying anything close to the going rate for a good but not elite veteran SS who can't get on base.

I don't think these two approaches conflict with one another. If you're extending one of the big three, you're extending them for six years, maximum. None of the prospects you listed will earn enough money to meaningfully impact payroll for 4+ years. There's plenty of room to do both and I think they should do both.

[BlazingGunz]

Do they still give that WWF belt to the team that beats the most players in arby each year?

[MVP2110]

I think the most realistic candidate to extend is Woodruff. I can't imagine they want to give 7 or 8 years to Adames who is good but not great and Burnes seems completely out of their price range