Brian Anderson to Brewers!!!! Yes!!!

[MrTPlush]

On 1/19/2023 at 6:09 PM, brewcrewdue80 said:

I get withholding a minute portion of players til Super 2 is passed. But a vast majority its not making a difference.

Gain potential extra year of control and potentially gain a lot down the road. 

OR

If we hold him back and he doesn't perform as well or even gets sent back down at some point, who cares, we lost nothing then. At that point holding him back didn't cost us any performance, so what does it matter?

 

[endaround]

18 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Gain potential extra year of control and potentially gain a lot down the road. 

OR

If we hold him back and he doesn't perform as well or even gets sent back down at some point, who cares, we lost nothing then. At that point holding him back didn't cost us any performance, so what does it matter?

 

Super 2 is different than an additional year.  Super 2 just makes it one less year of arbitration ( 3 instead of 4) but at the cost of close to a half season of playing time.  The difference between mid April and the beginning of July. 

[wibadgers23]

13 minutes ago, endaround said:

Super 2 is different than an additional year.  Super 2 just makes it one less year of arbitration ( 3 instead of 4) but at the cost of close to a half season of playing time.  The difference between mid April and the beginning of July. 

I can't seem to wrap my head around the difference between a mid-April vs. mid-season callup.  Can you explain a little further the difference between the two?  

[endaround]

34 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

I can't seem to wrap my head around the difference between a mid-April vs. mid-season callup.  Can you explain a little further the difference between the two?  

OK.  These both have to do with contract status in the future.  To reach free agency a player needs a full 6 years of service time.  If they end their six major league season with a full 6 years they are a free agent for the next season.  If however, they end with 5.9 years, they are still under control of the current club in the arbitration process.  A full season of credit is less than a full season (i.e. you can't just hold a player back for 1 game to prevent a full season of service) but 2 to 3 weeks should cover it (I don't remember the exact days anymore).

Super 2 deals with arbitration.  Typically a player requires 3 years of service to enter arbitration, but unlike free agency there is not a fixed set of time needed.  Players with close to 3 years of service time after their third season will be eligible for arbitration, hence they are "Super 2" since they have less than 3 years.  The cutoff date varies based upon the service time of all players in the class. Its usually about mid June but can be a week or two later so July 1st is usually safe.

What does this mean then for a player?

A player debuting in late April 2023 and then remaining in MLB would be under fixed contracts for 2023, 2024, and 2025.  He would be arbitration eligible for 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 becoming a free agent for 2030.  Arbitration salaries tend to go 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% of free agent value so the fourth year can get costly for a really good player but its still discounted.

A player debuting in July 2023 and then remaining in MLB would be under fixed contracts for 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. He would be arbitration eligible for 2027, 2028, and 2029 becoming a free agent for 2030.  So by keeping a player down for 2.5 more months you reduce the number of arbitration years.

What a team should do is really dependent on the projection for the player, if the team is currently competing and the replacements they have.  Given the Brewers hope to compete it is likely more advantageous not to wait for Super 2 if they believe the prospect is significantly better than the alternative.

The new ROY changes to the CBA can cause all of these calculations to fly out with players potentially receiving a full year of service time regardless of debut date.  ROY is a weird vote since winners can go from solid starters to MVP level candidates. So someone like Frelick who could hit for high average or steal dozens of bases might not win a ROY but could find himself on lots of ballots in 2nd and 3rd place.

 

[wibadgers23]

Very much appreciated, @endaround.  Thank you.  So you basically you gain an extra year of pre-arby (which is cheap comparatively) by keeping the player down until mid-season.  They become a free agent the same year, regardless.  My gut tells me they won't wait around until mid-season to call Frelick up.

[brewcrewdue80]

On 1/27/2023 at 2:15 AM, Robocaller said:

I've come to think he means valuable in the fantasy baseball context, which I think has modest to no relevance to real world baseball value.

 

On 1/26/2023 at 10:07 AM, wiguy94 said:

HR are also a lot more valuable than singles which you’re completely ignoring. Maybe Frelick is more valuable 4 days a week but that value won’t compare to the value Taylor has in the game he homers.

In the vacuum of the single play of course a HR is a lot more valuable.  Off of Taylor's HR log for last season:

1-Ahead 6-3  Solo HR.  Final score 10-5(no impact from HR)

2-Ahead 4-0 8th inning 3Run HR Final Score 7-0  No Impact

3-Behind 0-8  Solo HR  Final Score 2-8  No Impact

4- Tied 1-1  3Run HR 6th inning. Final Score  4-1 Win  Large Impact.

5-Behind 2-4 top 6th 2 Run HR.  Final Score 7-6 Win.  2nd largest impact on game.

6-Ahead 2-1 top 8  Solo HR  Final Score 3-1 win.  positive impact but not in top 5 plays in game

7-Tied 0-0 Bot 5th  2Run HR  Final Score 2-0  Large Impact.

8-Down 1-2 Bot 4  3Run HR  Final Score 6-4  Large Impact #1 play in game

9-Behind 1-8 Bot 7 Solo HR Final Score 4-9  No Impact

10-Behind 5-6 Bot 6  Solo HR ties game Final score 10-9 5th largest impact on game

11-Ahead 8-4 Top 9  Solo HR Final Score 9-4  No Impact

12-Ahead 2-0 Bot 2 3Run HR Final Score 5-1  2nd largest impact on game

13-Tied 0-0 Bot 5  Solo HR  Final Score  3-4(10) not in top 5 plays of game

14&15- 2HR game  Won in 10th aided by Taylor's 2nd HR.  Largest Impact yet.

16-Behind 0-5 Bot 3 2Run HR  Final Score 2-8.  No Impact

17-Ahead 3-1 Bot 2  Solo HR   Final Score 8-12  No Impact.

16 Games 17HRs.   7 Large Impact HRs.   6 No Impact HRs.  4 Modest impact HRs.

Taylor played in 120 games.  103 Started.  7 Games largely impacted by the HRs.  And looks like about 2 Games worth via his defense over an average defender.

Even adding the 4 modest HR games to make it 13 games overall that doesn't even add up to once a week impact when you are praising those HR he hits.  If he played LF or RF you are disappointed at the lack of HRs with the rest of the batting line.  Being able to play CF defensively is what is saving him from just a waiver wire pass around.

 

I mentioned the Fantasy baseball to give an idea where I even come up with that removing HR statistic.  When I played there were 7 categories for Offense.  Finishing up the last 50pct of the draft, I would have already identified the high floor players who I could target with my picks and they would present better chance of winning  the categories because they were average or little better in categories I targeted to win in my strategy.  BA/OB/Slg  Rs HRs, RBIs and SBs.  I'd punt SBs.  Stay away from 7-9 hitters.  Win or 2nd 5 straight years.   The floor that Frelick will provide with getting on base via hits or walks compared to Taylor's occasional HRs I just feel will help the Brewers more scoring runs in run scoring situations. It's a team game he's going to allow batters behind chances to drive him in compared to the chances Taylor gives. 

[sveumrules]

On the one hand comparing Frelick and Taylor is tricky. They’re two completely opposite hitters.

One is (hopefully) high AVG/OBP with low ISO, the other is known low AVG/OBP with high ISO.

But on the other hand, it really isn’t that tricky after all.

We might have our aesthetic preferences, but ultimately production is production. The shape of that production is largely irrelevant to run scoring.

Taylor has a 106 wRC+ for his career, if Frelick can beat that he’ll provide more value in the box.

Last year there were 205 players with at least 400 PA. Among that sample there were 79 players with an ISO+ of 95 or below. Of those 79 players, only 20 had a wRC+ higher than Taylor’s 106 mark.

Being an above average hitter with below average power is hard, Sal will have his work cut out for him. I’m excited to see if he’ll be one of the few that can pull it off.

[AKCheesehead]

2 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

 

In the vacuum of the single play of course a HR is a lot more valuable.  Off of Taylor's HR log for last season:

1-Ahead 6-3  Solo HR.  Final score 10-5(no impact from HR)

2-Ahead 4-0 8th inning 3Run HR Final Score 7-0  No Impact

3-Behind 0-8  Solo HR  Final Score 2-8  No Impact

4- Tied 1-1  3Run HR 6th inning. Final Score  4-1 Win  Large Impact.

5-Behind 2-4 top 6th 2 Run HR.  Final Score 7-6 Win.  2nd largest impact on game.

6-Ahead 2-1 top 8  Solo HR  Final Score 3-1 win.  positive impact but not in top 5 plays in game

7-Tied 0-0 Bot 5th  2Run HR  Final Score 2-0  Large Impact.

8-Down 1-2 Bot 4  3Run HR  Final Score 6-4  Large Impact #1 play in game

9-Behind 1-8 Bot 7 Solo HR Final Score 4-9  No Impact

10-Behind 5-6 Bot 6  Solo HR ties game Final score 10-9 5th largest impact on game

11-Ahead 8-4 Top 9  Solo HR Final Score 9-4  No Impact

12-Ahead 2-0 Bot 2 3Run HR Final Score 5-1  2nd largest impact on game

13-Tied 0-0 Bot 5  Solo HR  Final Score  3-4(10) not in top 5 plays of game

14&15- 2HR game  Won in 10th aided by Taylor's 2nd HR.  Largest Impact yet.

16-Behind 0-5 Bot 3 2Run HR  Final Score 2-8.  No Impact

17-Ahead 3-1 Bot 2  Solo HR   Final Score 8-12  No Impact.

16 Games 17HRs.   7 Large Impact HRs.   6 No Impact HRs.  4 Modest impact HRs.

Taylor played in 120 games.  103 Started.  7 Games largely impacted by the HRs.  And looks like about 2 Games worth via his defense over an average defender.

Even adding the 4 modest HR games to make it 13 games overall that doesn't even add up to once a week impact when you are praising those HR he hits.  If he played LF or RF you are disappointed at the lack of HRs with the rest of the batting line.  Being able to play CF defensively is what is saving him from just a waiver wire pass around.

 

I mentioned the Fantasy baseball to give an idea where I even come up with that removing HR statistic.  When I played there were 7 categories for Offense.  Finishing up the last 50pct of the draft, I would have already identified the high floor players who I could target with my picks and they would present better chance of winning  the categories because they were average or little better in categories I targeted to win in my strategy.  BA/OB/Slg  Rs HRs, RBIs and SBs.  I'd punt SBs.  Stay away from 7-9 hitters.  Win or 2nd 5 straight years.   The floor that Frelick will provide with getting on base via hits or walks compared to Taylor's occasional HRs I just feel will help the Brewers more scoring runs in run scoring situations. It's a team game he's going to allow batters behind chances to drive him in compared to the chances Taylor gives. 

Thanks for this breakdown.  One minor quibble thing I'll chime in is that those HR in wins that turn it into a lopsided win, there's value in that above "no impact" because it allows rest for the higher leverage bullpen arms that might have otherwise needed to be used in a closer game.

[endaround]

The decision is not Frelick vs Taylor.  Its Frelick Vs Taylor vs Wiemer (maybe vs Mitchell).  That is a lot more complicated.  Wiemer hit nearly as well as Frelick in August and September in AAA without having to have really high BA.

Wiemer:

• August .276/.319/.552
• September .302/.425/.476

Frelick:

• August .376/.453/.462
• September .354/.417/.554

It would be nice to see Frelick handed splits past A but milb.com still has issues.

Wiemer has more outfield experience. Wiemer is also a year older so service time issues are less of concerns and repeating AAA is a bigger hit to his value.  He also has enormous power.  Now Frelick does project as a better hitter in most systems than Wiemer but that is likely due to Wiemer's bad results from AA as he was trying recover from injury.

Going with the more prototypical corner outfielder in Wiemer may be a less risky decision.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, endaround said:

It would be nice to see Frelick handed splits past A but milb.com still has issues.

BRef has the splits available, pretty even for Sal last year…

Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS
Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

 

In the vacuum of the single play of course a HR is a lot more valuable.  Off of Taylor's HR log for last season:

1-Ahead 6-3  Solo HR.  Final score 10-5(no impact from HR)

2-Ahead 4-0 8th inning 3Run HR Final Score 7-0  No Impact

3-Behind 0-8  Solo HR  Final Score 2-8  No Impact

4- Tied 1-1  3Run HR 6th inning. Final Score  4-1 Win  Large Impact.

5-Behind 2-4 top 6th 2 Run HR.  Final Score 7-6 Win.  2nd largest impact on game.

6-Ahead 2-1 top 8  Solo HR  Final Score 3-1 win.  positive impact but not in top 5 plays in game

7-Tied 0-0 Bot 5th  2Run HR  Final Score 2-0  Large Impact.

8-Down 1-2 Bot 4  3Run HR  Final Score 6-4  Large Impact #1 play in game

9-Behind 1-8 Bot 7 Solo HR Final Score 4-9  No Impact

10-Behind 5-6 Bot 6  Solo HR ties game Final score 10-9 5th largest impact on game

11-Ahead 8-4 Top 9  Solo HR Final Score 9-4  No Impact

12-Ahead 2-0 Bot 2 3Run HR Final Score 5-1  2nd largest impact on game

13-Tied 0-0 Bot 5  Solo HR  Final Score  3-4(10) not in top 5 plays of game

14&15- 2HR game  Won in 10th aided by Taylor's 2nd HR.  Largest Impact yet.

16-Behind 0-5 Bot 3 2Run HR  Final Score 2-8.  No Impact

17-Ahead 3-1 Bot 2  Solo HR   Final Score 8-12  No Impact.

16 Games 17HRs.   7 Large Impact HRs.   6 No Impact HRs.  4 Modest impact HRs.

Taylor played in 120 games.  103 Started.  7 Games largely impacted by the HRs.  And looks like about 2 Games worth via his defense over an average defender.

Even adding the 4 modest HR games to make it 13 games overall that doesn't even add up to once a week impact when you are praising those HR he hits.  If he played LF or RF you are disappointed at the lack of HRs with the rest of the batting line.  Being able to play CF defensively is what is saving him from just a waiver wire pass around.

 

I mentioned the Fantasy baseball to give an idea where I even come up with that removing HR statistic.  When I played there were 7 categories for Offense.  Finishing up the last 50pct of the draft, I would have already identified the high floor players who I could target with my picks and they would present better chance of winning  the categories because they were average or little better in categories I targeted to win in my strategy.  BA/OB/Slg  Rs HRs, RBIs and SBs.  I'd punt SBs.  Stay away from 7-9 hitters.  Win or 2nd 5 straight years.   The floor that Frelick will provide with getting on base via hits or walks compared to Taylor's occasional HRs I just feel will help the Brewers more scoring runs in run scoring situations. It's a team game he's going to allow batters behind chances to drive him in compared to the chances Taylor gives. 

I want to applaud you for the time it took to do that analysis.

However, looking at the context of each HR is worse than evaluating a hitter's ability by their RBIs. There are already good ways to look at a hitter's production. Perhaps some day you will provide a better way of doing it, but it is not this day.