Brian Anderson to Brewers!!!! Yes!!!

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

To put it bluntly, at some point, Frelick and/or Wiemer are going to force their way to the majors at some point in 2023 - very likely by the All-Star break, if not sooner. The question, therefore, is how to maximize the team's potential down the road?

Do we just keep Winker on the bench, and see him walk as a free agent with no compensation, or do we try and get something for him that could help the team? The latter option makes a lot more sense to me.

Now, Anderson could stick around, leading to Brousseau's DFA, simply because Anderson does have the positional versatility Winker lacks.

But if Frelick/Wiemer are tearing the cover off the ball, yeah, I'd move Winker.

Why would Winker be the one who gets moved in that scenario? He’s a DH/5th OF. Why wouldn’t you move Tyrone instead considering he’s the 3rd/4th OF and the direct competition for playing time for the rookies. 

[clancyphile]

19 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Why would Winker be the one who gets moved in that scenario? He’s a DH/5th OF. Why wouldn’t you move Tyrone instead considering he’s the 3rd/4th OF and the direct competition for playing time for the rookies. 

Because I'd consider an OF group of Frelick-Wiemer-Mitchell-Taylor-Yelich to be stronger than Frelick-Wiemer-Mitchell-Winker-Yelich.

In the first group, the Crew has Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer starting in the OF, Taylor as the 4th OF, and Yelich as 5th OF/DH.

The second option is Yelich-Mitchell-Wiemer, with Frelick as 4th OF and Winker as 5th OF/DH.

I think the first group works better, both in terms of balance and in terms of defense.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

Because I'd consider an OF group of Frelick-Wiemer-Mitchell-Taylor-Yelich to be stronger than Frelick-Wiemer-Mitchell-Winker-Yelich.

In the first group, the Crew has Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer starting in the OF, Taylor as the 4th OF, and Yelich as 5th OF/DH.

The second option is Yelich-Mitchell-Wiemer, with Frelick as 4th OF and Winker as 5th OF/DH.

I think the first group works better, both in terms of balance and in terms of defense.

How good do you think the rookies will be for them to all be starting? Like if one of them is good enough to start next year it will be a success. 3 of them good enough to start is incredibly unlikely and even then. Winker’s bat will likely be much better than what any of them will offer so trading him makes our offense worse. 

[clancyphile]

7 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

How good do you think the rookies will be for them to all be starting? Like if one of them is good enough to start next year it will be a success. 3 of them good enough to start is incredibly unlikely and even then. Winker’s bat will likely be much better than what any of them will offer so trading him makes our offense worse. 

Baseball Prospectus had Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer all in their Top 100 (plus Jackson Chourio). Frelick and Wiemer were in Baseball America's Top 100 before 2022 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/affiliate.cgi?id=MIL&year=2022). And Mitchell didn't do too shabby in his 2022 cup of coffee.

If Winker does well, and Frelick and Wiemer struggle, keep the latter two in AAA. But if they both do well, then of the outfielders on the Brewers 26-man, Winker probably is the best to move, because then Yelich can DH, and the Crew would have three lefties and two righties, all of those players would provide superb defense.

I'm just saying if Frelick and Wiemer force the issue (and given their Top 100 status, that is a strong possibility), then the Brewers need to figure out how to get them to the MLB team. 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Baseball Prospectus had Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer all in their Top 100 (plus Jackson Chourio). Frelick and Wiemer were in Baseball America's Top 100 before 2022 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/affiliate.cgi?id=MIL&year=2022). And Mitchell didn't do too shabby in his 2022 cup of coffee.

If Winker does well, and Frelick and Wiemer struggle, keep the latter two in AAA. But if they both do well, then of the outfielders on the Brewers 26-man, Winker probably is the best to move, because then Yelich can DH, and the Crew would have three lefties and two righties, all of those players would provide superb defense.

I'm just saying if Frelick and Wiemer force the issue (and given their Top 100 status, that is a strong possibility), then the Brewers need to figure out how to get them to the MLB team. 

Mitchell had a .548 BABIP and an xwOBA of .266 (which he overperformed by 99 points). It’s reading a lot into small sample noise to say he didn’t do too shabby.
 

Winker’s xwOBA last year was .345 which was 34th in the MLB among qualified hitters and second among Brewers hitters. He woefully underperformed that number but he’s moving from Seattle (one of the least friendly parks in baseball) to Milwaukee (a neutral hitter/pitcher friendly parks). 
 

Of the 41 rookies with 250 PA last year only 2 had a better xwOBA than Winker. The likelihood of any of our rookies being better hitters than Winker next year is incredibly low. The likelihood of all of them being better hitters than Winker is basically nonexistent. 

[Jake McKibbin]

6 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Baseball Prospectus had Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer all in their Top 100 (plus Jackson Chourio). Frelick and Wiemer were in Baseball America's Top 100 before 2022 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/affiliate.cgi?id=MIL&year=2022). And Mitchell didn't do too shabby in his 2022 cup of coffee.

If Winker does well, and Frelick and Wiemer struggle, keep the latter two in AAA. But if they both do well, then of the outfielders on the Brewers 26-man, Winker probably is the best to move, because then Yelich can DH, and the Crew would have three lefties and two righties, all of those players would provide superb defense.

I'm just saying if Frelick and Wiemer force the issue (and given their Top 100 status, that is a strong possibility), then the Brewers need to figure out how to get them to the MLB team. 

I think that's fair, I'd actually agree with you more if the DH wasn't in the National league

I think in that situation the brewers may listen to offers, maybe more so if there are a couple of early season injuries. I'd say the likelihood isn't great, albeit possible, but also Yelich is okay enough in left field, his jump is awful but his speed can still kinda cover that a bit

And I can also see if Frelick and Weimer are mashing at this level, that maybe Garrett Mitchell is optioned to work on a few things as I'm unsure if his success is as sustainable as it would be with those two guys (then again, he would be the best CF on the roster)

[monty57]

22 hours ago, sveumrules said:

 

Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team.

His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc.

Considering all those guys (minus Jurickson) are making $13M+ and they all (minus Conforto) needed hundreds more PAs to accrue their WAR, I’d say TT is a perfectly cromulent starting option at less than $1M.

I was always a proponent of giving Taylor a chance to start, but when given that chance last year he blew it. Maybe it was just bad timing/small sample, but he appears to be better as a 4th OF than as a full-time guy.

He plays decent defense across the field, and as he's right-handed while Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick and Winker are all left-handed. I'm not saying let him go, as I think he'll play a big role on the '23 team. I'm just saying that I don't think his numbers will hold up if he gets 600 PAs a season.

I think that Frelick would be a better full-time player in '23 than Taylor, so I think that if Frelick is going to start the season in AAA, it's for service time reasons.

[Jake McKibbin]

2 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I was always a proponent of giving Taylor a chance to start, but when given that chance last year he blew it. Maybe it was just bad timing/small sample, but he appears to be better as a 4th OF than as a full-time guy.

He plays decent defense across the field, and as he's right-handed while Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick and Winker are all left-handed. I'm not saying let him go, as I think he'll play a big role on the '23 team. I'm just saying that I don't think his numbers will hold up if he gets 600 PAs a season.

I think that Frelick would be a better full-time player in '23 than Taylor, so I think that if Frelick is going to start the season in AAA, it's for service time reasons.

I think thats maybe a bit harsh on Tyrone, given he did have 2.1 fWAR and 2.1bWAR last year, and isn't anyone above 2 WAR usually a serviceable everyday player in the majors?

He had above average defense in CF, popped 17 homers in 405 plate appearances, and all in all a lot of playoff teams would have loved to have him as a 3rd Outfielder. He's a good player if not a particularly high ceiling above what he's produced so far. He may not be exciting per se, but he's a quality outfielder and Brewers were lucky to have him last year

[monty57]

I went back and re-read the "Sal Frelick" thread from last year to revisit how everyone was feeling at the time. All-in-all, not a bad read and worth re-visiting.

Hindsight being 20/20, we can look at the timeline to further understand people's feelings in the thread:

-Cain was fired mid-June.
-Taylor had a wRC+ of 58 in June, but I don't know what was before/after Cain's release.
-He only played in 9 games in July (injury??) when he had a 130 wRC+
-When he came back full-time in August only hit for a paltry 67 wRC+ at which time people really started calling for one of the prospects to be called up. Many of the posts were something like "Taylor hits a HR every week or two to keep his numbers up." It wasn't so much that people hated Taylor, but more that they wanted a prospect (assumed to be Frelick) and his high-OBP skills brought up.
-Once he went back to more of a 4th OF role in Sept/Oct, he had a 151 wRC+

So maybe I was harsh on him, but when given the starting job he got hurt and then didn't play well. That's probably not overly predictive, but when he was starting most posters here wanted him replaced. I hope the best for him, as he'll probably be the Brewers opening day RF, but I expect we'll see a lot of calls for him to be replaced in the first couple of months of the season.

He plays decent defense at all three OF positions. For his career, he has been a slightly above average hitter (106 wRC+), which translates to a decent hitter for a CF, but a below-average corner OF. He is a low OBP (career .303, .286 last year with extended playing time), higher SLG (.452 career, .442 last year) guy.

Last year we had a roster filled with low OBP / high SLG guys, and Taylor fit right into that mold. We'll see how our moves have changed things.

Looking at all this hasn't changed my thought that without regard to service time, I would absolutely want Frelick and his high OBP style as a starter over Taylor. I hope that Taylor does well and helps the team for his time as a starter, but I expect him to be replaced by a prospect when the service time issues are cleared up.

[brewcrewdue80]

Take away Taylor's HR PAs and he's producing a  .188 BA .257OB .272 Slg  529OPS

Frelick less his HRs-  .316 BA  .389 OB .399 SLG  715 OPS 

Keep in mind Taylor had 17HRs in 373 ABs  1 in 21.94

Frelick had 11 in 492.    1 in 44.72  So about half the time Comparable would be 8-9 HRs

 

Feeling pretty certain Brewers offense scores quite a lot more runs with Frelick than sticking with Taylor for a few more HRs. 

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, monty57 said:

I was always a proponent of giving Taylor a chance to start, but when given that chance last year he blew it. Maybe it was just bad timing/small sample, but he appears to be better as a 4th OF than as a full-time guy.

He plays decent defense across the field, and as he's right-handed while Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick and Winker are all left-handed. I'm not saying let him go, as I think he'll play a big role on the '23 team. I'm just saying that I don't think his numbers will hold up if he gets 600 PAs a season.

I think that Frelick would be a better full-time player in '23 than Taylor, so I think that if Frelick is going to start the season in AAA, it's for service time reasons.

I think it's an exaggeration to say he blew it. He was basically average. This isn't Lake Wobegon, all of our children can't be above average.

If Frelick is up on O.D., I figured Mitchell, Frelick, and Taylor would all get 450-500 PA.

[Jake McKibbin]

9 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Take away Taylor's HR PAs and he's producing a  .188 BA .257OB .272 Slg  529OPS

Frelick less his HRs-  .316 BA  .389 OB .399 SLG  715 OPS 

Keep in mind Taylor had 17HRs in 373 ABs  1 in 21.94

Frelick had 11 in 492.    1 in 44.72  So about half the time Comparable would be 8-9 HRs

 

Feeling pretty certain Brewers offense scores quite a lot more runs with Frelick than sticking with Taylor for a few more HRs. 

So while I understand this post, and I'm not arguing about production as I feel Frelick may be a better offensive producer

 

However taking away HR's is in no way a viable way to judge them, that's like saying "take away the singles and compare them". Taylor shouldn't be penalised for being a better slugger

Frelick also did it not against major league pitching but against AAA pitchers

I do think he has the hit tool to perform maybe similarly to Luis Arraez, but this way of comparing the two just doesn't feel all that accurate to me

[Robocaller]

34 minutes ago, jakedood said:

So while I understand this post, and I'm not arguing about production as I feel Frelick may be a better offensive producer

 

However taking away HR's is in no way a viable way to judge them, that's like saying "take away the singles and compare them". Taylor shouldn't be penalised for being a better slugger

Frelick also did it not against major league pitching but against AAA pitchers

I do think he has the hit tool to perform maybe similarly to Luis Arraez, but this way of comparing the two just doesn't feel all that accurate to me

Aaron Judge only batted .226 if you take away his HRs.

 

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Take away Taylor's HR PAs and he's producing a  .188 BA .257OB .272 Slg  529OPS

As others have said, this isn't a good analysis, but you seem to have neglected to remove his HRs from his ABs (although you might have removed them from his hits). He hit .197 if you remove them from both. Though doing so makes no sense.

[brewcrewdue80]

12 hours ago, Robocaller said:

As others have said, this isn't a good analysis, but you seem to have neglected to remove his HRs from his ABs (although you might have removed them from his hits). He hit .197 if you remove them from both. Though doing so makes no sense.

Wouldn't doubt I messed up. Not an easy task to do all that on the fly.  Something I used to do when I played Fantasy Baseball. Helped identify underlying numbers when trying to build a complete team pre-draft.

The comparison is that Taylor's value helps the team about 1 game a week when healthy and hurts the team basically 5 games a week when healthy.

Frelick's numbers would consistently help the team with the consistency so 4games weekly with 2-3 games not helping weekly.  

Maybe Taylor adds a game defensively over Frelick to be 2games positive weekly and 4 games not positive. Don't know how Frelick's defense will stand out next to Taylor's.  

12 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Aaron Judge only batted .226 if you take away his HRs.

 

Judge also had 5 times the Walks Taylor did. So he's also on base giving other batters the chance to advance him.  That's where Taylor loses with that 529 OPS.  He's not only unable to advance runners but he's not even being on base to be advanced by them. The combo Frelick excells in the comparison.

To put 529OPS in perspective, Cain had 465 last season and was booted off the team.   1 HR in 22ABs is fair to say 5 games to produce.  The other 4games is 529 OPS.  Taylor is treading above water. Each year older his defense is going to see a decline. Don't expect him to have a career after his team control.

[Jopal78]

There’s nothing wrong with Tyrone Taylor, but he’s just a guy. He’s not young and at 29 is likely at his ceiling. Because he can play all three spots and has a little power, he’s a nice guy to have around but not a player who is a difference maker. 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Wouldn't doubt I messed up. Not an easy task to do all that on the fly.  Something I used to do when I played Fantasy Baseball. Helped identify underlying numbers when trying to build a complete team pre-draft.

The comparison is that Taylor's value helps the team about 1 game a week when healthy and hurts the team basically 5 games a week when healthy.

Frelick's numbers would consistently help the team with the consistency so 4games weekly with 2-3 games bot helping weekly.  

Maybe Taylor adds a game defensively over Frelick to be 2games positive weekly and 4 games not positive. Don't know how Frelick's defense will stand out next to Taylor's.  

Judge also had 5 times the Walks Taylor did. So he's also on base giving other batters the chance to advance him.  That's where Taylor loses with that 529 OPS.  He's not only unable to advance runners but he's not even being on base to be advanced by them. The combo Frelick excells in the comparison.

To put 529OPS in perspective, Cain had 465 last season and was booted off the team.   1 HR in 22ABs is fair to say 5 games to produce.  The other 4games is 529 OPS.  Taylor is treading above water. Each year older his defense is going to see a decline. Don't expect him to have a career after his team control.

HR are also a lot more valuable than singles which you’re completely ignoring. Maybe Frelick is more valuable 4 days a week but that value won’t compare to the value Taylor has in the game he homers.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

That's where Taylor loses with that 529 OPS.  He's not only unable to advance runners but he's not even being on base to be advanced by them. The combo Frelick excells in the comparison.

To put 529OPS in perspective, Cain had 465 last season and was booted off the team.   1 HR in 22ABs is fair to say 5 games to produce.  The other 4games is 529 OPS.  Taylor is treading above water. Each year older his defense is going to see a decline. Don't expect him to have a career after his team control.

If you take out Hunter Renfroe's HR last year he had a .550 OPS. 

If you take out Rowdy Tellez's HR last year he had a .472 OPS. 

If you take out Willy Adames' HR last year he had a .513 OPS.

Here I'll just take one of the best hitters in baseball last season Pete Alonso. He was 12th in wRC+. If you take out his HR he only had a .597 OPS and he was one of the best hitters in all of baseball.

HR are significantly more valuable than any other hit in baseball. If you take them away from any hitter who is power over hit tool then they will look bad because you are taking away a crap ton of value.

[Jake McKibbin]

3 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Wouldn't doubt I messed up. Not an easy task to do all that on the fly.  Something I used to do when I played Fantasy Baseball. Helped identify underlying numbers when trying to build a complete team pre-draft.

The comparison is that Taylor's value helps the team about 1 game a week when healthy and hurts the team basically 5 games a week when healthy.

Frelick's numbers would consistently help the team with the consistency so 4games weekly with 2-3 games bot helping weekly.  

Maybe Taylor adds a game defensively over Frelick to be 2games positive weekly and 4 games not positive. Don't know how Frelick's defense will stand out next to Taylor's.  

Judge also had 5 times the Walks Taylor did. So he's also on base giving other batters the chance to advance him.  That's where Taylor loses with that 529 OPS.  He's not only unable to advance runners but he's not even being on base to be advanced by them. The combo Frelick excells in the comparison.

To put 529OPS in perspective, Cain had 465 last season and was booted off the team.   1 HR in 22ABs is fair to say 5 games to produce.  The other 4games is 529 OPS.  Taylor is treading above water. Each year older his defense is going to see a decline. Don't expect him to have a career after his team control.

On the bright side, you could be paying $19 million to Cody Bellinger, who's per basbeall savant, worse defensively in CF than Taylor was last year, and even less of a hit tool

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

If you take out Hunter Renfroe's HR last year he had a .550 OPS. 

If you take out Rowdy Tellez's HR last year he had a .472 OPS. 

If you take out Willy Adames' HR last year he had a .513 OPS.

Here I'll just take one of the best hitters in baseball last season Pete Alonso. He was 12th in wRC+. If you take out his HR he only had a .597 OPS and he was one of the best hitters in all of baseball.

HR are significantly more valuable than any other hit in baseball. If you take them away from any hitter who is power over hit tool then they will look bad because you are taking away a crap ton of value.

Renfroe 1HR in 16.34 ABs

Tellez  1HR in 15.11 ABs

Adames 1HR in 18.17 ABs  SS position top tier defense

Alonso 1HR in 14.93 ABs. 

Taylor is still a full game of ABs(Adames) and 2 games of ABs before he hits that HR. All of those players walked more frequent than Taylor.   It's Statistics and by them Taylor's HR impact is near 1 a week and the others are near 2 HRs a week.  Positional impact matters.  Tellez was worth .9 BWAR.  If he was RH he wouldn't be playing.  Milwaukee also doesn't have 4 1b that could step in and produce equal or better numbers than Taylor has.  He's only a 4th OF while in his prime now and in 2-3 years he be tossed around to rebuild teams trying to continue losing, if at all.

[wiguy94]

43 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Renfroe 1HR in 16.34 ABs

Tellez  1HR in 15.11 ABs

Adames 1HR in 18.17 ABs  SS position top tier defense

Alonso 1HR in 14.93 ABs. 

Taylor is still a full game of ABs(Adames) and 2 games of ABs before he hits that HR. All of those players walked more frequent than Taylor.   It's Statistics and by them Taylor's HR impact is near 1 a week and the others are near 2 HRs a week.  Positional impact matters.  Tellez was worth .9 BWAR.  If he was RH he wouldn't be playing.  Milwaukee also doesn't have 4 1b that could step in and produce equal or better numbers than Taylor has.  He's only a 4th OF while in his prime now and in 2-3 years he be tossed around to rebuild teams trying to continue losing, if at all.

OBP is included in OPS so not sure why them walking more matters. That’s factored into the OPS number.

 

You’re taking minor league stats for Frelick and comparing them to major league stats with Taylor and acting like Frelick will maintain an .880 OPS in the MLB with a .361 BABIP and virtually no power.

 

You know how many qualified hitters in the MLB had an .880 OPS last year? 7 and 6 of the 7 had 30+ HR. Frelick isn’t maintaining an .880 OPS in the MLB if he only hits 10 HR. 

You know how many qualified hitters had a BABIP over .361? 3.

If you think Frelick can maintain his minor league numbers you’re essentially saying you think Frelick is a top 10 hitter in all of the MLB next year and a batting champion. 

[clancyphile]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

OBP is included in OPS so not sure why them walking more matters. That’s factored into the OPS number.

 

You’re taking minor league stats for Frelick and comparing them to major league stats with Taylor and acting like Frelick will maintain an .880 OPS in the MLB with a .361 BABIP and virtually no power.

 

You know how many qualified hitters in the MLB had an .880 OPS last year? 7 and 6 of the 7 had 30+ HR. Frelick isn’t maintaining an .880 OPS in the MLB if he only hits 10 HR. 

You know how many qualified hitters had a BABIP over .361? 3.

If you think Frelick can maintain his minor league numbers you’re essentially saying you think Frelick is a top 10 hitter in all of the MLB next year and a batting champion. 

Frelick's hit tool is assessed as a 70 in MLB pipeline's Top 10 OFs, and is considered the best among OFs, so I'd say a lot of scouts see him as a potential batting champion. 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Frelick's hit tool is assessed as a 70 in MLB pipeline's Top 10 OFs, and is considered the best among OFs, so I'd say a lot of scouts see him as a potential batting champion. 

In 2021 between AA and AAA, Kwan had a 154 wRC+ with a 10.6% BB-rate, 9.1% K-rate, .199 ISO, and a .335 BABIP. In 2022 between A+ and AAA, Frelick had a 137 wRC+ with a 9.3% BB-rate, 11.2% K-rate, .148 ISO, and a .361 BABIP.

Kwan was a better version of Frelick in the minors and didn’t reach an .880 OPS as a rookie despite over performing his xwOBA by 29 points.

Not to mention the Brewers also play in one of the least ball in play friendly parks in the MLB because of its small dimensions. In statcast’s 3-year rolling park factors, AmFam is 6% below average in singles, 8% below average in doubles, and 4% below average in triples. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

In 2021 between AA and AAA, Kwan had a 154 wRC+ with a 10.6% BB-rate, 9.1% K-rate, .199 ISO, and a .335 BABIP. In 2022 between A+ and AAA, Frelick had a 137 wRC+ with a 9.3% BB-rate, 11.2% K-rate, .148 ISO, and a .361 BABIP.

Kwan was a better version of Frelick in the minors and didn’t reach an .880 OPS as a rookie despite over performing his xwOBA by 29 points.

Not to mention the Brewers also play in one of the least ball in play friendly parks in the MLB because of its small dimensions. In statcast’s 3-year rolling park factors, AmFam is 6% below average in singles, 8% below average in doubles, and 4% below average in triples. 

Arraez won the batting title in the AL last year and didn’t even end the season with an .800 OPS. 

[Robocaller]

16 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

HR are also a lot more valuable than singles which you’re completely ignoring. Maybe Frelick is more valuable 4 days a week but that value won’t compare to the value Taylor has in the game he homers.

I've come to think he means valuable in the fantasy baseball context, which I think has modest to no relevance to real world baseball value.