Brian Anderson to Brewers!!!! Yes!!!

[sveumrules]

27 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

In other words they still kinda stink vs lefties.

Not necessarily. Here are splits vs LHP since 2020…

Contreras (155 PA | 158 wRC+), Brosseau (261 PA | 128 wRC+), Urias (307 PA | 111 wRC+), Adames (389 PA | 110 wRC+), Tyrone (239 PA | 109 wRC+) and Yelich (401 PA | 104 wRC+) are six guys on the right side of 100.

Anderson was at 107 wRC+ vs LHP over 358 PAs from 2018-20, so he could bounce back to the right side of 100.

Frelick and Turang have also had pretty even splits the last couple years, so might not be complete liabilities vs LHP…

Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS
Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS

Frelick 21 vs RHP: 136 PA | 840 OPS
Frelick 21 vs LHP: 33 PA | 1054 OPS

Turang 22 vs RHP: 399 PA | 767 OPS
Turang 22 vs LHP: 204 PA | 781 OPS

Turang 21 vs RHP: 368 PA | 711 OPS
Turang 21 vs LHP: 128 PA | 705 OPS

The other thing to consider when looking at the 2022 results vs LHP is that while losing Renfroe (134 wRC+ | +5.7 wRAA) hurts, losing Cain (-17 wRC+ | -6.8 wRAA), Wong (37 wRC+ | -6.9 wRAA) and hopefully Hiura (75 wRC+ | -2.9 wRAA) should help a lot more.

[Jake McKibbin]

Looking at his Baseball reference its interesting to note a couple of changes from 2018/19 vs 21/22

 

His SO% jumped from ~20% to 26%

He hits a LOT of balls up the centre

2019 in terms of his ISO sticks out like a sore thumb, and I dont think he's that guy. Although I could be wrong as he did maintain it in 2020 (depends how much that counts) pre injuries - 120 ISO vs 207 ISO

 

It seems like even in 2018 part of his offensive value was his ability to get On Base, without a ton of power, and its whether the Brewers can help him reduce SO rate (they've done very well with this recently)

And what caused his defensive numbers to drop so sharply? 

Be interesting to see how he does in a more hitter friendly park, and given almost every hitter seems to suck when they go to Miami, its possible there's a little something to unlock

 

[Jopal78]

I wonder how many other players the Brewers have offers on they’re just content to wait them out. 
 

As a “buy low” player, they have nothing to lose. He bounces back and it works out, or he’s washed and they DFA him at some point.

At the very least, the less they have to count on Singleton, Toro, Hiura, Owen Miller and the AAA OFer from the Yankees the better

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

At worst he doesn't make it out of Spring Training. At best, the Brewers have a solid above-average starting 3B, enabling Urias to jump over to 2B, where he should be able to come close to replicating Wong's numbers. If he's somewhere in the middle, he's a versatile platoon player who grades out pretty well defensively at 3B and in the corner OF, and should be able to provide some of the right-handed power that they lost with Renfroe.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

$5.5 million max deal for a solid bounceback candidate with a decent track record at the position of need. I would think that the chance of Anderson bouncing back at 29 years old is substantially higher than Mike Moustakas bouncing back at 34 ... even if Moose bounced a little bit higher at his peak. 

[MVP2110]

I don't love giving Anderson 3.5 guarenteed. Seems like he'll have a guarenteed roster spot and PT with that deal where as I was hoping he'd have to earn it. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, MVP2110 said:

I don't love giving Anderson 3.5 guarenteed. Seems like he'll have a guarenteed roster spot and PT with that deal where as I was hoping he'd have to earn it. 

Yes, it is the type of deal that likely guarantees him a roster spot. But it isn't the type of deal that is going to keep him from being DFA'd if he sucks. It's actually pretty similar to what they gave Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko a few years ago. Pretty low risk.

[MoreTrife]

Do free agents hand over physicals? Do they work out? Or do Brewers just take a gamble that's he's healthy now?

[monty57]

Opening day is still a ways away, but this move seems to point to Turang starting the year at AAA to save a year's service time. He's our "replacement in waiting" for SS when Adames is gone, so it isn't a bad idea to preserve an extra year at the position where he provides the most value.

3B/OF isn't your typical utility guy, so Anderson doesn't really fit that role. I guess that he will be the opening day 3B, with Urias moving to 2B where he's been a better fielder and should be the most valuable.

The OF flexibility is nice, in that Counsell likes to pinch-hit, so there will be situations where Anderson will shift to OF after someone gets pinch-hit for. Plus, it allows them to only have four OF (Yelich, Frelick, Mitchell, Taylor) on the roster.

Urias came up as a 2B, and is below-average defensively at 3B. Turang is a natural SS who hasn't played much 3B. It will be nice to have an actual third baseman playing 3B on a regular basis. I just hope that his bat bounces back. 

It's a $3.5M signing, so you can't expect too much "needle moving," but this move makes sense. On a one-year deal, there isn't much risk.

[monty57]

Just now, MoreTrife said:

Do free agents hand over physicals? Do they work out? Or do Brewers just take a gamble that's he's healthy now?

I would refer you to Exhibit A: Carlos Correa.

He will have a physical, but on a one-year / $3.5M (plus incentives) deal, it won't be looked at quite as closely as Correa's.

[brewerfan82]

Looking at 3 year splits, and Steamer's overall projections for 2023, we have some pretty nice lineup/roster options with the current guys in house:

That's a lot of 100+ wRC+'s all over the board, against both righties and lefties.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

9 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Meh.

Not bad, not great 

my thoughts exactly, Seems like one of those signings that could end up as a little-heralded-at-the-time-but-valuable, but lately I feel conditioned to expect anyone we sign to completely tank.

[sveumrules]

43 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Urias came up as a 2B, and is below-average defensively at 3B.

Urias defensive metrics in 1,191 innings at 3B are pretty neutral over his career, +10 DRS | -0.1 UZR | -3 OAA.

I agree he profiles better at 2B, but the metrics haven’t seen much of a difference in his 807 innings at the keystone with +3 DRS | +1.1 UZR | +6 OAA.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

57 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Urias defensive metrics in 1,191 innings at 3B are pretty neutral over his career, +10 DRS | -0.1 UZR | -3 OAA.

I agree he profiles better at 2B, but the metrics haven’t seen much of a difference in his 807 innings at the keystone with +3 DRS | +1.1 UZR | +6 OAA.

I think it's more of an "eye test" assessment. Urias does not have the typical body type that most fans think of when they picture their ideal 3B. But he's actually been fine there both defensively and on the offensive side. The nice thing about him is that he also has the ability to play an above-average 2B, and he's probably more of a sure thing as a lineup regular than simply handing a starting job to Turang out of Spring Training.

[Outlander]

As it stands it is Caratini/Brosseau/Hiura and one of Toro/Miller/Frelick/Turang/Perkins as the last guy. Will be interesting to see if they still end up trading Hiura.  Urias can certainly be the backup SS and starting 2B so no need for Turang to sit on the bench. 

[StearnsFTW]

10 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Not necessarily. Here are splits vs LHP since 2020…

Contreras (155 PA | 158 wRC+), Brosseau (261 PA | 128 wRC+), Urias (307 PA | 111 wRC+), Adames (389 PA | 110 wRC+), Tyrone (239 PA | 109 wRC+) and Yelich (401 PA | 104 wRC+) are six guys on the right side of 100.

Anderson was at 107 wRC+ vs LHP over 358 PAs from 2018-20, so he could bounce back to the right side of 100.

Frelick and Turang have also had pretty even splits the last couple years, so might not be complete liabilities vs LHP…

Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS
Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS

Frelick 21 vs RHP: 136 PA | 840 OPS
Frelick 21 vs LHP: 33 PA | 1054 OPS

Turang 22 vs RHP: 399 PA | 767 OPS
Turang 22 vs LHP: 204 PA | 781 OPS

Turang 21 vs RHP: 368 PA | 711 OPS
Turang 21 vs LHP: 128 PA | 705 OPS

The other thing to consider when looking at the 2022 results vs LHP is that while losing Renfroe (134 wRC+ | +5.7 wRAA) hurts, losing Cain (-17 wRC+ | -6.8 wRAA), Wong (37 wRC+ | -6.9 wRAA) and hopefully Hiura (75 wRC+ | -2.9 wRAA) should help a lot more.

I knew if I was wrong you'd connect me.  Thanks for the data as usual.

 

[sveumrules]

Just now, StearnsFTW said:

I knew if I was wrong you'd connect me.  Thanks for the data as usual.

I wouldn’t necessarily say wrong, just that there are some reasons (beyond blind optimism) to believe they might not stink as bad vs LHP as they did last year (92 wRC+).

The other thing to keep in mind is splits vs LHP probably comp best by sample size with relief pitcher workloads & we know how volatile relievers are year over year.

[StearnsFTW]

Who's getting DFA'd to make room for him?

 

I know there are options, just wondering what the consensus is.

 

Alexander?  Please?

 

Singleton seems like the other logical candidate.

 

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Who's getting DFA'd to make room for him?

 

I know there are options, just wondering what the consensus is.

 

Alexander?  Please?

 

Singleton seems like the other logical candidate.

 

 

The guy in the video on the home page here speculated it would be Singleton. Personally, if I were Tyson Miller, I'd feel nervous. With Anderson's ability to play OF, Blake Perkins's days on the 40-man could potentially be numbered as well. Alexander is also a solid choice, although his ability to swing between starting and relieving might mak then see him as a solid depth candidate.

[TURBO]

11 hours ago, sveumrules said:

vs RHP

Ca: Contreras
1B: Rowdy
2B: Turang
SS: Adames
3B: Urias
LF: Yelich
CF: Frelick
RF: Mitchell
DH: Winker

vs LHP

Ca: Caratini
1B: Brosseau
2B: Urias
SS: Adames
3B: Anderson
LF: Yelich
CF: Frelick
RF: Taylor
DH: Contreras 

So Anderson, who hits righties better will be starting against lefties?  It's Keston Hiura all over again.

*sigh*

[Jake McKibbin]

8 minutes ago, TURBO said:

So Anderson, who hits righties better will be starting against lefties?  It's Keston Hiura all over again.

*sigh*

This isnt a fair comparison at all

Brian Anderson hit 215 vs Righties, and 247 vs Lefties last year for instance in 73 AB's

In 21 he hit 158 vs lefties, but in only 57 AB's

in 20 he hit 286 vs Lefties in 56 AB's, and 243 vs Righties

Given injuries in 21 & 22, I'd say go with the average data which suggests he's 67% more likely to be better vs lefties (although realistically its all such small samples) and he's still going to be more effective than Keston who literally cant hit them at all

He's still a career 238 average vs lefties which isnt too bad compared to what Kestdaddy put up. Might not be ideal but lets not get too down about the thought

Turang has also shown pretty even splits, but basically the Brewers have signed a vet option who could be a bounceback candidate injuries permitting

 

[wildcat2237]

At 1 year and $3.5 million I find it hard to hate this deal. Three possibilities here: 

A. Anderson is horrible and the Brewers DFA him in May/June. This would result in the Brewers eating about $2million. Not ideal but not disasterous. 

B. At only age 29, Anderson has a career year. He makes $5.5 million, Brewers get a steal. Anderson gets paid next offseason. Everyone is happy. 

C. Anderson is very average and everyone goes in a new direction next year. 

There really is just nothing disastrous about a 1 year deal with a max salary of $5.5 million. 

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, TURBO said:

So Anderson, who hits righties better will be starting against lefties?  It's Keston Hiura all over again.

*sigh*

Hiura has never hit LHP well in MLB. His seasonal wRC+ vs LHP from 2019-22 were 74, 81, 13 and 75 for a career 65 wRC+ vs LHP.

Anderson hit LHP to the tune of a 107 wRC+ from 2018-20 before injuries marred his 2021/22 seasons knocking his career mark vs LHP down to a 93 wRC+.

Anderson has been almost 30% better than Hiura vs LHP over the course of their careers and at his peak was over 40% better.

There are 169 RHB with at least 300 PAs vs LHP since 2019. Keston’s 65 wRC+ ranks 168th with only defensive minded catcher Max Stassi lower.

There pretty much is never a Keston Hiura all over again, dude is one of a kind in multiple ways.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

29 minutes ago, TURBO said:

So Anderson, who hits righties better will be starting against lefties?  It's Keston Hiura all over again.

*sigh*

To be fair, while there are reverse splits, Anderson is still loads better against lefties than Keston.

[DR28]

I just love this deal, one of the guys I wanted for 3B! I love our infield now.

Tellez - 1B

Urias - 2B

Adames - SS

Anderson - 3B

Anderson is a good player, he was hurt in 21 and 22... When healthy, I know he's the player he was 18-20... Decent power, gets on base, plays good D.

 

Yelich

Adames

Winker

Contreras

Tellez

Anderson

 Urias

Taylor

Mitchell

I really like that lineup as well!

 

Now go get one of Chafin, Rosenthal, Reyes for the bullpen and this team is set and loaded!