Windows

[RobDeer 45]

I was just reading a little piece on Jackson Chourio and it got me thinking, which is dangerous.  Will our current pitching time up with the upcoming minor league talent we have?  Are we in two separate windows or can they be merged in to one window?  I had the thought that maybe we should be trading away our talented arms for prospects that will match the timing of guys like Chourio coming up.  I hate that idea and the likely hood of nailing the prospects we get in return is always low, but we sure would get a heck of a return.  Of course this means bad baseball for the coming years but those times can be pretty exciting as young guys start coming up.  I'm sure this is being discussed elsewhere so maybe no need for a new thread, but was curious what the general thought is on the board.

[wallus]

It all depends on if we hit on the trades of Burnes, Woodruff and Adames. If we let them go for nothing, it will be really difficult to not be bad.

[brewmann04]

lets just hope we get a haul for Corbin

[wiguy94]

It’s two separate windows for the Burnes/Woodruff duo unless our rookies start really hot this year. 
 

It’s one of the reasons I could have understood trading Burnes this offseason to try and time the windows better. 

[MrTPlush]

Honestly, I don’t think there is any possible way to avoid a rebuild. The only way is if they extend Woodruff…without that our pitching is about to take the hit of the century after the year.

Our minor league system is a lot of offense and very little pitching. Peralta is good, but not a big time workhorse. Unless Ashby becomes a TOR I just don’t think the pitching is there. We better hope we can get some really promising pitchers from trading Adames/Burnes/Woodruff. We will need it.

That being said we have a lot of promising prospects and some young players. Plus massive trade chips to help get more guys in fold. Not to mention all these guys leaving means we will have payroll credibility when needed. I am guessing we will be back in the mix as a promising team after a max 2-3 hiatus.

 

 

[SF70]

7 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Honestly, I don’t think there is any possible way to avoid a rebuild. The only way is if they extend Woodruff…without that our pitching is about to take the hit of the century after the year.

Our minor league system is a lot of offense and very little pitching. Peralta is good, but not a big time workhorse. Unless Ashby becomes a TOR I just don’t think the pitching is there. We better hope we can get some really promising pitchers from trading Adames/Burnes/Woodruff. We will need it.

That being said we have a lot of promising prospects and some young players. Plus massive trade chips to help get more guys in fold. Not to mention all these guys leaving means we will have payroll credibility when needed. I am guessing we will be back in the mix as a promising team after a max 2-3 hiatus.

 

 

Outside of Ashby & Small, who both regressed to varying degrees, the SP in the organization as a whole made enormous progress, especially at Wisconsin, Carolina and in Arizona.

The team has 2 full development years ahead to add to Peralta, Ashby, Gasser and possibly Small. 

With the team deciding to hold the big 3 this offseason, the team will be good enough in all likelihood to be buyers at the trade-deadline and not sellers, so that pushes the decision to trade-off 1 or more of the big 3 to next offseason.

And since the offseason teams have the option to hoard, and go the FA route to improve, that makes getting enough prospect capital returned, especially big-league ready prospects difficult to achieve.

The team could be cutting payroll this season because they want the potential to arby all for another all-in next season with the team expecting to QO the big 3 for the draft-picks.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Outside of Ashby & Small, who both regressed to varying degrees, the SP in the organization as a whole made enormous progress, especially at Wisconsin, Carolina and in Arizona.

The team has 2 full development years ahead to add to Peralta, Ashby, Gasser and possibly Small. 

With the team deciding to hold the big 3 this offseason, the team will be good enough in all likelihood to be buyers at the trade-deadline and not sellers, so that pushes the decision to trade-off 1 or more of the big 3 to next offseason.

And since the offseason teams have the option to hoard, and go the FA route to improve, that makes getting enough prospect capital returned, especially big-league ready prospects difficult to achieve.

The team could be cutting payroll this season because they want the potential to arby all for another all-in next season with the team expecting to QO the big 3 for the draft-picks.

That is kinda my point. The minor leagues aren't exactly rich with talent, especially talent even close to helping the MLB squad. Those guys in Wisconsin etc. could be darn near a half decade from being notable big league contributors. Ashby and Small are the guys we would need to be impressing to avoid some kind of rebuild. 

I doubt they would do this. Considering the chance of winning a world series in any given year is like 4% that would surely become one of the worst decisions in Brewers history to lose out on trading them. I could see it if it was like Fielder in 2011 and we only had one of these guys set to hit FA...but a small market trotting out 3 All Star level guys to give QOs to after the season would be pretty wild. 

[SF70]

6 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

That is kinda my point. The minor leagues aren't exactly rich with talent, especially talent even close to helping the MLB squad. Those guys in Wisconsin etc. could be darn near a half decade from being notable big league contributors. Ashby and Small are the guys we would need to be impressing to avoid some kind of rebuild. 

I doubt they would do this. Considering the chance of winning a world series in any given year is like 4% that would surely become one of the worst decisions in Brewers history to lose out on trading them. I could see it if it was like Fielder in 2011 and we only had one of these guys set to hit FA...but a small market trotting out 3 All Star level guys to give QOs to after the season would be pretty wild. 

While it might take 4-5 years for the young prospect starters to completely develop as big-league starters, they should have some ready to face big-league hitters at least out of the bullpen late in the ‘24 season. 

Im expecting Peralta, Ashby & Gasser to all be mid-rotation starters or better by the ‘25 season so in my mind they can sign a veteran FA #4 starter and let the rookies battle it out for the 5th & 6th starters. 

Adding a big-league ready starter or two with trades of Burnes and Woodruff next offseason doesn’t help next year’s rotation.

[umphrey]

Our 23-24 window is still so good that we would be fools to throw it away, although if they need to punt on 24 to trade away some pitchers while they still have some years of control left that is reasonable. Our window 3 years from now, it looks somewhat promising, but it’s really based around 1 elite prospect and his 300 PAs at age 18 and a number of good but not elite OF prospects. Honestly I’m more inclined to trade Chourio than Burnes this year if I have to choose but we should wait and see how things play out. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Honestly, I don’t think there is any possible way to avoid a rebuild. The only way is if they extend Woodruff…without that our pitching is about to take the hit of the century after the year.

I think it's entirely possible to avoid a rebuild but given the Brewers' situation, it's highly likely they cannot maintain peak competitiveness every season (ie. they'll need "retool" seasons). For example, say they extend Woodruff but hit roadblocks with Adames and Burnes this offseason. If they make the right moves, it will be hard to field a 90+ win team in 2024 but they could be back in the mix in 2025, for sure.

Full-scale rebuilds are often a bad idea, particularly in a baseball environment where so many teams are trying it at once. It dilutes the potential of getting a top 1-2 draft pick multiple years in a row and makes it harder to trade away assets to competitive teams because 1/3rd the league isn't even trying at any given moment.

[MrTPlush]

19 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think it's entirely possible to avoid a rebuild but given the Brewers' situation, it's highly likely they cannot maintain peak competitiveness every season (ie. they'll need "retool" seasons). For example, say they extend Woodruff but hit roadblocks with Adames and Burnes this offseason. If they make the right moves, it will be hard to field a 90+ win team in 2024 but they could be back in the mix in 2025, for sure.

Full-scale rebuilds are often a bad idea, particularly in a baseball environment where so many teams are trying it at once. It dilutes the potential of getting a top 1-2 draft pick multiple years in a row and makes it harder to trade away assets to competitive teams because 1/3rd the league isn't even trying at any given moment.

They kinda seem destined destined for what happened between 2008 and 2011. I think they will be able to steer clear of flirting with 90 losses. 

Depends on the pitching though. Eric Lauer is also a FA after 2024 and so is Adrian Houser. That leaves Ashby and Peralta as your lead veterans and very little behind them. If they just accept they are trying to rebuild, they may just let the team bomb like they did in 2016. 

Hopefully they find the pitching when they trade some guys. Just like the last mini rebuild a competent front office and having lots of valuable trade chips goes a long way. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

51 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

They kinda seem destined destined for what happened between 2008 and 2011. I think they will be able to steer clear of flirting with 90 losses. 

Depends on the pitching though. Eric Lauer is also a FA after 2024 and so is Adrian Houser. That leaves Ashby and Peralta as your lead veterans and very little behind them. If they just accept they are trying to rebuild, they may just let the team bomb like they did in 2016. 

Hopefully they find the pitching when they trade some guys. Just like the last mini rebuild a competent front office and having lots of valuable trade chips goes a long way. 

Yeah, their ability to compete almost entirely depends on their ability to choose the right players (pitchers, in particular) when trading off assets nearing free agency.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don’t think it is imperative to make any decisions now. The hitting window you are talking about is based a lot on improvements made last year. There is a chance that the pitching prospect quality looks a lot different this time next year, too.

[monty57]

Since Stearns was brought on board, they have pushed the "continually competitive" mantra as opposed to a build a roster for a "window of success" strategy.

Stearns tried to acquire cheap, long-term assets to build around, while more expensive guys were usually on short-term deals.  Cain and Yelich being the obvious exceptions.

Our farm took a big step forward last year, with a good portion of that success coming from the team having put a lot more into international markets over the past few seasons. Some of that talent is hitting the MLB field this season, with more (including the aforementioned Chourio) coming in the next year or so. We just added a star catcher with five years of control, and are projected to have above-average production at every offensive position, most of which are filled by guys with some team control. The one position player who will be a free agent (Adames) has a ready-made replacement in-house in Turang, who should get his feet wet this year.

There is a big wave of talent that will hit free agency at the same time. In my mind, we need to trade them prior to them hitting free agency. As much value as they'll bring back, much of which will be "MLB ready" will give us a shot at remaining "continually competitive." 

There's definitely a chance that we could take a step back for a year or two, but we cannot afford to ride them to free agency. Losing that much prospect talent from trade would set the franchise back a long ways. We're going to lose them, we can't afford to keep them, so we need to take the plan that is most likely to allow the team to remain "continually competitive."

Play through this year and probably make the playoffs while at the same time getting valuable experience for a number of our better prospects. Next offseason, trade Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames for a king's ransom in young talent, some of which will help out right away, and some of which will stock the farm. Maybe use some of the money freed up by trading those guys to sign a starting pitcher or two on short-term deals, while continuing to bring up prospects from our resurgent farm. Do early extensions to any of the good prospects who will sign them, and never get too attached to anyone. 

[SF70]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

Since Stearns was brought on board, they have pushed the "continually competitive" mantra as opposed to a build a roster for a "window of success" strategy.

Stearns tried to acquire cheap, long-term assets to build around, while more expensive guys were usually on short-term deals.  Cain and Yelich being the obvious exceptions.

Our farm took a big step forward last year, with a good portion of that success coming from the team having put a lot more into international markets over the past few seasons. Some of that talent is hitting the MLB field this season, with more (including the aforementioned Chourio) coming in the next year or so. We just added a star catcher with five years of control, and are projected to have above-average production at every offensive position, most of which are filled by guys with some team control. The one position player who will be a free agent (Adames) has a ready-made replacement in-house in Turang, who should get his feet wet this year.

There is a big wave of talent that will hit free agency at the same time. In my mind, we need to trade them prior to them hitting free agency. As much value as they'll bring back, much of which will be "MLB ready" will give us a shot at remaining "continually competitive." 

There's definitely a chance that we could take a step back for a year or two, but we cannot afford to ride them to free agency. Losing that much prospect talent from trade would set the franchise back a long ways. We're going to lose them, we can't afford to keep them, so we need to take the plan that is most likely to allow the team to remain "continually competitive."

Play through this year and probably make the playoffs while at the same time getting valuable experience for a number of our better prospects. Next offseason, trade Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames for a king's ransom in young talent, some of which will help out right away, and some of which will stock the farm. Maybe use some of the money freed up by trading those guys to sign a starting pitcher or two on short-term deals, while continuing to bring up prospects from our resurgent farm. Do early extensions to any of the good prospects who will sign them, and never get too attached to anyone. 

I agree with most of the points you bring up in your post. The one point you bring up that I disagree with is getting a “king’s ransom” for our big 3 during the offseason when teams hoard their top prospects, especially their big-league ready ones, and can go the FA route to improve their teams.

Look at this offseason so far — very few big trades made with top prospects and star players. I see that continuing the rest of this offseason, and pretty much every offseason. The trade-deadline is a different story, but this team will be, in all likelihood, smack dab in the middle of contention and more likely to buy than sell.

If it’s no “king’s ransom” with return offers then they will more likely keep them for another run and if in contention, hold the 3 for the draft-picks.

This team has upped not just their IFA talent procurement as you pointed out, but have also have done the same thing domestically. With this being the case this teams farm is as deep and strong as I’ve ever seen it. A lot of good things can happen with 2 more good drafts and 2 more years of team prospect development, especially on the pitching front.