Mancini to Cubs

[DR28]

2 yr deal.

[Robocaller]

Cubs lost Contreras, added several pieces. Anyone have a sense on if they'll be significantly better in 2023?

 

[Lathund]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Cubs lost Contreras, added several pieces. Anyone have a sense on if they'll be significantly better in 2023?

 

They'll be better, but they were still 19 games behind the Cards, 12 behind the Brewers. So they're still 3rd in the division for me. 

Their offense last year was pretty bad, and on paper it looks a lot better. But that's still mostly on paper. Steamer projects their current starting lineup (Hoerner, Swanson, Hosmer, Mancini, Happ, Bellinger, Suzuki, Morel, Barnhart in some order) to put up 105 wRC+, which is about what Brewers did as a team last year. But they have zero depth behind it (Other than probably Mervis), so an injury or two to Happ/Suzuki will be awful. Projections are generally better than only looking at recent performance straight up, but even so it's interesting that over the last 2 years that same lineup averages 100 wRC+, suggesting that the likes of Hosmer, Mancini, Bellinger rely on performances further back. Defensively they should be better, but that's improving from a fairly low level. 

More than that though, their pitching is far behind the Brewers. It's not *that* far behind the Cardinals, but then again the Cubs offense is nowhere near. So I think the Cubs will be more like 5-6 games off 2nd rather than 12, and still miss the playoffs by quite a lot. They just have too many holes, and you can't fill them all in one offseason and via free agency. For instance they spent a decent amount of money for a starter in Taillon. But that gets them a pitcher with the same career ERA- as our 6th/7th starter Houser. That kind of thing exemplifies one of the ways that teams about to exit the teardown phase of their rebuild differ from good teams; the lack of depth,. And that's what I feel will hurt the Cubs more than anything. They have a pretty strong first 20 names on the roster, but the more playing time they have to give to the next 10 or 20, the worse they'll be relative to other teams. 

[StearnsFTW]

Their pitching is putrid.

Offense definitely improved, as did the defense.

Might win 80.  I'd be shocked if they were in any kind of contention for a postseason berth.

 

[phnxcrew]

They keep adding league average offensive players while having little direction as an organization.  by the time they actually get some high upside younger players up they’ll probably claim they’re broke again 

[TURBO]

They have surely improved enough to cause us some headaches.

Are they going to jump in the standings, probably not, but they are going to win more games than last year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Cubs lost Contreras, added several pieces. Anyone have a sense on if they'll be significantly better in 2023?

Better? Yeah, probably. Over .500? Probably not. 

[wiguy94]

If this was 2018-2019 I would be much more worried about the signings the Cubs have made. I think their lineup is pretty comparable to ours with a lot of average to above average bats but not much star power. Our pitching is substantially better than theirs though. 

[jay87shot]

Comparing positions head to head, 1 point for somewhat better, 2 points for a bunch better here is what I get.

Catcher= Brewers +2

1B=Wash, I'll call Mancini there 1B and say he is more like the O's version

2B=Cubs +1, I am going to say Hoerner is their best 2B.

SS= Wash

3B= Brewers +1, I'll put Wisdom at 3rd for now.

LF= Wash, Happ was a bit better last year but Yeli has a much higher ceiling.

CF= Wash. This could be a big swing either way depending on Bellinger or our young guys.

RF=Cubs +1, This is tight but if you look at Susuki vs. Taylor (for now) Suzuki wins.

DH= Brewers +1, I expect Winker to be a bunch better than Hosmer.

Bench= Brewers +1, There isn't much after Madrigel and Morel on the Cubs side.

Rotation #1= Brewers +2(Stroman) #2= Brewers +2(Tallion), #3=Brewers +1 (Smyly), #4 Brewers +1 (Hendricks), 5/6= Brewers +1.

Bullpen= Brewers +2, Williams gets at least 1 by himself (if not 2) and I would say we have a bunch of higher potential arms.

Basically we are better everywhere other than 2nd and possibly an OF position depending on our young guys and Belly.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Two years at roughly $7 million per year is a bargain for Mancini. I would have loved to see the Brewers do that deal.

[Jopal78]

Everyone wants to dump on the Cubs, yet after June 30th last year they had the same record as the Brewers the rest of the way. 

Yes, the Brewers were a huge disappointment in ‘22, but the Cubs were projected to be trash and played .500 baseball for more than half a season. 

They've added more total talent this offseason than Milwaukee or St. Louis. Probably still won’t be able to hang with Los Angeles, New York Atlanta, and San Diego but they could potentially give St. Louis in Milwaukee run for their money in the division.

[sveumrules]

48 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

but the Cubs were projected to be trash and played .500 baseball for more than half a season. 

They've added more total talent this offseason than Milwaukee or St. Louis.

Last year PECOTA projected 72 wins for the Cubs, 538 was at 75, ZiPS was at 77,  Vegas O/U was 74.5.

The Cubs finished with 74 wins.

There is nothing unusual about a team projected in the 72-77 win range playing .500 baseball for half a season.

Sure, the Cubs have added more talent this offseason, but they won 12 fewer games than the Brewers and 19 fewer games than the Cardinals last year so they’ve got some pretty big catching up to do.

[Jake McKibbin]

I dont think Mancini Adds as much as we think, though again I'd love that veteran somewhere in the team 

But an okay Left Fielder/1B/DH doesnt really seem like a big need, and i dont think his bat is that standout the last few years with a 101 OPS + last season and not really a big bounceback candidate

I'd rather spend it on a high end reliever or wait for a mid season trade

[sveumrules]

Yeah, Cubs additions should improve the team, but outside of Dansby they have more name pop than actual production the last couple years.

(side note: I was trying to figure out if Dansby Swanson was heir to the Hungry Man dinner empire & found out his actual father’s name is…I’m not making this up…Cooter)

Smyly 21/22: 96 ERA- | 116 FIP-
Taillon 21/22: 101 ERA- | 101 FIP-
Mancini 21/22: 104 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR
Hosmer 21/22: 103 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR
Bellinger 21/22: 69 wRC+ | 0.7 WAR

[monty57]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Two years at roughly $7 million per year is a bargain for Mancini. I would have loved to see the Brewers do that deal.

He probably wanted to go somewhere he’d be guaranteed a starting role. With the Brewers, he’d probably be a platoon 1B / backup OF / DH, getting around 300 PAs. 

[JohnBriggs12]

On 1/15/2023 at 10:16 AM, StearnsFTW said:

Their pitching is putrid.

Offense definitely improved, as did the defense.

Might win 80.  I'd be shocked if they were in any kind of contention for a postseason berth.

 

They had a winning record after the All Star break last year and it was primarily their starting pitching.  Strohman, Steele, Smyly, Thompson and they added Talion.   They've got a pretty solid group without counting Hendricks

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

They had a winning record after the All Star break last year and it was primarily their starting pitching.  Strohman, Steele, Smyly, Thompson and they added Talion.   They've got a pretty solid group without counting Hendricks

Cubs starters posted a shiny 2.89 ERA post-ASB, but their 4.04 FIP indicates they were pitching unsustainably over their heads for those 70 games.

For a reference point on how extreme that is, the 2022 Dodgers starting pitchers posted thee largest 162 game ERA / FIP differential of the last 20 years at 2.75 ERA / 3.59 FIP, a 0.84 gap.

The largest ERA / FIP differential for a starting staff in any given 162 game season is typically around a 0.50 to 0.65 gap. The Cubs post-ASB performance in 2022 was a 1.15 gap.

These are the current FanGraphs starting pitcher projections for the NLC teams (with MLB rank)…

MIL: 14.8 WAR (4th)
CIN: 10.4 WAR (18th)
STL: 9.7 WAR (21st)
PIT/CHC: 9.3 WAR (22nd/23rd)
 

[Fear The Chorizo]

This Cubs roster has the feel of some of their rosters during their last rebuild while they were waiting on their impact prospects to make their way to the majors - every offseason they'd go out and sign a few veteran FAs to contracts, and then they'd look to trade them at the deadline 1 to 2 years into the contract for more prospect help.  Guys like Bellinger and Mancini are perfect candidates to trade if they have a good first few months of the season.  Even Hendricks, Madrigal, Stroman, Hoerner,  Happ, Wisdom.

They didn't take the total dumpster firesale rebuild approach this time around, so their organization plan is a bit caught in between.  Until they improve their pitching staff, they're not a postseason factor, but they do have an improved roster simply by trying to bring guys in.  Plus, at the moment they just don't have the laundry list of "can't miss" (even though several of them actually didn't amount to studs) prospects knocking on the Wrigley Field door in their system.  They've got more talent compared to a few seasons ago in the minors, but by and large it's a ways off and there are more question marks with their prospects than when MLB-ready guys like Bryant, Schwarber, etc were in their system right after getting drafted.

[StearnsFTW]

14 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

They had a winning record after the All Star break last year and it was primarily their starting pitching.  Strohman, Steele, Smyly, Thompson and they added Talion.   They've got a pretty solid group without counting Hendricks

K.  Clearly I disagree.  We'll see.

 

"Putrid" is probably a stretch.  I'll go with "they stink".

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

14 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Cubs starters posted a shiny 2.89 ERA post-ASB, but their 4.04 FIP indicates they were pitching unsustainably over their heads for those 70 games.

For a reference point on how extreme that is, the 2022 Dodgers starting pitchers posted thee largest 162 game ERA / FIP differential of the last 20 years at 2.75 ERA / 3.59 FIP, a 0.84 gap.

The largest ERA / FIP differential for a starting staff in any given 162 game season is typically around a 0.50 to 0.65 gap. The Cubs post-ASB performance in 2022 was a 1.15 gap.

These are the current FanGraphs starting pitcher projections for the NLC teams (with MLB rank)…

MIL: 14.8 WAR (4th)
CIN: 10.4 WAR (18th)
STL: 9.7 WAR (21st)
PIT/CHC: 9.3 WAR (22nd/23rd)
 

Great research. That's a massive ERA/FIP gap I was completely unaware of.

[MrTPlush]

On 1/15/2023 at 7:31 PM, jay87shot said:

LF= Wash, Happ was a bit better last year but Yeli has a much higher ceiling.

Some day I hope the Christian Yelich optimist crowd can actually celebrate being right...but at this point it is a bit troubling to think Yelich has some drastically high ceiling going into his 30s. Ian Happ has been better for 3 years now. 

 

[DR28]

On 1/16/2023 at 9:35 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Two years at roughly $7 million per year is a bargain for Mancini. I would have loved to see the Brewers do that deal.

We stretched our budget to sign Miley.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

52 minutes ago, DR28 said:

We stretched our budget to sign Miley.

I sense a bit of sarcasm here. The Brewers are far from big spenders, but ownership has certainly shown the willingness over the years to loosen the purse strings when they feel it's appropriate. Signing Wade Miley to a sub-$5 million one-year deal wouldn't stretch the budget of any team in the majors.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I sense a bit of sarcasm here. The Brewers are far from big spenders, but ownership has certainly shown the willingness over the years to loosen the purse strings when they feel it's appropriate. Signing Wade Miley to a sub-$5 million one-year deal wouldn't stretch the budget of any team in the majors.

And aren't they still about $10m under last year's payroll? I haven't checked in since all the arb guys settled.

[DR28]

16 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I sense a bit of sarcasm here. The Brewers are far from big spenders, but ownership has certainly shown the willingness over the years to loosen the purse strings when they feel it's appropriate. Signing Wade Miley to a sub-$5 million one-year deal wouldn't stretch the budget of any team in the majors.

Yes correct, sorry forgot to change that to blue.