Do you think the Brewers are working on a longer term deal with Corbin Burnes

[nate82]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

He’s not going to take a discount, so there’s really no reason for the Brewers to want to do a two year deal.  

What I have put together wouldn't be a discount.  Sure it would be a discount in '24 but it is a raise in '23.  Basically he gets the money upfront instead of next year.  So lets say the deal is 2 years $32m.  That is an increase of $6m in '23 and a decrease of $4m in '24.  So it is actually an increase of $2m from what he would earn in '23-'24.  So no discount. 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

What I have put together wouldn't be a discount.  Sure it would be a discount in '24 but it is a raise in '23.  Basically he gets the money upfront instead of next year.  So lets say the deal is 2 years $32m.  That is an increase of $6m in '23 and a decrease of $4m in '24.  So it is actually an increase of $2m from what he would earn in '23-'24.  So no discount. 

Ok, but why do the Brewers bother with it then? They absorb the potential risk of injury without gaining additional time or a financial discount.

I just don’t see it with Burnes. It’s the business of baseball. Financially, he really has zero incentive to do anything other than bide his time with the Brewers while pushing for the most money the system will pay him, then become a free agent and sell himself to the highest bidder. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Easy and Nate is on to something. Get him signed for the 2 seasons. Say 14 this year and 18-19 next season. What they gain is higher trade value next offseason trading a 40M pitcher due 18-19M instead of who knows 22-24M. 

Saving 4mil for a luxury tax team like the Mets is what saving 8mil now? Or a team up against the luxury tax it creates maybe the room they need to take on Burnes' salary in 2024.

[brewcrewdue80]

10 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

This actually leads me to an interesting question. Say Burnes got injured and needed TJ surgery this season. Would Brewers bring him back in 2024 even if he can’t pitch so they can get the comp pick when he leaves in FA in 2025 or would they non-tender him to save money?

A wealthy team that has future plans towards signing Burnes in FA is still going to offer a decent trade haul just to begin talks with him.  Also TJ is a mix 11-13mos away from baseball. If any chance he's capable to pitch Playoff games in 2024 that's what teams are trading for in the first place. 

We trade with SF for Rosenthal because the smallest chance he could pitch come playoff time.  If Burnes has TJ say in June. In next offseason they come to agreement on salary. They can trade him and that team is responsible for the salary. Even before an agreement as Renfroe is headed to Arbitration.  

The biggest loss in regards to TJ is that it is needed once September games start. Now teams would wait to deadline to see how he's doing if he'd have a chance at Playoff games.  If not then they will just wait it out. Crew offers QO he declines we come away with a draft pick.

There's 0 chance Burnes is non tendered. Same for Woodruff.  Lauer and Houser though aren't QO quality at the moment so they probably would be considered non-tender if they were to miss 2024 due to TJ.

[wiguy94]

55 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Easy and Nate is on to something. Get him signed for the 2 seasons. Say 14 this year and 18-19 next season. What they gain is higher trade value next offseason trading a 40M pitcher due 18-19M instead of who knows 22-24M. 

Saving 4mil for a luxury tax team like the Mets is what saving 8mil now? Or a team up against the luxury tax it creates maybe the room they need to take on Burnes' salary in 2024.

I just don't see a world where Burnes could ever get 22-24M in arb 3. That would just completely blow away the arb 3 record for a SP. Even something like 20M would be incredible for an arb 3 pitcher. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Can you link the record amounts to this knowledge? I cant find a list of what the records are searching. Its generally felt from memory like a slight over double from previous arb amount. Oh and the instances I imagine are small with teams settling or extending before reaching a penultimate last arb settlement. When you add the quality of player Burnes is.

I seen Ohtani got over 30mil for this season arb 3. Duo player but new record.

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

I just don't see a world where Burnes could ever get 22-24M in arb 3. That would just completely blow away the arb 3 record for a SP. Even something like 20M would be incredible for an arb 3 pitcher. 

[BlightyBrew]

Nope.  By the trade deadline this season, Burnes, Woody, and Willy will all be gone regardless of where the Brewers are at in the standings next season.

Hopefully, they go to a team that I don't hate to begin my next phase of my fandom.

[brewmann04]

1 hour ago, BlightyBrew said:

Nope.  By the trade deadline this season, Burnes, Woody, and Willy will all be gone regardless of where the Brewers are at in the standings next season.

Hopefully, they go to a team that I don't hate to begin my next phase of my fandom.

Totally agree maybe keep Woddy but Burnes is gone 

[DR28]

2 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

Nope.  By the trade deadline this season, Burnes, Woody, and Willy will all be gone regardless of where the Brewers are at in the standings next season.

Hopefully, they go to a team that I don't hate to begin my next phase of my fandom.

You really think we're gonna blow everything up if we're in 1st place??? Come on man.

You think the heat for Hader trade was bad... Just wait, if we do that again and this time trade one of the games best SPs.

[TURBO]

3 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

Nope.  By the trade deadline this season, Burnes, Woody, and Willy will all be gone regardless of where the Brewers are at in the standings next season.

Hopefully, they go to a team that I don't hate to begin my next phase of my fandom.

Huh?

You think they will trade all three at this year's deadline even if we are in 1st place or a game or two out?  Can you imagine what kind of message that sends to the fans?  You want to see mass exodus at the gates for the rest of the season, then this is one way to do it.

Dude...

I originally thought they would trade Burnes and or Adames this off season, but now it appears they are going to hang onto them until next off season.  I still can't imagine them trading off all three (Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff) in one off season, but that might be exactly what happens next year.

That is going to be a tough pill to swallow for most fans, it won't be pretty.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wonder if it'd be possible to offer Burnes a crazy extension and see if he's interested.

A one year option for 2025. $35m option, something like a $15m buyout as a safety net. Or maybe a $5m buyout with a $5m signing bonus.

Really go nuts with thinking outside the box, see if you can get one more year out of him to ease the pain of losing so many people after the 2024 season.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I wonder if it'd be possible to offer Burnes a crazy extension and see if he's interested.

A one year option for 2025. $35m option, something like a $15m buyout as a safety net. Or maybe a $5m buyout with a $5m signing bonus.

Really go nuts with thinking outside the box, see if you can get one more year out of him to ease the pain of losing so many people after the 2024 season.

Well, not sure why he would take a one year 35 million deal when he will surely make that or more per year on a multi-year deal with another team once he hits free agency.

The only way that could be a possibility is if he just wants to guarantee that big paycheck one time before he hits free agency.

I have fully accepted that Burnes will not be signing an extension, and he will be gone after the 2023 season, if not still in this off season.  I truly think that if a team came calling with an offer we couldn't refuse between now and opening day, we'd still be interested in moving him now, regardless of what has been reported in the media about him not going anywhere this year.  All this talk about moving him at the deadline is foolish.  The only way that happens is if we are so far out of it that there is no chance of the post season, and if that happens, a lot has gone wrong.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Well, not sure why he would take a one year 35 million deal when he will surely make that or more per year on a multi-year deal with another team once he hits free agency.

The only way that could be a possibility is if he just wants to guarantee that big paycheck one time before he hits free agency.

He's still two years away and either the $35m option or the $15m buyout would ensure him somewhere in the neighborhood of $50m career earnings. It's an insurance policy on the next two seasons should something go horrifically wrong for him. Given the state of modern MLB pitching and how often it breaks down, maybe that kind of one-year guarantee is appealing to Burnes.

Maybe Burnes is wildly uninterested but it's the kind of offer the Brewers should be making if they're not serious about extending him to a long-term deal.

Get creative, see what happens. That's how the Twins landed Josh Donaldson - by offering him a fifth option year when no one else would with a huge $8m buyout on the option - and how they later nabbed Carlos Correa, which then in turn allowed them to nab Carlos Correa again.

I think there's a lot of merit to throwing conventional baseball "wisdom" out the window and offering wildly different contract terms with high short-term risk.

[Jopal78]

On 1/20/2023 at 12:35 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

He's still two years away and either the $35m option or the $15m buyout would ensure him somewhere in the neighborhood of $50m career earnings. It's an insurance policy on the next two seasons should something go horrifically wrong for him. Given the state of modern MLB pitching and how often it breaks down, maybe that kind of one-year guarantee is appealing to Burnes.

Maybe Burnes is wildly uninterested but it's the kind of offer the Brewers should be making if they're not serious about extending him to a long-term deal.

Get creative, see what happens. That's how the Twins landed Josh Donaldson - by offering him a fifth option year when no one else would with a huge $8m buyout on the option - and how they later nabbed Carlos Correa, which then in turn allowed them to nab Carlos Correa again.

I think there's a lot of merit to throwing conventional baseball "wisdom" out the window and offering wildly different contract terms with high short-term risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 Josh Donaldson is actually a  example of the risk of signing a player to a big money deal. Minnesota realized they made a mistake and they dumped Donaldson in a cost cutting move for spare parts just two seasons into the contract. 

With Burnes it takes two to tango. He has no reason to sell himself short at this point. Likewise, if Milwaukee thought he was worth 250+ million dollars they would’ve  signed him already.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

 Josh Donaldson is actually a  example of the risk of signing a player to a big money deal. Minnesota realized they made a mistake and they dumped Donaldson in a cost cutting move for spare parts just two seasons into the contract. 

With Burnes it takes two to tango. He has no reason to sell himself short at this point. Likewise, if Milwaukee thought he was worth 250+ million dollars they would’ve  signed him already.

Well yeah, there is risk in any big money contract. That's kind of the point of making Burnes that deal.

And the Donaldson deal didn't hurt the Twins one bit. They got two pretty good years of production, traded him, and received more value in return than they gave up (Urshela and Sanchez outperformed Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa in 2022). Then the Twins turned around and dished Urshela for marginal value from the Angels this offseason.

Despite the Twins taking a "risk", they got two years of Donaldson and then won a trade that sent him away. That sounds like a pretty big victory for them.

[SF70]

On 1/18/2023 at 2:41 AM, brewcrewdue80 said:

A wealthy team that has future plans towards signing Burnes in FA is still going to offer a decent trade haul just to begin talks with him.  Also TJ is a mix 11-13mos away from baseball. If any chance he's capable to pitch Playoff games in 2024 that's what teams are trading for in the first place. 

We trade with SF for Rosenthal because the smallest chance he could pitch come playoff time.  If Burnes has TJ say in June. In next offseason they come to agreement on salary. They can trade him and that team is responsible for the salary. Even before an agreement as Renfroe is headed to Arbitration.  

The biggest loss in regards to TJ is that it is needed once September games start. Now teams would wait to deadline to see how he's doing if he'd have a chance at Playoff games.  If not then they will just wait it out. Crew offers QO he declines we come away with a draft pick.

There's 0 chance Burnes is non tendered. Same for Woodruff.  Lauer and Houser though aren't QO quality at the moment so they probably would be considered non-tender if they were to miss 2024 due to TJ.

Coming back from TJ for a starter to be 100% takes 2 years.

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Well yeah, there is risk in any big money contract. That's kind of the point of making Burnes that deal.

And the Donaldson deal didn't hurt the Twins one bit. They got two pretty good years of production, traded him, and received more value in return than they gave up (Urshela and Sanchez outperformed Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa in 2022). Then the Twins turned around and dished Urshela for marginal value from the Angels this offseason.

Despite the Twins taking a "risk", they got two years of Donaldson and then won a trade that sent him away. That sounds like a pretty big victory for them.

I suppose that’s one way to look at it, the other is they dumped Donaldson’s contract and had to include Kiner-Falefa (who they had just traded Garver for).

Gary Sanchez wasn’t even a 1 WAR player for Minnesota, while Urshela was 3.1. Meanwhile, Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa combined for a 5.7 WAR.

The Twins have now jettisoned both Urshela and Sanchez leaving them nothing but an A-ball prospect (which is negated by the minor leaguer they sent to the Yankees originally) to show for the series of moves. On top of that they had to go out and sign Christian Vazquez as a free agent for $30 to fill their hole at catcher which is slightly more than what they’d owe Donaldson for this year and his buy out for ‘24.

So they gave up the two best players in the trade, and saved about 10 million dollars (The difference between Donaldson/Kiner-Falefa and Sanchez/Urshela). Some win. 

That trade was a classic salary dump that didn’t make the Twins  better in the short or long run; I’m glad the Brewers have actually shied away from those kind of antics that the team to the northwest utilizes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

42 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I suppose that’s one way to look at it, the other is they dumped Donaldson’s contract and had to include Kiner-Falefa (who they had just traded Garver for).

Gary Sanchez wasn’t even a 1 WAR player for Minnesota, while Urshela was 3.1. Meanwhile, Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa combined for a 5.7 WAR.

The Twins have now jettisoned both Urshela and Sanchez leaving them nothing but an A-ball prospect (which is negated by the minor leaguer they sent to the Yankees originally) to show for the series of moves. On top of that they had to go out and sign Christian Vazquez as a free agent for $30 to fill their hole at catcher which is slightly more than what they’d owe Donaldson for this year and his buy out for ‘24.

So they gave up the two best players in the trade, and saved about 10 million dollars (The difference between Donaldson/Kiner-Falefa and Sanchez/Urshela). Some win. 

That trade was a classic salary dump that didn’t make the Twins  better in the short or long run; I’m glad the Brewers have actually shied away from those kind of antics that the team to the northwest utilizes.

Where are you getting your numbers?

Donaldson + Kiner-Falefa 2022 bWAR: 5.4
Urshela + Sanchez 2022 bWAR: 4.0

Donaldson + Kiner-Falefa 2022 fWAR: 2.9
Urshela + Sanchez 2022 fWAR: 3.7

That's basically a wash, except the Twins saved a boatload of money both in 2022 and 2023-2024. And they turned part of that money into Carlos Correa... twice.

What you consider "antics", I consider damned smart maneuvering (and I'm not a Twins FO apologist, I rip them pretty regularly). They took the front end of Donaldson's contract, got performance from it, and offloaded that back-end of the contract for equivalent performance at less money. That's some outside the box thinking and I think other front offices from small- and mid-market teams should pay attention.

Why would any team want to keep the back end of a high-risk, high-dollar contract if they don't have to do it? That side of the deal is almost always bad - and often terrible - for the team. You wouldn't have applauded the Brewers had they found a way out from under the final year of Cain's contract before last season and dedicated that money to a younger player? I mean, they're slightly different in that the Twins thought Donaldson was a nuisance and Cain is a good teammate, but the on-field performance risks are similar.

[brewcrewdue80]

3 hours ago, SF70 said:

Coming back from TJ for a starter to be 100% takes 2 years.

What do you mean? For a solid comparison from over a decade ago. Steven Strasburg had TJ after pitching his last game Aug 21st rookie season.

He returned to start 5 games in September the following season. The last game 6IP  1hit 0 runs. 2bbs 10ks.  Elite electric stuff 12months after through 13months after.  

I think TJ required around the Aug 20th dates or later would create playoff eligibility concerns the following season. Before that though, it's very realistic Burnes or any Ace type pitcher to pitch 6-7 innings of shutout baseball for a team in the playoffs. 2 years if you're talking Starting 30+ games in a season.  A team "buying" for a player at the deadline is doing so for September and Playoff games. Not to start 30+games the rest of the season. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

What do you mean? For a solid comparison from over a decade ago. Steven Strasburg had TJ after pitching his last game Aug 21st rookie season.

He returned to start 5 games in September the following season. The last game 6IP  1hit 0 runs. 2bbs 10ks.  Elite electric stuff 12months after through 13months after.  

I think TJ required around the Aug 20th dates or later would create playoff eligibility concerns the following season. Before that though, it's very realistic Burnes or any Ace type pitcher to pitch 6-7 innings of shutout baseball for a team in the playoffs. 2 years if you're talking Starting 30+ games in a season.  A team "buying" for a player at the deadline is doing so for September and Playoff games. Not to start 30+games the rest of the season. 

Yeah, the rehab time on TJ has shortened considerably from 20 years ago when it was roughly "16-18 months to pitch, 24+ months to have full command of breaking pitches". Now it seems to be more like "14-18 months to be back at full strength" and in the cases of having the brace version of TJ, pitchers might be back in 11-13 months.

[SF70]

17 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

What do you mean? For a solid comparison from over a decade ago. Steven Strasburg had TJ after pitching his last game Aug 21st rookie season.

He returned to start 5 games in September the following season. The last game 6IP  1hit 0 runs. 2bbs 10ks.  Elite electric stuff 12months after through 13months after.  

I think TJ required around the Aug 20th dates or later would create playoff eligibility concerns the following season. Before that though, it's very realistic Burnes or any Ace type pitcher to pitch 6-7 innings of shutout baseball for a team in the playoffs. 2 years if you're talking Starting 30+ games in a season.  A team "buying" for a player at the deadline is doing so for September and Playoff games. Not to start 30+games the rest of the season. 

They say 12-18 months recovery time for a pitcher. I’ve yet to see even a relief pitcher effective at anything before 15 months and a starter longer than that. 

A starter usually takes at least 2 years to get his velo & command back to pre-injury form.

[brewmann04]

I think instead of thinking about an extension you should be thinking about what return you should be getting back for him

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, SF70 said:

They say 12-18 months recovery time for a pitcher. I’ve yet to see even a relief pitcher effective at anything before 15 months and a starter longer than that. 

A starter usually takes at least 2 years to get his velo & command back to pre-injury form.

That was absolutely true 10+ years ago. I don't think it is anymore. I'd have to go back and chart some guys' exact calendar dates but I'm 90% confident pitchers come back from TJ quite a bit faster than they did in the past.

[TURBO]

Back to the original topic, No, I do not think they are currently working on an extension.  That time was 2 years ago, and since according to Burnes himself, that didn't happen, it is far too late for a team as tight as we are, to even have a chance to do it now.

No chance he takes a discount, if the recent arbitration battle isn't a clear sign that isn't going to happen, I don't know what else can be said about it.  Why we had to fight ove a measly half a million is beyond me.  Which is another reason I think there is zero chance of an extention.  If in good faith we thought we had a shot, we would have given him what he wanted to save face, and secure a small chance we can sign him.  Since we said SCREW YOU, we aren't going to give in and give you that extra half a million, the writing was already on the wal that wasn't going to happen, so we saved a little money, and realized he was a goner.

I think it's time to accept the fact that he is going to leave, and now, like brewmann said above, it's time to concentrate on what we can get for him either between now and opening day, or next off season.

We simply have no shot at an extension unless we want to completely bury our payroll for the next decade.  After seeing what has happened with the Yelich contract, I just don't think they will want to risk it again, and pay 2 guys more than half of our payroll for the foreseeable future.  It just isn't feasible.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers are leveraging Burnes' last two years of arbitration for one year of free agency to hammer out an extension.  Earlier this year MLB sold an asset that will net the organization about $30 million.  I am expecting something like 3 years at $60-70 million.  But I do think in the end the Brewers will trade Burnes along with Woodward and Adames.  Just not all in a 6 month window.  I hope the Brewers scouting department can uncover a few hidden gems.