Do you think the Brewers are working on a longer term deal with Corbin Burnes

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Sounds plausible maybe 3yrs 70-90 million.  Give Corbin a few more dollars in arbitration for one year of free agency.

[Scooterfletcher]

I think there is zero chance of this anyway, but the failure to settle before arbitration is the clincher for me.   No chance Mark A pays Burnes close to what Boras would seek in bypassing free agency for his client.

[adambr2]

No.

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

I think there is zero chance of this anyway, but the failure to settle before arbitration is the clincher for me.   No chance Mark A pays Burnes close to what Boras would seek in bypassing free agency for his client.

Pretty sure Burnes is with CAA not Boras.

[Brewcrew82]

I would hope they've had discussions at the very least, which is more than was the case when Corbin was asked about it in August...

[brewmann04]

I think we have one more year before he traded 

[Robocaller]

No I do not.

 

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

I think we have one more year before he traded 

More like 8 months.

 

[SF70]

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

More like 8 months.

 

No way this team trades any of the big 3 if they are smack dab in the middle of a pennant race again after the heat they took with the Hader trade last trade-deadline.

Looking at this team — I think it’s highly likely they will be in contention all year long, so they will buy and not sell.

Next offseason — unless they get what they want by trade, which is difficult to do because teams hoard their best prospects choosing instead to buy talent in the FA realm, they likely hold and arby them.

The team has the financial flexibility to arby all 3 next offseason and still have the ability to be “opportunistic” in “building around them” one last time.

Of course things will change if the team disappoints prior to this years trade-deadline.

[Lathund]

Whether it's the shorter deals with super high AAV like Verlander, Scherzer, Bauer, or the long Gerrit Cole type deals, I think it's fairly clear that the Brewers can't extend Burnes. Or rather they can, but unless there is a significant increase to overall payroll it just makes no sense to do so, as otherwise it takes up such a huge portion of the payroll so as to make building a strong team very difficult, And that's even if Burnes remains as good as he is; if he doesn't, it's even worse. At this point it's just a matter of when he leaves, not if. I'd be interested in looking at what the teams who pursued Rodon/Verlander etc but missed out are looking to offer tbh, but happy to postpone any trade too. 

Quote

I would hope they've had discussions at the very least, which is more than was the case when Corbin was asked about it in August...

I've seen many reactions to that quote along the lines of "Brewers aren't even interested in trying to extend him?!?!?", but I don't really buy that. Formal discussions or not, they obviously talk to their agent and they know roughly what kind of deal (if any) the player would be seeking. If that is just so far beyond what the Brewers would be willing or able to go to that no deal could be reached, why even start formal negotiations? Peralta and Ashby got early extensions, and if they got extensions then surely the Brewers would have broached the idea with Woody and Burnes too. 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Does anyone know the win-loss record of the Brewers in the games Burnes and Woodruff pitched the last 3 years?  Is the win percentage significantly higher than the other starters on the team?  I don't think I have ever read any literature comparing win-loss records.  I think that would be an interesting statistic that should be used in whether to resign either starter.  Also, I find it a bit funny that the Brewers could sign Adames, Woodruff, and Burnes for about the same price as Yelich the past two years.  I would use this argument to never sign players to long term deals again.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Does anyone know the win-loss record of the Brewers in the games Burnes and Woodruff pitched the last 3 years?  

Threw in 2021 Peralta for good measure too...

2020
Burnes: 5-4
Woody: 6-7
Others: 18-20

2021
Burnes: 19-9
Woody: 16-14
Peralta: 18-9
Others: 42-35

2022
Burnes: 20-13
Woody: 19-8
Others: 47-55

Obviously 2020 was a small, weird sample, but normally competitive teams end up around the W% range of 2021 Burnes/Peralta or 2022 Burnes/Woody when pitchers of that calibre take the mound.

2021 Woody was a victim of poor run support, at only 3.8 R/GS. In 2022 he clocked in at a team best 5.0 R/GS. Maybe he took the whole offense to Turks & Caicos in the offseason or something, I dunno.

[Robocaller]

On 1/15/2023 at 6:40 AM, SF70 said:

No way this team trades any of the big 3 if they are smack dab in the middle of a pennant race again after the heat they took with the Hader trade last trade-deadline.

Looking at this team — I think it’s highly likely they will be in contention all year long, so they will buy and not sell.

Next offseason — unless they get what they want by trade, which is difficult to do because teams hoard their best prospects choosing instead to buy talent in the FA realm, they likely hold and arby them.

The team has the financial flexibility to arby all 3 next offseason and still have the ability to be “opportunistic” in “building around them” one last time.

Of course things will change if the team disappoints prior to this years trade-deadline.

They could be leading the division in 8 months or they could be hovering around .500.  Impossible to know.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well for an idea on why not. Gotta imagine a deal would look like.

23 is about to be hashed out.

2024-2030.

7 years. 276mil.

30m

39m

40m

41m

42m

43m

44m.

Many bites at the apple remember.  Or take that nearly 40m a year avg split to 3 players at 11, 13, and 16m. 

 

 

 

 

[MrTPlush]

On 1/14/2023 at 8:31 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

I would hope they've had discussions at the very least, which is more than was the case when Corbin was asked about it in August...

 Much like with Hader, I don't think the Brewers have any interest/ability to pay him. So they didn't even bother asking him. If they talked to him now it went a little like this:

Brewers: Hey Burnes, lets talk a potential extension.

Burnes: Looking for around $300mil+

Brewers: This is why we didn't ask, have a nice day.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

 Much like with Hader, I don't think the Brewers have any interest/ability to pay him. So they didn't even bother asking him. If they talked to him now it went a little like this:

Brewers: Hey Burnes, lets talk a potential extension.

Burnes: Looking for around $300mil+

Brewers: This is why we didn't ask, have a nice day.

The two sides cannot even agree on a value for '23 when he's obligated to play for the Brewers, thus the idea of an extension already has a few holes below the water line. 

Besides, it's the nature of the business for Front Office personnel to generally know where players and their agents are at. As pointed out already, most likely Burnes' camp has made clear he's not looking for a short term contract, or a below market AAV, which makes formal discussions pointless.  

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

 Much like with Hader, I don't think the Brewers have any interest/ability to pay him. So they didn't even bother asking him. If they talked to him now it went a little like this:

Brewers: Hey Burnes, lets talk a potential extension.

Burnes: Looking for around $300mil+

Brewers: This is why we didn't ask, have a nice day.

Not even approaching him would be so lazy and disappointing from this FO. Like I realize that what he’s going to be asking for is likely way out of the Brewers financial means, but there’s literally zero downside to having discussions. We’re talking about the most dominant pitcher in franchise history here…

[brewmann04]

Burnes is going to be moved at sometime the Brewers can't afford to keep him long term.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Am I the only one who thinks that at this point the arbitration thing is getting blown out of proportion? Can’t they keep negotiating and come to an agreement at any point before the ruling comes down?

[nate82]

Just now, CheeseheadInQC said:

Am I the only one who thinks that at this point the arbitration thing is getting blown out of proportion? Can’t they keep negotiating and come to an agreement at any point before the ruling comes down?

Yes they can. 

[jerichoholicninja]

Burnes and his agent know what he wants and they also know the Brewers can't and will never offer it.

The Brewers front office have a pretty good idea what Burnes will get on the free agent market and they know they can't and shouldn't offer it.

Everyone involved knows the situation here. There's no "hurt feelings" by anyone involved if there is or isn't an effort made by either side to get a deal done because both sides know it's just not going to happen. 

[nate82]

I wouldn't be surprised if a 2-year deal is agreed to with Burnes.  Something like 2-years $26-32m is something I could see the Brewers and Burnes coming to an agreement on.  Burnes next year should be somewhere around $20m in arbitration assuming he has another good year in '23.

The pro for Burnes signing the deal now is he will get more this year at the cost of losing out on that $20m in arbitration next year.  It also guarantees the 2-years and if he is injured or doesn't perform as well then he would at worst be coming in even.  Burnes with a bad or injured year still would cost about $16m in arbitration next year.  

So if the Brewers can get something like 2-years $30m which would basically be splitting the cost and savings for the Brewers and Burnes.  Even at 2-years $32m that is still a win for both sides though more so for Burnes.  If any discussions are being made now it would be to buyout Burnes remaining arbitration years.  It is far too late to be talking about a contract extension with Burnes.  After the '19 or '20 season would have been the perfect time to have talked with Burnes about an extension.  He is too close to FA right now to be talking about an extension. 

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if a 2-year deal is agreed to with Burnes.  Something like 2-years $26-32m is something I could see the Brewers and Burnes coming to an agreement on.  Burnes next year should be somewhere around $20m in arbitration assuming he has another good year in '23.

The pro for Burnes signing the deal now is he will get more this year at the cost of losing out on that $20m in arbitration next year.  It also guarantees the 2-years and if he is injured or doesn't perform as well then he would at worst be coming in even.  Burnes with a bad or injured year still would cost about $16m in arbitration next year.  

So if the Brewers can get something like 2-years $30m which would basically be splitting the cost and savings for the Brewers and Burnes.  Even at 2-years $32m that is still a win for both sides though more so for Burnes.  If any discussions are being made now it would be to buyout Burnes remaining arbitration years.  It is far too late to be talking about a contract extension with Burnes.  After the '19 or '20 season would have been the perfect time to have talked with Burnes about an extension.  He is too close to FA right now to be talking about an extension. 

This actually leads me to an interesting question. Say Burnes got injured and needed TJ surgery this season. Would Brewers bring him back in 2024 even if he can’t pitch so they can get the comp pick when he leaves in FA in 2025 or would they non-tender him to save money?

[nate82]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

This actually leads me to an interesting question. Say Burnes got injured and needed TJ surgery this season. Would Brewers bring him back in 2024 even if he can’t pitch so they can get the comp pick when he leaves in FA in 2025 or would they non-tender him to save money?

They would tender him a contract in arbitration.  Even if it means losing money now you are losing more money by getting nothing for him in the future. 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if a 2-year deal is agreed to with Burnes.  Something like 2-years $26-32m is something I could see the Brewers and Burnes coming to an agreement on.  Burnes next year should be somewhere around $20m in arbitration assuming he has another good year in '23.

The pro for Burnes signing the deal now is he will get more this year at the cost of losing out on that $20m in arbitration next year.  It also guarantees the 2-years and if he is injured or doesn't perform as well then he would at worst be coming in even.  Burnes with a bad or injured year still would cost about $16m in arbitration next year.  

So if the Brewers can get something like 2-years $30m which would basically be splitting the cost and savings for the Brewers and Burnes.  Even at 2-years $32m that is still a win for both sides though more so for Burnes.  If any discussions are being made now it would be to buyout Burnes remaining arbitration years.  It is far too late to be talking about a contract extension with Burnes.  After the '19 or '20 season would have been the perfect time to have talked with Burnes about an extension.  He is too close to FA right now to be talking about an extension. 

He’s not going to take a discount, so there’s really no reason for the Brewers to want to do a two year deal.  
 

Corbin Burnes is wealthy already, whenever he signs this year he’ll become fantastically wealthy. So he doesn’t need the security at the cost of selling himself short. 

I know Fielder did a 2 year deal covering his final two arbitration years, but the money players are getting since the new CBA insane, and as such there is zero reason for Burnes not to go year to year and bet on himself, he’ll do way better money wise.