Article: How the Brewers - Like Many Small Market Teams - Fool Us About Baseball's Economics

[Caswell]

Fans of baseball see the massive amount of money spent, though fans of the Milwaukee Brewers look on from afar. While it is still a couple of months out, with Opening Day on March 30th this year, there could be a reason to be concerned.

Just so you know, the data in this article is accurate as of 1:00 pm on January 9th, 2023. The details of Adam Engel's deal with the San Diego Padres have yet to be released. Contract information has been gathered from spotrac and Baseball Prospectus, while inflation data has been gathered from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ticket pricing is from official Milwaukee Brewer documents.

The Milwaukee Brewers became the last team to sign someone to a major league contract, with Wade Miley returning to the team where he had his one of his best seasons in 2018. Despite the other moves made via trades, the Brewers remain behind the eight ball in actual spending.

Ninety-six players signed major league contracts in free agency, committing over $3.6 billion without including any bonuses. Both New York teams spent the most, with eight signings for $717 million by the Mets and four for $573.5 million by the Yankees. Eight teams have committed over $100 million, and just one has spent less than Milwaukee, the Atlanta Braves. 

 

Looking at the National League Central, spending this offseason shows continued trailing efforts, with drastic improvements by the rival Chicago Cubs mainly to their shortstop of the future, Dansby Swanson. St. Louis has also been working to improve by replacing their longtime backstop, Yadier Molina, with the former Cub, Willson Contreras .

Team	Number of Signings	Total Cash	AAV
Cincinnati Reds	3	$11,925,000	$11,925,000
Chicago Cubs	7	$291,520,000	$76,055,714
Milwaukee Brewers	1	$4,500,000	$4,500,000
Pittsburgh Pirates	5	$25,375,000	$25,375,000
St. Louis Cardinals	1	$87,500,000	$17,500,000

The Brewers have done something, as all teams have, with most of the changes being made via trade. They, too, brought a catching Contreras to the team via Willson’s brother, William Contreras. In addition to that key acquisition, the Brewers have traded for seven other players who have appeared in the MLB previously (Abraham Toro, Elvis Peguero, Janson Junk, Javy Guerra, Jesse Winker, Owen Miller, and Payton Henry), among other players. Esteury Ruiz, Hunter Renfroe, and Kolten Wong are the critical players lost in these trades.

These moves leave the fans wanting more, with a general feeling of contented-ness, if there would be some activity in securing one of the current stars for a long-term extension. There is room remaining to drop some money in free agency as well.

When Mark Attanasio bought the Milwaukee Brewers in 2005, he spent $223 million. The most recent valuation by Forbes of the Brewers has them at $1.28 billion, an increase of almost 500%. Despite this significant investment and fantastic recent team success, an unwillingness to spend more appears.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/194623/mlb-franchise-value-of-the-milwaukee-brewers-since-2006/

The franchise record for salary was set in 2022 at approximately $130 million. As of now, there is only about $47 million officially committed for the 2023 season, but projections have them spending about $115 million after all contract negotiations and arbitration processes, which is an 11.5% decrease from the team which just missed the postseason for the first time in four seasons. 

Despite living on the verge of success, there is yet to be visible progress while other teams jump ahead. Looking at two division rivals, the Cardinals and the Cubs have revamped their roster, each having committed at or above what projections have slated for the Brewers. Their projections are $154 million for the Cardinals and $172 million for the Cubs. Across the league, the Crew looks low, with an average projection of approximately $150 million, markedly less than Milwaukee’s payroll projection of $115 million.

The payroll is a moving average, and projections for this year appear to match last year’s average payroll of $150 million, even with the vast spending spree thus far in free agency. With this moving average, the Brewers remain below standard. They rank near the bottom third in total payroll and have met the league average once.

Milwaukee Brewers
Season	Payroll (*Projected)	Payroll Ranking	Normalized Payroll
2020	$41,434,086.00	23	0.67
2021	$99,377,415.00	19	0.76
2022	$130,769,325.00	19	0.87
2023*	$115,176,286.00	19	0.76
2023	$47,284,960.00	24	0.41

Note: 2020 season was shortened to 60 games due to the global Covid-19 Pandemic

Most disappointingly, however, is how this spending is inversely proportional to what the most die-hard fans pay to become a season seat holder. What these fans pay is marketed as a discount of up to 37% in 2023 and 35% in 2022 off the single-game demand-based rate. Since 2021, new season seat holder prices have gone up, on average, about 4% per year, with some going up as much as 8% (based on data from 2021 and 2023). For returning season seat holders, from 2022 to 2023, prices have gone up 5% on average, with some as much as 15% from the previous season. I guess one thing that fans could be thankful for is that these prices haven’t grossly exceeded inflation over these periods for the most part. 

Revenue is more than season ticket sales, let alone ticket sales overall. With that being said, the Milwaukee Brewers have exploded in valuation, yet are putting out a declining product without investing more money to fix the issues despite taking more money from the consumer, the fans. 

 

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[Fear The Chorizo]

Valuation means nothing in terms of actual dollars to spend unless you sell the team, or unless you borrow against that valuation.  This article talks about how the Cards and Cubs have been big spenders in the NL Central relative to the rest of the division this offseason - to that I say "of course"....look at what the television/broadcast contracts for the NL Central teams are along with market size and you know why the Cubs and Cards can spend more than the Brewers.  Their average ticket prices are also significantly higher than the Brewers...perhaps this article should include a push to dramatically increase the average ticket price for Brewer games in order to bolster actual revenue and afford longterm contract extensions, so they can at least be competitive with the rest of their division financially.  

[sveumrules]

Here are the Brewers full season OD Payrolls per Cots (with MLB ranks) over the last 15 years, during which time the Brewers have won the 8th most games in MLB…

2022: $132M (19th) 
2021: $99M (19th) 
2019: $123M (17th) 
2018: $99M (26th) 
2017: $63M (30th) 
2016: $64M (30th) 
2015: $104M (20th) 
2014: $104M (16th) 
2013: $89M (19th) 
2012: $98M (13th)
2011: $84M (17th)
2010: $90M (17th)
2009: $80M (17th)
2008: $81M (15th) 

The Brewers have a decade and a half long history of outperforming their payroll rank in the win column.

Consistently ranking around 17th-19th in payroll is probably the ceiling given Milwaukee’s market size and TV contract are among the smallest in MLB.

The idea that the Brewers are putting out a declining product is demonstrably false too…

1983-2007: 1874-2105 (.471 W%)
2008-11: 343-305 (.529 W%)
2012-16: 380-430 (.469 W%)
2017-22: 481-390 (.552 W%)

The last six seasons have been the best run of Brewers baseball since making the WS forty years ago.

[MrTPlush]

29 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

 

2022: $132M (19th) 
2021: $99M (19th) 
2019: $123M (17th) 
2018: $99M (26th) 
2017: $63M (30th) 
2016: $64M (30th) 
2015: $104M (20th) 
2014: $104M (16th) 
2013: $89M (19th) 
2012: $98M (13th)
2011: $84M (17th)
2010: $90M (17th)
2009: $80M (17th)
2008: $81M (15th) 

 

Yah, it really comes down to this. They aren't really adding payroll and their 'record payroll' isn't really anything to actually find impressive. It really is just baseball inflation at work. However, they also aren't really cutting payroll or being cheap. I suppose it would be nice to see them do like they did in 2012 and give it a go before they payroll inevitably shrinks a bit due to losing some expensive stars...but is what it is.

I don't get people really getting hung up on what is likely a $10mil (maybe less by OD) payroll reduction. MLB players cost money and usually in the form of multi year deals. I don't really want them to find the need to sign some middling player for 3/$30mil just so we can make sure the 2023 payroll matches the 2022 one.  

People like to complain about baseball's smallest market ranking in the teens for payroll. We should be glad our owner actually cares. There are plenty of other tiny markets (and even some larger ones) that the owners love to penny pinch and still are trotting out sub $100mil payrolls.

[wibadgers23]

51 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Here are the Brewers full season OD Payrolls per Cots (with MLB ranks) over the last 15 years, during which time the Brewers have won the 8th most games in MLB…

 

2022: $132M (19th) 
2021: $99M (19th) 
2019: $123M (17th) 
2018: $99M (26th) 
2017: $63M (30th) 
2016: $64M (30th) 
2015: $104M (20th) 
2014: $104M (16th) 
2013: $89M (19th) 
2012: $98M (13th)
2011: $84M (17th)
2010: $90M (17th)
2009: $80M (17th)
2008: $81M (15th) 

The Brewers have a decade and a half long history of outperforming their payroll rank in the win column.

Consistently ranking around 17th-19th in payroll is probably the ceiling given Milwaukee’s market size and TV contract are among the smallest in MLB.

The idea that the Brewers are putting out a declining product is demonstrably false too…

1983-2007: 1874-2105 (.471 W%)
2008-11: 343-305 (.529 W%)
2012-16: 380-430 (.469 W%)
2017-22: 481-390 (.552 W%)

The last six seasons have been the best run of Brewers baseball since making the WS forty years ago.

I think there are going to be fans who will make the argument that Mark A didn't really push the payroll to new heights during this run of one of the best starting rotations in Brewers history.  Whether that would equal more wins or a WS title - nobody knows.  

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Don't forget Mark A. has revamped the minor leagues which comes at a cost to the major league team.  The Brewers are also more active signing international players.  But if the middling salary means the team will be more active trading for players rather than signing free agents I am all for it.  I like trades a lot more than spending vast amounts of money on names.  No one player has ever won a World Series.  Today's teams seem to have forgotten that.

[Jopal78]

I don't understand the point of this article, besides the obvious click bait. It ignores recent Brewers history; they are typically more of a player in free agency late in the off-season:

Trevor Hoffman--January 8th

Mike Cameron--January 11th

Yasmani Grandal--January 14th

Nori Aoki--January 17th

Matt Garza--- January 28th

Lorenzo Cain-- January 26th

Kolten Wong--February 5th

Mike Moustakas--February 19th

Jackie Bradley Jr.--March 8th 

Kyle Lohse--March 25th

(Plus, other veterans on year cheap deals: Jim Edmonds, Zach Duke, Wade Miley x2, McCutchen etc.).

If anyone expected the Brewers to be players in November and December for the premium free agents, they were dreaming in the first place.

Now certainly one could credibly argue as of January 9th, 2023 the free agent class is mostly picked over; however what the Brewers have spent on free agents so far and what that means, is mostly worthless given their track record over the last 10-15 years. 

 

[clancyphile]

Plus, there is one other factor: Just how good is the farm system?

If there are a lot of promising rookies (Turang, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer...) who would be better options for the Brewers in the near future, why shouldn't the Crew go with them instead of spending big money on a free agent arguably on the wrong side of 30?

[Thurston Fluff]

Free agency is used by teams to make up for failing in other areas.

[SF70]

7 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Don't forget Mark A. has revamped the minor leagues which comes at a cost to the major league team.  The Brewers are also more active signing international players.  But if the middling salary means the team will be more active trading for players rather than signing free agents I am all for it.  I like trades a lot more than spending vast amounts of money on names.  No one player has ever won a World Series.  Today's teams seem to have forgotten that.

The team I believe has recently invested more resources Internationally re-furbishing their Dominican academy and they are one of only 5 teams that field 2 full teams in the DSL & ACL. 

 

[BlightyBrew]

After almost 6 decades on this planet these are the truths that I believe are universal:

1. Taxes

2. Death

3. Rich people will always want to tell you how poor they are.

4. There are those that win championships and those that tell you why they can't.

5. There are shepherds and there are sheep.

 

Milwaukee Brewers - 53 yrs in existence.  1 Pennant.  1 WS appearance. 0 WS Rings.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

After almost 6 decades on this planet these are the truths that I believe are universal:

1. Taxes

2. Death

3. Rich people will always want to tell you how poor they are.

4. There are those that win championships and those that tell you why they can't.

5. There are shepherds and there are sheep.

 

Milwaukee Brewers - 53 yrs in existence.  1 Pennant.  1 WS appearance. 0 WS Rings.

 

Being a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers is the ultimate lesson in "life is a journey, so enjoy the trip." I suppose that is the case even if you never reach your destination. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

23 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't understand the point of this article, besides the obvious click bait. It ignores recent Brewers history; they are typically more of a player in free agency late in the off-season:

Trevor Hoffman--January 8th

Mike Cameron--January 11th

Yasmani Grandal--January 14th

Nori Aoki--January 17th

Matt Garza--- January 28th

Lorenzo Cain-- January 26th

Kolten Wong--February 5th

Mike Moustakas--February 19th

Jackie Bradley Jr.--March 8th 

Kyle Lohse--March 25th

(Plus, other veterans on year cheap deals: Jim Edmonds, Zach Duke, Wade Miley x2, McCutchen etc.).

If anyone expected the Brewers to be players in November and December for the premium free agents, they were dreaming in the first place.

Now certainly one could credibly argue as of January 9th, 2023 the free agent class is mostly picked over; however what the Brewers have spent on free agents so far and what that means, is mostly worthless given their track record over the last 10-15 years. 

 

There are certainly some free agents remaining that would be solid fits on this roster.

1B Trey Mancini - He would be a great bat to have, especially against left-handed pitchers, He could platoon with Tellez and see time as a DH and even in the corner OF.

3B Brian Anderson - Another versatile guy who can see time at 3B, 1B and in the OF. Having him would allow the Brewers to move Urias to 2B if they don't feel Turang is quite ready for a full time role.

LHP Andrew Chafin - Having him around would go a long way toward shoring up the pen and once again making it a potential strength. 

UTL Tommy La Stella - Would be a decent veteran bat to have on the bench. Can play most anywhere. I mean, Jedd Gyorko worked out a few years ago. 

There are lots of interesting relievers still out there as well. 

[jerichoholicninja]

9 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

Milwaukee Brewers - 53 yrs in existence.  1 Pennant.  1 WS appearance. 0 WS Rings.

 

San Diego Padres - 53 yrs in existence. 2 pennants. 2 WS appearances. 0 WS Rings.

Texas Rangers - 50 yrs in existence. 2 pennants. 2 WS appearances. 0 WS Rings.

Seattle Mariners - 45 yrs in existence. 0 pennants. 0 WS appearance. 0 WS Rings.

Fun game. Here we have 4 teams that have all been around for about the same amount of time with the same level of (lack of) success. The Rangers have made plenty of splashy signings in their history and the Padres are doing that now. Even the Mariners have opened the pocket book a couple times. The Brewers have by far the smallest market and spend the least and yet have the best overall franchise winning percentage of them all. (MIL .484, TEX .475, SEA .473, SD .464). It's almost like spending lots of money doesn't guarantee anything at all.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

16 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

San Diego Padres - 53 yrs in existence. 2 pennants. 2 WS appearances. 0 WS Rings.

Texas Rangers - 50 yrs in existence. 2 pennants. 2 WS appearances. 0 WS Rings.

Seattle Mariners - 45 yrs in existence. 0 pennants. 0 WS appearance. 0 WS Rings.

Fun game. Here we have 4 teams that have all been around for about the same amount of time with the same level of (lack of) success. The Rangers have made plenty of splashy signings in their history and the Padres are doing that now. Even the Mariners have opened the pocket book a couple times. The Brewers have by far the smallest market and spend the least and yet have the best overall franchise winning percentage of them all. (MIL .484, TEX .475, SEA .473, SD .464). It's almost like spending lots of money doesn't guarantee anything at all.

There are a lot of fans on this website and in general that judge a team by the amount of money spent on roster construction.  Not by wins and losses.  Completely baffling!

[clancyphile]

Here's a thought experiment...

If the Brewers had a starting outfield of Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer, with Turang at 2B, and each of them hit the way they did in 2022... would there still be a push for signing a free agent or complaints about payroll because the combined salaries would be under $4 million?

[wiguy94]

22 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Here's a thought experiment...

If the Brewers had a starting outfield of Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer, with Turang at 2B, and each of them hit the way they did in 2022... would there still be a push for signing a free agent or complaints about payroll because the combined salaries would be under $4 million?

If Frelick had a 137 wRC+, Mitchell a 118 wRC+, Wiemer a 109 wRC+ and Turang a 108 wRC+ not a single Brewers fan would complain. If those 4 hit like that they would probably combine for 12-14 WAR and we would probably win 100 games. 

[BlightyBrew]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

Here's a thought experiment...

If the Brewers had a starting outfield of Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer, with Turang at 2B, and each of them hit the way they did in 2022... would there still be a push for signing a free agent or complaints about payroll because the combined salaries would be under $4 million?

Hope springs eternal.

[DR28]

22 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

There are certainly some free agents remaining that would be solid fits on this roster.

1B Trey Mancini - He would be a great bat to have, especially against left-handed pitchers, He could platoon with Tellez and see time as a DH and even in the corner OF.

3B Brian Anderson - Another versatile guy who can see time at 3B, 1B and in the OF. Having him would allow the Brewers to move Urias to 2B if they don't feel Turang is quite ready for a full time role.

LHP Andrew Chafin - Having him around would go a long way toward shoring up the pen and once again making it a potential strength. 

UTL Tommy La Stella - Would be a decent veteran bat to have on the bench. Can play most anywhere. I mean, Jedd Gyorko worked out a few years ago. 

There are lots of interesting relievers still out there as well. 

Really hoping Brian Anderson and Trevor Rosenthal or Alex Reyes are late January/February deals...

[Jopal78]

22 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

There are certainly some free agents remaining that would be solid fits on this roster.

1B Trey Mancini - He would be a great bat to have, especially against left-handed pitchers, He could platoon with Tellez and see time as a DH and even in the corner OF.

3B Brian Anderson - Another versatile guy who can see time at 3B, 1B and in the OF. Having him would allow the Brewers to move Urias to 2B if they don't feel Turang is quite ready for a full time role.

LHP Andrew Chafin - Having him around would go a long way toward shoring up the pen and once again making it a potential strength. 

UTL Tommy La Stella - Would be a decent veteran bat to have on the bench. Can play most anywhere. I mean, Jedd Gyorko worked out a few years ago. 

There are lots of interesting relievers still out there as well. 

Will Smith (LHP) is still looking for a job, 

Jurickson Profar has played every position where the Brewer still need help. 

 

[jerichoholicninja]

12 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Here's a thought experiment...

If the Brewers had a starting outfield of Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer, with Turang at 2B, and each of them hit the way they did in 2022... would there still be a push for signing a free agent or complaints about payroll because the combined salaries would be under $4 million?

You'll find that generally those that complain about lack of spending use a world series title as the only measure for successful season. So unless the team wins the world series in any given year, those people will always complain about how much (or little) the team spends.

[DR28]

29 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

You'll find that generally those that complain about lack of spending use a world series title as the only measure for successful season. So unless the team wins the world series in any given year, those people will always complain about how much (or little) the team spends.

Well WS title is the end goal..................

[wibadgers23]

58 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

You'll find that generally those that complain about lack of spending use a world series title as the only measure for successful season. So unless the team wins the world series in any given year, those people will always complain about how much (or little) the team spends.

One WS title in my existence would be nice. I’d even take an appearance.

[Devinep]

On 1/12/2023 at 11:13 AM, jerichoholicninja said:

San Diego Padres - 53 yrs in existence. 2 pennants. 2 WS appearances. 0 WS Rings.

Texas Rangers - 50 yrs in existence. 2 pennants. 2 WS appearances. 0 WS Rings.

Seattle Mariners - 45 yrs in existence. 0 pennants. 0 WS appearance. 0 WS Rings.

Fun game. Here we have 4 teams that have all been around for about the same amount of time with the same level of (lack of) success. The Rangers have made plenty of splashy signings in their history and the Padres are doing that now. Even the Mariners have opened the pocket book a couple times. The Brewers have by far the smallest market and spend the least and yet have the best overall franchise winning percentage of them all. (MIL .484, TEX .475, SEA .473, SD .464). It's almost like spending lots of money doesn't guarantee anything at all.

People who say “spending doesn’t equal winning” need to stop strawmanning. It would help the brewers if they spent more (while still being good At the things they’re currently good at) to get another good player or 2

[sveumrules]

11 hours ago, Devinep said:

People who say “spending doesn’t equal winning” need to stop strawmanning. It would help the brewers if they spent more (while still being good At the things they’re currently good at) to get another good player or 2

In 2011 the Brewers OD payroll of $84M ranked 17th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $98M OD payroll ranking 13th (highest ever under Mark A) and won 83 games.

In 2018 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 26th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $123M OD payroll ranking 17th and won 89 games.

In 2021 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 19th. They won 95 games. They followed that up with a $132M OD payroll, a big increase but not enough to get out of 19th place, and won 86 games.

That’s three recent-ish examples where increased spending didn’t result in increased winning.

I’d say sometimes spending equals winning and sometimes it doesn’t. Being able to spend more can be helpful if done intelligently, but it doesn’t guarantee anything either.