Jackson Chourio - What it means to be Under 20 and a top 10 Prospect

[MrTPlush]

15 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Both Arcia and Robles were "top" prospects because the scouting community consistently drools over speed and defense even when there are question marks with the bat.  There's nothing that excites them more than a "sure-fire shortstop," or a "future gold glove CFer". This has bothered me for a long time. Arcia may have been hyped within the community of Brewers fans, but he was never a big hype prospect nationally, regardless of where he was ranked. In addition with regard to Arcia, a lot of his prospect value was in having a "projectable frame," a frame which never really filled out to a meaningful degree.

I'm not suggesting that Chourio WILL become an MVP caliber player, because there are a lot of things that could go wrong (his strikeout and whiff rate numbers are a concern), but he's in a different stratosphere as a prospect than Orlando Arcia.

In 2016 he was pretty much a consensus Top 10 prospect in baseball. MLB.com had him at #6 and Baseball America had him at #8. What is your definition of being hyped nationally? Hard to get more hyped than that.

I don't think this was a huge piece of his prospect value, but regardless, he did hit his power projection. He was only ever expected to hit about 15 homers at the MLB level. He has definitely had that kind of power most of his career. 

I don't think he is in a different stratosphere, he is just a different kind of prospect in a different era. Chourio is a high offensive ceiling guy and Arcia was an elite prospect at the most premium position on the diamond. He was both a hitter and a defender...something that pretty much didn't exist back in 2016. Of course now, I don't know if Arcia would have been even a Top 50 prospect because the SS position transformed into one of the strongest places on the diamond. Wasn't the case when he was coming up though.

[Playing Catch]

I guess what I'm implying is that if you were to ask 10 of the scouts that had Arcia ranked in the top 10 in 2016, 9 of them wouldn't hesitate to state that Chourio is in a different stratosphere as a prospect, regardless of where they rank the two players.

I believe this is because when push comes to shove, even the scouts would acknowledge that a premium middle-of-the-order bat is far more valuable, and difficult to acquire than a borderline GG shortstop whose power ceiling is 15 HRs.

If EVERYTHING comes together for Arcia, the prospect, then he becomes what? Omar Vizquel?

If EVERYTHING comes together for Chourio?

[MrTPlush]

16 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

If EVERYTHING comes together for Arcia, the prospect, then he becomes what? Omar Vizquel?

You are using the advantage of retrospect though. As I said before, when Arcia was a prospect the SS position was horrendous. Finding average offense was almost impossible to get, even if the defense wasn't that great. Teams trotted out Yuni B as a SS on NLCS teams. 

When he was a prospect his ceiling was Top 3 SS in the game and even if he didn't reach his ceiling Top 10 seemed almost effortless to achieve. He hit for an .800 OPS in 2015 at AA at the age of 20 years old. I am pretty sure there wasn't a qualified SS in 2015 at the MLB level with an OPS over .800.

 

[umphrey]

Victor Robles is a good reality check, Nomar Mazara is another one. Jackson is not a sure thing and I think he is the weakest prospect listed in the initial post except maybe Bichette. Glad to have him on the Brewers though and hoping he can have another good year. 
 

I was always a little down on Arcia because I hated the argument that “his offensive numbers are only slightly above average but he’s really young so it’s impressive”. Show me you can hit in the minors before I’ll believe you can hit in the majors. This doesn’t apply to Jackson right now because he did hit last year but my point is that he has to show up big in 2023 because just being young is not a skill. 

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, umphrey said:

Victor Robles is a good reality check, Nomar Mazara is another one.

Both were fast CF, but Robles isn’t really a good comp because he never hit for the kind of power or exit velocities that Chourio has already posted.

Nomar Mazara was never a consensus top 10 guy and was always a corner OF. He put up a 130 wRC+ in A ball as a 19 year old. Chourio put up a 160 wRC+ in A ball as an 18 year old.

Those are two completely different calibre of prospects.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Compared to league averages, Arcia’s AA season was every bit as good as any of the shortstops who played mostly at AA last year, including the much hyped Anthony Volpe, and at a younger age. His free swinging nature might dock him a bit more now, but he would still be a top 20 guy.

As for Chourio, it is possible for the following two things to be true: 1. He is deservedly one of the very best prospects in baseball 2. There is no such thing as a can’t miss 18 year old.

[markedman5]

 

[igor67]

I just got around to watching that compilation video of Chourio's HRs. I believe every single one was belt high or above. He seemed to cover the plate reasonably well though it seemed like most were outer half of the plate. Anyone who watched more of his ABs notice any other patterns to his plate coverage? In the current environment being able to hit the high stuff for power is certainly an asset.

[brewcrewdue80]

On 1/10/2023 at 5:01 PM, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Wasn't Orlando Arcia a highly rated prospect?

Arcia was considered a sure fire GG SS and had some bat skills that should his frame filled out was going to do enough on offense to post high WAR seasons with his defense.  That frame just never really came to be. A wall scraper power didn't change.  A body changes growth a lot between ages 17-24. The closer you are to 17&18 the higher ceiling projection you'll see. In Arcia's case he must not have wanted to alter his frame and stayed lean. 

I do have little issues with ranking glove first prospects in the top 25 regardless of age or reaching A+/AA when glove first title still sticks. You can always argue at least 10 guys in top 40 don't appear worthy of even being top 100 prospects.

 

[brewcrewdue80]

Well initially was thinking Chourio willingness to sign an extension could have been influenced on a lower signing but while I thought below 1Mil he signed for 1.9Mil.  Wise enough with his money he could pass through 3 pre-Arb paydays and get to the Million dollar paydays in due time. Maybe he's not good with spending money and needs 100ks more upfront, his willingness to sign the 6-7yr buyout and option FA years will be easier to negotiate.  

[brewcrewdue80]

On 1/11/2023 at 9:18 AM, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I hope Jackson Chourio isn't the second coming of Orlando Arcia.  I am half tempted to trade Jackson now with the helium he has been given.  Yes, he is 18 but his stats are pedestrian.  I hope he continues to develop.

20HRs in 99games at 18. Not pedestrian.  In game power shown off vs the hope will produce 20+HRs. Easy projection to 148games of 30HRs. Currently pegged for CF.  He has 7-10 years to just get to that peak performance age 26-29. CF defense plus offense. Taylor has achieved 3.6BWAR the last 2 seasons with his defense and so-so bat.  You can start to see Chourio is going post some very high WAR years when playing full seasons.

That is all.

[jw5511986]

Whatever the first season is when he plays 80 games for the big league club, if he shows any level of aptitude I'd offer the Acuña contract after that season, but probably adjusted for inflation. Something like 8 years, $105-110 million.

[Playing Catch]

One thing we'll need to remember if Chourio never signs the Acuña contract is that Acuña's international free agent signing bonus was $100,000, while Chourio's was $1.8M. Presumably that makes it a lot easier for Chourio to potentially turn down guaranteed "life-changing money," and plan to hit free agency as soon as possible.

[MrTPlush]

 

On 2/27/2023 at 10:32 PM, brewcrewdue80 said:

Arcia was considered a sure fire GG SS and had some bat skills that should his frame filled out was going to do enough on offense to post high WAR seasons with his defense.  That frame just never really came to be. A wall scraper power didn't change.  A body changes growth a lot between ages 17-24. The closer you are to 17&18 the higher ceiling projection you'll see. In Arcia's case he must not have wanted to alter his frame and stayed lean. 

I do have little issues with ranking glove first prospects in the top 25 regardless of age or reaching A+/AA when glove first title still sticks. You can always argue at least 10 guys in top 40 don't appear worthy of even being top 100 prospects.

 

As I said prior in this thread, this isn't exactly how it was. Arcia was a highly rated prospect because, at the time, the bar for SS's was pathetically low. Back then SS was the thinest position in baseball, pretty much no one had a SS that could hit. It is how Yuni B had a MLB job year after year. An elite glove and any pulse on offense to be above average was going to place you Top 5 in the game at the most premium position. 

 

[MrTPlush]

16 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

One thing we'll need to remember if Chourio never signs the Acuña contract is that Acuña's international free agent signing bonus was $100,000, while Chourio's was $1.8M. Presumably that makes it a lot easier for Chourio to potentially turn down guaranteed "life-changing money," and plan to hit free agency as soon as possible.

One quick look at Venezuelen salaries tells me Chourio already has more money than he and the next five generations would ever know what to do with. Being such a highly rated prospect, there is no way he doesn't get a few cracks at the MLB level to probably double or even triple his career earnings. Lewis Brinson has seen time in 6 different seasons at this point.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think what playing catch meant was Acuna signed a quick extension as he only signed for 100k. Chourio and 1.8M. He may just sit through team control without an extension and wait for his FA monster payday.

What gets me is that you see some of these extensions like Julio Rodriguez. 

700k rookie. Extended.

2-6M. 3-12M. 4th through 8th year 20M per.

Seattle essentially has 1 of Rodriquez FA years bought out. 118M to do that. 

2years of pre Arb 18+M

Super 2/ 4 years 80+M

FA bought out year 20M.

There are a whole lot of Player options but 18M vs for what he's going to see FAs getting in 7Years? 

There is no way you can look at the extension and think Seattle has saved money with it even with that 1 FA year guaranteed.  It'll be tough to extend Chourio if that is what he is comparing his worth while playing his rookie season. 20M by year 4 is spilling in to Yelich still being paid contract. 

So I dunno like do you pick him or pick 2/3 of these other promising guys for extensions so you have more rounded investment to build around filling out your roster? Or maybe have a really high payday the last 1 or 2 years on extension with large buyout for a mutual option. That way Yelich contract would be over in year 6/7.