Jackson Chourio - What it means to be Under 20 and a top 10 Prospect

[Jake McKibbin]

So i;ve done a little digging as a newbie and seeing people say "wow he's so good for 18" that i thought I'd see the history and outcomes of recent top 10 Prospects that were under 20 years old (Currently ranking Jackson chourio at No. 5, and will be 19 for the coming season)

First point of reference I found was in 2020's opening list on fangraphs

1- Wander Franco at 19

9- Julio Rodriguez at 19

2019

1- Vlad Guerrero Jr at 19

2- Wander Franco at 18

6 - Royce Lewis at 19 (Injuries have stalled him big time but stilled got ZiPS projections of a 126 WRC+ this coming year)

2018

3- Vlad Guerrero Jr (18)

5- Fernando Tatis Jr (19) - Also in his Age 19 year, went from hitting a 910 OPS in A Ball to a 600 OPS in 14 games at AA, and SO at 38% clip in his first month there

9- Bo Bichette (19)

Can't obtain age data past this easily, but shows the calibre of player being talked about, and the impact made by recent players in this age range who have been seen so highly. I was surprised that each of these names, barring injury, made a huge impact on their teams

Given his biggest workons are (from what I've read) seeing more pitches, particular sliders dipping away from him, physical development (immense power currently for his size) and just continuing to gain experience, it's very possible that the Brewers have a true perennial top 5/10 MvP  based on the above players.

[Soupbone]

And if this turns out to be true when do the Brewers sign him to a long term deal?

[Jake McKibbin]

If true they'll need to try within few months. But let's be clear it's quite possible it doesn't come to fruition too. Could very easily have given Keaton a big deal when he first came up after that big season

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Wasn't Orlando Arcia a highly rated prospect?

[Brewcrew82]

25 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Wasn't Orlando Arcia a highly rated prospect?

Yes, he featured in the top 10 of some lists in 2016, but did not quite have the hype or helium of Chourio, who is younger and has hit a lot better. Arcia's carrying tool as a prospect was his glove, which ended up becoming solid, though not elite at the MLB level in addition to his disappointment with the bat. Chourio's tools are a lot louder. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Wasn't Orlando Arcia a highly rated prospect?

Yeah, he was around consensus #10 in one year.

But that doesn't really change the metrics on this kind of risk because it's such a small risk.

Say you sign someone like Chourio to an $80m contract the moment he enters the league. You'd get 6-7 years of team control, usually 1-2 years of guaranteed money at a reasonable rate, and maybe an option.

Obviously, $80m is a lot of money. But the upside is that Chourio could literally provide $300m of value during that time and $80m is roughly Chourio's 50th percentile value at this point. You're betting on the middle with huge upside while the downside is you eat $10-20m a year in 4-5 years when the average payroll is probably $170m or more.

It's a massive payday for the player with pretty minimal risk for the team and in the case of Chourio, he'd still probably enter free agency around 29 years old.

[Outlander]

Just one small thing, he will be 19 for the entire baseball season not 18. Obviously still very young.

[Robocaller]

11 hours ago, Soupbone said:

And if this turns out to be true when do the Brewers sign him to a long term deal?

They could; he wouldn't be terribly expensive until Yelich's option year.

[Robocaller]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, he was around consensus #10 in one year.

MLB.com had him number 6, before his age 21 season. He wasn't ranked before his age 19 season.

 

 

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, jakedood said:

If true they'll need to try within few months. But let's be clear it's quite possible it doesn't come to fruition too. Could very easily have given Keaton a big deal when he first came up after that big season

they should definitely wait until he's in the majors before signing him to a ML contract. I'd try to sign him after his second ML season.

 

[Jake McKibbin]

4 hours ago, Outlander said:

Just one small thing, he will be 19 for the entire baseball season not 18. Obviously still very young.

Thats from me reading in my usual date format of 3/11/2004 as the 3rd November 2004! Oops, guessing its the american way of 11th march?

Maybe Tatis is a favourable comp in some ways given he's had extreme power and slightly prone to a strike out, though can his CF defense be a significant factor too?

47 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

they should definitely wait until he's in the majors before signing him to a ML contract. I'd try to sign him after his second ML season.

 

The problem is, with all they hype, whether he would take that deal. A lot of these team friendly deals prey on players who are scared of having career ruined and that old adage "never turn down your first paycheck" but for instance Tatis did sign after a year/2 and look at the deal he got. Maybe a Wander Franco style deal is in the offing, but we'll see. I've a feeling they may need to do so early or he could be out of their price range

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, he was around consensus #10 in one year.

But that doesn't really change the metrics on this kind of risk because it's such a small risk.

Say you sign someone like Chourio to an $80m contract the moment he enters the league. You'd get 6-7 years of team control, usually 1-2 years of guaranteed money at a reasonable rate, and maybe an option.

Obviously, $80m is a lot of money. But the upside is that Chourio could literally provide $300m of value during that time and $80m is roughly Chourio's 50th percentile value at this point. You're betting on the middle with huge upside while the downside is you eat $10-20m a year in 4-5 years when the average payroll is probably $170m or more.

It's a massive payday for the player with pretty minimal risk for the team and in the case of Chourio, he'd still probably enter free agency around 29 years old.

I think this is possible, in part due to the fact he'll be debuting quite young and therefore should have a lot of baseball ahead of him. If brewers had him through age 29 season he'd still have the ability for a massive payday at the end of that while Crew get 8 or so years

[Jake McKibbin]

10 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Wasn't Orlando Arcia a highly rated prospect?

He was, but from looking at the boards, he wasnt as a teenager. There a re a lot of failed top 10 prospects, many of whom are glove first prospects. Chrsitan Pache being one, but it seems top 10 prospects still developing in their teens have a fairly consistent track record of coming up and dominating

[MrTPlush]

Jackson Chourio is hyped up for the same reason Orlando Arcia was. He is really young and hitting well against much older competition. Orlando Arcia catapulted himself after hitting to the tune of an .800+ OPS at AA, while only being 20 years old. 

I would argue Orlando Arcia was just as hyped of a prospect, if not more. Arcia's MiLB stats in 2022 terms don't seem impressive, but people often forget he was coming up before (or at the start) of the huge boom of realizing the Dominican was loaded with SS talent. In 2015 (when Arcia was smoking AA ball) MLB only had two SSs with a WAR over 3.1 according to Fangraphs. Now 13 players at SS have a WAR over 3.1. Arcia's plus plus glove along with a bat that could be average or better...that easily looked like a player to be Top 5 at the most premium position in baseball. Of course, he disappointed, but that was only half the problem of him not living up to his prospect potential. SS went from a position with no talent, to one of the most talent rich positions in baseball. 

[Mass Haas]

Arcia played in 64 games in his "age 16" season in 2011 (turned 17 in August), posting an .845 OPS in the Dominican.

He lost the entire 2012 season due to a broken ankle before jumping directly to low-A Wisconsin for 120 games in '13 (.647 OPS, flashed his athleticism despite 23 errors).

At the time, missing out on an entire year of development seemed huge but hardly insurmountable.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Jackson Chourio is hyped up for the same reason Orlando Arcia was. He is really young and hitting well against much older competition. Orlando Arcia catapulted himself after hitting to the tune of an .800+ OPS at AA, while only being 20 years old. 

I would argue Orlando Arcia was just as hyped of a prospect, if not more. Arcia's MiLB stats in 2022 terms don't seem impressive, but people often forget he was coming up before (or at the start) of the huge boom of realizing the Dominican was loaded with SS talent. In 2015 (when Arcia was smoking AA ball) MLB only had two SSs with a WAR over 3.1 according to Fangraphs. Now 13 players at SS have a WAR over 3.1. Arcia's plus plus glove along with a bat that could be average or better...that easily looked like a player to be Top 5 at the most premium position in baseball. Of course, he disappointed, but that was only half the problem of him not living up to his prospect potential. SS went from a position with no talent, to one of the most talent rich positions in baseball. 

I hope Jackson Chourio isn't the second coming of Orlando Arcia.  I am half tempted to trade Jackson now with the helium he has been given.  Yes, he is 18 but his stats are pedestrian.  I hope he continues to develop.

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I hope Jackson Chourio isn't the second coming of Orlando Arcia.  I am half tempted to trade Jackson now with the helium he has been given.  Yes, he is 18 but his stats are pedestrian.  I hope he continues to develop.

282/342/538 (135 wRC+) across three levels in 2022 is pedestrian?

Tough crowd.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

When talking about the number 8 prospect in all of baseball?

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I hope Jackson Chourio isn't the second coming of Orlando Arcia.  I am half tempted to trade Jackson now with the helium he has been given.  Yes, he is 18 but his stats are pedestrian.  I hope he continues to develop.

Pedestrian?? The kid was the MVP of the Carolina League at 18 years of age, with a 160 wRC+. The only (recent) prospects who have done that at that age are the Sotos, Tatis jrs, and Acunas of the world…

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

When talking about the number 8 prospect in all of baseball?

Which prospects do you believe have better age relative production while also profiling as a CF with plus speed?

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

When he puts up the same numbers this year I will understand an 8 prospect rating until then rating don't mean too much.  Ever heard of Victor Robles?

 

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

When he puts up the same numbers this year I will understand an 8 prospect rating until then rating don't mea

Victor Robles is an interesting comparison considering he never even made it to A ball as an 18 year old and then, at 19 years of age, proceeded to put up numbers even more "pedestrian" than Chourio.

If you want to be accurate with the Chourio comparisons, you want to talk about Acuna, Rodriguez, Tatis Jr., etc. That's the statistical company he's in right now. 

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

When he puts up the same numbers this year I will understand an 8 prospect rating until then rating don't mean too much.  Ever heard of Victor Robles?

 

Robles had 32 HR in 1,796 minor league PAs.

Chourio has 25 HR so far in 628 minor league PAs.

Sure, they were both CF ranked in the Top 10, but they are different prospects.

Of course being a highly ranked prospect doesn't guarantee anything, Jackson will have to continue to prove himself as he climbs the ladder. But given what he has accomplished to this point, at an age when most prospects are just graduating high school, the optimism & excitement around him from sources outside of the organization & fanbase doesn't seem out of line to me.

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I would argue Orlando Arcia was just as hyped of a prospect, if not more. 

I don't think they are close. Chourio is touted as a future #1 overall prospect. Arcia was never at that level.

 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

I don't think they are close. Chourio is touted as a future #1 overall prospect. Arcia was never at that level.

 

Already #2 per BA, too.

[Playing Catch]

Both Arcia and Robles were "top" prospects because the scouting community consistently drools over speed and defense even when there are question marks with the bat.  There's nothing that excites them more than a "sure-fire shortstop," or a "future gold glove CFer". This has bothered me for a long time. Arcia may have been hyped within the community of Brewers fans, but he was never a big hype prospect nationally, regardless of where he was ranked. In addition with regard to Arcia, a lot of his prospect value was in having a "projectable frame," a frame which never really filled out to a meaningful degree.

I'm not suggesting that Chourio WILL become an MVP caliber player, because there are a lot of things that could go wrong (his strikeout and whiff rate numbers are a concern), but he's in a different stratosphere as a prospect than Orlando Arcia.