Rumor: Marlins Looking to Trade Pitchers - Should the Brewers Make a Call?

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yikes. BTV sure spits out some weird numbers at times.

I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off.

Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career...

2016: 47 IP
2017: 35 IP
2018: 100 IP
2019: 96 IP
2021: 87 IP
2022: 110 IP

So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108).

Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yikes. BTV sure spits out some weird numbers at times.

I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off.

Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career...

2016: 47 IP
2017: 35 IP
2018: 100 IP
2019: 96 IP
2021: 87 IP
2022: 110 IP

So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108).

Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off.

Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career...

2016: 47 IP
2017: 35 IP
2018: 100 IP
2019: 96 IP
2021: 87 IP
2022: 110 IP

So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108).

Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.

Exactly. ATM, it's pretty close to an even swap. And one that fulfills the needs of both parties. 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off.

Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career...

2016: 47 IP
2017: 35 IP
2018: 100 IP
2019: 96 IP
2021: 87 IP
2022: 110 IP

So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108).

Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.

Exactly. ATM, it's pretty close to an even swap. And one that fulfills the needs of both parties. 

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

I would be down with getting a starter, however my guess is that the Marlins want a lot more then Mitchell for Cabrera. Cabrera was a top 50 prospect and turned in a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts.

Only on one list was he in the top 50. The other lists had him at 69. His peripherals didn't support the 3.01 ERA, and he has a pretty lengthy injury history that probably keeps his value down. He's topped 100 IP twice in his professional career. 100.1 IP in 2018 and 110.1 IP in 2022. There's still a chance he ends up in the bullpen longterm because he can't handle a SP workload.

[jay87shot]

Cabrera has a upper 90s fb, 93 mph change and solid curve and slider. He may have some injury history but so does Mitchell. Again, I would love to to get Cabrera for Mitchell, I just feel like the going rate for a Cabrera type pitcher is 2 Mitchell type players. 

[Brewcrew82]

27 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Cabrera has a upper 90s fb, 93 mph change and solid curve and slider. He may have some injury history but so does Mitchell. Again, I would love to to get Cabrera for Mitchell, I just feel like the going rate for a Cabrera type pitcher is 2 Mitchell type players. 

According to BTV, it's only one Mitchell...BTV isn't the Bible but I think it's pretty accurate that Mitchell and Cabrera are similar value-wise. 

[Jake McKibbin]

Marlins have signed Jonny Cueto so maybe adds to the likelihood of a trade, if not now then mid season (they'd maybe get better value at that point with the added desperation)

[Jake McKibbin]

Marlins have signed Jonny Cueto so maybe adds to the likelihood of a trade, if not now then mid season (they'd maybe get better value at that point with the added desperation)

[jay87shot]

5 hours ago, jakedood said:

Marlins have signed Jonny Cueto so maybe adds to the likelihood of a trade, if not now then mid season (they'd maybe get better value at that point with the added desperation)

Agreed, I would say the Marlins are assured to trade a young starter for a outfielder in the near future. With our current pitching depth I would guess there is a smaller chance it would be with us but maybe. Maybe Arbold can work some 3 team magic and sneak in a steal. Any chance the Marlins could be in on Bryan Reynolds he would make a lot of sense for them if the Pirates are off the Soto sized trade demands.

[jay87shot]

5 hours ago, jakedood said:

Marlins have signed Jonny Cueto so maybe adds to the likelihood of a trade, if not now then mid season (they'd maybe get better value at that point with the added desperation)

Agreed, I would say the Marlins are assured to trade a young starter for a outfielder in the near future. With our current pitching depth I would guess there is a smaller chance it would be with us but maybe. Maybe Arbold can work some 3 team magic and sneak in a steal. Any chance the Marlins could be in on Bryan Reynolds he would make a lot of sense for them if the Pirates are off the Soto sized trade demands.

[Jake McKibbin]

20 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Agreed, I would say the Marlins are assured to trade a young starter for a outfielder in the near future. With our current pitching depth I would guess there is a smaller chance it would be with us but maybe. Maybe Arbold can work some 3 team magic and sneak in a steal. Any chance the Marlins could be in on Bryan Reynolds he would make a lot of sense for them if the Pirates are off the Soto sized trade demands.

If the pirates got a serviceable pitcher that would be a great start for them, and needed

Reynolds may demand Eury Perez though given his service time

[Jake McKibbin]

20 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Agreed, I would say the Marlins are assured to trade a young starter for a outfielder in the near future. With our current pitching depth I would guess there is a smaller chance it would be with us but maybe. Maybe Arbold can work some 3 team magic and sneak in a steal. Any chance the Marlins could be in on Bryan Reynolds he would make a lot of sense for them if the Pirates are off the Soto sized trade demands.

If the pirates got a serviceable pitcher that would be a great start for them, and needed

Reynolds may demand Eury Perez though given his service time

[Thurston Fluff]

Getting a starter who is under control of 4+ years would be a smart move this year. We could trade Lauer this season and still be set up for the eventual departure of Burnes and Woodruff.

[Thurston Fluff]

Getting a starter who is under control of 4+ years would be a smart move this year. We could trade Lauer this season and still be set up for the eventual departure of Burnes and Woodruff.

[DR28]

9 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Getting a starter who is under control of 4+ years would be a smart move this year. We could trade Lauer this season and still be set up for the eventual departure of Burnes and Woodruff.

I know we're for sure losing Corbin but if we're losing Brandon as well, I would rather sign Lauer to extension like Peralta and Ashby received... Trade from our OF depth to acquire someone like Cabrera.

Peralta/Ashby/Cabrera/Lauer is a damn good start to a rotation.

[DR28]

9 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Getting a starter who is under control of 4+ years would be a smart move this year. We could trade Lauer this season and still be set up for the eventual departure of Burnes and Woodruff.

I know we're for sure losing Corbin but if we're losing Brandon as well, I would rather sign Lauer to extension like Peralta and Ashby received... Trade from our OF depth to acquire someone like Cabrera.

Peralta/Ashby/Cabrera/Lauer is a damn good start to a rotation.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

I know we're for sure losing Corbin but if we're losing Brandon as well, I would rather sign Lauer to extension like Peralta and Ashby received... Trade from our OF depth to acquire someone like Cabrera.

Peralta/Ashby/Cabrera/Lauer is a damn good start to a rotation.

Lauer has been kind of critical of the way the team operates and doesn't strike me as the type of player that ages well. I don't think he's going to sign a team friendly deal and I don't think he's the type that will play up to the value he'll get as a free agent.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

I know we're for sure losing Corbin but if we're losing Brandon as well, I would rather sign Lauer to extension like Peralta and Ashby received... Trade from our OF depth to acquire someone like Cabrera.

Peralta/Ashby/Cabrera/Lauer is a damn good start to a rotation.

Lauer has been kind of critical of the way the team operates and doesn't strike me as the type of player that ages well. I don't think he's going to sign a team friendly deal and I don't think he's the type that will play up to the value he'll get as a free agent.

[brewmann04]

We have control of the big two for two years. I think both stay with the Crew this year unless this team falls apart. 

[brewmann04]

We have control of the big two for two years. I think both stay with the Crew this year unless this team falls apart. 

[brewcrewdue80]

16 hours ago, DR28 said:

I know we're for sure losing Corbin but if we're losing Brandon as well, I would rather sign Lauer to extension like Peralta and Ashby received... Trade from our OF depth to acquire someone like Cabrera.

Peralta/Ashby/Cabrera/Lauer is a damn good start to a rotation.

Lauer isn't a #1-2 type pitcher. He's posting #3 numbers while carrying scary #4-5 Fip numbers. He gave up 27HRs last season and the HRs aren't coming from nowhere. Just another average year 1.3HRs/9. I think the fact he's left handed is where he outperforms his expected Fip/ERA. He's useful til he's not. Definitely not worth an extension. Think about it. Nobody clamor that he should pitch from the bullpen. He doesn't have a plus pitch to his name. 

Looking it up and didn't realize not only are Burnes, Woodruff, &Lauer FAs after 2 seasons but so is Houser.  That does bring merit towards adding a Cabrera or Braxton Garrett to the staff. Not an offseason move that makes sense for Milw but mid-season or next offseason.

[brewcrewdue80]

16 hours ago, DR28 said:

I know we're for sure losing Corbin but if we're losing Brandon as well, I would rather sign Lauer to extension like Peralta and Ashby received... Trade from our OF depth to acquire someone like Cabrera.

Peralta/Ashby/Cabrera/Lauer is a damn good start to a rotation.

Lauer isn't a #1-2 type pitcher. He's posting #3 numbers while carrying scary #4-5 Fip numbers. He gave up 27HRs last season and the HRs aren't coming from nowhere. Just another average year 1.3HRs/9. I think the fact he's left handed is where he outperforms his expected Fip/ERA. He's useful til he's not. Definitely not worth an extension. Think about it. Nobody clamor that he should pitch from the bullpen. He doesn't have a plus pitch to his name. 

Looking it up and didn't realize not only are Burnes, Woodruff, &Lauer FAs after 2 seasons but so is Houser.  That does bring merit towards adding a Cabrera or Braxton Garrett to the staff. Not an offseason move that makes sense for Milw but mid-season or next offseason.

[wallus]

Saw a rumor of Pablo Lopez for Max Kepler. Lopez would be a good add to our rotation 

[DR28]

25 minutes ago, wallus said:

Saw a rumor of Pablo Lopez for Max Kepler. Lopez would be a good add to our rotation 

I would totally do Lopez for Mitchell... May need to to add more on our side tho.

Pablo would be under control until thru 2024 season and I bet we would be able to extend him unlike Burnes and Woodruff.

Peralta

Ashby

Lopez

I can get behind that trio!