Brewers sign Wade Miley

[DR28]

36 minutes ago, Under the Roof said:

Crew likes to trade from strength (surplus).  I could see Houser OR Lauer plus a young outfielder (Je Von Ward??) for a young controllable stud 3rd Baseman plus a few pitching prospects.

Don’t know who that 3rd Baseman is.

We're gonna need to give up more than that for young stud 3B.

[monty57]

19 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Houser and Ashby started 146/162 (90%) of games.

Alexander (11 GS) got most of the remaining 10% with Small (2 GS), Chi Chi (2 GS) and Bush (1 GS) making spot starts.

Injuries appear to have impacted the quality of starts more so than the quantity with Houser (77 to 117 ERA-), Peralta (67 to 88 ERA-), Lauer (76 to 91 ERA-), Woodruff (61 to 75 ERA-) and Burnes (58 to 73 ERA-) all seeing their ERA- increase by fourteen to forty percent from 2021 to 2022.

Thank you for those numbers. It plays into my statement about wanting as many starts as possible to go to our "big 3" starters rather than doing a six man rotation. Woodruff and Peralta lost a lot of starts to injury, some of which went to Houser (117 ERA-) and Ashby (110 ERA-). That cost us enough games to miss the playoffs, even if the Alexander, Chi Chi, Small, and Bush starts aren't considered.

Even though Houser and Ashby are regular starters, they aren't nearly as good as our top three guys (hopefully Ashby can get there but he's not there yet). Injuries happen, but if everyone is healthy, I want Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta starting on a regular 5-day schedule. The extra 15-20 starts that would go to a 110-120 ERA- guy instead of a 70-80 ERA- guy could be the difference as to whether we win the division or not.

I think there's a decent chance that Houser and Ashby both start in the 'pen. Houser did enough last year to lose his rotation spot, and the Brewers my want Ashby to get more reps against MLB hitters. I'd like to see what Ashby can do in the rotation, but right at this moment, he and Houser look to be the odd men out, and could start the season as multi-inning relievers.

[DR28]

10 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Thank you for those numbers. It plays into my statement about wanting as many starts as possible to go to our "big 3" starters rather than doing a six man rotation. Woodruff and Peralta lost a lot of starts to injury, some of which went to Houser (117 ERA-) and Ashby (110 ERA-). That cost us enough games to miss the playoffs, even if the Alexander, Chi Chi, Small, and Bush starts aren't considered.

Even though Houser and Ashby are regular starters, they aren't nearly as good as our top three guys (hopefully Ashby can get there but he's not there yet). Injuries happen, but if everyone is healthy, I want Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta starting on a regular 5-day schedule. The extra 15-20 starts that would go to a 110-120 ERA- guy instead of a 70-80 ERA- guy could be the difference as to whether we win the division or not.

I think there's a decent chance that Houser and Ashby both start in the 'pen. Houser did enough last year to lose his rotation spot, and the Brewers my want Ashby to get more reps against MLB hitters. I'd like to see what Ashby can do in the rotation, but right at this moment, he and Houser look to be the odd men out, and could start the season as multi-inning relievers.

I sure hope not in regards to Ashby, we gave him that extension to be a starter for many years to come... Dude has filthy stuff and ace potential.

I see Ashby and TT as major breakthrough guys this year... I say TT because of something I posted in another thread.

[owbc]

59 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Houser and Ashby started 146/162 (90%) of games.

Alexander (11 GS) got most of the remaining 10% with Small (2 GS), Chi Chi (2 GS) and Bush (1 GS) making spot starts.

Injuries appear to have impacted the quality of starts more so than the quantity with Houser (77 to 117 ERA-), Peralta (67 to 88 ERA-), Lauer (76 to 91 ERA-), Woodruff (61 to 75 ERA-) and Burnes (58 to 73 ERA-) all seeing their ERA- increase by fourteen to forty percent from 2021 to 2022.

That's 16 starts too many, and the worst part is that most of them were in the second half of the season when we desperately needed wins. Alexander doesn't belong on a major league roster. In an ideal world, Houser should have been booted from the rotation due to his poor performance. The rotation was a serious liability in the second half and was a big reason we missed the playoffs. When guys are injured or not performing you have to have the arms to swap in and that's where Miley provides a ton of value as a depth option. He's a massive upgrade over Alexander and these other guys. 

 

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Quote

Yeah. OK, well, uh, we found, uh, this mouse in a bottle of YOUR BEER, eh. 

Forget dumb and dumber... Suter should've done the original!

[monty57]

2 hours ago, DR28 said:

I sure hope not in regards to Ashby, we gave him that extension to be a starter for many years to come... Dude has filthy stuff and ace potential.

I see Ashby and TT as major breakthrough guys this year... I say TT because of something I posted in another thread.

I'd say that they gave him the extension for cost certainty and gain a couple years' of service time through team options so if he lives up to potential then they will retain his rights. If not, then they won't exercise the options and the contract wasn't too expensive.

The hope is that he can be a good starting pitcher, meaning that they got a serious discount. If he ends up "only" being a reliever, then he'll be fairly paid through the contract, and if he's a dud or gets injured, they're only out $20M.

He will obviously have the most value if he becomes a solid starter, and he should be given that shot. He's going to be paid the same wherever they use him, so if they feel that he will develop better by starting in the pen, then they have the option of starting him there. He pitched 88 innings as a starter last year, where he posted a 4.81 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 3.50 xFIP. In 19.1 innings as a reliever, he posted a 2.79 ERA, 1.97 FIP, 2.36 xFIP. I definitely want to see him as a starter, but they may think he needs some more "seasoning" as a reliever, so they signed Miley to allow Ashby to spend some time in the 'pen until he's ready for the rotation.

Barring further moves, here's where I see things:

 The "Big three" are obviously #1-3 in the rotation.

Lauer has been a good pitcher, who would probably fight for the #1 spot in a number of rotations in the league. He should be locked in as the #4.

That leaves Houser, Ashby and Miley for the final spot (unless you go six-man, and I've already discussed why I don't want that). It appears that Miley was signed to be a starter, but that probably isn't set in stone.

That would mean that Ashby and Houser are the odd men out at this point in time. In years past, the Brewers had some success by having a few multi-inning guys in the 'pen, so until something else changes, I'd think that would be where Ashby and Houser should be penciled in right now. These guys would pitch 2-3 innings a few times/week, and would be first in line to get starts when someone goes down. 

After Houser's down 2021, they could also look at him and think he's better suited to the 'pen long term, and try him out as a late-inning setup guy. He probably wouldn't like that, as it would destroy his value as he's nearing free agency, but that may be where he ends up. Of course, being the last in line could mean he gets traded while he still has "starter value."

If any of these guys could be sent to the minors, it would make things easier. As it is, "too much" starting pitching is a good problem to have, and I would guess that the Brewers have a plan for them.

[StearnsFTW]

17 hours ago, Robocaller said:

you needed to put that in a colored font.

Or just kept it to yourself.

[Robocaller]

6 hours ago, DR28 said:

We're gonna need to give up more than that for young stud 3B.

Some teams would consider Lauer a stud SP.

[Lathund]

The discussions along the lines of "This must mean X trade or Y happening" are natural, but always a bit premature. We might have 7 starters who will be on the opening day roster (Plus a few more optioned to AAA) as it stands now. But someone will get injured already in ST, there will pretty much always be injuries to 1-2 of them at any one point in the season etc. You can easily keep at least one guy stretched out even from the 'pen too, ready to step in. 

I don't expect them to run a full 6-man rotation, but I think they will try to stick to pitching every 6th day quite a lot of the time. Meaning they'll use the off days not to skip starts, but to give an extra day of rest to everyone. And in those 15-20 game stretches with no off days, that's where they'll use a 6th starter. They might also not use this for everyone, perhaps they'll skip or delay some Peralta starts in particular to avoid the shoulder fatigue issues he's been having, but might keep Burnes/Woody on a more typical schedule. Perhaps they'll use one of their "starters" to piggyback occasionally to give regular but somewhat shorter starts to some. Miley/Peralta piggyback is quite the contrast for the hitters to handle. 

[SF70]

Adding Miley not only allows for a 5 rest day strategy but improves the bullpen by adding another starter arm that can pitch multiple-inning stints that help keep the bullpen fresh and rested. 

Going-back to the 5 rest day strategy will give the starters the strength to go an extra inning occasionally, also helping to keep the bullpen more rested.

This pitching staff is as deep as I’ve ever seen from this team. If they can add a veteran LH backender I’ll stack the staff up with any in the game.

[brewmann04]

I think Houser can be a good set up guy and think Lauer will get the most for a trade possibility

[monty57]

Looking at Lauer's numbers, he's pretty significantly outpitched his FIP the past two years (3.19 & 3.69 ERA vs 4.04 & 4.50 FIP). Steamer projects him to post a 4.30 ERA and 4.42 FIP in '23.

I expect him to be locked into the #4 spot in the rotation, but if Steamer is correct, he may be a regression candidate, and it might be a really good time to trade him while his value is at a high.

[Sweaty]

23 hours ago, monty57 said:

Lauer has been a good pitcher, who would probably fight for the #1 spot in a number of rotations in the league. He should be locked in as the #4.

And those rotations would be for teams that aren't looking to finish above .500.

[owbc]

3 hours ago, Sweaty said:

And those rotations would be for teams that aren't looking to finish above .500.

Yeah a 4.50 FIP isn't good enough to crack the rotation of some of the better pitching staffs in the league. 

If you give his actual performance the benefit of the doubt, he's a solid #4/#5 on a playoff contender. Which is what our plan for him is. 

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, SF70 said:

Adding Miley not only allows for a 5 rest day strategy but improves the bullpen by adding another starter arm that can pitch multiple-inning stints that help keep the bullpen fresh and rested. 

Going-back to the 5 rest day strategy will give the starters the strength to go an extra inning occasionally, also helping to keep the bullpen more rested.

This pitching staff is as deep as I’ve ever seen from this team. If they can add a veteran LH backender I’ll stack the staff up with any in the game.

You had me agreeing with you until the last paragraph. The rotation is deep, but the bullpen has only one proven and reliable pitcher.

[SF70]

40 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

You had me agreeing with you until the last paragraph. The rotation is deep, but the bullpen has only one proven and reliable pitcher.

They have enough arms gathered to have a tremendous bullpen even without adding another veteran LH. They’ll have multiple starter arms, and a couple of boatloads of stuff-arms from which a few will breakout joining Strez, Bush and Williams to form a dynamic bullpen. 

That’s not even including Gasser and Small, who both could impact the second-half bullpen.

Proven and reliable can just happen when you have the numbers of arm talent that this team has. Think Devin Williams back in 2020.

[brewmann04]

Small has control issues that need to be fixed. Gasser is an unknown they really need to add to the pen like to see Alex Reyes if healthy 

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, SF70 said:

They have enough arms gathered to have a tremendous bullpen even without adding another veteran LH. They’ll have multiple starter arms, and a couple of boatloads of stuff-arms from which a few will breakout joining Strez, Bush and Williams to form a dynamic bullpen. 

That’s not even including Gasser and Small, who both could impact the second-half bullpen.

Proven and reliable can just happen when you have the numbers of arm talent that this team has. Think Devin Williams back in 2020.

Those other guys we're hoping to fill out the bullpen aren't Devin Williams. They're more like Angel Perdomo after the 2021 season (reason to hope, reason to fear).

And we didn't have to count on Williams to be the setup guy when he first came up.

They badly need someone who can pitch in the 8th and give Williams a break if he's closed a few games in a row (or has to take a break for a minor injury). It's possible one (or even two) of the guys on the roster can do that, but the chance of identifying that guy on O.D. is small. Our bullpen now is worse than it was AFTER the Hader trade. It is not the bullpen of a contender.

Quality trumps quantity.

[SF70]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Those other guys we're hoping to fill out the bullpen aren't Devin Williams. They're more like Angel Perdomo after the 2021 season (reason to hope, reason to fear).

And we didn't have to count on Williams to be the setup guy when he first came up.

They badly need someone who can pitch in the 8th and give Williams a break if he's closed a few games in a row (or has to take a break for a minor injury). It's possible one (or even two) of the guys on the roster can do that, but the chance of identifying that guy on O.D. is small. Our bullpen now is worse than it was AFTER the Hader trade. It is not the bullpen of a contender.

Quality trumps quantity.

I will admit the veteran addition, preferably LH that I want, would help the early season pen until the inevitable breakouts occur, but if they don’t bring in that arm, this team has the numbers to make for a strong and deep bullpen.

The team has way more options this year over last year, like quadruple the options.

Topa has had a full offseason to get stronger past his flexor surgery, Same with Cousins having the offseason to build-up arm strength. Milner has proven the last 2 years to be an effective LH in HL situations. Bush has the power arsenal and late inning experience. Strez, impressed the team enough to be in the mix for late innings work.

And that doesn’t even include the stuff-arms they brought in this offseason or the prospects like Uribe, Middendorf, Robinson, Yeager, Seminaris or Casteneda if they turn him into a reliever to take advantage of his splitter.

Guerra, Peguero, Varland all throw hard enough to dominate if they can command. 

Then we have the starter arms from the rotation depth — At least 1, maybe 2 of Houser, Ashby should bullpen early on, with Wilson possibly as well. Then there’s Small (if he’s back to strike-throwing) and Gasser post S2.

Im sure I’m leaving out more pen options due to doing this post off memory, but that’s more arms gathered than we’ve ever had before imo, and off those numbers will come a deep and strong bullpen.

[Robocaller]

18 hours ago, SF70 said:

The team has way more options this year over last year, like quadruple the options.

And fewer pitchers you can count on. Quantity of crap doesn't trump quality, unless very unlikely things happen.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

And fewer pitchers you can count on. Quantity of crap doesn't trump quality, unless very unlikely things happen.

Who is crap?  Define a crappy MLB pitcher.

[Robocaller]

8 hours ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Who is crap?  Define a crappy MLB pitcher.

For a very low, arbitrary threshold: a guy who has never had a full season in the majors with an ERA of under 4,  or at least multiple years (and a career total) of under 5.  Some of those guys will be crappy, too, I don't care if someone threw a 98 mph fastball once, if he never produced.

We have Williams, Payamps, Milner, Strzelecki, and Bush, though confidence going forward isn't great on those last four (lack of track record or injury history). Cousins might qualify if he's physically sound, though he's never had a full year in the majors. We only have one with a track record of pitching the 8th or 9th inning; that's our biggest limitation. I'd be OK with the bullpen if we signed a reliable 8/9th inning guy.

 

 

[markedman5]