Rumor: Rafael Devers seeking $300m extension - Is an Adames Extension Even a Realistic Possibility?

[Robocaller]

  On 1/5/2023 at 10:03 PM, MrTPlush said:

Swanson is a better comp, and honestly, a pretty darn good one.

Comping Wily Adames to Rafael Devers feels like borderline clickbait. Adames is older, farther from FA, and is nowhere near being on the same planet as Devers offensively. Devers has posted a .900+ OPS before and has been an upper .800 OPS bat the last two years. Devers is a proven elite bat, Adames couldn't post a .300 OBP last year and has been very inconsistent over his career. 

Adames simply does not have the track record nor the elite offensive ceiling that commands these big contracts. 

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If you mean more than 4 years and more than $30M per year, I agree. If you mean more than $20M per year, I don't. 

[Robocaller]

  On 1/5/2023 at 10:19 PM, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I hope the Brewers sign no one for more than 3-4 years.  Yelich and Braun and even Lo Cain are examples A, B, and C.  

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I hope they always have 2-3 guys on their roster who are currently under 4+ year contracts. The trick is signing the right guy.  But they probably shouldn't sign a guy who was injured at the end of the year, a steroid user, or give a 32 year-old guy a 5 year contract. I don't even consider Braun and Cain's contract a problem. Yelich has become an albatross. 

 

[Robocaller]

  On 1/5/2023 at 10:19 PM, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I hope the Brewers sign no one for more than 3-4 years.  Yelich and Braun and even Lo Cain are examples A, B, and C.  

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I hope they always have 2-3 guys on their roster who are currently under 4+ year contracts. The trick is signing the right guy.  But they probably shouldn't sign a guy who was injured at the end of the year, a steroid user, or give a 32 year-old guy a 5 year contract. I don't even consider Braun and Cain's contract a problem. Yelich has become an albatross. 

 

[MrTPlush]

  On 1/6/2023 at 12:02 AM, Robocaller said:

If you mean more than 4 years and more than $30M per year, I agree. If you mean more than $20M per year, I don't. 

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Wily Adames would get $20mil a year on an extension. Not sure he could command Swanson’s per year average of $25mil. For all the flak Swanson gets about his offensive track record, Adames is arguably no better in the consistency department. 

Maybe the Brewers would give him a higher AAV to hopefully shorten the contract and not pay him $20mil+ at 35 years old. If you gave him 7 years right now it would only go through his age 33 season. If he wants to cover his two arby years plus the 7 FA years Swanson got, no way it would be reasonable for him to get $25mil+. 
 

Adames has two years to up his value, but that is on him. He can risk it and try to be worth $30mil+…but he also could pull a Baez. Lucky for Baez he had a bounce back year to trick the Tigers into thinking he was actually good again. Still a far cry from what he could have had from the Cubs long ago.

[MrTPlush]

  On 1/6/2023 at 12:02 AM, Robocaller said:

If you mean more than 4 years and more than $30M per year, I agree. If you mean more than $20M per year, I don't. 

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Wily Adames would get $20mil a year on an extension. Not sure he could command Swanson’s per year average of $25mil. For all the flak Swanson gets about his offensive track record, Adames is arguably no better in the consistency department. 

Maybe the Brewers would give him a higher AAV to hopefully shorten the contract and not pay him $20mil+ at 35 years old. If you gave him 7 years right now it would only go through his age 33 season. If he wants to cover his two arby years plus the 7 FA years Swanson got, no way it would be reasonable for him to get $25mil+. 
 

Adames has two years to up his value, but that is on him. He can risk it and try to be worth $30mil+…but he also could pull a Baez. Lucky for Baez he had a bounce back year to trick the Tigers into thinking he was actually good again. Still a far cry from what he could have had from the Cubs long ago.

[brewcrewdue80]

  On 1/4/2023 at 10:26 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Holy balls. That's a terrifying number for someone of Devers' ability. He just isn't that good.

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Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. 

Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) 

Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get.

Side note:

I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did.  What an impact that could have been.

 

 

[brewcrewdue80]

  On 1/4/2023 at 10:26 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Holy balls. That's a terrifying number for someone of Devers' ability. He just isn't that good.

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Devers bat is Elite. This is Josh Donaldson while in prime territory. He's younger than Adames while playing longer than Adames has. There is the DH for Devers' bat skills to maintain that contract value. 

Adames meanwhile value is from the defense and bat production for SS position. His future bat production wouldn't be carried in the DH position. Devers contract should have near 0 relation to what Adames contract would look like. The bat profile is so far behind. Add the age with added team control extension to same age is 8years beyond. Adames is a defense first so lop off 2 years as age decline will affect him more. (Sooner than Devers) 

Think I posted somewhere 8/175 similar to what Swanson got as the best comp you could get.

Side note:

I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did.  What an impact that could have been.

 

 

[TURBO]

  On 1/7/2023 at 6:15 AM, brewcrewdue80 said:

I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did.  What an impact that could have been.

 

 

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Wasn't me...

[TURBO]

  On 1/7/2023 at 6:15 AM, brewcrewdue80 said:

I remember a poster here who was all in on getting Devers I think when he was 19/20. (Probably around Travis Shaw trade time) Turbo or Nate or maybe the one who said they would leave and did.  What an impact that could have been.

 

 

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Wasn't me...

[jerichoholicninja]

Am the only one who would prefer not to sign him to an extension? He just doesn't seem like the kind of player you want to lock in until their mid-30's.

[jerichoholicninja]

Am the only one who would prefer not to sign him to an extension? He just doesn't seem like the kind of player you want to lock in until their mid-30's.

[DR28]

I think the Correa deal is more inline for Adames... I would be down for 6 years, $160-$190 M.

[DR28]

I think the Correa deal is more inline for Adames... I would be down for 6 years, $160-$190 M.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

  On 1/6/2023 at 12:08 AM, Robocaller said:

I hope they always have 2-3 guys on their roster who are currently under 4+ year contracts. The trick is signing the right guy.  But they probably shouldn't sign a guy who was injured at the end of the year, a steroid user, or give a 32 year-old guy a 5 year contract. I don't even consider Braun and Cain's contract a problem. Yelich has become an albatross. 

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Cain's contract is why the Brewers traded Hader and signed McCutchen.  Cain's contract alone was $15 million dollars and McCutchen was $8 million so yeah, the Brewers spent $23 million for a part time outfielder last year.  That did limit the Brewers signing of free agents last year and forced the FO to focus on cheap ways of lowering the team salary.  In the end it cost the Milwaukee Brewers the playoffs and trading away a season and a half of Hader, that is a pretty big deal.  The front office shouldn't sign anyone to more than 2-3 years with options.  That way if a player should play below his contract the Brewers will be free of any long term problems.  I seriously hope all of MLB looks into the way contracts are written.  Nothing wrong with writing in option years after a short term contract, force those players to earn that money. 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

  On 1/6/2023 at 12:08 AM, Robocaller said:

I hope they always have 2-3 guys on their roster who are currently under 4+ year contracts. The trick is signing the right guy.  But they probably shouldn't sign a guy who was injured at the end of the year, a steroid user, or give a 32 year-old guy a 5 year contract. I don't even consider Braun and Cain's contract a problem. Yelich has become an albatross. 

Expand  

Cain's contract is why the Brewers traded Hader and signed McCutchen.  Cain's contract alone was $15 million dollars and McCutchen was $8 million so yeah, the Brewers spent $23 million for a part time outfielder last year.  That did limit the Brewers signing of free agents last year and forced the FO to focus on cheap ways of lowering the team salary.  In the end it cost the Milwaukee Brewers the playoffs and trading away a season and a half of Hader, that is a pretty big deal.  The front office shouldn't sign anyone to more than 2-3 years with options.  That way if a player should play below his contract the Brewers will be free of any long term problems.  I seriously hope all of MLB looks into the way contracts are written.  Nothing wrong with writing in option years after a short term contract, force those players to earn that money. 

[Robocaller]

  On 1/10/2023 at 7:14 PM, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Cain's contract is why the Brewers traded Hader and signed McCutchen.  Cain's contract alone was $15 million dollars and McCutchen was $8 million so yeah, the Brewers spent $23 million for a part time outfielder last year.  That did limit the Brewers signing of free agents last year and forced the FO to focus on cheap ways of lowering the team salary.  In the end it cost the Milwaukee Brewers the playoffs and trading away a season and a half of Hader, that is a pretty big deal.  The front office shouldn't sign anyone to more than 2-3 years with options.  That way if a player should play below his contract the Brewers will be free of any long term problems.  I seriously hope all of MLB looks into the way contracts are written.  Nothing wrong with writing in option years after a short term contract, force those players to earn that money. 

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Long-term contracts aren't set up to pay the player what he is worth each year. If they were, they'd be heavily incentive-laden (to an extent that the players' union probably doesn't allow).  So, if a guy is making $16M in the last year, it functionally is (partially) deferred money that would have needed to be added to a shorter term contract. So the guy signs a 4 year $64M rather than a 3 year $57M contract.  This is particularly true the longer the contract (6+ years), where the club knows it will be overpaying the last year or three.

 

[Robocaller]

  On 1/10/2023 at 7:14 PM, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Cain's contract is why the Brewers traded Hader and signed McCutchen.  Cain's contract alone was $15 million dollars and McCutchen was $8 million so yeah, the Brewers spent $23 million for a part time outfielder last year.  That did limit the Brewers signing of free agents last year and forced the FO to focus on cheap ways of lowering the team salary.  In the end it cost the Milwaukee Brewers the playoffs and trading away a season and a half of Hader, that is a pretty big deal.  The front office shouldn't sign anyone to more than 2-3 years with options.  That way if a player should play below his contract the Brewers will be free of any long term problems.  I seriously hope all of MLB looks into the way contracts are written.  Nothing wrong with writing in option years after a short term contract, force those players to earn that money. 

Expand  

Long-term contracts aren't set up to pay the player what he is worth each year. If they were, they'd be heavily incentive-laden (to an extent that the players' union probably doesn't allow).  So, if a guy is making $16M in the last year, it functionally is (partially) deferred money that would have needed to be added to a shorter term contract. So the guy signs a 4 year $64M rather than a 3 year $57M contract.  This is particularly true the longer the contract (6+ years), where the club knows it will be overpaying the last year or three.

 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

  On 1/10/2023 at 8:31 PM, Robocaller said:

Long-term contracts aren't set up to pay the player what he is worth each year. If they were, they'd be heavily incentive-laden (to an extent that the players' union probably doesn't allow).  So, if a guy is making $16M in the last year, it functionally is (partially) deferred money that would have needed to be added to a shorter term contract. So the guy signs a 4 year $64M rather than a 3 year $57M contract.  This is particularly true the longer the contract (6+ years), where the club knows it will be overpaying the last year or three.

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 You think Raphael Devers is worth more than $30 million a year?  You can't be serious.  With what you just said the Red Sox have signed him not to a 11 year deal but more likely 7/8 with 3 years deferred money.  We are going to have to agree to disagree.  We are getting off subject.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

  On 1/10/2023 at 8:31 PM, Robocaller said:

Long-term contracts aren't set up to pay the player what he is worth each year. If they were, they'd be heavily incentive-laden (to an extent that the players' union probably doesn't allow).  So, if a guy is making $16M in the last year, it functionally is (partially) deferred money that would have needed to be added to a shorter term contract. So the guy signs a 4 year $64M rather than a 3 year $57M contract.  This is particularly true the longer the contract (6+ years), where the club knows it will be overpaying the last year or three.

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 You think Raphael Devers is worth more than $30 million a year?  You can't be serious.  With what you just said the Red Sox have signed him not to a 11 year deal but more likely 7/8 with 3 years deferred money.  We are going to have to agree to disagree.  We are getting off subject.

[Lloyd330]

Devers is a top 20 MLB hitter right now and probably 3rd best 3B behind Ramirez and Riley and still young enough to improve. 

 

[Lloyd330]

Devers is a top 20 MLB hitter right now and probably 3rd best 3B behind Ramirez and Riley and still young enough to improve. 

 

[brewcrewdue80]

  On 1/10/2023 at 7:14 PM, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Cain's contract is why the Brewers traded Hader and signed McCutchen.  Cain's contract alone was $15 million dollars and McCutchen was $8 million so yeah, the Brewers spent $23 million for a part time outfielder last year.  That did limit the Brewers signing of free agents last year and forced the FO to focus on cheap ways of lowering the team salary.  In the end it cost the Milwaukee Brewers the playoffs and trading away a season and a half of Hader, that is a pretty big deal.  The front office shouldn't sign anyone to more than 2-3 years with options.  That way if a player should play below his contract the Brewers will be free of any long term problems.  I seriously hope all of MLB looks into the way contracts are written.  Nothing wrong with writing in option years after a short term contract, force those players to earn that money. 

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Cain had a great first 2 seasons. 2020 happened and I think based how he played out 21-22 that he became more invested in his kids and family than really caring about baseball. Players and stats in this 2020-2024 window we're in just come with an asterisk. There was the lockout last offseason. Minors didn't play a game in 2020. 

Think some of what we've seen with Free Agency this offseason is closer return to business as normal.  

The team if possible should still sign a future Cain deal when the right opportunity appears. What happened last season is an after effect of 2020. Unfortunately continues with how often a good Brewer team is stricken with bad luck.

[brewcrewdue80]

  On 1/10/2023 at 7:14 PM, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

Cain's contract is why the Brewers traded Hader and signed McCutchen.  Cain's contract alone was $15 million dollars and McCutchen was $8 million so yeah, the Brewers spent $23 million for a part time outfielder last year.  That did limit the Brewers signing of free agents last year and forced the FO to focus on cheap ways of lowering the team salary.  In the end it cost the Milwaukee Brewers the playoffs and trading away a season and a half of Hader, that is a pretty big deal.  The front office shouldn't sign anyone to more than 2-3 years with options.  That way if a player should play below his contract the Brewers will be free of any long term problems.  I seriously hope all of MLB looks into the way contracts are written.  Nothing wrong with writing in option years after a short term contract, force those players to earn that money. 

Expand  

Cain had a great first 2 seasons. 2020 happened and I think based how he played out 21-22 that he became more invested in his kids and family than really caring about baseball. Players and stats in this 2020-2024 window we're in just come with an asterisk. There was the lockout last offseason. Minors didn't play a game in 2020. 

Think some of what we've seen with Free Agency this offseason is closer return to business as normal.  

The team if possible should still sign a future Cain deal when the right opportunity appears. What happened last season is an after effect of 2020. Unfortunately continues with how often a good Brewer team is stricken with bad luck.

[MrTPlush]

  On 1/10/2023 at 7:03 PM, DR28 said:

I think the Correa deal is more inline for Adames... I would be down for 6 years, $160-$190 M.

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I am relieved we can't afford to hand Adames $190mil. 

I would have to pandemic hoard popcorn to watch that unfold over the years. 

[MrTPlush]

  On 1/10/2023 at 7:03 PM, DR28 said:

I think the Correa deal is more inline for Adames... I would be down for 6 years, $160-$190 M.

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I am relieved we can't afford to hand Adames $190mil. 

I would have to pandemic hoard popcorn to watch that unfold over the years.