Rumor: Rafael Devers seeking $300m extension - Is an Adames Extension Even a Realistic Possibility?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Of course, Rafael Devers asking for $300m is quite different from Rafael Devers getting $300m from the Red Sox but it's an alarming ask as the Brewers look to extend one of Adames, Burnes, or Woodruff.

Devers and Willy Adames are actually really good comps. Through five seasons, Adames has posted a 15.1 bWAR while through six seasons, Devers has posted a 15.2 bWAR. The two players posted an identical 4.4 bWAR in 2022. Devers has the advantage in career OPS+ - 124 to Adames' 111 number - but Adames has the defensive advantage of being a good shortstop.

Devers has both the age and service time advantage, though, which drives up his price a fair amount. He's one year younger than Adames and one year closer to free agency - 2023 is his final arbitration year so he can almost taste free agency in these negotiations.

If Devers actually receives anything close to $300m from the Red Sox - let's say $250m+ - does that take an Adames extension off the table for the Brewers?

View full rumor

[TURBO]

Sadly, I believe it does.

I think Adames is happy in Milwaukee, at least, it sure seems that way.  Can we expect a little bit of a hometown discount?  In today's world, probably not.

I think it would be wise to trade him as soon as we get an offer we can't refuse.  As much as I'd hate to see him go, it's just the way things are.

[TURBO]

Sadly, I believe it does.

I think Adames is happy in Milwaukee, at least, it sure seems that way.  Can we expect a little bit of a hometown discount?  In today's world, probably not.

I think it would be wise to trade him as soon as we get an offer we can't refuse.  As much as I'd hate to see him go, it's just the way things are.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I really like Adames and would really like to keep him a Brewer another 3-4 seasons....but since contract extensions and free agent deals don't work that way in baseball I've just never seen the point of considering a longterm extension for Adames given the years of control they still have on him.  The Brewers can pay him yearly for the next two seasons until he'd reach free agency in 2025 after his 29-yr old season.  Keeping players of Adames' caliber through their prime at a reasonable cost needs to be the Brewers' focus, not looking to identify more veterans to throw longterm money at.

Why throw $250+M at a player well into his 30s who will only diminish in value defensively at SS as he ages, and who is a low-300's OBP player?  I think the Brewers need to pay him what he gets in arbitration for 2023, and potentially explore trading him next offseason before the 2024 season to get some return value and give the SS position to Turang - who also is a very good defensive SS.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I really like Adames and would really like to keep him a Brewer another 3-4 seasons....but since contract extensions and free agent deals don't work that way in baseball I've just never seen the point of considering a longterm extension for Adames given the years of control they still have on him.  The Brewers can pay him yearly for the next two seasons until he'd reach free agency in 2025 after his 29-yr old season.  Keeping players of Adames' caliber through their prime at a reasonable cost needs to be the Brewers' focus, not looking to identify more veterans to throw longterm money at.

Why throw $250+M at a player well into his 30s who will only diminish in value defensively at SS as he ages, and who is a low-300's OBP player?  I think the Brewers need to pay him what he gets in arbitration for 2023, and potentially explore trading him next offseason before the 2024 season to get some return value and give the SS position to Turang - who also is a very good defensive SS.

[Jake McKibbin]

35 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Of course, Rafael Devers asking for $300m is quite different from Rafael Devers getting $300m from the Red Sox but it's an alarming ask as the Brewers look to extend one of Adames, Burnes, or Woodruff.

Devers and Willy Adames are actually really good comps. Through five seasons, Adames has posted a 15.1 bWAR while through six seasons, Dever has posted a 15.2 bWAR. The two players posted an identical 4.4 bWAR in 2022. Devers has the advantage in career OPS+ - 124 to Adames' 111 number - but Adames has the defensive advantage of being a good shortstop.

Devers has both the age and service time advantage, though, which drives up his price a fair amount. He's one year younger than Adames and one year closer to free agency - 2023 is his final arbitration year so he can almost taste free agency in these negotiations.

If Devers actually receives anything close to $300m from the Red Sox - let's say $250m+ - does that take an Adames extension off the table for the Brewers?

 

 

 

View full rumor

 

Could part of this also be a leverage in that the Red Sox fans will bay for blood if Bogaerts, Devers & Betts all left? Surely they need at least one marquee player?

I think for Adames a better comp is the swanson deal, and probably can pay slightly less than this given Swansons performed slightly ahead of Adames last few years, plus 2 Arby years, may be able to get something in the way of 7/8 for 20 per year AAV

 

He's projected to get $9.2m in 23 and $14m in 24, and could maybe do something like 6 years at 23-25 Millions for following years, so a gross contract of 9 + 14 + (24*6) could be a contact of around 8 years $167 Million?

 

I think anything between 160-167 Is acceptable, aprticularly given he's a high energy dude, brings stuff off field and an athletic defender with a Bat that underperformed average wise last year, and I think he's expecting to hit for more Average next few years... He actually did much better in this regard second half of the season, but his eye is troubling with a 5% walk rate post All start break

Maybe second thought, a $155 or so is a better fit with that, unless he shows a better eye at the plate

[Jake McKibbin]

35 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Of course, Rafael Devers asking for $300m is quite different from Rafael Devers getting $300m from the Red Sox but it's an alarming ask as the Brewers look to extend one of Adames, Burnes, or Woodruff.

Devers and Willy Adames are actually really good comps. Through five seasons, Adames has posted a 15.1 bWAR while through six seasons, Dever has posted a 15.2 bWAR. The two players posted an identical 4.4 bWAR in 2022. Devers has the advantage in career OPS+ - 124 to Adames' 111 number - but Adames has the defensive advantage of being a good shortstop.

Devers has both the age and service time advantage, though, which drives up his price a fair amount. He's one year younger than Adames and one year closer to free agency - 2023 is his final arbitration year so he can almost taste free agency in these negotiations.

If Devers actually receives anything close to $300m from the Red Sox - let's say $250m+ - does that take an Adames extension off the table for the Brewers?

 

 

 

View full rumor

 

Could part of this also be a leverage in that the Red Sox fans will bay for blood if Bogaerts, Devers & Betts all left? Surely they need at least one marquee player?

I think for Adames a better comp is the swanson deal, and probably can pay slightly less than this given Swansons performed slightly ahead of Adames last few years, plus 2 Arby years, may be able to get something in the way of 7/8 for 20 per year AAV

 

He's projected to get $9.2m in 23 and $14m in 24, and could maybe do something like 6 years at 23-25 Millions for following years, so a gross contract of 9 + 14 + (24*6) could be a contact of around 8 years $167 Million?

 

I think anything between 160-167 Is acceptable, aprticularly given he's a high energy dude, brings stuff off field and an athletic defender with a Bat that underperformed average wise last year, and I think he's expecting to hit for more Average next few years... He actually did much better in this regard second half of the season, but his eye is troubling with a 5% walk rate post All start break

Maybe second thought, a $155 or so is a better fit with that, unless he shows a better eye at the plate

[TURBO]

27 minutes ago, jakedood said:

I think anything between 160-167 Is acceptable, aprticularly given he's a high energy dude, brings stuff off field and an athletic defender with a Bat that underperformed average wise last year, and I think he's expecting to hit for more Average next few years... He actually did much better in this regard second half of the season, but his eye is troubling with a 5% walk rate post All start break

Maybe second thought, a $155 or so is a better fit with that, unless he shows a better eye at the plate

Given today's market, he won't take that, just don't see it.  I think his agent would laugh at an offer of 155 million.

If he were a free agent now, I can't see him getting less than 200 million.  2 years from now, if these big market GMs keep spending, it will probably be more than that unless he tanks the next 2 seasons.

I think we lost the chance to get him at a good price, the extension should have been offered after the 2021 season, now it's just too late.

[TURBO]

27 minutes ago, jakedood said:

I think anything between 160-167 Is acceptable, aprticularly given he's a high energy dude, brings stuff off field and an athletic defender with a Bat that underperformed average wise last year, and I think he's expecting to hit for more Average next few years... He actually did much better in this regard second half of the season, but his eye is troubling with a 5% walk rate post All start break

Maybe second thought, a $155 or so is a better fit with that, unless he shows a better eye at the plate

Given today's market, he won't take that, just don't see it.  I think his agent would laugh at an offer of 155 million.

If he were a free agent now, I can't see him getting less than 200 million.  2 years from now, if these big market GMs keep spending, it will probably be more than that unless he tanks the next 2 seasons.

I think we lost the chance to get him at a good price, the extension should have been offered after the 2021 season, now it's just too late.

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, TURBO said:

Given today's market, he won't take that, just don't see it.

If he were a free agent now, I can't see him getting less than 200 million.  2 years from now, if these big market GMs keep spending, it will probably be more than that unless he tanks the next 2 seasons.

I think we lost the chance to get him at a good price, the extension should have been offered after the 2021 season, now it's just too late.

So do you think he's worth more than Swanson? I'd certainly say slightly below Swanson is comparable 

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, TURBO said:

Given today's market, he won't take that, just don't see it.

If he were a free agent now, I can't see him getting less than 200 million.  2 years from now, if these big market GMs keep spending, it will probably be more than that unless he tanks the next 2 seasons.

I think we lost the chance to get him at a good price, the extension should have been offered after the 2021 season, now it's just too late.

So do you think he's worth more than Swanson? I'd certainly say slightly below Swanson is comparable 

[Brock Beauchamp]

41 minutes ago, jakedood said:

So do you think he's worth more than Swanson? I'd certainly say slightly below Swanson is comparable 

It really depends how you view Swanson's 2022 season.

In their careers, Swanson has less bWAR in two more seasons than Adames.

If you think Swanson's 2022 was legit, he's probably more valuable than Adames. If you think his 2022 is a career season, Adames is more valuable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

41 minutes ago, jakedood said:

So do you think he's worth more than Swanson? I'd certainly say slightly below Swanson is comparable 

It really depends how you view Swanson's 2022 season.

In their careers, Swanson has less bWAR in two more seasons than Adames.

If you think Swanson's 2022 was legit, he's probably more valuable than Adames. If you think his 2022 is a career season, Adames is more valuable.

[brewmann04]

I don’t think you see the brewers keeping all 3 and not even 2 of the 3

[brewmann04]

I don’t think you see the brewers keeping all 3 and not even 2 of the 3

[wibadgers23]

2 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

I don’t think you see the brewers keeping all 3 and not even 2 of the 3

I think that's pretty much a given in my mind.  The question is can we keep one of them and if so, then who?  My bet would be Woodruff.

[wibadgers23]

2 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

I don’t think you see the brewers keeping all 3 and not even 2 of the 3

I think that's pretty much a given in my mind.  The question is can we keep one of them and if so, then who?  My bet would be Woodruff.

[monty57]

I'm not a fan of signing extensions to players once they're already in their arby years, as it's basically a free agent deal (very little discount) and the Brewers can't build their roster on long-term free agent contracts.

If they are to do one, I think it should be to a game-changer, like Braun and Yelich were when they signed. I think Adames is a fine player, but he's a guy who will get a few All-Star appearances, not a guy who is regularly vying for MVP titles. 

Even if we didn't play in an economic structure that is slanted against us, I'd have to think long and hard about an Adames extension. He has had an up-and-down career, and his replacement is already in-house and MLB ready. Even if the contract were smaller, I think the best bet is to let Adames play for the Brewers this year, and trade him away after the season for a nice group of young players with a lot of team control, letting Turang take over SS in '24. 

If we're looking at anything close to $300M, there is no way the Brewers should consider it. I'd be hesitant to give that to Burnes, and he's far more worthy of that contract.

[monty57]

I'm not a fan of signing extensions to players once they're already in their arby years, as it's basically a free agent deal (very little discount) and the Brewers can't build their roster on long-term free agent contracts.

If they are to do one, I think it should be to a game-changer, like Braun and Yelich were when they signed. I think Adames is a fine player, but he's a guy who will get a few All-Star appearances, not a guy who is regularly vying for MVP titles. 

Even if we didn't play in an economic structure that is slanted against us, I'd have to think long and hard about an Adames extension. He has had an up-and-down career, and his replacement is already in-house and MLB ready. Even if the contract were smaller, I think the best bet is to let Adames play for the Brewers this year, and trade him away after the season for a nice group of young players with a lot of team control, letting Turang take over SS in '24. 

If we're looking at anything close to $300M, there is no way the Brewers should consider it. I'd be hesitant to give that to Burnes, and he's far more worthy of that contract.

[monty57]

9 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

I think that's pretty much a given in my mind.  The question is can we keep one of them and if so, then who?  My bet would be Woodruff.

Agree. If we were to sign one, I would set my sights on Woodruff. But honestly, I don't think we'll extend any of them, and I think that if we do, it won't be long before the "how can we get out of this contract" talks would start.

Burnes' contract will be in the $40-50M annual salary range, so he's out of the discussion. Adames was so-so with the Rays (couldn't hit at Tropicana), had a good partial season once traded to the Brewers, and had 4.7 Fangraphs WAR season in '22, but still ended with an OBP under .300. If he wasn't a Brewer but was a free agent, I doubt people would be clamoring to sign him to a long-term deal for $20-$30M/season.

That leaves Woodruff, who would be great to sign if we could get him for a couple of his free agent years. My concern is that he'll be 31, and will know that it will be his one chance to sign a big money deal. He'll probably want 4-6 years of free agency bought out, and I think that's too risky for the Brewers. A four-year ('23-'26) deal would be perfect, and could fit nicely into a couple of years where they have a lot of pre-arby guys and could afford Woodruff and Yelich on big-money deals, after which guys like Frelick, Mitchell, etc will start getting more expensive.

[monty57]

9 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

I think that's pretty much a given in my mind.  The question is can we keep one of them and if so, then who?  My bet would be Woodruff.

Agree. If we were to sign one, I would set my sights on Woodruff. But honestly, I don't think we'll extend any of them, and I think that if we do, it won't be long before the "how can we get out of this contract" talks would start.

Burnes' contract will be in the $40-50M annual salary range, so he's out of the discussion. Adames was so-so with the Rays (couldn't hit at Tropicana), had a good partial season once traded to the Brewers, and had 4.7 Fangraphs WAR season in '22, but still ended with an OBP under .300. If he wasn't a Brewer but was a free agent, I doubt people would be clamoring to sign him to a long-term deal for $20-$30M/season.

That leaves Woodruff, who would be great to sign if we could get him for a couple of his free agent years. My concern is that he'll be 31, and will know that it will be his one chance to sign a big money deal. He'll probably want 4-6 years of free agency bought out, and I think that's too risky for the Brewers. A four-year ('23-'26) deal would be perfect, and could fit nicely into a couple of years where they have a lot of pre-arby guys and could afford Woodruff and Yelich on big-money deals, after which guys like Frelick, Mitchell, etc will start getting more expensive.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, that'll teach me not to spend the time to cross-check FanGraphs WAR, which I generally find more reliable.

In that regard, Devers has a significant advantage over Adames, 18.1 fWAR to 13.7 fWAR. Still, the comp isn't entirely out of whack, as Devers has played one more season. Add in another Adames season and the gap is probably still there but within shouting distance of one another.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, that'll teach me not to spend the time to cross-check FanGraphs WAR, which I generally find more reliable.

In that regard, Devers has a significant advantage over Adames, 18.1 fWAR to 13.7 fWAR. Still, the comp isn't entirely out of whack, as Devers has played one more season. Add in another Adames season and the gap is probably still there but within shouting distance of one another.

[Thurston Fluff]

If we never give out a $100 million plus deal that goes five years or longer (indexed to inflation) I'm perfectly fine with that. I've accepted we have players for five years then need to trade them a long time ago. I think it's the best way to run a successful small market baseball team. I believe it's not only possible to win a championship that way but it's the best way to do so.

[Thurston Fluff]

If we never give out a $100 million plus deal that goes five years or longer (indexed to inflation) I'm perfectly fine with that. I've accepted we have players for five years then need to trade them a long time ago. I think it's the best way to run a successful small market baseball team. I believe it's not only possible to win a championship that way but it's the best way to do so.