Brewers vs. Cardinals

[Brewcrew82]

Since we have seemingly arrived at the dead point of the offseason (FA is basically done) and with Spring Training still well over a month away, I thought it might be interesting to discuss this article from "Reviewing the Brew", which conducts a position by position comparison of the Brewers and Cardinals in light of their respective offseasons:  https://reviewingthebrew.com/posts/brewers-has-milwaukee-done-enough-so-far-this-offseason-to-surpass-the-cardinals.

They break it down accordingly:

C: advantage Brewers

1B: advantage Cardinals

2B: advantage Cardinals

SS: advantage Brewers

3B: advantage Cardinals

OF: advantage Brewers

DH: advantage Brewers

SP: advantage Brewers

Bullpen: advantage Brewers

Overall, I think this analysis is a tad too rosy from a Brewers perspective. Specifically, I would give the Cardinals the edge in the OF with O'Neil, Carlson, and Nootbar and would probably call the bullpens a tie. Cardinals obviously have significant advantages at 1B and 3B while the Brewers have a sizable advantage at SP. Nevertheless, it's really close, and given that these two teams have alternated first place in the NL Central over the past two seasons, a tight race seems to be the most probable outcome this season....

 

 

[TURBO]

If a Cardinals website did the same exact thing, you know they would come out the winner.  

All depends on who is doing the judging.

In the end, regardless of what anyone thinks, the Cardinals will be our biggest competition for the division, and anyone thinking we are so much better than them has another thing coming.

It will come down to who wins more games.  :)

[bensheeps]

A Cardinal site did (and you're right...they picked St. L)

https://redbirdrants.com/posts/comparing-the-st-louis-cardinals-and-milwaukee-brewers-by-position-group-for-2023-01gnngg4fdbj

Their take:

C = advantage Cards

1b = major advantage Cards

2b = advantage Cards

ss = small advantage Cards

3b = advantage Cards

OF = advantage Cards

DH = advantage Brewers

Starting P = big advantage Brewers

Bullpen = advantage Cards

Final analysis = Cards "are the clear favorites in the National League Central and will win it by a comfortable margin."

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, bensheeps said:

A Cardinal site did (and you're right...they picked St. L)

https://redbirdrants.com/posts/comparing-the-st-louis-cardinals-and-milwaukee-brewers-by-position-group-for-2023-01gnngg4fdbj

Their take:

C = advantage Cards

1b = major advantage Cards

2b = advantage Cards

ss = small advantage Cards

3b = advantage Cards

OF = advantage Cards

DH = advantage Brewers

Starting P = big advantage Brewers

Bullpen = advantage Cards

Final analysis = Cards "are the clear favorites in the National League Central and will win it by a comfortable margin."

So, split the difference between the two homer articles and you have something around 5-4 Cardinals and a very close race due to the Brewers' pitching advantage (projected 15 fWAR vs. 9.7 fWAR)???

Tommy Edman may have put up a 6 WAR season last year, but I don't think many (if any) MLB GMs are taking him over Adames at SS...

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs Depth Charts currently give the Cardinals a projected 4.5 WAR edge at 46.7 for STL vs 42.2 for the Crew…

LINK

Positions break down as…

Ca: (STL 3.3 | MIL 3.3)
1B: (STL 4.5 | MIL 2.4)
2B: (STL 3.6 | MIL 2.4)
SS: (STL 3.7 | MIL 4.0)
3B: (STL 5.5 | MIL 3.0)
OF: (STL 11.0 | MIL 8.1)
DH: (STL 2.1 | MIL 1.3)
SP: (STL 9.7 | MIL 15.0)
RP: (STL 3.3 | MIL 2.7)

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, bensheeps said:

A Cardinal site did (and you're right...they picked St. L)

https://redbirdrants.com/posts/comparing-the-st-louis-cardinals-and-milwaukee-brewers-by-position-group-for-2023-01gnngg4fdbj

Their take:

C = advantage Cards

1b = major advantage Cards

2b = advantage Cards

ss = small advantage Cards

3b = advantage Cards

OF = advantage Cards

DH = advantage Brewers

Starting P = big advantage Brewers

Bullpen = advantage Cards

Final analysis = Cards "are the clear favorites in the National League Central and will win it by a comfortable margin."

That seems the more likely outcome. But the Cards had flukey-good years from a few important (and not young) players; they could have a flukey-bad year. And our rookies (and Winker and Toro) might produce, and Ashby could have his breakthrough year.. So it's not a forgone conclusion at all.

[Jake McKibbin]

I think the biggest reason the Cardinals may struggle is the number of pitchers who performed significantly better once Molina came back in August. Thats from a naked eye sort of test, but bar at the end when Wainwright faded, Quinta, Montgomery, Mikolas all looked to take a step forward and I wonder with Contreras if, even despite the increased offense he'll clearly bring, the Cards staff will struggle a whole lot more, particularly with Flaherty being very very hittable even when he was back last year and significantly down on velo

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

12 hours ago, bensheeps said:

A Cardinal site did (and you're right...they picked St. L)

https://redbirdrants.com/posts/comparing-the-st-louis-cardinals-and-milwaukee-brewers-by-position-group-for-2023-01gnngg4fdbj

Their take:

C = advantage Cards

1b = major advantage Cards

2b = advantage Cards

ss = small advantage Cards

3b = advantage Cards

OF = advantage Cards

DH = advantage Brewers

Starting P = big advantage Brewers

Bullpen = advantage Cards

Final analysis = Cards "are the clear favorites in the National League Central and will win it by a comfortable margin."

That story appears as if it were written by a 12-year-old Cardinals fanboy. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It seems super weird and more than a little nonsensical to break down individual positions but then group "outfield", "starting pitchers", and "bullpen".

The weight of "third base" and "starting pitching" isn't, um... equal.

[sveumrules]

Cardinals ZiPS projections aren’t out yet, but Brewers just dropped today…

LINK

One cool feature that was added this year are 20th/80th percentile outcomes in addition to the median projection to give a little more context to the range of possibilities.

 

[Lathund]

I think the Cardinals still are the better team, but I also think it's really close. Particularly because of how much of the Cardinals success relied on career years. 

Goldschmidt pre-2022: 141 wrC+. 2022 (Age 35): 177 wRC+. .419 wOBA vs .367 xwOBA

Arenado pre-2022: 118 wRC+. 2022 (Age 31): 151 wRC+. .389 wOBA vs .339 xwOBA

That's wRC+ numbers more than 30 points above their career numbers, With underlying numbers suggesting they're pretty much doing the same thing as always. They combined for 14 fWAR this year. Even if they manage to stay completely healthy yet again, 10-11 WAR is far more realistic. 

Then there's Pujols. Age 32-41 (Angels contract years): 105 wRC+. Age 37-41: 84 wRC+. 2022: 151 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR.  He obviously won't be there at all. 

Someone like Edman is also never repeating that kind of WAR totals, either on offense or defense. Despite being a very good defender, he's not repeating that. Defensive numbers are wonky in small samples, and he basically racked up huge totals in the first few months, and then treaded water. 

Not to mention their rotation... So much injury risk there, and not a lot of upside to begin with. Mikolas is good, works a lot of innings too. Flaherty was really good a few years back, maybe he still is, but hasn't been healthy in years. Montgomery and Wainwright will be very solid middle of the rotation starters. At some point age *will* catch up with Wainwright, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he has one more decent year in him. Matz struggles with injuries, but he's got some good underlying numbers that suggest there's something there. All that sounds pretty good, right? But if you add it up it's a case where good health and even slightly optimistic projections still gets you no ace and not the kind of depth to make up for it. And that rotation will have injuries. The real issue is that for an injury prone rotation, their depth is abysmal. And they'll be throwing to Willson Contreras. And have a new pitching coach. 

Anyway, despite all this they're still a good team. And they're the Cardinals, so there will be some AAA middling prospect you've never heard of who will turn out to be a solid 2 WAR type guy. Probably more thhan one. And their devil magic will do their work and all that. My point is more that one might look at a 7 win difference last year, look at the gaudy WAR totals of Arenado, Goldy and Edman, or the surprisingly decent team ERA. and say they're a legit contender type team, and far ahead of the Brewers. When really, they're more like a very solidly above average team that overperformed in 2022 and had their key players stay healthy. Brewers are a solidly above average team that underperformed (Pitching wise in particular) in 2022.

The same could end up being true in 2023, but the normal expected regression would suggest the Cardinals are maybe a couple of wins better. That's the kind of edge that just a couple of injuries or some 1-run game fortunes could easily turn into the Brewers getting a few games ahead, or the Cardinals winning by 7+ again. 

[SF70]

35 minutes ago, Lathund said:

I think the Cardinals still are the better team, but I also think it's really close. Particularly because of how much of the Cardinals success relied on career years. 

Goldschmidt pre-2022: 141 wrC+. 2022 (Age 35): 177 wRC+. .419 wOBA vs .367 xwOBA

Arenado pre-2022: 118 wRC+. 2022 (Age 31): 151 wRC+. .389 wOBA vs .339 xwOBA

That's wRC+ numbers more than 30 points above their career numbers, With underlying numbers suggesting they're pretty much doing the same thing as always. They combined for 14 fWAR this year. Even if they manage to stay completely healthy yet again, 10-11 WAR is far more realistic. 

Then there's Pujols. Age 32-41 (Angels contract years): 105 wRC+. Age 37-41: 84 wRC+. 2022: 151 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR.  He obviously won't be there at all. 

Someone like Edman is also never repeating that kind of WAR totals, either on offense or defense. Despite being a very good defender, he's not repeating that. Defensive numbers are wonky in small samples, and he basically racked up huge totals in the first few months, and then treaded water. 

Not to mention their rotation... So much injury risk there, and not a lot of upside to begin with. Mikolas is good, works a lot of innings too. Flaherty was really good a few years back, maybe he still is, but hasn't been healthy in years. Montgomery and Wainwright will be very solid middle of the rotation starters. At some point age *will* catch up with Wainwright, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he has one more decent year in him. Matz struggles with injuries, but he's got some good underlying numbers that suggest there's something there. All that sounds pretty good, right? But if you add it up it's a case where good health and even slightly optimistic projections still gets you no ace and not the kind of depth to make up for it. And that rotation will have injuries. The real issue is that for an injury prone rotation, their depth is abysmal. And they'll be throwing to Willson Contreras. And have a new pitching coach. 

Anyway, despite all this they're still a good team. And they're the Cardinals, so there will be some AAA middling prospect you've never heard of who will turn out to be a solid 2 WAR type guy. Probably more thhan one. And their devil magic will do their work and all that. My point is more that one might look at a 7 win difference last year, look at the gaudy WAR totals of Arenado, Goldy and Edman, or the surprisingly decent team ERA. and say they're a legit contender type team, and far ahead of the Brewers. When really, they're more like a very solidly above average team that overperformed in 2022 and had their key players stay healthy. Brewers are a solidly above average team that underperformed (Pitching wise in particular) in 2022.

The same could end up being true in 2023, but the normal expected regression would suggest the Cardinals are maybe a couple of wins better. That's the kind of edge that just a couple of injuries or some 1-run game fortunes could easily turn into the Brewers getting a few games ahead, or the Cardinals winning by 7+ again. 

Spot-on analysis.

The Cardinals positional depth is extraordinary with 4-5 rookies not only making their debuts last year but most more than holding their own. Adding a potential MOTO bat to this years mix in top 5 prospect Jordan Walker only strengthens their top 5-7 offense.

As you already pointed-out their rotation is filled with mid to backend starters with little depth past their 5-6 starters. They aren’t getting help from their farm system either with most of their top pitching prospects #4 & #5 type starters and most (Liberatore the exception, but he’s vastly overrated anyhow, 5+ ERA at Memphis) multiple years away from touching a rotation. 

Which also is a potential problem past this season when they lose most of their rotation after this year.