What if...(Hader Trade)

[wibadgers23]

What if the Brewers hadn't traded Hader during the season last year?  How do you think this offseason would have gone?  Do you think some combination of Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff would have been traded?  Just kinda feels like Mark A was more reluctant to be any kind of a big seller this offseason based on the reaction from the Hader trade.  I think Hader along with at least one of the big three would have almost certainly been traded.  

[rickh150]

Besides cleaning up after the parade downtown? I think Hader would be traded this offseason, as most believed he would be. 

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, those 16 innings of 7 ERA would've made all the difference.

 

He would've been traded by now, and for less than William Contreras & Gasser most likely.

 

[MrTPlush]

32 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Yeah, those 16 innings of 7 ERA would've made all the difference.

 

He would've been traded by now, and for less than William Contreras & Gasser most likely.

 

He blew two saves (both of which the Padres won and one of them was a single UNearned run). He only costed them one game the entire second half with the Padres...a game that was tied when he went into it. 46% of the earned runs he gave up came in 0.1 innings of work in which the Padres were already down by three runs to begin with. His sole earned run in September was also in garbage time. I believe Taylor Rogers epically blew three games that he was handed a lead in and left with the Brewers losing. Hader never came in with a lead and left down. 

So if you want to take them at face value with their performances Josh Hader would have been a net +2 wins...which would have put us in the postseason over the eventual NL World Series team. 

I don't know why people keep digging up the Hader horse to beat it again....but to make it seem like Josh Hader sucked and was poor for the Padres is 100% a polar opposite of the reality. Hader was huge for the Padres. 

[patrickgpe]

remember they used a prospect from this trade to get their starting catcher, so obviously catcher would have been addressed another. Also, he would have just been traded this offseason and probably for a smaller package. His arby estimate is 13.6MM, which I think the brewers could have paid, but obviously he was always going to be a challenge to sign after 2023. 

[markedman5]

What parade would that have been? 
Christmas? Easter?

Hader would have been traded this winter and we wouldn’t have Contreras.

 

[Brewcrew82]

33 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

He blew two saves (both of which the Padres won and one of them was a single UNearned run). He only costed them one game the entire second half with the Padres...a game that was tied when he went into it. 46% of the earned runs he gave up came in 0.1 innings of work in which the Padres were already down by three runs to begin with. His sole earned run in September was also in garbage time. I believe Taylor Rogers epically blew three games that he was handed a lead in and left with the Brewers losing. Hader never came in with a lead and left down. 

So if you want to take them at face value with their performances Josh Hader would have been a net +2 wins...which would have put us in the postseason over the eventual NL World Series team. 

I don't know why people keep digging up the Hader horse to beat it again....but to make it seem like Josh Hader sucked and was poor for the Padres is 100% a polar opposite of the reality. Hader was huge for the Padres. 

That’s not how it works, though..

Plus Hader already did his fair share of blowing games for us before he was traded…

He sucked for a couple of months and then bounced back for September after he was shut down for about a week.

Fact of the matter is that, after Memorial Day, we won at the exact same rate with Hader as we did without Hader.

So, I would say the net difference is about zero. We simply didn’t play well enough all around to make the playoffs.

I do agree that I can’t wait for people to start taking empathy on the dead horse and just leave it alone.

[MrTPlush]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That’s not how it works, though..

Plus Hader already did his fair share of blowing games for us before he was traded…

He sucked for a couple of months and then bounced back for September after he was shut down for about a week.

Fact of the matter is that, after Memorial Day, we won at the exact same rate with Hader as we did without Hader.

So, I would say the net difference is about zero. We simply didn’t play well enough all around to make the playoffs.

I do agree that I can’t wait for people to start taking empathy on the dead horse and just leave it alone.

Right, I get that isn’t how it works. If he didn’t have to pack up and go through the big adjustment of another team/catcher/etc. he might have turned it around the next day with us. Who knows…impossible to know how he actually would have performed had he stayed.

I don’t really care about it at this point. I think we got stupid lucky the A’s wanted Ruiz that badly and we basically got to turn Hader into William Contreras. BUT I would rather be lucky than not lucky. Stearns basically drew up that trade as a big mistake after the season and the tide quickly changed within weeks. That’s baseball for you.

[sveumrules]

Or maybe while the Brewers scouted Ruiz leading up to the deadline they noticed A’s scouts were frequently in attendance too and put two and two together.

No doubt some degree of luck was involved, but some of that luck also could have been the residue of design.

[MrTPlush]

18 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Or maybe while the Brewers scouted Ruiz leading up to the deadline they noticed A’s scouts were frequently in attendance too and put two and two together.

No doubt some degree of luck was involved, but some of that luck also could have been the residue of design.

I mean…that’s really reaching. I doubt we are acquiring players hoping to then trade them for Sean Murphy, but then find out he is too expensive, and then somehow the A’s setup/demand the Braves to trade Contreras to us for the Braves to get Murphy.

Is it possible we acquired Ruiz full well knowing we probably would ship him off before ever having a chance at the MLB level for us because of the depth in the OF? That’s certainly plausible. Not sure anyone in the Brewers FO thought Ruiz was that amazing to another team that we could just flip him for an All Star catcher. I doubt anyone in the FO thought Yelich would turn into an MVP overnight either when we acquired him…but hey, sometimes things go better than you could ever imagine. Or…worse.

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I mean…that’s really reaching. I doubt we are acquiring players hoping to then trade them for Sean Murphy, but then find out he is too expensive, and then somehow the A’s setup/demand the Braves to trade Contreras to us for the Braves to get Murphy.

Is it possible we acquired Ruiz full well knowing we probably would ship him off before ever having a chance at the MLB level for us because of the depth in the OF? That’s certainly plausible. Not sure anyone in the Brewers FO thought Ruiz was that amazing to another team that we could just flip him for an All Star catcher. I doubt anyone in the FO thought Yelich would turn into an MVP overnight either when we acquired him…but hey, sometimes things go better than you could ever imagine. Or…worse.

Right, add up the transactional wins and subtract the transactional losses and the Brewers come out pretty far ahead over the last five years or so.

I believe that is a sign of a mostly sound organizational process. It definitely isn’t the result of outspending the competition.

I’m not saying they had a crystal ball to see exactly into the future, just that having a demonstrated track record of being kinda smart might have played some role in identifying Ruiz as a publicly undervalued asset relative to the higher valuation placed on him by certain other teams.

[rickh150]

We led the league in blown saves after July 31, correct? Our bullpen was in shambles. Roles were not defined. We would have likely made the playoffs with Hader. Our 2022 woulda coulda shoulda been better with Hader on the team.
 

However, the Contreras trade changed a lot of the narrative going forward. If we have an All Star caliber catcher over the next five plus seasons, then we all will be happy with the trade return.

[wiguy94]

16 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

We led the league in blown saves after July 31, correct? Our bullpen was in shambles. Roles were not defined. We would have likely made the playoffs with Hader. Our 2022 woulda coulda shoulda been better with Hader on the team.
 

However, the Contreras trade changed a lot of the narrative going forward. If we have an All Star caliber catcher over the next five plus seasons, then we all will be happy with the trade return.

Blown saves aren’t just a 9th inning stat so a large majority of those blown saves could have happened even if we kept Hader

 

Also our record from June 1st to the trade deadline was the same as it was from the deadline to the end of the season. We didn’t suddenly start tanking after the Hader trade. 

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

We led the league in blown saves after July 31, correct? Our bullpen was in shambles. Roles were not defined. We would have likely made the playoffs with Hader. Our 2022 woulda coulda shoulda been better with Hader on the team.
 

However, the Contreras trade changed a lot of the narrative going forward. If we have an All Star caliber catcher over the next five plus seasons, then we all will be happy with the trade return.

After Memorial Day, we won at the exact same rate WITH Hader as we did without him. We didn't play well enough all around to make the playoffs. 

[jerichoholicninja]

According to the Brewers roster on the MLB app Hader is still on the team.