Article: Pivotal Brewers Moments of 2022: Garrett Mitchell’s Debut

[Kyle Ginsbach]

In 2022, the Milwaukee Brewers' rookie outfielder Garrett Mitchell made quite the impression following his call-up in late August.

It hasn’t always been easy for Garrett Mitchell , who fell in the 2020 draft due to concerns over his Type-1 Diabetes. That didn’t stop the Brewers from taking Mitchell 20th overall, and it certainly didn't stop Mitchell from roaring straight to the big leagues after only 132 minor league games.

Mitchell earned his first call to MLB action in the waning days of August and immediately made an impact. In his first start, Mitchell recorded his first major league hit, swatting a two-run single up the middle and sparking the offense in a 9-7 win over the Cubs. 

The following day, Mitchell made the most of a second consecutive start. He blasted a two-out, game-tying two-run homer in the eighth inning, allowing the Brewers to win the game in extra innings. If anything is certain, Mitchell picked an excellent time to pop his first big league homer.

Later in the season, Mitchell continued his streak of clutch play. In a 7-6 win over the Reds, Mitchell recorded the second out in the ninth inning with a diving grab, stopping the game-tying run from scoring and allowing Devin Williams to close the game with the following hitter.

Perhaps Mitchell's defining moment of his debut season was his first major league walk-off. A few weeks into his career, Mitchell came to the plate with two outs in the ninth, with the bases loaded. On a two-strike pitch, Mitchell laced a line drive into center field to walk off Clay Holmes and the Yankees.

Still, in just a short month, Mitchell showed he has room to improve. His K% through his first 68 plate appearances clipped 40 percent, and his BABIP was unsustainably high, at .548. As a prospect, Mitchell graded out as an average hitter, but the Brewers believe he's capable of more. Before his call-up, Mitchell posted an OPS above .900 in AAA, a K% hovering around 20 percent, a BB% over ten percent. Should Mitchell find near that type of success with his bat at the next level, he'll be a staple in the lineup for years to come.

Season	Team	Level	Age	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2021	MIL	A+	22	29	120	5	33	20	12	23.3%	25.0%	.261	.491	.359	.508	.620	.494		204
2021	MIL	AA	22	35	148	3	16	10	5	12.2%	27.7%	.078	.247	.186	.291	.264	.264		63
2022	MIL	CPX	23	4	17	0	5	0	1	23.5%	23.5%	.083	.125	.083	.353	.167	.303		78
2022	MIL	AA	23	44	187	4	29	25	7	8.6%	27.8%	.151	.378	.277	.353	.428	.352		108
2022	MIL	AAA	23	20	85	1	15	9	9	11.8%	21.2%	.123	.444	.342	.435	.466	.408		147
2022	MIL	MLB	23	28	68	2	9	9	8	8.8%	41.2%	.148	.548	.311	.373	.459	.365	.266	136	2.2	5.1	2.3	1.0
2023	FGDC	PROJ	24	109	469	12	49	50	15	9.0%	28.6%	.142	.325	.242	.317	.385	.310		99	0.4	-0.3	2.1	1.8
2023	Steamer	PROJ	24	109	432	11	45	46	13	9.0%	28.6%	.142	.325	.242	.317	.385	.310		99	0.4	-0.3	2.2	1.7
Total	- - -	MLB		28	68	2	9	9	8	8.8%	41.2%	.148	.548	.311	.373	.459	.365		136	2.2	5.1	2.3	1.0

With the glove, should Mitchell's win one of the outfield spots coming out of spring training, he'll likely spend the majority of his time patrolling center field. As a prospect, Mitchell graded highly as a fielder, with a 60-grade arm and glove and a 70-grade speed. There are likely no worries about his part of Mitchell's game, as he was an excellent fielder throughout college and the minor leagues.

What did you think of Mitchell's first month in the big leagues? Where does it rank among Brewers' pivotal moments from last year? What do you expect from Mitchell next year? Lets us hear your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Jim French Stepstool]

What I loved about Mitchell's debut was how he seemed to consistently use the middle third of the diamond, as the above highlights illustrated. Surprised by the high K rate, but we need to remember it was his first taste of big league pitching, and he had nowhere near a full season under his belt (including his first taste of AAA, only 20 games worth). And I have no idea what comprises the 2023 projections in the above graphic (I'm not a stat geek), but if he does indeed play in 109 games he's stealing a lot more than 15 bags. That's 2/3 of the games. I think he'll be on the field more than that assuming health.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have literally no idea what to expect from Mitchell in 2023. His BABIP was absurd in 2022 and his xwOBA was equally scary looking.

It was also in 68 plate appearances so *shrugs*

I think he probably has to be the Opening Day centerfielder though, right? I'm not sure Frelick can really do enough in spring to displace a guy who didn't get embarrassed in his first cup of coffee (I put little to no stock in spring stats so it would require a pretty massive shift in other things for one rookie to get bumped for another in spring if a hierarchy has already been established).

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I have literally no idea what to expect from Mitchell in 2023. His BABIP was absurd in 2022 and his xwOBA was equally scary looking.

It was also in 68 plate appearances so *shrugs*

I think he probably has to be the Opening Day centerfielder though, right? I'm not sure Frelick can really do enough in spring to displace a guy who didn't get embarrassed in his first cup of coffee (I put little to no stock in spring stats so it would require a pretty massive shift in other things for one rookie to get bumped for another in spring if a hierarchy has already been established).

Out of all of our outfield prospects, Mitchell is the one I'm leery of the most and the one I'm most willing to part with. Yes he's awesome in the OF and possesses above average raw power, but he'll never tap into that raw power unless he completely changes his swing and the K rate for a guy who relies on his speed is alarming. Man, would I love to get Edward Cabrera from the Marlins for him...

That being said, I agree that you can pretty much pencil him into CF on Opening Day as he already has that MLB experience and didn't fall flat on his face (at least according to the surface level stats). Though, the Brewers do have an incentive to play Frelick right away as a top 100 prospect who could realistically be in contention for ROY....

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Out of all of our outfield prospects, Mitchell is the one I'm leery of the most and the one I'm most willing to part with. Yes he's awesome in the OF and possesses above average raw power, but he'll never tap into that raw power unless he completely changes his swing and the K rate for a guy who relies on his speed is alarming. Man, would I love to get Edward Cabrera from the Marlins for him...

That being said, I agree that you can pretty much pencil him into CF on Opening Day as he already has that MLB experience and didn't fall flat on his face (at least according to the surface level stats). Though, the Brewers do have an incentive to play Frelick right away as a top 100 prospect who could realistically be in contention for ROY....

Oh, I think Frelick is the better prospect (I mean, obviously) but given the way baseball and its economics work, I just think Mitchell will get first shot at CF.

Trading him for something useful would be a big win, in my opinion because ultimately, I think the position is Frelick's anyway.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I think Frelick is the better prospect (I mean, obviously) but given the way baseball and its economics work, I just think Mitchell will get first shot at CF.

Trading him for something useful would be a big win, in my opinion because ultimately, I think the position is Frelick's anyway.

Yeah, we'll see what the Brewers do with Frelick. My money is still on him being on the OD roster due to the draft-pick incentive, but an extra year of control is valuable as well. But, like you say, Mitchell has the inside track. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, we'll see what the Brewers do with Frelick. My money is still on him being on the OD roster due to the draft-pick incentive, but an extra year of control is valuable as well. But, like you say, Mitchell has the inside track. 

One thing I've been thinking about lately is that I think it's really dangerous to under/overrate the 2019-2021 draft classes. Those three classes were so screwed by the pandemic that I think there will be a ton of untapped gems mixed in with overrated flops. We're only now in 2022-2023 starting to sort out where some of these guys might end up in the long term of things.

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Out of all of our outfield prospects, Mitchell is the one I'm leery of the most and the one I'm most willing to part with. Yes he's awesome in the OF and possesses above average raw power, but he'll never tap into that raw power unless he completely changes his swing and the K rate for a guy who relies on his speed is alarming. Man, would I love to get Edward Cabrera from the Marlins for him...

That being said, I agree that you can pretty much pencil him into CF on Opening Day as he already has that MLB experience and didn't fall flat on his face (at least according to the surface level stats). Though, the Brewers do have an incentive to play Frelick right away as a top 100 prospect who could realistically be in contention for ROY....

Honestly, the last thing I'd want is for him to change his swing to tap into whatever power potential he may have. If he can make an adjustment that results in more consistent contact, great.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Honestly, the last thing I'd want is for him to change his swing to tap into whatever power potential he may have. If he can make an adjustment that results in more consistent contact, great.

With the swing he currently has, we're probably looking at a 260/330/380 hitter. With his defense and speed, that's okay, and he'll certainly be better than replacement level. But he's got 60 grade raw power in there and could be so much more. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

With the swing he currently has, we're probably looking at a 260/330/380 hitter. With his defense and speed, that's okay, and he'll certainly be better than replacement level. But he's got 60 grade raw power in there and could be so much more. 

If he can increase the pop while reaching the numbers you mentioned, I'd be OK with that. I would just rather he lessen the Ks & target a higher number in the BA-OBP strata. Which I think would happen. Have to admit though, I didn't know he graded 60 in power.

[Brewcrew82]

34 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

If he can increase the pop while reaching the numbers you mentioned, I'd be OK with that. I would just rather he lessen the Ks & target a higher number in the BA-OBP strata. Which I think would happen. Have to admit though, I didn't know he graded 60 in power.

Raw power he's been pegged around 55/60. So, above average. Game power he's below average due to the swing. 

I do agree that the first thing he should focus on is lessen the K rate. A 40% K rate just won't cut it in the bigs. Thankfully, he's been in the mid to low 20s throughout the minors.