Jean Segura to the Marlins - 2 years $17 M

[Redd Vencher]

I would have definitely done this deal with Segura. I wonder what the Marlins' plans are with him and Jazz Chisolm.

[Brewcrew82]

I've been mostly in a wait-and-see mode given that it's still December, but with the way this FA market is moving, I'll admit that I'm starting to get quite depressed at the thought that the Brewers may be the only team that enters spring training without spending a single cent on FA...The only guys that are left that I'd really want are Longoria, Mancini, Chafin, and Moore. 

[wibadgers23]

Are the Brewers going to partake in free agency at all this year? Kinda bizarre. Maybe they’re working on an extension or two?

[TURBO]

Mancini is a hard pass for me, unless he comes mega cheap.

He wasn't much of a factor last year, so taking a chance on a rebound season dirt cheap would be fine, but does he give us anything Rowdy doesn't?

[TURBO]

6 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Are the Brewers going to partake in free agency at all this year? Kinda bizarre. Maybe they’re working on an extension or two?

I think they end up signing a couple bottom of the barrel bullpen arms to see if we can get lightning to strike.  Who those arms are, no clue.

[Brewcrew82]

28 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Mancini is a hard pass for me, unless he comes mega cheap.

He wasn't much of a factor last year, so taking a chance on a rebound season dirt cheap would be fine, but does he give us anything Rowdy doesn't?

I think he’d fit as a guy to replace Rowdy at 1B against LHP and rotate in RF with our youngsters. Plus he’ll be another year removed from cancer treatment. 
 

But anything over $10 million and I’m not interested.

[UpandIn]

11 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Mancini is a hard pass for me, unless he comes mega cheap.

He wasn't much of a factor last year, so taking a chance on a rebound season dirt cheap would be fine, but does he give us anything Rowdy doesn't?

I'm not that concerned with last season...we're seldom signing guys coming off monster seasons as the get...monster deals.

But he's got reverse splits. They're not great vs lefties. 

Segura made a lot of sense at 2/17. He hits lefties hard. He's a good defender...and you could always DH him IF you have Turang, playing well or hitting lefties since he's got reverse splits himself. 

 

Fujinami is a guy that...really makes a lot of sense. Triple digits, he's got a nasty slider, he doesn't seem to be attracting a lot of attention. It's not the main reason, but having a star from Japan would always be helpful with the marketing...not that he's Ohtani, but it's something. Plus, he's supposed to be just filthy, but he's wild. I feel like we've done pretty well with those types. At least when they've got elite stuff. 

[Redd Vencher]

Fujinami's posting period is over at the end of the month, so we'll find out shortly where or if he signs with a big league club.

[superfly]

53 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Are the Brewers going to partake in free agency at all this year? Kinda bizarre. Maybe they’re working on an extension or two?

It’s been too quiet, even for our typical quiet standards. Something is afoot, be it a big trade or extension(s). IMO

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, superfly said:

It’s been too quiet, even for our typical quiet standards. Something is afoot, be it a big trade or extension(s). IMO

That’s what I’m hoping, but I’m starting to get pessimistic. Would be a real shame if we stay around $20 million below last year’s payroll in the likely final season of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames.

[DR28]

11 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Are the Brewers going to partake in free agency at all this year? Kinda bizarre. Maybe they’re working on an extension or two?

No ****! This is getting really annoying!

Come on MA, you've improved the team in ways... Finish the job and get us some bullpen dudes and oh BA to play 3B.

[brewmann04]

If they don’t do an extension with any of the big 3 or make a big trad the fans need to stay away from the park 

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

If they don’t do an extension with any of the big 3 or make a big trad the fans need to stay away from the park 

sure, justify them not spending.
Or just support your team to the extent you can.

 

[Outlander]

8 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I'm not that concerned with last season...we're seldom signing guys coming off monster seasons as the get...monster deals.

But he's got reverse splits. They're not great vs lefties. 

I don't think it is fair to classify Mancini as a guy with reverse splits. Yes, he was bad against lefties last year but over his career he has hit them well and was pretty even between lefties and righties. To me that shows he is an everyday player and maybe he doesn't fit on this team with Tellez and Winker on the roster. I don't think his talents would be fully utilized if mainly a platoon guy. Not convinced either Winker or Mancini should be playing OF.

[sveumrules]

11 hours ago, UpandIn said:

But he's got reverse splits. They're not great vs lefties.

One year splits are too small of a sample to draw such definitive conclusions from.

2022
Mancini vs RHP: 111 wRC+
Mancini vs LHP: 85 wRC+ 

2021
Mancini vs RHP: 85 wRC+
Mancini vs LHP: 140 wRC+

Career
Mancini vs RHP: 111 wRC+
Mancini vs LHP: 112 wRC+
 

[SF70]

10 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That’s what I’m hoping, but I’m starting to get pessimistic. Would be a real shame if we stay around $20 million below last year’s payroll in the likely final season of Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames.

If this team contends all year long, I think they hold the big 3 for the draft-picks. My reasoning is teams don’t trade their best prospects unless they are desperate to improve, and that means the trade-deadline and not the offseason.

so how can the team trade any of them  if they are potentially playoff bound, which I think they will be?

Of course if they’re out of the race that changes things, but I don’t see that happening.

[monty57]

The team has been quiet in the free agent market, but they haven't been quiet. They've made three big trades that have done quite a bit to reshape the roster, including strengthening our position of greatest need (catcher), adding some bullpen depth, and clearing around $10M from payroll while making room for the rookies many people think are ready to step into MLB roles.

Now that we're getting clear of the mega-deals, and into the (roughly) $7-8M/year deals, I expect we'll add some supporting cast, but I never really expected a "core player" to come from free agency. We should use free agency to round out the roster on 1-2 year deals, not to get our star players.

This deal to Segura (2/$17) would have seemed to have made sense, so I wonder if we were having any talks with him and his agent.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

If this team contends all year long, I think they hold the big 3 for the draft-picks. My reasoning is teams don’t trade their best prospects unless they are desperate to improve, and that means the trade-deadline and not the offseason.

so how can the team trade any of them  if they are potentially playoff bound, which I think they will be?

Of course if they’re out of the race that changes things, but I don’t see that happening.

Are you saying that you don't think a team would give us any value for Burnes or Woodruff next offseason? I disagree. 

Every team in baseball would love to have either of those guys in their rotation, and will be willing to pay far more than the value of a compensatory draft pick for one year of their service. Not trading them next offseason would severely harm the future of the franchise.

[UpandIn]

34 minutes ago, monty57 said:

The team has been quiet in the free agent market, but they haven't been quiet. They've made three big trades that have done quite a bit to reshape the roster, including strengthening our position of greatest need (catcher), adding some bullpen depth, and clearing around $10M from payroll while making room for the rookies many people think are ready to step into MLB roles.

Now that we're getting clear of the mega-deals, and into the (roughly) $7-8M/year deals, I expect we'll add some supporting cast, but I never really expected a "core player" to come from free agency. We should use free agency to round out the roster on 1-2 year deals, not to get our star players.

This deal to Segura (2/$17) would have seemed to have made sense, so I wonder if we were having any talks with him and his agent.

They've made 3 big trades, but one of those trades made them a worse team. Clearing money from the payroll is nice if that money is going to be put back into the payroll, but it's looking more and more like Renfroe was traded for a couple of just...mediocre pitchers while subtracting from our biggest offensive deficiency...hitting lefties. 

 

[UpandIn]

39 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Are you saying that you don't think a team would give us any value for Burnes or Woodruff next offseason? I disagree. 

Every team in baseball would love to have either of those guys in their rotation, and will be willing to pay far more than the value of a compensatory draft pick for one year of their service. Not trading them next offseason would severely harm the future of the franchise.

Quote

@SF70If this team contends all year long, I think they hold the big 3 for the draft-picks. My reasoning is teams don’t trade their best prospects unless they are desperate to improve, and that means the trade-deadline and not the offseason.

Doesn't look like he's saying they won't get any value, he's saying they won't give up their top prospects. 

We were just talking about Grayson Rodriguez, Jackson Holliday+.  

There's quite a bit of merit to what he's saying. Teams don't seem to be desperate enough to trade their top prospects in the off-season. 

 

I don't know if he's right, but I know he's definitely not saying we won't get "any value" for Burnes, Woodruff(and Adames) next off-season. I believe he's saying they won't give enough to make it worthwhile. 

[monty57]

35 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Doesn't look like he's saying they won't get any value, he's saying they won't give up their top prospects. 

We were just talking about Grayson Rodriguez, Jackson Holliday+.  

There's quite a bit of merit to what he's saying. Teams don't seem to be desperate enough to trade their top prospects in the off-season. 

 

I don't know if he's right, but I know he's definitely not saying we won't get "any value" for Burnes, Woodruff(and Adames) next off-season. I believe he's saying they won't give enough to make it worthwhile. 

If that is truly the case (we won't get enough to make it worthwhile), then Arnold set back the franchise a long ways by not trading them this offseason, especially since we're still far from being World Series favorites.

I don't think that's the case, and I think teams will be tripping over each other lining up to get Burnes or Woodruff into their rotation for a season, and to a lesser degree to get Adames for SS.

We'll see, but if we ride those three to free agency and accept draft pick compensation, we are going to have an extended period of sub-.500 seasons starting in '25.

[wibadgers23]

9 minutes ago, monty57 said:

If that is truly the case (we won't get enough to make it worthwhile), then Arnold set back the franchise a long ways by not trading them this offseason, especially since we're still far from being World Series favorites.

I don't think that's the case, and I think teams will be tripping over each other lining up to get Burnes or Woodruff into their rotation for a season, and to a lesser degree to get Adames for SS.

We'll see, but if we ride those three to free agency and accept draft pick compensation, we are going to have an extended period of sub-.500 seasons starting in '25.

We're in an awkward position next offseason if we make the playoffs and win a series or two.  Now you're talking about having to trade some combination of the big three?  You certainly don't want to wait until the 2024 trade deadline.  The time to trade one or two of them was probably this offseason but I can see both sides of that argument.  I don't envy Arnold one bit - he's in a tough spot with these guys.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

They've made 3 big trades, but one of those trades made them a worse team. Clearing money from the payroll is nice if that money is going to be put back into the payroll, but it's looking more and more like Renfroe was traded for a couple of just...mediocre pitchers while subtracting from our biggest offensive deficiency...hitting lefties. 

 

There's a difference between making the team worse and making the offense worse. We had a mediocre bullpen and one of the softest tossing groups in the league. That has improved. As far as losing a guy who hit lefties well we also got one that hits lefties well at a position where we needed long term help. I fail to see how to see how not getting worse at one aspect while getting better at another makes us worse overall.

[UpandIn]

28 minutes ago, monty57 said:

If that is truly the case (we won't get enough to make it worthwhile), then Arnold set back the franchise a long ways by not trading them this offseason, especially since we're still far from being World Series favorites.

I don't think that's the case, and I think teams will be tripping over each other lining up to get Burnes or Woodruff into their rotation for a season, and to a lesser degree to get Adames for SS.

We'll see, but if we ride those three to free agency and accept draft pick compensation, we are going to have an extended period of sub-.500 seasons starting in '25.

I think we'll be able to get a good package for them. I always thought some of these were probably a bit...much. Multiple top 15 prospects?

I think people are going to be disappointed just as they were with Hader if we wait until next off-season. And he's not wrong, teams are more willing to make those at the deadline. I think we're still going to get a nice package for Burnes, Woody and Adames. 

I also think it's more likely we get prospects in HiA or just a couple years away if we want to maximize value. 

 

I don't know if I believe the premise that we're going to be a sub .500 team 3 years from now if we don't get anything back for them. We could have Ashby and Misiorowski atop the rotation with Peralta as our #3, Gasser and Small or we could have a terrible rotation. I don't know...Arnold will figure it out. This season hasn't even started yet. 

This also isn't our problem. It's fun to discuss these, but we can spend too much time worrying about the 2025 season when we've got a pretty good team right now. Maybe we'll announce a Corbin Burnes extension. Or a Woodruff extension. Or maybe we won't do anything. We'll find out. 

 

But all I was really saying is there's a chasm between what he said and how you interpreted it. We won't get TOP prosects vs they won't have any value. Do you think teams are going to be trading multiple players who are MLB ready or half a season away that are in the top 20-50 next off-season for Burnes or Woody? I'd say it's unlikely.

Could we get a couple backend top 100 prospects and then 2 other prospects who have 1 or 2 really impressive tools? Yeah...that's likely to happen. And lets say, hypothetically, we get to the NLCS and lose in 7 again. Do you think the decision to trade those players will be as black and white and that you'll be saying Arnold really screwed up?

There's more nuance to these decisions than that.
 

[UpandIn]

15 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

There's a difference between making the team worse and making the offense worse. We had a mediocre bullpen and one of the softest tossing groups in the league. That has improved. As far as losing a guy who hit lefties well we also got one that hits lefties well at a position where we needed long term help. I fail to see how to see how not getting worse at one aspect while getting better at another makes us worse overall.

I didn't say we were worse overall. He said we'd made three BIG trades. Well, two of them were to improve the team, one was to dump salary.  And that trade didn't change the "mediocre bullpen and one of the softest tossing groups in the league." We took back 3 relievers, none of whom are even close to being locks to make our OD roster. So that hasn't improved as a result of the Renfroe trade. We could have traded Burnes, Woodruff and Adames and that'd be 6 big trades. Big trade doesn't necessarily mean it's a trade that makes us BETTER this year. 

And we DID get back a player who helps us vs lefties. Contreras was VERY good last year.

As bad as we were last year vs lefties, the goal should have been to add more than one player to rectify that problem. Especially when that one player will ALMOST certainly not come close to replicating his splits from a year ago and who only played ~100 games. 

I'd like to think we're not going to hang our hopes on being able to hit LHPing on a guy who's got ~150 PAs in his career vs lefties. 

 

So the justification for not spending being we've done these things and we've saved 10M...so I'd hope that 10M would be put back into the team, not just used to save salary.