Article: Brewers' Aaron Ashby Ready for Breakout Season in 2023

[Tim Muma]

Outside of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Ashby is the most crucial pitcher for the 2023 Milwaukee Brewers. Ashby enters his third MLB season as a valuable weapon to deploy in the rotation and out of the bullpen. Some numbers from 2022 point to a possible breakout this coming season if Ashby can clean up a few areas.

Young hurlers need time to develop from throwers with great stuff to consistent MLB pitchers. The Milwaukee Brewers' Aaron Ashby is a perfect example of this general belief, with signs pointing to a breakout in 2023. Regardless of the talent level, pitchers must learn to read hitters, pitch to counts, command their pitches, and learn how to adjust game-to-game, batter-to-batter, and pitch-to-pitch. Ashby, who turns 25 years old next May, went through some growing pains last season, but he gained invaluable experience starting and relieving, which could lead to a breakout season.

No one questions Ashby's talent and "stuff." His slider is especially devastating, ranking ninth in vertical movement (42.3 inches) and 24th in horizontal movement (10 inches) across MLB in 2022. His sinker also rated 30th in horizontal direction (15.4 inches), giving him tons of ride, run and drop to work with daily. However, Ashby's strength in pitch movement can sometimes also be a weakness. He has yet to consistently find the touch to command his arsenal, leading to more walks and pitches out over the plate that get hit.

Ashby's 2022 season had its ups and downs. He threw 107.1 innings (up from 31.2 in 2021) across 19 starts and eight relief appearances. A handful of stats declined for the southpaw but considering his massive increase in workload, it's expected from a young hurler. Despite the step back in walk rate, home run rate, and opponent batting average, some numbers say Ashby is due some better luck in 2023.

Like it or not, luck exists in baseball. Balls get hit in the "wrong" spot, have funky spin, and even get hit too softly for the defense to make a play. The Brewers saw Ashby on the negative side of that equation quite last season. Despite his Statcast HardHit% dropping from 34.6% to 34.1%, Ashby watched hitters reach base far more often - and often due to perceived luck.

Opponents had a .324 BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) against Ashby. The league average was .289 for pitchers, a full 34 points lower across baseball. If you watched any of his starts, you probably remember thinking he was unlucky, where a quality pitch still led to a hit. Even more, telling is that his BABIP in 2021 was .273, albeit in a smaller sample size. If Ashby's BABIP regresses toward the mean, that should naturally improve his production. Fewer baserunners, fewer pitches in particular innings, and getting out of frames scoreless instead of giving up bad-luck runs.

To take the luck factor further, Ashby owned a 12.7% Infield Hit Percentage (IFH%) last year when the league average for hitters reaching via infield hit was 6.8%. Few things are more frustrating than allowing a hit on an end-of-the-bat squibber. Aside from the base knock itself, it can mentally impact and drain a pitcher when this happens more often than it should. Should they move back toward the average, these two batted-ball luck factors alone will elevate Ashby's value to the Brewers.

However, some of that bad luck is self-induced. Many probably remember how poorly Ashby pitched when ahead 0-2 on the batter in 2022. The numbers in that count (below) tell the story from last season.



Those are some of the worst numbers in baseball in that situation. It might have been a fluke, in which case one would expect better things this coming season. Imagine dropping your opponents' OPS 300 points in those 70 plate appearances and the effect it would have in each game. Again, not all of it is luck, of course. Ashby has to look in the mirror and figure out why he had so much trouble retiring hitters in the ultimate pitcher's count.

First, he should consider throwing fewer sliders in that count. Ashby threw that pitch about 55% of the time on 0-2, and hitters likely were looking for it. For a guy with five pitches at his disposal, more mix should help, even if the 0-2 sinker is just a show-me pitch to set up a 1-2 slider. Especially against right-handed hitters, other options should be the norm. This chart shows the location of Ashby's pitches last season (not just 0-2 counts). You'll notice that up-and-in to righties and off the plate, down-and-away to righties (or down-and-in to lefties) could be much better.


 

Perhaps Ashby needs help locating those spots, but they need to be more utilized. It would behoove the Brewers to push Ashby out of his comfort zone this offseason to work on non-sliders in these locations. If nothing else, it gives hitters more to think about and creates doubt when they are behind in the count. These minor adjustments could also prove valuable in turning around his perceived bad luck in 2023.

As mentioned to start, some of this is about Ashby getting a better feel for his pitches and commanding his arsenal more consistently. Throwing a pitch eight inches off the plate will get a few swings and misses. Conversely, throwing for a corner and watching a ball leak over the heart of the plate can cause even more damage. Another offseason, with a full Spring Training, should help Ashby take steps in the right direction.

Steamer's projections for Ashby have him with a 3.43 ERA across 127 innings (21 starts). That's a one-run improvement in ERA from last season (4.44 ERA), despite many similar stats projected for 2023. So at least initially, it looks like Steamer's projections believe in Ashby's development and luck factor. It also sees him giving up fewer homers (0.83 HR/9), fewer walks (3.94 BB/9), a lower WHIP (1.28), and a much more reasonable BABIP of .301 in 2023.

The Milwaukee Brewers would be thrilled to get that type of production from Ashby in 2023, a small breakout on his way to (hopefully) a long, successful career. Will it be enough to push the Brewers back into the playoffs? It's a big step toward 90+ wins and a bounce-back season for the rotation.

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[Robocaller]

I think it's equally likely that Ashby is exactly as he was this past season or becomes an all-star in 2023. 

[Brewcrew82]

Guy has as good of stuff as anyone on this pitching staff, including Corbin Burnes. Looking forward to him hopefully taking that next step in 2023. I'm a believer. 

[MrTPlush]

His rookie campaign was fine. Easy to be spoiled by our current aces and they easily overshadow anyone else. Rookie campaigns aren’t always great…even for really good pitchers. Greinke once dropped a 5.80 ERA in 33 starts to begin his career. Verlander once had a 4.80 ERA early in his career. 4.26 ERA for Kershaw in his first year. Scherzer had an ERA north of 4.00 2/3 of his first years.

This isn’t to say Ashby will or could end up like them…just that a starters first crack at it is more about showing flashes of promise than it is actually results at the end of the year. Does he end up like Brandon Woodruff, Wily Peralta, or somewhere in between…time will tell.

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

His rookie campaign was fine. Easy to be spoiled by our current aces and they easily overshadow anyone else. Rookie campaigns aren’t always great…even for really good pitchers. Greinke once dropped a 5.80 ERA in 33 starts to begin his career. Verlander once had a 4.80 ERA early in his career. 4.26 ERA for Kershaw in his first year. Scherzer had an ERA north of 4.00 2/3 of his first years.

This isn’t to say Ashby will or could end up like them…just that a starters first crack at it is more about showing flashes of promise than it is actually results at the end of the year. Does he end up like Brandon Woodruff, Wily Peralta, or somewhere in between…time will tell.

Plus it's not like any of our current aces were ace starting pitchers from the get-go (see Woodruff 2017/18, Burnes/Peralta 2019). I remain quite optimistic about Ashby due to his SO stuff and extreme ground-ball profile. Hopefully he takes last year's lessons to heart starting this spring. 

[rickh150]

Ashby and Peralta will help the sting of trading/losing Woody and Burnes. Ashby’s tailing life on his fastball, especially for a lefty, is special. Expecting him to be the 2nd or 3rd best starter for us in 2022. Great to have him on the team friendly, long contract too.

[SF70]

Ashby can be quite the unicorn starter once he improves his command of his FB. His K potential combined with his GB rate should make him incredibly unique, and allow him to pitch deep into games by pitching to more contact.

The breakout is just a matter of time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I think it's equally likely that Ashby is exactly as he was this past season or becomes an all-star in 2023. 

That's a fair prediction. Obviously, the latter would be more fun. ?