Article: Four Disappointing Steamer Projections for Brewers Hitters

[Tim Muma]

As we slog through the doldrums of winter, it's fun to peek ahead to what could be this upcoming season via projection systems. The Milwaukee Brewers offense will be under the microscope this season, and the Steamer projections have some disappointing numbers worth examining. 

It's important to note that projections are not predictions. Projections utilize numerical data and values to give a snapshot of the true talent level in a given season. Steamer's projections shared by FanGraphs display the "median outcome" for each player. That means he is as likely to finish with stats below the median projection as he is to end the season below these numbers. It would be terrific if each player performed at the 75% level of his projected talent, but he could also be at 25% in any given season.

After checking out the Milwaukee Brewers' Steamer projections, a few hitters stood out on the low end. If they were to perform to this median level, it would be disappointing considering other factors that impact the outcomes. If you're a Brewers fan, you hope the system has a few errors that favor these four Milwaukee hitters in 2023.

Sal Frelick 131 Plate Appearances
This is a tricky projection considering Frelick has zero MLB plate appearances (PA). It's also subjective because I prefer to see Frelick get the most opportunities among the young outfielders to prove his chops in "The Show." Frelick's bat-to-ball skills, on-base ability (.406 OBP in 731 minor league PA), and base running potential (36 stolen bases) would be a perfect, diverse profile for the Brewers' lineup.

The guy hits and reaches base everywhere he goes. At 23 years old, with college and minor league experience, he has the mentality to make an impact immediately. Steamer projects him for a .337 OBP in those limited PAs, but that would be third-best on the club. It would be a mistake to give Frelick just 30 games of action while hoping Garrett Mitchell (432 projected PAs) put up worse numbers. One comparative projection between these two gives Frelick the wRC+ edge of 111-99 (which might be generous for Mitchell).

Luis Urias Continues On-Base Dip (.330 OBP, 10.2 BB%)
His 2021 power surge was incredible as Urias hit 23 HR for a .445 SLG. But Urias's quality at-bats and on-base skills are the keys to his value. His .345 OBP and 11.1 BB% in 2021 showed that Urias was on the rise. Partly due to injury last season, Urias took a small step back (.335 OBP, 10.6 BB%), and many saw a healthy 2023 as a true breakout season for the 25-year-old.

But Steamer projects Urias to slip in those areas again to .330 and 10.2%. Those are fine numbers, but with a projected.409 SLG as well, it is different from what the Brewers had in mind when they acquired him before the 2020 season. Urias deserves a shot to be the everyday guy at second or third base. Still, he should reach greater heights regarding his best offensive qualities.

Christian Yelich 14 Stolen Bases
The bases will be larger, and pitchers will have limits on pickoff attempts in 2023. Those advantages for base runners should push Yelich over 20 stolen bases this season. Instead, Steamer projects him to steal 14 bags, five fewer than in 2022. Yes, Yelich is a year older, but he still ranked in the 70th percentile in sprint speed last season, the same rate he had in 2020.

On top of being a swift runner, Yelich is smart. With the rules changes and a projected OBP identical to last season, it would be disappointing to see him snag fewer bases. It would help the Brewers' offense if he moved up 90 feet more often without the ball in play, and if Milwaukee turns to some of the kids who also boast wheels, they could all play off each other to drive pitchers and catchers mad.

Jesse Winker Power Outage (17 HR, .424 SLG)
Aside from his injuries in 2022, playing home games in Seattle undoubtedly sapped Winker's power numbers. In 547 PA, Winker hit just 14 homers and 15 doubles while posting a measly .344 SLG. In about 60 fewer PA in 2021 with Cincinnati, Winker blasted 24 dingers and 32 doubles to boast a .556 SLG.

With Steamer projecting Winker to get 494 PA with the Brewers, it would be a massive bust if he had 17 homers and a .424 SLG - especially with the shorter porch in right field at American Family Field. The projections appear to be punishing him disproportionately for his 2022 struggles that were injury-marred and in Seattle, a cavernous ballpark to call home. The Brewers certainly expect 20+ home runs and slugging north of .450 (at least). Combine those with Winker's projected .355 OBP, and Milwaukee has the bat they were looking for in its trade with the Seattle Mariners.

Once again, Steamer projections give the median outcomes for each player. Any number of factors can boost or drop the actual results in 2023. Based on past performance and club expectations, Brewers' fans should hope that the projections fail to assess these four players this season accurately.

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[Nate Palmer]

If that Winker projection were to hold true, that would be a very bad development for the club. They could likely weather the other projections, but it seems a lot hinges on Winker's power rebounding in Milwaukee. 

[brewerfan82]

I wonder if the raw numbers for Winker projections need to be adjusted for his move from Seattle to Milwaukee still. American Family Field has a HR park factor of 114 compared to T-Mobile's 97 (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2022&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=12&sortDir=desc). His wRC+ is a healthy 122, so you would think he'd have a bit more pop showing up in his "non-park-normalized" stats than what is shown there.

[Tim Muma]

52 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I wonder if the raw numbers for Winker projections need to be adjusted for his move from Seattle to Milwaukee still. American Family Field has a HR park factor of 114 compared to T-Mobile's 97 (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2022&batSide=&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=&sort=12&sortDir=desc). His wRC+ is a healthy 122, so you would think he'd have a bit more pop showing up in his "non-park-normalized" stats than what is shown there.

I was also confused seeing the 122 wRC+ but such little projected power. It must be his OBP/wOBA carrying the weight relative to the league average in those areas. If he is healthy & starting every game against RHP...20+ HRs seems like a lock.

[Redd Vencher]

Steamer has Urias putting up a 110 wRC+ while he put up a 111 wRC+ the last 2 sseasons. (112 and 110) It's saying he's going to be the same player he's been.  Winker's 122 wRC+ is a nice bounce back projection even if it's a little worse than his career 126 wRC+. I would bet the over on the power output for a LH batter like Winker in Am Fam assuming his hitting bounces back. Expecting a projection system to project more SB based on the new rule changes is just something these systems can't do because they're using past data to project future performance. PA is another one you don't have to worry about in a projection system. If Frelick hits that 111 wRC+ projection, he's getting WAY more than 131 PA. 

[Tim Muma]

20 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Steamer has Urias putting up a 110 wRC+ while he put up a 111 wRC+ the last 2 sseasons. (112 and 110) It's saying he's going to be the same player he's been.  Winker's 122 wRC+ is a nice bounce back projection even if it's a little worse than his career 126 wRC+. I would bet the over on the power output for a LH batter like Winker in Am Fam assuming his hitting bounces back. Expecting a projection system to project more SB based on the new rule changes is just something these systems can't do because they're using past data to project future performance. PA is another one you don't have to worry about in a projection system. If Frelick hits that 111 wRC+ projection, he's getting WAY more than 131 PA. 

Yeah...I completely understand the stolen base and PA projections aren't going to be "reliable" really. The point was that, many people do like to look at these and at a glance, some areas are "disappointing," even if they technically mean nothing. For Urias, yes, the wRC+ is saying the same player, but I was focused on his on-base numbers & BB%. I value and appreciate stats that try to be all-encompassing like wRC+, but I also feel it's easy to fall into the trap of believing that value (or any) is to be trusted to fully evaluate what a player/team is.

For example, if you have 9 guys with a wRC+ of 110-115, you should be in good shape. But is there more value in a diversified lineup that gets to those 110-115 wRC+ in different ways? Or maybe some guys are even lower in wRC+, but because they are more OBP heavy or strike out less, they bring something different to the table than the other 8 hitters who are high K, high power, low OBP types. It's just something that seems to be ignored and/or undervalued. Or maybe it's that it is somewhat impossible to determine.

[Redd Vencher]

On 12/23/2022 at 3:34 PM, Tim Muma said:

Yeah...I completely understand the stolen base and PA projections aren't going to be "reliable" really. The point was that, many people do like to look at these and at a glance, some areas are "disappointing," even if they technically mean nothing. For Urias, yes, the wRC+ is saying the same player, but I was focused on his on-base numbers & BB%. I value and appreciate stats that try to be all-encompassing like wRC+, but I also feel it's easy to fall into the trap of believing that value (or any) is to be trusted to fully evaluate what a player/team is.

For example, if you have 9 guys with a wRC+ of 110-115, you should be in good shape. But is there more value in a diversified lineup that gets to those 110-115 wRC+ in different ways? Or maybe some guys are even lower in wRC+, but because they are more OBP heavy or strike out less, they bring something different to the table than the other 8 hitters who are high K, high power, low OBP types. It's just something that seems to be ignored and/or undervalued. Or maybe it's that it is somewhat impossible to determine.

wRC+ is based on linear weights, so all those events have a run value.

These are the Fangraphs ones from 2015 relative to outs in their glossary, but they will work to illustrate the basic point.

BB 0.55

HBP 0.57

1B 0.70

2B 1.00

3B 1.27

HR 1.65

 

The proportion of each of those states against the run environment is what gives us wRC+. A player with a lower wRC+ isn't going to provide more than one with a higher wRC+ in terms of batted outcomes. Where a difference that would come up on offense would be their ability on the basepaths, which isn't considered in wRC+.  Sequencing on offense can help teams not as good by wRC+ to outperform it, but there's no good way to plan for good sequencing of batted outcomes. It's not something you can plan for.