Myers to Reds

[markedman5]

 

[brewerfan82]

He could have been an interesting add. For free agents we're down to Longoria, Anderson, maybe Mancini or Segura as bats that could possibly be nice additions to the roster. That said, while it'd be nice to land someone, I think management has shown so far that acquiring players via trades may be the better route in this market anyways.

Winker (proj. 122 wRC+, 1.5 WAR) at $8.25M is probably a nicer add than Bellinger (proj. 97 wRC+, 1.7 WAR) for $17.5M, Brantley (proj. 119 wRC+, 1.4 WAR) for $12M, or J.D. Martinez (proj. 112 wRC+, 1.3 WAR) for $10M.

William Contreras (proj. 115 wRC+, 2.2 WAR) and his pre-FA contract is almost for sure better than any catcher free agents would have been: Willson Contreras (proj. 119 wRC+, 3.1 WAR) for 5/$87.5M, Narvaez (proj. 96 wRC+, 2.1 WAR) for 2/$15M, or Vazquez (proj. 95 wRC+, 1.9 WAR) for 3/$30M.

I think the Brewers are pretty happy with the current roster, at least on offense, so I don't think they'll force anything at this point, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see them pull one more rabbit out of their hats for an impact bat before the offseason's over.

[clancyphile]

52 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

He could have been an interesting add. For free agents we're down to Longoria, Anderson, maybe Mancini or Segura as bats that could possibly be nice additions to the roster. That said, while it'd be nice to land someone, but I think management has shown so far that acquiring players via trades may be the better route in this market anyways.

Winker (proj. 122 wRC+, 1.5 WAR) at $8.25M is probably a nicer add than Bellinger (proj. 97 wRC+, 1.7 WAR) for $17.5M, Brantley (proj. 119 wRC+, 1.4 WAR) for $12M, or J.D. Martinez (proj. 112 wRC+, 1.3 WAR) for $10M.

William Contreras (proj. 115 wRC+, 2.2 WAR) and his pre-FA contract is almost for sure better than any catcher free agents would have been: Willson Contreras (proj. 119 wRC+, 3.1 WAR) for 5/$87.5M, Narvaez (proj. 96 wRC+, 2.1 WAR) for 2/$15M, or Vazquez (proj. 95 wRC+, 1.9 WAR) for 3/$30M.

I think the Brewers are pretty happy with the current roster, at least on offense, so I don't think they'll force anything at this point, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see them pull one more rabbit out of their hats for an impact bat before the offseason's over.

Plus, the way is clear should Wiemer/Frelick force their way to the majors. 

I would not be surprised if the game 162 starting lineup is:

LF: Frelick

SS: Adames

DH: Yelich

C: Contreras

1B: Tellez

3B: Urias

CF: Mitchell

RF: Wiemer

2B: Turang

Yep, I really think it could be four rookies in the lineup for the Crew.

 

[Lajitas]

9 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Plus, the way is clear should Wiemer/Frelick force their way to the majors. 

I would not be surprised if the game 162 starting lineup is:

LF: Frelick

SS: Adames

DH: Yelich

C: Contreras

1B: Tellez

3B: Urias

CF: Mitchell

RF: Wiemer

2B: Turang

Yep, I really think it could be four rookies in the lineup for the Crew.

 

If that's the lineup for the final game of the year, I would be massively disappointed.  Because that lineup would mean we're not even close to making the playoffs.

[DR28]

Why do a lot of you think we're gonna trade Winker??

If he returns to being one of best hitters in MLB, why the hell would we trade him? Again if he does, we're gonna need his bat to make a run.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Why do a lot of you think we're gonna trade Winker??

If he returns to being one of best hitters in MLB, why the hell would we trade him? Again if he does, we're gonna need his bat to make a run.

Yeah. I don't think they'll trade Winker. The only scenario I can see is if we're way out of it and in a sell-off. But, otherwise, they'll ride his (potential) impact bat throughout the season. 

[StearnsFTW]

Man, that's a great contract.   Wish it was the Brewers.  Oh well.

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

Yah, I might have done this one, although the Reds probably could offer more guaranteed playing time and an even more hitter-friendly park as he eyes his next deal. Matching the deal might not have been enough.

Plus signing a one-year deal means that even if you don’t sign with a contender in December you will be on one in September if you play well.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Lajitas said:

If that's the lineup for the final game of the year, I would be massively disappointed.  Because that lineup would mean we're not even close to making the playoffs.

No, it would more likely mean the apparent confidence this team has in their rookies was justified all-along. 

[tmwiese55]

This seems like a pretty reasonable deal to me and one I lean towards they should've done.  one would think at the same money he'd pick MKE due to at least being a borderline playoff team rather than rebuild.  One would think he wouldn't be afraid of beating out rookies and either way he's guaranteed to play vs all lefties.   Think I'd rather spend on the 1B/OF RH hitter than 3B type Longoria but we'll see what they do now that this option is gone. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

22 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.  Wrong answer.  Want to try phone a friend?

There is pessimism and then there is pessimism that denies the possibility of optimism. This seems to be trending toward the latter.

To be really pedantic, all you can tell from that lineup is that Wiemer performed well enough to get called up at some point, given the likelihood that game 162 won’t matter no matter which direction the season goes.

I am skeptical about all of the rookies working out simply because even if each has a 75% chance individually, that is just a 30% chance overall. That is why I liked Myers as an option to be a right-handed platoon guy while providing a more known floor in case one of the rookie outfielders doesn’t work out. That being said, the rookies should be given the opportunity to win the jobs, given that they all offer solid upside, either in the field, with the bat, or both.

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Yah, I might have done this one, although the Reds probably could offer more guaranteed playing time and an even more hitter-friendly park as he eyes his next deal. Matching the deal might not have been enough.

Plus signing a one-year deal means that even if you don’t sign with a contender in December you will be on one in September if you play well.

I'd hope not. Will Myers was REALLY nice fit for this lineup. I hope it's just Arnold seeing it differently than I did rather than a guy choosing to go to a team that's making no attempt to compete because he might get more PT. 

I think Myers in Milwaukee would have ended up with quite a few ABs. And if he was hitting well, then he'd very likely be getting ABs at 1B, DH, LF. Sure, we're not likely to hand him a job and say you're our everyday 1B, but I'd think playing meaningful games in Oct could results in a bigger payday than what'll likely be half a year in Cincy and then being traded...if he's hitting well. 

[MrTPlush]

I must be missing something. Why does anyone want Wil Myers? .315 OBP and a .713 OPS?

What a waste of 7.5mil that would be on a tight budget. Pretty sure one of our rookies could manage a 1.2 WAR.

[sveumrules]

29 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I must be missing something. Why does anyone want Wil Myers? .315 OBP and a .713 OPS?

What a waste of 7.5mil that would be on a tight budget. Pretty sure one of our rookies could manage a 1.2 WAR.

Because he has a 128 wRC+ vs LHP over the last two years which is better than what Rowdy at 1B or Winker at DH or either of Frelick/Mitchell are likely to post in the OF.

[Lajitas]

3 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

There is pessimism and then there is pessimism that denies the possibility of optimism. This seems to be trending toward the latter.

No, there is realism and then there is unrealistic optimism.

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I must be missing something. Why does anyone want Wil Myers? .315 OBP and a .713 OPS?

What a waste of 7.5mil that would be on a tight budget. Pretty sure one of our rookies could manage a 1.2 WAR.

I'm pretty sure they could to. But you don't actually win games on the field JUST by adding up WAR. We have a lineup that is desperately devoid of hitters who can hit lefties.

We've lost 3 of the top 4 hitters vs LHPing from last year and only one was over .800. 

We were bad vs lefties to start the off-season.

Contreras was...friggin masterpiece of a trade. You're still counting on a 25 year old who's had one good stretch of less than 100 games as your main solution to what was a MAJOR issue with this team(he had an OPS over 1.000 vs lefties).

I feel pretty confident he will not be able to duplicate that.
I hope Adames can improve upon his sub .700 OPS vs LHPing. 

But to be able to bring in a guy who'd be able to play all 3 of those spots for 7.5M? It's really not about just finding 1.2 WAR, it's about piecing together a team that can win and not just when right handed pitchers on on the mount. 

 

WAR is a great tool. It is basically useless when talking about filling in a roster and looking to plug the holes we've still got. 

So do we have someone who can play 1st/DH/LF/RF who can hit lefties and put up a ~.840 OPS vs them?

[UpandIn]

53 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

No, there is realism and then there is unrealistic optimism.

Yeah, it's hard for it to be "unrealistic" when it happened...last year.

Please look at the Cleveland Guardians. 

And then just stop being a clown. He was making a point about the rookies that could play a role on this team. Which one of those rookies do you think can't? 

Arguments beyond a tired 20 year old game show phrase would be helpful.

 

Don't bother phoning a friend...just go to Baseball reference, come back with an actual argument and explain who among those players is it so inconceivable could be in the lineup?

Frelick? No, you've already made a silly argument about Winker being our OFer because Frelick won't be up until his Super 2 Cutoff.
Mitchell? Hard to sell that one given...he's already been up and played pretty well. 

Turang? The one who's pretty close to a lock to be in the lineup?

Or Wiemer? The top 50 prospect who is probably the most talented prospect we have outside of Chourio?

Explain in a coherent argument why those 4 playing together would ONLY mean that the season has been a disaster?

Would it be better if someone put Perkins or Taylor in the OF and Toro at 2B simply because they're not rookies?

[brewcrewdue80]

On 12/22/2022 at 1:44 PM, Lajitas said:

If that's the lineup for the final game of the year, I would be massively disappointed.  Because that lineup would mean we're not even close to making the playoffs.

You could have gone, all these players healthy for game 162?! Wow that's optimistic. And where did Winker go?

If the team is completely out of playoff picture in your opinion based on that lineup, you could mention being disappointed that Chourio and Quero weren't in game 162.  I know I would be disappointed if we were far from the playoffs with that lineup, Yelich doesn't need to play gm 162. Contreras doesn't need to play over showing off Quero.

 

It's quite unrealistic to base game 162 lineup as meaning the Brewers were far from reaching the playoffs. Far for me tells of more than 10games. That would be 76games won or less.

The pitching is too good to have that kind of record. Ashby based on how aggressive  the Brewers signed him to an extension, should see gains on how he performs.  We won 86 games with starts missed by Woodruff and Peralta and the starts Ashby provided. Something drastic multiple times over must have happened to the staff to see a low win season like 76. 

Now all my optimism isn't saying we'll  win 95+ games this season(10 more wins vs less as your pessimism is suggesting,) but realizing with 2Aces, 1 #2 and a future #2 is a staff that will win games consistently.   

So is it the bullpen then? You didn't refer to them. Just a game 162 lineup.

Add a little more depth because the OP only changed Winker with Wiemer and maybe Taylor with Frelick. I think Frelick is over Taylor right now heading in to a full season playing as a Rookie.

By my counts you're getting Yelich, Adames, Tellez, and Urias to produce to what they did last season.

Contreras-Upgrade over Catchers production.

Winker-Upgrade over McCutchen production last season

Mitchell-Better production than CFs last season.

Leaves Turang and Frelick as the bats to make up the losses of Wong and Renfroe. I'm not h8gh on Turang batting, but defensively at 2b he'll be better than Wong last season. Will lessen the impact lost we see .610OPS from him. It's 1 batter overall.

Frelick, he's probably replacing McCutchen bat more now that I've written this response(Winker for Renfroe). Should be close when going with OPS and upside on higher.

Brosseau is Brosseau

Taylor is Taylor. 

Caratini is less needed but still Caratini.

As constructed with bright future additions, returning to 86wins is realistic. StL fwiw got career best seasons from Goldy and Arenado at ages 34/31.  Dozen years younger batting from Pujols who's gone this season.  Contreras might replace what Pujols gave them, but where else? Their offense is sure to be decline from last year.  There's more reasons to be optimistic for 2023 than pessimistic. 86wins was disappointing last year.  90wins is in the playoffs. The team's upside exceeds 90wins approaching 100wins. A return to 86 wins is realistic as constructed SPs& Positional batters.

Bullpen is the black sheep in the teams makeup.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Lajitas said:

No, there is realism and then there is unrealistic optimism.

Except true realism allows for a variance in potential outcomes. You seem to be branding all possibilities that don’t fit your central theory both in manner and results as being unrealistic. That isn’t how realism works.

[sveumrules]

One time I was hanging out with a bunch of realists, but there was one who was keeping it exceedingly real.

That individual was the realest realist.

[Lajitas]

7 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Except true realism allows for a variance in potential outcomes. You seem to be branding all possibilities that don’t fit your central theory both in manner and results as being unrealistic. That isn’t how realism works.

No.  Just branding outcomes that have no basis in reality.

[monty57]

16 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Yah, I might have done this one, although the Reds probably could offer more guaranteed playing time and an even more hitter-friendly park as he eyes his next deal. Matching the deal might not have been enough.

Plus signing a one-year deal means that even if you don’t sign with a contender in December you will be on one in September if you play well.

I think this is a good take. 
 

The Brewers would have put him in a strict platoon, and as a RH hitter, that means he’d play about 25% of the time. The Reds can make him a starter. 
 

If he’s playing well at all, they will undoubtedly trade him to a contender at the deadline, which means that he will get those “meaningful games,” and he’ll get an additional $2M for being traded, which teams probably aren’t willing to give him right now. 
 

From his standpoint, the Brewers would have had to offer him at a minimum $9.5M, and probably more than that because the contract with the Reds looks like a good deal for him (trade clause and probably guaranteed playing time).

While he would fill a need for the Brewers, it might not be worth around $10M for a guy who would probably get 200-300 PAs. 

[MrTPlush]

10 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I'm pretty sure they could to. But you don't actually win games on the field JUST by adding up WAR. We have a lineup that is desperately devoid of hitters who can hit lefties.

We've lost 3 of the top 4 hitters vs LHPing from last year and only one was over .800. 

We were bad vs lefties to start the off-season.

Contreras was...friggin masterpiece of a trade. You're still counting on a 25 year old who's had one good stretch of less than 100 games as your main solution to what was a MAJOR issue with this team(he had an OPS over 1.000 vs lefties).

I feel pretty confident he will not be able to duplicate that.
I hope Adames can improve upon his sub .700 OPS vs LHPing. 

But to be able to bring in a guy who'd be able to play all 3 of those spots for 7.5M? It's really not about just finding 1.2 WAR, it's about piecing together a team that can win and not just when right handed pitchers on on the mount. 

 

WAR is a great tool. It is basically useless when talking about filling in a roster and looking to plug the holes we've still got. 

So do we have someone who can play 1st/DH/LF/RF who can hit lefties and put up a ~.840 OPS vs them?

Do we have the payroll to add a guy like that though? He would get the playing time sure, but you are still paying one of your bench spots $7.5mil. I’m sure through injuries he gets a good chunk of at-bats…but you are basically paying him for his play against LHP, which is not very much.

Sounds like a luxury that our payroll might not be able to fit. If our lineup is still problematic come the deadline, maybe then you prep it for a postseason run where hitting LHP is much more important.