Article: The Curious Case of Keston Hiura: What Will His Role Be in 2023?

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

Well, he did bat fairly consistently there, that is true and I’ll give you that. Good job.
Yet, overall, no way is this like sticking with him at a position and spot in the order. In your span, He also was pulled from five of those games not finishing them, hitting in five different spots in the order, pinch hit a couple of times, and played at three positions (including DH).

Hiura's job is to hit the ball when in the lineup. He failed in September/October by OPSing below .500. He hurts himself by being a trash defender and striking out more than once in every 3 at-bats. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

If Keston could field a position adequately and his OPS wasn't propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...he'd probably get more consistent playing time.

Since he can't field a position adequately and his OPS was propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...his playing time was inconsistent.

Seems pretty straight forward to me.

Like I said earlier, the guy is the square peg in the round hole of this roster. He simply doesn't fit. You can't platoon him with Rowdy because both suck against lefties. You can't play him at 2B because he's a terrible defender. You can pencil him in at DH against righties. But be prepared for at least 2 Ks per game at least. I suppose if you subscribe to the idea that Ks don't matter, that's fine. But when the rest of the lineup has all-or-nothing guys as well, throwing another on the pile isn't going to help.

[Robocaller]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Hiura's job is to hit the ball when in the lineup. He failed in September/October by OPSing below .500. He hurts himself by being a trash defender and striking out more than once in every 3 at-bats. 

Baseball Ref has him at .511. His monthly splits went up and down a lot.

 

[rickh150]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Congratulations, everyone, after reading this thread I am now convinced that Keston Hiura will both be out of baseball within the next two weeks and will ultimately turn into a right-handed Ted Williams.

Hiura had one of the better OPS on the team vs rhp and he continues to be treated like an afterthought. I agree with the Ks being a major issue, but again we are comparing him with other guys on our team that cannot hit. He cannot field. Yep. But he deserves regular at bats at DH against righties until we get better hitters. Winker is a big question mark and he has to prove he is a different batter in spring training.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Congratulations, everyone, after reading this thread I am now convinced that Keston Hiura will both be out of baseball within the next two weeks and will ultimately turn into a right-handed Ted Williams.

This is pretty much why I want him gone. There are flashes that make me think that he might turn into something, then he proceeds to K 10 times in the next 4 games. Enigma.

[rickh150]

3 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Like I said earlier, the guy is the square peg in the round hole of this roster. He simply doesn't fit. You can't platoon him with Rowdy because both suck against lefties. You can't play him at 2B because he's a terrible defender. You can pencil him in at DH against righties. But be prepared for at least 2 Ks per game at least. I suppose if you subscribe to the idea that Ks don't matter, that's fine. But when the rest of the lineup has all-or-nothing guys as well, throwing another on the pile isn't going to help.

 

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Hiura's job is to hit the ball when in the lineup. He failed in September/October by OPSing below .500. He hurts himself by being a trash defender and striking out more than once in every 3 at-bats. 

Cutch failed most of the season there… low bar. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Cutch failed most of the season there… low bar. 

Agreed. But his 21% K rate was at least demonstrably better. And he wasn't a complete embarrassment when tossed in the OF.

[Brewcrew82]

30 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Hiura had one of the better OPS on the team vs rhp and he continues to be treated like an afterthought. I agree with the Ks being a major issue, but again we are comparing him with other guys on our team that cannot hit. He cannot field. Yep. But he deserves regular at bats at DH against righties until we get better hitters. Winker is a big question mark and he has to prove he is a different batter in spring training.

Hiura is a much bigger question mark than Winker...One injury plagued season in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks doesn't wipe out an entire career of high-level hitting. Even then, Hiura barely outperformed Winker by wRC+ (in significantly fewer at-bats) because Winker walks and gets on base at an elite level even when he isn't hitting. Neither Hiura nor McCutchen could do that. 

[sveumrules]

Keston’s 2022 peaked on August 22nd when he had a 144 wRC+ with a 42.8 K%, .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% through 173 PAs. Those 173 PAs ranked 12th on the team and worked out to an average of 1.43 PA/G.

"WHY ARENT THEY PLAYING HOME MORE?!?!?!" - the internet in general.

From August 23rd through the end of the season Hiura posted a 63 wRC+ with a 39.8 K%, .319 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB% over 93 PAs. Those 93 PAs ranked 8th on the team and worked out to an average of 2.27 PA/G.

They played him more down the stretch, and he stunk. Turned out keeping up that .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% was unsustainable...just like the front office likely thought it was, which is probably why they didn't play him more often to begin with.

It's not like he had earned regular playing time entering 2022 after posting a 72 wRC+ (251st out of 263 batters with at least 400 PA from 2020-21) to go along with a 36.6 K% (261st), 57.0 Contact% (263rd) and -0.3 WAR (254th).

 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

Keston’s 2022 peaked on August 22nd when he had a 144 wRC+ with a 42.8 K%, .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% through 173 PAs. Those 173 PAs ranked 12th on the team and worked out to an average of 1.43 PA/G.

"WHY ARENT THEY PLAYING HOME MORE?!?!?!" - the internet in general.

From August 23rd through the end of the season Hiura posted a 63 wRC+ with a 39.8 K%, .319 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB% over 93 PAs. Those 93 PAs ranked 8th on the team and worked out to an average of 2.27 PA/G.

They played him more down the stretch, and he stunk. Turned out keeping up that .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% was unsustainable...just like the front office likely thought it was, which is probably why they didn't play him more often to begin with.

It's not like he had earned regular playing time entering 2022 after posting a 72 wRC+ (251st out of 263 batters with at least 400 PA from 2020-21) to go along with a 36.6 K% (261st), 57.0 Contact% (263rd) and -0.3 WAR (254th).

 

This! Thank you for digging all of this info up. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

This is pretty much why I want him gone. There are flashes that make me think that he might turn into something, then he proceeds to K 10 times in the next 4 games. Enigma.

I agree that Hiura is walking a tightrope that has virtually no margin for error. After watching Miguel Sano turn into a really bad player almost overnight, I'm very aware that Keston could implode at any moment.

With that said, lacking a better option, may as well roll him out there until he proves he's either good or bad at hitting a baseball. My first choice is to find a lefty masher to replace him but I'm increasingly convinced that is not the route the Brewers will take.

[Brewcrew82]

39 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree that Hiura is walking a tightrope that has virtually no margin for error. After watching Miguel Sano turn into a really bad player almost overnight, I'm very aware that Keston could implode at any moment.

With that said, lacking a better option, may as well roll him out there until he proves he's either good or bad at hitting a baseball. My first choice is to find a lefty masher to replace him but I'm increasingly convinced that is not the route the Brewers will take.

Do you not think Jesse Winker is a better option at DH? 

Without him DHing against RHP, I just don't see a place for him on this team. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Do you not think Jesse Winker is a better option at DH? 

Without him DHing against RHP, I just don't see a place for him on this team. 

Oh, I definitely think Winker is a better option, I would just keep Hiura as a 26th man who slots in as often as seems prudent. Given that about 70% of starters are right-handed, he’d get his reps.

Which is also why I’d be happy to replace Hiura with someone who hits lefties. 

[Brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I definitely think Winker is a better option, I would just keep Hiura as a 26th man who slots in as often as seems prudent. Given that about 70% of starters are right-handed, he’d get his reps.

Which is also why I’d be happy to replace Hiura with someone who hits lefties. 

Gotcha. I, too, would like another lefty masher. Too bad we didn't want to go with Wil Myers. Though, Longoria is still out there. And adding Contreras definitely helps.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Gotcha. I, too, would like another lefty masher. Too bad we didn't want to go with Wil Myers. Though, Longoria is still out there. And adding Contreras definitely helps.

I also really wanted Myers because he plays outfield, which seems like a natural fit alongside Winker and Yelich vs LHP.

But Longoria is a fine substitute, he's probably my first choice of remaining free agents.

[Robocaller]

If Hiura was a LHB and performed as he had in 2022, he would have been used better and would have fewer people wanting to stake him to an ant hill.

 

[rickh150]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I definitely think Winker is a better option, I would just keep Hiura as a 26th man who slots in as often as seems prudent. Given that about 70% of starters are right-handed, he’d get his reps.

Which is also why I’d be happy to replace Hiura with someone who hits lefties. 

407 ABs ; 651 OPS against righties in 2022.
Borderline comedy here for people to call Hiura a really bad hitter and Winker a better option based on the recent past. I mean, if you hate Hiura and the “awful” 2022 he had, fine. Then you really, really have to have some serious doubt with Winker when his OPS against righties in 2022 is like 200 points than Hiura. Winker has to get a lot better and healthier, and likely get younger magically to even do what Hiura did even last season, which was apparently horrible to the same people that are loving the Winker signing with no hesitation.  Makes no sense. 

I take Hiura’s 2022 numbers without hesitation for my 2023 DH against righties this year. 
 

[Brewcrew82]

35 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

407 ABs ; 651 OPS against righties in 2022.
Borderline comedy here for people to call Hiura a really bad hitter and Winker a better option based on the recent past. I mean, if you hate Hiura and the “awful” 2022 he had, fine. Then you really, really have to have some serious doubt with Winker when his OPS against righties in 2022 is like 200 points than Hiura. Winker has to get a lot better and healthier, and likely get younger magically to even do what Hiura did even last season, which was apparently horrible to the same people that are loving the Winker signing with no hesitation.  Makes no sense. 

I take Hiura’s 2022 numbers without hesitation for my 2023 DH against righties this year. 
 

"Likely get younger magically"??? He's 29, not 35. Countless players throughout the history of the game have bounced back after an injury-plagued season. 

Winker career OPS against RHP: .885; 2020-2021: .932 and 1.070. 

That's not just better than Hiura. That's Soto, Harper, etc./top 10 level stuff.

Even in 2022, which you keep referring to like nothing else matters, Hiura barely outproduced Winker (115 vs. 109 wRC+), and in SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER at-bats to boot. Why? Because even when Winker wasn't hitting, he walked and got on base at an elite level. Besides making contact, Hiura has been averse to walking throughout his career. 

Borderline comedy for you to continue to try to make us believe that Hiura is a better hitter than Winker despite what the career stats so plainly say. 

[sveumrules]

23 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

407 ABs ; 651 OPS against righties in 2022.
Borderline comedy here for people to call Hiura a really bad hitter and Winker a better option based on the recent past. I mean, if you hate Hiura and the “awful” 2022 he had, fine. Then you really, really have to have some serious doubt with Winker when his OPS against righties in 2022 is like 200 points than Hiura. Winker has to get a lot better and healthier, and likely get younger magically to even do what Hiura did even last season, which was apparently horrible to the same people that are loving the Winker signing with no hesitation.  Makes no sense. 

I take Hiura’s 2022 numbers without hesitation for my 2023 DH against righties this year. 
 

One year samples are too small to draw meaningful conclusions from.

Keston has been in MLB since 2019, here is how both players have performed vs RHP during that time…

Hiura: 743 PA | 34.5 K% | 122 wRC+
Winker: 1250 PA | 17.0 K% | 133 wRC+

Seems pretty close (besides the PA and K%), but Most of Hiura’s damage vs RHP was done in 2019 with the juiced ball (265 PA | 30.2 K% | 159 wRC+ | .415 BABIP).

Since then, from 2020-22 Keston has posted a 102 wRC+ and 36.8 K% with a .294 BABIP in 478 PA vs RHP.

Over that same 2020-22 time frame Winker is at 137 wRC+ and 17.2 K% in 916 PA vs RHP.

[Robocaller]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

"Likely get younger magically"??? He's 29, not 35. Countless players throughout the history of the game have bounced back after an injury-plagued season. 

Winker career OPS against RHP: .885; 2020-2021: .932 and 1.070. 

That's not just better than Hiura. That's Soto, Harper, etc./top 10 level stuff.

Even in 2022, which you keep referring to like nothing else matters, Hiura barely outproduced Winker (115 vs. 109 wRC+), and in SIGNIFICANTLY FEWER at-bats to boot. Why? Because even when Winker wasn't hitting, he walked and got on base at an elite level. Besides making contact, Hiura has been averse to walking throughout his career. 

Borderline comedy for you to continue to try to make us believe that Hiura is a better hitter than Winker despite what their career stats say. 

I'd make a case we have no idea what to expect from Winker because he'll be recovering from two surgeries after having a very atypical season in 2022.  He could revert to his pre-2022 self, or he could continue to fall off a cliff. No one knows 100%. I suspect he'll be closer to his pre-2022 performance, but there's literally no telling.

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I'd make a case we have no idea what to expect from Winker because he'll be recovering from two surgeries after having a very atypical season in 2022.  He could revert to his pre-2022 self, or he could continue to fall off a cliff. No one knows 100%. I suspect he'll be closer to his pre-2022 performance, but there's literally no telling.

Yeah, I'm not saying it's a guarantee or anything. That would not square with reality. But the chances are relatively low imo that Winker has suddenly fallen off a cliff at the age of 28 after 5 straight seasons of high-level to elite hitting. Even in 2022, he was still an above average hitter.

Throw in the fact that he's going from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors to a place where he absolutely rakes and a division that he absolutely rakes in, and I'm feeling quite optimistic about him as our primary DH in 2023. 

[Robocaller]

I just had the thought that the only reason Hiura is still on the 40 man is to hedge their bets in case Winker needs more time to recover (or if he has fallen off the cliff). 

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

I just had the thought that the only reason Hiura is still on the 40 man is to hedge their bets in case Winker needs more time to recover (or if he has fallen off the cliff). 

Or they haven't found a taker or a trade that's to their liking...Still a ways to go. 

[Robocaller]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Or they haven't found a taker or a trade that's to their liking...Still a ways to go. 

Yeah, that used to be my thought. But the most they're going to get is an A-ball lottery ticket, and they probably could have gotten that.

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Yeah, that used to be my thought. But the most they're going to get is an A-ball lottery ticket, and they probably could have gotten that.

Yeah, we'll see. I wouldn't be absolutely opposed to Hiura being on the opening day roster. Just not as someone who we'd be relying on to play a major role in this offense.