Article: The Curious Case of Keston Hiura: What Will His Role Be in 2023?

[rickh150]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I think that the Brewers likely found Hiura's 42% K rate inexcusable as well.

Who cares if he can put up a .866 OPS!! Just play him. Who in their right mind can say they wouldn’t welcome this kind of production if it cost another K per game instead of a grounder to 2B?

[rickh150]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Hiura had a few hot stretches that propped up his OPS. Otherwise he was a dumpster fire.

Jerked around all season… letting him DH low in the order all season, especially against righties, would have been beneficial to him and team. No doubt about that. The bar at DH was soooo low. Of course.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Who cares if he can put up a .866 OPS!! Just play him. Who in their right mind can say they wouldn’t welcome this kind of production if it cost another K per game instead of a grounder to 2B?

Keston was never going to maintain that production with the 42% K-rate and a HR-FB ratio of over 40%. Brewers eventually gave in and started him regularly in late-August, and Keston proceeded to OPS below .500...

Now we have a much better option in Jesse Winker, so this discussion is kind of pointless. 

[Jopal78]

6 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Who cares if he can put up a .866 OPS!! Just play him. Who in their right mind can say they wouldn’t welcome this kind of production if it cost another K per game instead of a grounder to 2B?

In today's baseball game, the manager is well aware of players' stats, splits, metrics, etc. In fact, all the teams employ people to have that information at their disposal. 

Yet despite being aware of the stats and metrics with Hiura, they played other players most of the time. Thus there was a reason he didn't play more which trumped his OPS vs. RIH pitching, and it's too bad none of the journalists on the beat ever asked the reason.

[rickh150]

41 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

In today's baseball game, the manager is well aware of players' stats, splits, metrics, etc. In fact, all the teams employ people to have that information at their disposal. 

Yet despite being aware of the stats and metrics with Hiura, they played other players most of the time. Thus there was a reason he didn't play more which trumped his OPS vs. RIH pitching, and it's too bad none of the journalists on the beat ever asked the reason.

“There was a reason…” yet you cannot say what that reason was or is. Blind faith is a defense, I guess. 

[rickh150]

47 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Keston was never going to maintain that production with the 42% K-rate and a HR-FB ratio of over 40%. Brewers eventually gave in and started him regularly in late-August, and Keston proceeded to OPS below .500...

Now we have a much better option in Jesse Winker, so this discussion is kind of pointless. 

Can’t even discuss the stupidness of last year’s DH situation when we got this new guy to solve our DH issues. Pointless.

Winker 407 PA; .651 OPS against RHP in 2022.  
 

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

“There was a reason…” yet you cannot say what that reason was or is. Blind faith is a defense, I guess. 

42% K rate (almost 50% in September/October), team-high BABIP (.366 as of Aug 28), HR-FB of 40%, and a sub .500 OPS from September on (once he started receiving regular at-bats) all seem like non-blind reasons to me...

[brewcrewdue80]

On 12/23/2022 at 7:30 PM, nate82 said:

Doubtful as Hiura had short period where he was good and then was basically garbage.  In September Hiura played in 4 less games than McCutchen and only put up a 41 wRC+ while McCutchen put up a 98 wRC+.

Hiura's splits by month:

There is a pattern here he has an unsustainable BABIP which when it crashed his results started to come crashing back down.  A .400 and .500 BABIP are not sustainable.  Hiura is probably more of a .750-.800 OPS player than he is a .900+ OPS player. 

 

As for Hiura's future it is not with the Brewers.  I fully expect him to be traded and he won't be on the Brewers OD roster. 

The splits graph has a consistent .300-310 BABIP with 2 months 400+ and 500+, the .500 plus was in 7games used.

I think your seeing .300+ BaBIP displays how good a hitter he could be if he wouldn't (as noted above) swing and miss pitches that are in the zone.  That .400+BABIP is reasonable when he's hitting line drives during a hot streak. Not full season but he could carry multiple games for the offense with that month.  Just can't maintain a 20-23pct k rate to see the value his bat provides.

 

I would believe there are teams to trade him to. But I don't believe teams are meeting the asking price(probably a valuable lottery ticket prospect included)  Also we put out there teams that are not in competitive to use and play him.  That's pretty few right now with 3 of them in our division.  Then you have Hiura's defense liabilities and fitting him with that teams roster current make up.  Take KC. Their big contract player is Sal Perez a C/DH. They have a top 50 prospect who's Lefty graduate at 1b. And Hunter Dozier another top 3 paid player on KC who is an infield Util at 2b/1b/DH.  They may be in mid rebuild with no chance at 80 wins, but have no use for Hiura.  Texas? They have a 155game starting stud 1b in Nathaniel Lowe.  Why acquire Hiura to only take up games as DH. 

I think in the end this is a trade to Pittsburgh like we've done in the past for a scrap RP the Brewers can option this year and may have below 4ERA ability. And a prospect that is a swing SP likely RP who's a year away from Rule 5 protection and turning 25 this uear.

[Brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Can’t even discuss the stupidness of last year’s DH situation when we got this new guy to solve our DH issues. Pointless.

Winker 407 PA; .651 OPS against RHP in 2022.  
 

Yes, because one injury plagued season in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in baseball tells the whole story. Here are the missing chapters of your story (which is like the whole book in this case): .885 career OPS against RHP in 1388 at-bats...Top 10 OPS in baseball against RHP from 2020-2021 (with guys like Soto, Harper, etc.). Good grief. 

[rickh150]

Hiura never received regular at bats at any point in 2022 with the Brewers. Nor a position, nor a spot in the order, nor a place on a team.  Jerked around positions, pinch hit, sent down. This is not debatable. Show me three weeks of consistency anywhere. This is not news. It’s old news. 

Hiura could have hit much worse and still been a better DH option for us, especially against righties. Again, I am not a “Hiura is great” guy. He was the best option for our team.

[rickh150]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes, because one injury plagued season in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in baseball tells the whole story. Here are the missing chapters of your story (which is like the whole book in this case): .885 career OPS against RHP in 1388 at-bats...Top 10 OPS in baseball against RHP from 2020-2021 (with guys like Soto, Harper, etc.). Good grief. 

I hope you are right.
He was meh to bad against RHP last season, though. Not pointless to bring that up. He is now healthy..you know this?

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Hiura never received regular at bats at any point in 2022 with the Brewers. Nor a position, nor a spot in the order, nor a place on a team.  Jerked around positions, pinch hit, sent down. This is not debatable. Show me three weeks of consistency anywhere. This is not news. It’s old news. 

Hiura could have hit much worse and still been a better DH option for us, especially against righties. Again, I am not a “Hiura is great” guy. He was the best option for our team.

Pure fiction. Look at this game log from Aug 17 to Sept 9. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

22 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

“There was a reason…” yet you cannot say what that reason was or is. Blind faith is a defense, I guess. 

It is almost assuredly the K rate. Striking out at that rate simply doesn't equate to a player who can be a positive member of a lineup full time over a whole season. 

[Brewcrew82]

Surgery in the offseason. Mariners say those injuries were a reason for his struggles

Then, right from the horse's mouth: https://www.mlb.com/video/jesse-winker-s-current-mindset. Says he's healthy and in a much better spot health-wise after his surgeries. 

[Outlander]

The Mariners said that but then they traded him. There is a risk with counting on Winker to be the every day DH but considering the potential I think it is worth it, certainly not a sure thing though. Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see him on the IL more than he is active.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Outlander said:

The Mariners said that but then they traded him. There is a risk with counting on Winker to be the every day DH but considering the potential I think it is worth it, certainly not a sure thing though. Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see him on the IL more than he is active.

They traded him because he wasn't a fit in their clubhouse and they needed a second baseman. Winker isn't a sure thing, but considering he's still 29 and was a well above average to borderline elite hitter every season before then, I like the chances of success. Certainly a better option than Hiura. 

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Whether you think it was reasonable or not, they paid McCutcheon to be the DH last year. Hard to blame them for continuing to seek a return on that investment. 

 

You don't think it was important to seek a return on a #1 draft pick investment, that mashed righties?  We desperately needed hitting last year and there were times the guy had one or two at bats a week, once even going 8 games with no plate appearances.

Hiura was mis managed, simple as that.

I know it goes against the front office can do no wrong narrative and all...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, TURBO said:

You don't think it was important to seek a return on a #1 draft pick investment, that mashed righties?  We desperately needed hitting last year and there were times the guy had one or two at bats a week, once even going 8 games with no plate appearances.

Hiura was mis managed, simple as that.

I know it goes against the front office can do no wrong narrative and all...

I agree he probably should have played more than he did at times. But as pointed out earlier, when they did finally decide to use him as a regular, he was trash. The guy is an enigma. Those types are difficult to work with. That's Why I'd be very surprised to see him back. Counsell gave every indication that he just wanted the guy gone. Square peg, round hole with this roster.

And the "mashing righties" thing is kind of a misnomer. 

[rickh150]

16 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Pure fiction. Look at this game log from Aug 17 to Sept 9. 

Well, he did bat fairly consistently there, that is true and I’ll give you that. Good job.
Yet, overall, no way is this like sticking with him at a position and spot in the order. In your span, He also was pulled from five of those games not finishing them, hitting in five different spots in the order, pinch hit a couple of times, and played at three positions (including DH).

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, TURBO said:

You don't think it was important to seek a return on a #1 draft pick investment, that mashed righties?  We desperately needed hitting last year and there were times the guy had one or two at bats a week, once even going 8 games with no plate appearances.

Hiura was mis managed, simple as that.

I know it goes against the front office can do no wrong narrative and all...

I agree that the team mismanaged the whole Andrew McCutchen situation. First, by the mere act of signing him, and then, second, by subbornly batting him cleanup against RHP when it was clear at this point in his career that he was a below average player against them. 

But I disagree that Hiura was mismanaged. You can't rely on hitters who strikeout as often as Hiura does to be a consistent cog in your lineup. 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Hiura had a few hot stretches that propped up his OPS. Otherwise he was a dumpster fire.

C'mon, all hitters have hot streaks that improve their OPS.  That is a poor take.  You could say the same about every single player.  He needed consistent playing time, and a two week stretch late in the season isn't consistent.  He was mis handled, and it's quite obvious.

I hope that once we cut ties with him, via trade, or DFA, that he goes on to have a great career.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

Well, he did bat fairly consistently there, that is true and I’ll give you that. Good job.
Yet, overall, no way is this like sticking with him at a position and spot in the order. In your span, He also was pulled from five of those games not finishing them, hitting in five different spots in the order, pinch hit a couple of times, and played at three positions (including DH).

He was pulled because he was basically a K waiting to happen. That doesn't help in the late innings.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Congratulations, everyone, after reading this thread I am now convinced that Keston Hiura will both be out of baseball within the next two weeks and will ultimately turn into a right-handed Ted Williams.

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

Well, he did bat fairly consistently there, that is true and I’ll give you that. Good job.
Yet, overall, no way is this like sticking with him at a position and spot in the order. In your span, He also was pulled from five of those games not finishing them, hitting in five different spots in the order, pinch hit a couple of times, and played at three positions (including DH).

If Keston could field a position adequately and his OPS wasn't propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...he'd probably get more consistent playing time.

Since he can't field a position adequately and his OPS was propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...his playing time was inconsistent.

Seems pretty straight forward to me.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

C'mon, all hitters have hot streaks that improve their OPS.  That is a poor take.  You could say the same about every single player.  He needed consistent playing time, and a two week stretch late in the season isn't consistent.  He was mis handled, and it's quite obvious.

I hope that once we cut ties with him, via trade, or DFA, that he goes on to have a great career.

Me too. Seems like a good guy. It just ain't working here. Watching his approach at the plate makes me ill.

I was once a HUGE Hiura fan. I thought he was going to be a perennial .300+, 30 HR guy. But the whiff rate was concerning even as a rookie, and it has just continued getting worse, to the point where it simply isn't sustainable to have him in a lineup everyday.