Article: The Curious Case of Keston Hiura: What Will His Role Be in 2023?

[Robocaller]

I think it's best for both parties to separate.

I wish he had gotten 20+ more of McCutchen's starts vs. RH starters. We'd have a good sense of his value. But he was misused in 2022.

I think we're waiting for some team to offer an A-ball lottery ticket for him. Maybe if he's hitting .400 in S.T. and some team has an injury, we might get more.

[Austin Tatious]

I’ve been a huge fan of Hiura’s and I’ve been wrong to date about him.  I saw an electric bat coming up who would be a complete hitter in terms of average, extra base hits etc.  He’s shown flashes of being that guy but for three years he’s been plagued by strikeouts, and missing badly in the zone.  What’s worse, his role is complicated by the inability to hit lefties despite being a right handed hitter etc  

Honestly even if he had good splits against lefties, he could carve out a role splitting time with Rowdy or at DH.  But he hits righties better and that makes a mess out of it.  

Nothing would make me happier than to see him succeed here but the path to a consistent role seems elusive. Perhaps he changes his approach from the launch angle frenzy and shows us that electric line drive bat that enticed us to begin with.  Just from a layperson’s view, if you watch slow motions from when he’d miss in the strike zone, he looked like he was missing due to the upper cut.  Obviously he and the staff would have seen all that too and it didn’t seem to get better. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 12/22/2022 at 2:45 PM, TURBO said:

Maybe the Reds guaranteed more playing time than us?

Very possible but the Reds are virtually guaranteed to flip him in July, too. It just seems like a weird choice to me if more competitive teams were in the mix for my services.

[edfunderburk]

13 hours ago, nate82 said:

As for Hiura's future it is not with the Brewers.  I fully expect him to be traded and he won't be on the Brewers OD roster. 

I want this to be true, but I’m not sure he has any value to another MLB team. I believe his salary is $2M … not sure anyone will take that on “hoping” they can resurrect his career. The fact that he’s out of options could lead to a DFA - which I would prefer over keeping him on the roster. 

[rickh150]

On 12/24/2022 at 9:27 AM, edfunderburk said:

I want this to be true, but I’m not sure he has any value to another MLB team. I believe his salary is $2M … not sure anyone will take that on “hoping” they can resurrect his career. The fact that he’s out of options could lead to a DFA - which I would prefer over keeping him on the roster. 

Better OPS than Adames, even with the misuse and Adames hitting #2 all year.

[sveumrules]

9 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Better OPS than Adames, even with the misuse and Adames hitting #2 all year.

If Hiura could field like Adames this might mean something.

As it stands, Willy’s combination of bat and glove yielded 4.7 WAR last year.

Hiura’s combination of bat and glove yielded 0.8 WAR.

That’s an apples to pumpkin comparison.

[Outlander]

He would be a useful player if he could hit lefties because he then could play 1B/DH/2b platoon but there isn't much evidence he can do so at the major league level. As it stands now Tellez, Winker maybe even Turang could hit better than him against lefties so not a lot of reason to have him on the roster. If the team and Hiura think it is fixable that is great but doesn't seem like a good plan to count on that.

[Jopal78]

On 12/24/2022 at 9:27 AM, edfunderburk said:

I want this to be true, but I’m not sure he has any value to another MLB team. I believe his salary is $2M … not sure anyone will take that on “hoping” they can resurrect his career. The fact that he’s out of options could lead to a DFA - which I would prefer over keeping him on the roster. 

Right!, No team is going to give the Brewers assets in exchange for Hiura, when the odds are pretty good he will be DFA'd by Milwaukee at some point. Hiura doesn't have a path to regular playing time, and is out of options which I'm sure he knows is not a good position to be in.

Since arbitration salaries are not guaranteed until opening day there is no risk for Milwaukee bringing him to camp as depth.

In defense of Hiura it's also worth noting that so far  the 2017 MLB draft   is shaping up to have been sort of thin on hitting talent, and especially from College.

Hiura has the most at bats of any player in that draft class, followed closely by Pavin Smith. Hiura's career rWAR is 1.3 to Smith's 0.4. Hiura's rWAR is 7th to date of all players taken in 2017 regardless of position. 

Looking at the other college hitters taken in the first round:

#4 overall pick-Brendan McKay (TB) drafted to pitch and hit, solely pitched in the majors, tore his UCL in his 13th game and was released (then ultimately resigned to a minor league deal).

#6 overall pick-Austin Beck (Oak) is still spinning his wheels in the minors with a .252/.303/.384

#8 Adam Haseley (PHI) was traded to the White Sox in '22 for a minor league pitcher and former 14th round pick in 2019. 

#10 Jo Adell (LAA) similar to Hiura has nothing to prove in the minors, but has struggled even more to produce in major leagues (.215/.259/.356 in 557 PAs)

#17 Evan White (SEA) won a gold glove at 1B his rookie year, but produced .165/.235/.308 so far at the plate in the majors before suffering a hip injury then missing half of 2021 and all of 2022, and seemingly losing his spot to Ty France in the process. 

#22 Logan Warmouth (TOR) is 27 and has produced .243/.335/.355 in 1700 minor league PAs.

#23 Jeren Kendall (LAD) will be 27 in February and has yet to reach AAA with a minor league slash line of  .209/.303/.390

#32 Jeter Downs (CIN) has been traded twice and was recently put on waivers by Boston. 

#33 Kevin Merrell (OAK) is 27, has yet to debut in the majors and is with his 3rd organization (MIN).

#34 Brian Miller (MIA) will turn 28 next August and in 2200 minor league PAs has a slash line of .285/.341/.375.

#34 Brent Rooker (MIN) has also been traded twice and was recently acquired by Oakland off waivers from Kansas City. 

 

 

 

[sveumrules]

18 minutes ago, Outlander said:

He would be a useful player if he could hit lefties because he then could play 1B/DH/2b platoon but there isn't much evidence he can do so at the major league level. As it stands now Tellez, Winker maybe even Turang could hit better than him against lefties so not a lot of reason to have him on the roster. If the team and Hiura think it is fixable that is great but doesn't seem like a good plan to count on that.

In an intuitive sense, I wonder if Hiura struggles vs LHP because they have a better approach angle to the hole in his swing up & in?

Since 2019 there are 226 batters with at least 300 PAs vs LHP, Keston’s 65 wRC+ ranks 221st.

Career vs LHP Hiura is at 39.5 K% and 29.9 HardHit% compared to 34.5 K% and 41.4 HardHit% vs RHP.

If Keston is indeed gone by OD that would be one more member of the Addition By Subtraction Club for the Brewers 2022 WOAHs vs LHP…

Hiura (109 PAs | 75 wRC+), Omar (39 PAs | 75 wRC+), Wong (96 PAs | 37 wRC+) and Lorenzo (49 PAs | -17 wRC+) combined for about -17.5 wRAA vs LHP.

Caratini (123 PAs | 66 wRC+ | -4.7 wRAA) could be less exposed vs LHP with the addition of Contreras as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

28 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Right!, No team is going to give the Brewers assets in exchange for Hiura, when the odds are pretty good he will be DFA'd by Milwaukee at some point. Hiura doesn't have a path to regular playing time, and is out of options which I'm sure he knows is not a good position to be in.

Since arbitration salaries are not guaranteed until opening day there is no risk for Milwaukee bringing him to camp as depth, and maybe he'll figure it out and force their hand to keep him, but at this time he profiles as a journeyman type player who brings some power but not much else. 

Hiura won’t fetch much but I think a team would give up *something* for him. He’s a pretty good reclamation project for a mediocre A ball prospect. If a team is convinced they can fix Keston, he could turn into a valuable DH or be flipped for better prospects down the road. 

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

In an intuitive sense, I wonder if Hiura struggles vs LHP because they have a better approach angle to the hole in his swing up & in?

 

It is not just up & in that is the problem for Hiura it is basically the whole upper part of the strike zone that is the problem. 

 

Since someone compared Adames to Hiura.

 

By far Adames is the better player than Hiura and it is not even close. 

[Jopal78]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Hiura won’t fetch much but I think a team would give up *something* for him. He’s a pretty good reclamation project for a mediocre A ball prospect. If a team is convinced they can fix Keston, he could turn into a valuable DH or be flipped for better prospects down the road. 

In the real world, teams don't trade for a player hoping to "flip" him later and come out ahead. Somebody very well could want to take a shot on Hiura, given his draft status and homerun total, but since  he'll likely be freely available talent before opening day, it's hard to see the Brewers getting anything but "cash considerations" or the PTNBL. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

19 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

In the real world, teams don't trade for a player hoping to "flip" him later and come out ahead. Somebody very well could want to take a shot on Hiura, given his draft status and homerun total, but since  he'll likely be freely available talent before opening day, it's hard to see the Brewers getting anything but "cash considerations" or the PTNBL. 

I agree that a team would likely view Hiura as a useful piece on their MLB than someone to flip down the road.

And the difference between what I’m talking about and a PTBNL is kinda non-existent. Like I said, Hiura won’t fetch much because his upside is so low due to lack of position. 

[rickh150]

The whole “he can’t hit” thing is just off. He can’t field, sure. With our unsettled player at DH last year, it should have been an easy “let Hiura bat DH against righties”… bat him low in the lineup and let him produce. He was off the charts good most of the year against righties, better than almost anyone in baseball. Yet, we wanted Cutch to get his at bats for some reason. And yes again, his overall OPS was better than our #2 hitter. Some surely do not like that stat. It doesn’t fit their take on Hiura.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

It is not just up & in that is the problem for Hiura it is basically the whole upper part of the strike zone that is the problem. 

 

Since someone compared Adames to Hiura.

 

By far Adames is the better player than Hiura and it is not even close. 

Player? Not close, Sure. Not many can play SS well. Hitter? Well, it was pretty close last year one way or another.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

25 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

The whole “he can’t hit” thing is just off. He can’t field, sure. With our unsettled player at DH last year, it should have been an easy “let Hiura bat DH against righties”… bat him low in the lineup and let him produce. He was off the charts good most of the year against righties, better than almost anyone in baseball. Yet, we wanted Cutch to get his at bats for some reason. And yes again, his overall OPS was better than our #2 hitter. Some surely do not like that stat. It doesn’t fit their take on Hiura.

Sorry, a right-handed hitter that cannot play defense and looks like a pitcher hitting against lefties is not going to find a role in most MLB teams lineups. This wasn't a Counsell problem or a front office problem. It was a case of a player who has simply not grown and evolved as a player. 

[SF70]

15 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Player? Not close, Sure. Not many can play SS well. Hitter? Well, it was pretty close last year one way or another.

The only serviceable position Hiura can play is 1B and with his not being able to hit LHP that doesn’t work either. DH will likely go to Winker/Contreras/Yelich, so I don’t see how the team can roster him at all. Trade forthcoming.

[rickh150]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Sorry, a right-handed hitter that cannot play defense and looks like a pitcher hitting against lefties is not going to find a role in most MLB teams lineups. This wasn't a Counsell problem or a front office problem. It was a case of a player who has simply not grown and evolved as a player. 

Man, only if the NL had the DH. 

Hiura hit righties well and we needed a DH last season. There was a match last season and for whatever reason, CC blew it. Hiura could have bat A LOT MORE against righties and DH last season. Yep, no glove, yep lower value because of Ks and whatever. There was a match and a need last year for a DH against righties and Hiura could’ve and should’ve played 100 at bats or more against them. I haven’t heard a reasonable response to this YET.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

Man, only if the NL had the DH. 

Hiura hit righties well and we needed a DH last season. There was a match last season and for whatever reason, CC blew it. Hiura could have bat A LOT MORE against righties and DH last season. Yep, no glove, yep lower value because of Ks and whatever. There was a match and a need last year for a DH against righties and Hiura could’ve and should’ve played 100 at bats or more against them. I haven’t heard a reasonable response to this YET.

Whether you think it was reasonable or not, they paid McCutcheon to be the DH last year. Hard to blame them for continuing to seek a return on that investment. 

Honestly, as a fan, Hiura ABs are pretty infuriating to watch. It wouldn't surprise me if the team's management and front office had a similar opinion, which would explain the sporadic playing time.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hiura was more a victim of having a minor league option left when he was demoted early in the 2022 season, which happened after he was primarily the DH option against lefties and McCutcheon was DH-ing against righties and then playing the OF against lefty starters because nobody else on the team was hitting worth a lick.

In the Brewers' spirit of maintaining roster flexibility, the fact that Hiura is a poor defender with reverse splits crushed his role as a DH platoon asset against RHP and a late inning PH option off the bench.

I was against the Brewers signing McCutcheon from the day the ink was still wet on that contract, because I wanted them to give Hiura the DH role full time on this roster and give him extended playing time without fear of being benched or shuttled back and forth to AAA every time a 14th pitcher came off the DL and needed a roster spot.  I thought it was a poor allocation of limited financial resources and didn't have significant upside - the only upside were if McCutcheon had a platoon-mate to be the DH against righties.  Hiura was still that option, but the roster wasn't managed that way early in the season when it would've helped solidify Keston's role on the MLB roster.

Assuming Hiura is still on the Brewers' 40 man roster come spring training, this is a make or break spring for him as a Brewer because the minor league options are gone.  Like it or not with all the warts, Hiura still had the 4th highest OPS on the team for hitters with more than 100 ABs last season behind only Renfroe, Rowdy, and Wong.

 

[rickh150]

31 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Sorry, a right-handed hitter that cannot play defense and looks like a pitcher hitting against lefties is not going to find a role in most MLB teams lineups. This wasn't a Counsell problem or a front office problem. It was a case of a player who has simply not grown and evolved as a player. 

Hiura- 138 AB vs righties… .866 OPS;

            98 PA as DH both righties/lefties…. .949 OPS

McCutchen-  .685 OPS vs righties

             360 PA as DH both righties/lefties… .653 OPS

 

[rickh150]

Just now, rickh150 said:

Hiura- 138 AB vs righties… .866 OPS;

            98 PA as DH both righties/lefties…. .949 OPS

McCutchen-  .685 OPS vs righties

             360 PA as DH both righties/lefties… .653 OPS

 

360 ABs with that production as a DH…inexcusable.

[rickh150]

26 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Whether you think it was reasonable or not, they paid McCutcheon to be the DH last year. Hard to blame them for continuing to seek a return on that investment. 

Honestly, as a fan, Hiura ABs are pretty infuriating to watch. It wouldn't surprise me if the team's management and front office had a similar opinion, which would explain the sporadic playing time.

Not reasonable to continue playing him DH at that production. Change course and play random people there as a way to manage rest.. that would be better. Or play the guy who was mashing RHP and mashing as a DH.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

360 ABs with that production as a DH…inexcusable.

I think that the Brewers likely found Hiura's 42% K rate inexcusable as well.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

5 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Not reasonable to continue playing him DH at that production. Change course and play random people there as a way to manage rest.. that would be better. Or play the guy who was mashing RHP and mashing as a DH.

Hiura had a few hot stretches that propped up his OPS. Otherwise he was a dumpster fire.