Article: Steamer's Projections of the Brewers Rotation

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Brewers rotation has been the team's strength the last few seasons and looks to be so again in 2023. We'll break down what the rotation will look like in the coming season.

Despite injuries to top-of-the-rotation starters Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, the Brewers starting staff once again bolstered the team amid a season where the bullpen struggled at times, especially after ace closer Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres. The Brewers' top seven starters from 2022 remain with the team as of mid-December. Let's take a look at the projections and break things down.

Name	Team	GS	G	IP	W	L	QS	SV	HLD	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9-WAR	ADP
Corbin Burnes	MIL	32	32	197.0	13	10	21	0	0	161	69	21	239	55	1.10	10.92	2.51	3.15	3.03	4.9	4.8	999.0
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	31	31	182.0	12	10	18	0	0	156	70	23	209	51	1.13	10.29	2.50	3.47	3.39	3.7	3.8	999.0
Aaron Ashby	MIL	21	37	127.0	8	7	10	0	1	110	48	12	138	53	1.28	9.78	3.76	3.43	3.51	2.1	2.5	999.0
Freddy Peralta	MIL	26	26	138.0	9	9	11	0	0	119	61	19	150	52	1.24	9.80	3.41	3.99	4.04	2.0	2.1	999.0
Eric Lauer	MIL	28	28	156.0	9	10	12	0	0	148	74	24	150	59	1.32	8.69	3.39	4.30	4.42	1.3	1.8	999.0
Adrian Houser	MIL	13	61	117.0	6	7	5	0	1	122	58	14	88	47	1.44	6.76	3.62	4.46	4.49	0.5	0.4	999.0
Jason Alexander	MIL	5	43	65.0	3	4	2	0	1	70	32	8	46	21	1.39	6.32	2.90	4.40	4.47	0.1	0.1	999.0
Robert Gasser	MIL	2	2	9.0	1	1	1	0	0	9	5	1	8	4	1.38	7.69	3.53	4.52	4.71	0.0	0.1	999.0
Ethan Small	MIL	3	37	52.0	3	3	1	0	1	49	25	7	48	25	1.42	8.35	4.40	4.33	4.61	0.0	0.2	999.

 

Corbin Burnes was once again the unquestioned ace of the staff; after winning the National League Cy Young in 2021, he followed up in 2022 by leading the senior circuit with 243 strikeouts while sporting a 2.94 E.R.A, 3.14 FIP, to go along with his 12-8 record, while finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting. The Brewers are getting close to a point where they'll have to decide about his near-term future in Milwaukee, but for 2023, they can ride it out and hold onto Burnes if they're in or close to a playoff spot. General Manager Matt Arnold's hand isn't forced just yet, but trading Burnes could become a reality if the Brewers fade from playoff contention by mid-summer. Steamer projections have solid confidence in a follow-up season from Burnes, with an ERA just a shade over three and projecting almost 240 strikeouts. 

Brandon Woodruff played a fine second fiddle to Burnes in 2022, going 13-4 with a 3.05 ERA (3.08 FIP) along with 190 strikeouts in just 153 1/3 innings pitched. Woodruff spent a few weeks on the disabled list in June and returned strong, giving up two or fewer earned runs in nine of his next 11 starts. After a five earned run hiccup against the Diamondbacks, he finished out September by going six or more innings and allowing two or fewer runs in six straight starts. A healthy Woodruff looks like a safe bet to be a quality number two again in 2023, with Steamer projections of a 3.43 E.R.A and 209 strikeouts. Like Burnes, however, the Brewers have some tough decisions about Woody's future in Milwaukee, regarding whether they will trade, keep, or even try to extend him. 

Freddy Peralta pitched well to start the year but spent a fair amount of time on the disabled list. Steamer projections have Peralta notched at 26 starts, 138 innings pitched, and a 3.99 ERA and 2.0 WAR. Peralta has pitched well when healthy and, entering his age 27 season, should be reaching his peak, so those numbers seem on the conservative side, but Peralta has to get and stay healthy. Peralta was incredible in 2021, striking out nearly 200 batters and posting an ERA under three in 27 starts, so there is potential to be a dominant mid-rotation pitcher. Peralta's strikeout rate fell off quite a bit in 2022, which may be concerning, so it'll be something to watch and see where that trends in 2023. Steamer doesn't project much more of a falloff in that category, but it's still concerning to see Peralta regress in that area. 

Steamer projections look at Aaron Ashby as a pitcher who will take a step forward this season. Ashby struggled at times last year but also suffered from some extreme bad luck.  

 

Season	Team	Level	GB/FB	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	IFH%	BUH%	Pull%	Cent%	Oppo%	Soft%	Med%	Hard%	SIERA	xFIP-	xFIP
2018	MIL	R	2.00	22.4%	51.7%	25.9%	6.7%	20.0%			39.7%	20.7%	39.7%						4.89
2018	MIL	A	2.13	23.5%	52.0%	24.5%	8.3%	4.2%			37.4%	26.3%	36.4%						2.25
2019	MIL	A	1.43	16.8%	49.0%	34.2%	15.7%	7.8%			38.2%	22.8%	39.0%						3.13
2019	MIL	A+	1.52	19.3%	48.6%	32.0%	36.2%	1.7%			46.0%	20.3%	33.7%						4.10
2021	MIL	AAA	5.69	21.3%	66.9%	11.8%	6.3%	25.0%			44.8%	20.3%	35.0%						2.26
2021	MIL	MLB	2.45	13.8%	61.3%	25.0%	0.0%	20.0%	10.2%	100.0%	42.0%	30.9%	27.2%	18.5%	55.6%	25.9%	3.18	72	3.05
2022	MIL	MLB	2.17	16.9%	56.9%	26.2%	6.6%	19.7%	12.7%	33.3%	40.5%	34.8%	24.7%	17.9%	54.7%	27.4%	3.48	83	3.29
Total	- - -	MLB	2.23	16.2%	57.8%	25.9%	5.2%	19.8%	12.1%	42.9%	40.8%	34.0%	25.2%	18.0%	54.9%	27.1%	3.41	80	3.24

 

Ashby has an above-average strikeout rate for a starter (10.6 per 9 innings), has a solid groundball-to-flyball ratio, and doesn't allow much hard contact. The crazy outlier in his data set is that a whopping 19.7% of flyballs hit off of Ashby went for home runs in 2022. That's almost double the major league average, and probably (hopefully) an anomaly, and something that reverts to the mean in the future. Ashby's ERA this past season was 4.44, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 4.06, and his xFIP (fielding independent pitching normalized for an average home run rate) was 3.29. Ashby's a good pitcher. There are control issues with the walks but there was also a bit of bad luck. Here's to a big bounce back in 2023 and Steamer appears to agree. 

Eric Lauer started hot for the Brewers in 2022. He was so good through early June that he was referred to as the Brewers' "fourth ace," deservedly so. As all good things must, his hot streak ended, and Lauer returned to earth. He still put together a solid campaign, winning 11 games against seven losses with a 3.69 ERA while striking out a batter per inning. Lauer has been talked about as a trade chip and asset that could bring some much-needed hitting talent to Milwaukee. Still, until one of the younger pitchers like Ashby, Gasser, or Small forces Lauer out of the picture, it's tough to see how a number four guy with Lauer's stuff will be removed from the rotation. Eventually, he may price himself out of the Brewers' plans but for now, having a pitcher at the bottom of the rotation with Lauer's makeup is a luxury most baseball teams do not enjoy. Steamer projects a relatively large jump in ERA for Lauer this coming season, despite putting up a 3.19 and 3.69 ERA each of the previous two seasons. It'll be interesting to see how Lauer performs this coming year after having a stellar start to the season, followed by inconsistent ball down the stretch. 

Adrian Houser could be the odd man if the Brewers go with a five-man rotation. Houser's ERA jumped by a full one and a half runs to 4.73, while his FIP actually dropped from 4.33 to 4.21. Steamer projects him to be adequately mediocre again in 2023. Houser isn't a bad guy to have around as a long bullpen piece or a starter to run through the rotation four or five times if someone hits the disabled list for a few weeks, but it seems like the league has seen his stuff enough times to know what he has to offer. Houser may still have some trade value for a team looking for a back-end starter, so like Lauer, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the off-season plays out with a few of these players.

The rest of the starter depth is about what you'll expect out of number seven starter material. Jason Alexander (no, not THAT Jason Alexander), a rookie at age 29, had a few successful weeks filling in for injured starters, and then when the league had some looks at him, it became clear why he was a rookie at age 29. Still, he was serviceable for a short time and may fill that emergency starter role again in 2023. 

Neither Ethan Small nor Robert Gasser figures to play any significant role in the rotation in 2023, but Steamer has each of them making a few starts. Small profiles as more of a reliever at this point, but the Brewers have made no indication yet that they aren't going to try to have him stick at starter. If things go wildly out of control on the injury front, we could see Small or Gasser making a start or two or possibly see a September call-up, but aside from that, I wouldn't figure to see either of these prospects see significant time in the rotation. 

So, what do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Based on what we see today, the Brewers will "run it back" with the same rotation. Is that the right approach? Do the Steamer projections look about right to you? How does the rotation stack up? Let us know in the comment section!

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[Brock Beauchamp]

It's not surprising to see Steamer that bullish on Ashby but it's also a welcome sight. If he takes a step forward, this rotation. Yowza.

[DR28]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's not surprising to see Steamer that bullish on Ashby but it's also a welcome sight. If he takes a step forward, this rotation. Yowza.

And it's real sad to think about how we'll most likely be losing 2 horses in a season or two... MLB payrolls are just a joke.

[Brock Beauchamp]

43 minutes ago, DR28 said:

And it's real sad to think about how we'll most likely be losing 2 horses in a season or two... MLB payrolls are just a joke.

I'm hoping the Brewers manage to extend one of them and trade the other in an attempt to maintain the competitive window. I don't see another way through it, really, unless they plan to trade all three of Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff in the next 12 months and do a quick rebuild that way.

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm hoping the Brewers manage to extend one of them and trade the other in an attempt to maintain the competitive window. I don't see another way through it, really, unless they plan to trade all three of Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff in the next 12 months and do a quick rebuild that way.

One can hope given the $20 mil. plus in payroll savings right now and the fact that we have yet to sign a single major league FA...

In the end, I do think one will be extended. I actually think it will be Woody due to his age and the increase in the market value of high-end SS this winter. Adames is really good, but I'm not ready to commit $170 mil. plus to him rn. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

One can hope given the $20 mil. plus in payroll savings right now and the fact that we have yet to sign a single major league FA...

In the end, I do think one will be extended. I actually think it will be Woody due to his age and the increase in the market value of high-end SS this winter. Adames is really good, but I'm not ready to commit $170 mil. plus to him rn. 

I'd also target Woodruff, as his price should be more reasonable than Burnes and Corbin will fetch more in trade.

Agreed on Adames. I really like watching him play but get too much of a Javy Baez vibe from that OBP to want to extend him at his market value.

[Jopal78]

 

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm hoping the Brewers manage to extend one of them and trade the other in an attempt to maintain the competitive window. I don't see another way through it, really, unless they plan to trade all three of Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff in the next 12 months and do a quick rebuild that way.

If Carlos Rodon is getting 6 years/162 million dollars, that is probably a comparable deal for Woodruff and Burnes would be selling himself a bit short at that price.  

Burnes and Woodruff are as good as gone, because I don't think the Brewers are ever going to have two players making 25+ million dollars per year. Maybe they can get Adames to take a little less, but the free agent signings this winter have pretty much doomed any realistic chance the Brewers had for extending any of those three players. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If Carlos Rodon is getting 6 years/162 million dollars, that is probably a comparable deal for Woodruff and Burnes would be selling himself a bit short at that price.  

Burnes and Woodruff are as good as gone, because I don't think the Brewers are ever going to have two players making 25+ million dollars per year. Maybe they can get Adames to take a little less, but the free agent signings this winter have pretty much doomed any realistic chance the Brewers had for extending any of those three players. 

I think the Brewers have a shot to retain one of the three but this looks to be a pretty classic case of letting a conservative approach bite one in the ass (hard). Had the Brewers been less risk-averse 12 months ago, the price for any of these three players in question would have been way lower. Like maybe "half the price" lower.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

 

If Carlos Rodon is getting 6 years/162 million dollars, that is probably a comparable deal for Woodruff and Burnes would be selling himself a bit short at that price.  

Burnes and Woodruff are as good as gone, because I don't think the Brewers are ever going to have two players making 25+ million dollars per year. Maybe they can get Adames to take a little less, but the free agent signings this winter have pretty much doomed any realistic chance the Brewers had for extending any of those three players. 

We'll see. I do think some of the salary dumping we've seen this offseason is part of a strategy to gain more payroll flexibility to go after extensions for those players. Other than Yelich, we have very little in terms of significant long-term payroll commitments. Plus, I think that this FA period has demonstrated that $20 million AAV contracts aren't as onerous of a burden as they used to be given expanding revenues league-wide, even for a small market team such as the Brewers. 

That doesn't mean we should expect them to extend all three, but it's far from an unreasonable expectation that they'll find a way to sign at least one of them...

[DR28]

28 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm hoping the Brewers manage to extend one of them and trade the other in an attempt to maintain the competitive window. I don't see another way through it, really, unless they plan to trade all three of Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff in the next 12 months and do a quick rebuild that way.

Right I agree... I really believe we will extend Woody and then trade Burnes at some point...

Burnes will easily get $250-$350 M from some team, just isnt gonna be us... It's really too bad!

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

Right I agree... I really believe we will extend Woody and then trade Burnes at some point...

Burnes will easily get $250-$350 M from some team, just isnt gonna be us... It's really too bad!

Yeah the Mets or Padres will offer him $300+ million and not even blink an eye.

[Hopper]

I'd rather just have them trade Burns now rather than wait another year and diminish our return.  I think it is a foredrawn conclusion that there isn't a chance in hell we can resign Burnes.  To be honest, same with Adames.  We would be hurting without them, but to maximize return, the sooner the better.

[UpandIn]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's not surprising to see Steamer that bullish on Ashby but it's also a welcome sight. If he takes a step forward, this rotation. Yowza.

If Ashby can just refine a few things, it's entirely plausible to see him jump into the Corbin Burnes tier. His stuff is so nasty and electric, that it's just about working on his pitch sequence and maturing as a pitcher.

Now...not everyone does that. Wily Peralta is a pitcher who had the upside of an ace. In fact, in the broadest of terms, I think there are usually half a dozen guys at least in every farm system who legitimately have "ace" upside. That takes so much to get there, but Ashby is healthy, he's overpowering and now he's on the precipice. It's unlikely he reaches the top of his ceiling, but...it's certainly exciting to think about what we could have with Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby/Lauer...and then Gasser could force his way into the discussion which could help the Brewers at the deadline possibly use a pitcher like Lauer for a significant upgrade elsewhere. 

 

Of course we all know how rare it is for a staff to make it through a season healthy. 

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

One can hope given the $20 mil. plus in payroll savings right now and the fact that we have yet to sign a single major league FA...

In the end, I do think one will be extended. I actually think it will be Woody due to his age and the increase in the market value of high-end SS this winter. Adames is really good, but I'm not ready to commit $170 mil. plus to him rn. 

Agreed. I like Adames...you can't commit 170 to him...and I really don't think you'd have to. 

People are looking at these FA contracts and acting like something's changed. NOTHING has changed. The Brewers still have team control for 2 more years, so comparing what Carlos Rodon got as an Apples to Apples comp is silly. 

 

How about Walker Buehler. Lets use him as a comp. He's been pretty much on par with Burnes. Same age, he's been an ace. Was dominant when they won the WS. 

Being a FA RIGHT NOW and being 400 innings away from being a FA is a pretty big difference. 
Tyler Glasnow is another. Not on the same level, but a dominant pitcher with just overpowering stuff who was likely set to get a massive payday. 

Even Rodon himself. 

 

No, the Brewers CANNOT sign any of these elite FA's to contracts. They can afford to extend players who are elite and still under team control for 2 years. But obviously as the team control diminishes, the chances to extend diminishes. I think last year was the time to sign Burnes, but I don't think it's nearly as unlikely as some are suggesting. 

You have to actually make the offer and make an attempt and it's possible the Brewers know it'll be expensive either way and they're just planning on making a run and then trading Burnes, Woody, Adames. Burnes came out and said he hasn't been approached, but that he'd like to stay in Milwaukee(not that saying he wants to stay here means that much, a contract extension would tell you just how much he wants to). 

[BlightyBrew]

I think the projections look about right.  I think this is a 83 win team right now.  Not going to be enough to win the division or make the playoffs.

[Robocaller]

Ashby could become another Ace. Or his command could continue to be a problem. I don't think his HR rate is bad luck as much was it is his lack of command which gets him behind and he grooves one to throw a strike. His command doesn't have to get a lot better for it to have a big effect on his effectiveness.
Other than Ashby, they really regress ERA to the mean, like they do batting average. We've got no chance of a pennant if the starters pitch like this.
Jason Alexander is fine as an AAAA arm to use for 2-3 starts, but I'm hoping we have better options. Gasser might be a better option by the middle of the season.
I don't know how they have Houser pitching in 61 games. He never pitched more than 35 in the majors (39 total, 4 in the minors). If he pitches 61 games, he won't be starting 13.

 

[Playing Catch]

My question is... What if they ALL stay healthy, and ALL of them have a career year in 2023? How many games would the Brewers win?

[sveumrules]

33 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

My question is... What if they ALL stay healthy, and ALL of them have a career year in 2023? How many games would the Brewers win?

This is essentially what happened in 2021 when Burnes (6.2), Woodruff (6.3), Peralta (4.5), Houser (2.8) and Lauer (2.8) combined for 22.6 rWAR and the Brewers won 95 games.

Throw a breakout year from Ashby in there instead of what we got from Brett Anderson and you’re getting pretty close to 100 wins.

Those same five only combined for 13.1 rWAR last year though and the Brewers  dropped to 86 wins.

[Playing Catch]

Yep. For all of the hand-wringing about their offense, the reality is that the team was constructed to pitch at an elite level, and play good defense. The pitching was merely "good," and the defense wasn't. If the pitching staff as a whole, improve, as I would predict, they could get right back to the 90+ win mark.

[khilona25]

I was gonna label Robbie Ray as one of my keepers, but this jump is making me consider McClanahan for his long term value

[JRob1125]

Nevermind, I didnt realize these were projected stats