Justin Turner to Red Sox; 2 years, $22 Mil (player option)

[brewmann04]

He might not just wanted to come here but was there any real offer ?

[Brock Beauchamp]

We're speculating about speculation. This has kinda gone off the rails, everyone. Let's get back to the topic at hand or just move on to another thread.

[CheezWizHed]

There is far more evidence that he simply took the biggest $$ offer than considering location.  

Normally when someone says "he doesn't want to play here" it is based on something (i.e. family is from west coast, lives a big-city party life, comments he's made previously, whatever).  Seems like your logic is solely based on that "most people don't like Milwaukee".  Just seems like an odd conclusion.  Might as well not bother signing any FAs... non of them will like it here. 

And don't take it personally, but I've always loved this assume quote...

 

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't get why anyone wanted him here. Looking at WAR Urias had a better year in 2022 than Turner. I know Turner had a better OPS+ but that seems like a pretty large premium to pay for a six point difference in OPS+. Am I missing something?

[brewerfan82]

2 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't get why anyone wanted him here. Looking at WAR Urias had a better year in 2022 than Turner. I know Turner had a better OPS+ but that seems like a pretty large premium to pay for a six point difference in OPS+. Am I missing something?

I don't think anyone wants him over Urias. I think most people want Urias in the lineup. The upgrade at 3rd base is to move Urias to 2nd base so we're not depending on Turang in a starting role to start the season. That said, I think most people also like Turang, it's just that we're leaning heavily on our rookies this season so it'd be nice to hedge our bets a little.

[MrTPlush]

12 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't get why anyone wanted him here. Looking at WAR Urias had a better year in 2022 than Turner. I know Turner had a better OPS+ but that seems like a pretty large premium to pay for a six point difference in OPS+. Am I missing something?

To shift Urias to 2B and not start Turang.

But as I said, why would you do that when you could have kept Wong on a one year deal if you wanted to drop $10mil+? MAYBE I would prefer Turner over Wong...but they are pretty much same value to me.

[endaround]

35 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't get why anyone wanted him here. Looking at WAR Urias had a better year in 2022 than Turner. I know Turner had a better OPS+ but that seems like a pretty large premium to pay for a six point difference in OPS+. Am I missing something?

Urias's WAR is based upon him playing 3B only half the time with the other half at SS/2B. 

Games:

3B 73

2B 46

SS 24

[CheezWizHed]

I'm not really sure I wanted him here on this iteration...last time when we actually tried to sign him... yes.  Now at 38... probably not.

But if we had signed him, he falls into the plethora of part-time, flexible position (3B, 1B, DH) bats and not full time 3B. 

Seems like if you play for the Brewers now, you are either one of the stars or you split starting time and potentially play multiple positions to maximize their value and avoid their "gap" (e.g. can't hit LHP on a Tuesday during a new moon when they ate bratwurst the night before).

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Lol what? Alright, you might else well shut down the forum. 

As far as someone saying city location is overblown. I mean, I don't really think it is. Plenty of players, especially ones in Turner's situation most certainly will consider location. No reason to take it personally that Milwaukee isn't that great and not a preferred destination to many. Sometimes we get lucky and we are a preferred location. Ramirez picked us based on location and Greinke wanted to go to a smaller market team. 

I don't think Turner would have ever considered playing here, if you think he would have. Cool, that is your opinion on it.

I find these sort of topics interesting that players would not "like" a particular city or franchise. 

The reality is professional baseball players go where the most money is 90+% of the time. They play for money,  and the earning capacity of being a pro baseball player is fleeting compared to the rest of the working world.

If Apple moved to Wausau, Wisconsin would Tim Cook resign his 100 million a dollar year position with Apple because it's Wausau? Hell no, and he'd actually have to spend more time in Wausau than any baseball player does in the city they play for (which is probably about twelve weeks a year, and when they're working most nights, including every weekend). 

Moreover, there may have been a time when players weren't thrilled with the notion about playing for Selig, on his irrelevant teams in a dump of a stadium, but those days are long gone. All the clubhouses and workout facilities in MLB are the best you can find anywhere in their industry, and with a few exceptions all of the stadiums are modern and well maintained.  To be sure, there most likely a sub-set of players who's wallets are already fat and would like to win or be in a particular geographic area, and there are those with branding and advertising interests that are best served being coastal, but those are really the exceptions and not the rule. 

As for Justin Turner, we'll likely never know if the Brewers were interested and if they talked any sort of numbers with him this time around. I am surprised he left LA though. 

 

 

 

[Redd Vencher]

This a fine deal for Turner, and one I would have liked the Brewers to sign. A name that I've warmed to recently, and might be had on a good value contract is Jean Segura. 107 wRC+ the last 3 seasons (131 v.LHP 97 v.RHP), and plays decent defense at 2B.

[MrTPlush]

11 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

This a fine deal for Turner, and one I would have liked the Brewers to sign. A name that I've warmed to recently, and might be had on a good value contract is Jean Segura. 107 wRC+ the last 3 seasons (131 v.LHP 97 v.RHP), and plays decent defense at 2B.

He would be a fine add. I guess it depends on how bullish one is on Turang holding his own. Segura isn't exactly a high bar offensively. If Turang is so good on defense might as well take the risk of Turang playing. 

I don't know we are as desperate for offense as we were to start the offseason now. Probably don't need to chase after spending a bunch of money on guys that are going to be near average offensively.

[brooks_quichenick]

Pretty glad the Brewers didn't sign Turner. At 38 I think he could fall off a cliff very quickly - and he's already probably slated for a DH role more often than 3B at this stage. I'd rather take a chance on Drury, or Brian Anderson for a lesser deal.

[MadThinker88]

At some point all smaller market teams have to bite the bullet and commit to multiple products from the farm system (either their own system or youngsters from other farm systems).   Its just the way it is with the game.

IF the reports are to be believed last off-season CLE thought it had deals in place for Winkler (w/ Cinci) or Matt Olsen (w/ Oakland) for once the lockout ended.  We know now that the trades did not happen and as a result CLE committed to a large number of players from its own farm system.  That commitment was rewarded by the performances of Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan & Oscar Gonzalez.

Until a player gets a full chance, one never knows for sure if the player will succeed or fail at the MLB level.  Hopefully MKE will give multiple young players a chance in 2023 and be well rewarded by providing the chance 

[clancyphile]

At this point, I'd rather take a shot on Turang, and if we're looking for more right-handed power, there's always Cam Devanny, who's forced his way to the Top 20 list. Plus, one of Miller/Toro/Brosseau could also step in. Brosseau put up a 117 OPS+ in some action.

Turner posted a 116 OPS+ in 2022.

Really think there's better ways for the Crew to spend $15 million in 2022. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Winker, Yelich, Tellez all LH Bats.  Turner was RH, He'd have fit games at DH, 1b even besides 3b.  Turang the Rookie is a LH bat.  You could easily have put a Urias 2b, Adames SS, Brosseau at 3b/1b  and Turner could have been DH/3b or 1b vs LH Starters. 

Turner for his age, is still producing top 25% in MLB as a bat last season.  He started off extremely slow which could have been due to the lockout/ ST.  His last 3 months were over 800 OPS  (1.030, .815, and 1.025)

over 300BA each of those months.  Over 370 OB each of those months.  Over 800 OPS last season innings 7,8 and 9 entire season stat.  K pct below 17%  since 2016 season and 18% or below his entire career.  Career 818 OPS vs LH Pitching

He was the best veteran bat in the 30s Milwaukee could have afforded that addresses the weakness in the batting lineup.  But he's gone to Boston.

Anyone else the Brewers sign that includes 3b has much greater downside than Turner did.  I see Mancini as a RH 1b/DH that Turner would have covered besides 3b/2b.  We have Hiura so Hiura has to be moved if you go that way.  And Drury, I posted in a different thread, stats that show he's a negative WAR/0 WAR player outside of Cincy and Arizona and he's just had for him, a career HR year.  One that seen .320 OB for a .302 Career OB batter.  That's a lot of not upside and all downside. 

 

[Devinep]

3 hours ago, MadThinker88 said:

At some point all smaller market teams have to bite the bullet and commit to multiple products from the farm system (either their own system or youngsters from other farm systems).   Its just the way it is with the game.

IF the reports are to be believed last off-season CLE thought it had deals in place for Winkler (w/ Cinci) or Matt Olsen (w/ Oakland) for once the lockout ended.  We know now that the trades did not happen and as a result CLE committed to a large number of players from its own farm system.  That commitment was rewarded by the performances of Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan & Oscar Gonzalez.

Until a player gets a full chance, one never knows for sure if the player will succeed or fail at the MLB level.  Hopefully MKE will give multiple young players a chance in 2023 and be well rewarded by providing the chance 

But those same smaller market teams can’t afford to give opening day spots to rookies who could just be kept in AAA for a few weeks to gain another year of team control.

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, Devinep said:

But those same smaller market teams can’t afford to give opening day spots to rookies who could just be kept in AAA for a few weeks to gain another year of team control.

Thus the new incentive.  If a team is worried about service time, they should be signing an extension with that player within 2 years.  Peralta and Ashby as examples.  But you are right.  Miller/Toro could be a hold Turang down to gain that 7th season, which would make sense if he's not qualifying for the incentive return on draft pick.  If anything until these lists are updated preseason and Turang is included or not, Toro/Miller provide depth til they are.

[Devinep]

5 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Thus the new incentive.  If a team is worried about service time, they should be signing an extension with that player within 2 years.  Peralta and Ashby as examples.  But you are right.  Miller/Toro could be a hold Turang down to gain that 7th season, which would make sense if he's not qualifying for the incentive return on draft pick.  If anything until these lists are updated preseason and Turang is included or not, Toro/Miller provide depth til they are.

The incentive is only for roomies who finish as ROY or top 3 in MVP/CY young right m? That’s pretty unlikely with Turang. Plus, being willing to give a starting job at 2B/3B could entice someone better than Miller/Toro and give the team more depth. Injuries, etc will happen enough there Turang will get plenty of shots this year.

[MrTPlush]

18 minutes ago, Devinep said:

The incentive is only for roomies who finish as ROY or top 3 in MVP/CY young right m? That’s pretty unlikely with Turang. Plus, being willing to give a starting job at 2B/3B could entice someone better than Miller/Toro and give the team more depth. Injuries, etc will happen enough there Turang will get plenty of shots this year.

Just for my notes, who is Turang's roomie?

[Thurston Fluff]

20 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

I don't think anyone wants him over Urias. I think most people want Urias in the lineup. The upgrade at 3rd base is to move Urias to 2nd base so we're not depending on Turang in a starting role to start the season. That said, I think most people also like Turang, it's just that we're leaning heavily on our rookies this season so it'd be nice to hedge our bets a little.

I should have worded that better. Why would anyone want him playing third over Urias? I understand Urias can also play second but we also have a young player ready to make the leap from AAA who can play second. If the reports on his defense are accurate he can probably play it better. This team has to develop young players to compete. That means we have to trust rookies at some point. Spending free agent money on an aging veteran to play a position we have covered doesn't make sens to me. The $15 million that it would have required to get him would get us a lot more relief pitching production than the difference in production of a Urias/Turner vs Urias/Turang combination would.

[wallus]

31 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I should have worded that better. Why would anyone want him playing third over Urias? I understand Urias can also play second but we also have a young player ready to make the leap from AAA who can play second. If the reports on his defense are accurate he can probably play it better. This team has to develop young players to compete. That means we have to trust rookies at some point. Spending free agent money on an aging veteran to play a position we have covered doesn't make sens to me. The $15 million that it would have required to get him would get us a lot more relief pitching production than the difference in production of a Urias/Turner vs Urias/Turang combination would.

Because without that we will likely be playing 3 rookies significant innings on a team that has ambitions to contend. Turang can play all over the infield and even some outfield so he would get a lot of playing time if deserved. Right now you are looking at Turang/Toro/Hiura/Brosseau as your potential 2nd base options.

[Redd Vencher]

20 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

He would be a fine add. I guess it depends on how bullish one is on Turang holding his own. Segura isn't exactly a high bar offensively. If Turang is so good on defense might as well take the risk of Turang playing. 

I don't know we are as desperate for offense as we were to start the offseason now. Probably don't need to chase after spending a bunch of money on guys that are going to be near average offensively.

The Brewers still need another bat that can handle LHP with how left handed they are currently. Lengthening the lineup with as many bats that can be average or better is what made the 2022 offense the best of the Stearns era. They have the budget space to do it, so it'd be a mistake not to use that this offseason.

Steamer has Turang (94 wRC+) being Cardinals Kolten Wong (96 wRC+). Having Cardinals Kolten Wong off the bench is better than having him starting if you can afford it. If Segura would sign for what the Brewers gave Wong in FA, I think it would behoove the Brewers to do that assuming a better trade situation comes along. Provides some protection in 2024 if they can't extend Adames, and they have to trade him next offseason.

[clancyphile]

27 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I should have worded that better. Why would anyone want him playing third over Urias? I understand Urias can also play second but we also have a young player ready to make the leap from AAA who can play second. If the reports on his defense are accurate he can probably play it better. This team has to develop young players to compete. That means we have to trust rookies at some point. Spending free agent money on an aging veteran to play a position we have covered doesn't make sens to me. The $15 million that it would have required to get him would get us a lot more relief pitching production than the difference in production of a Urias/Turner vs Urias/Turang combination would.

Exactly. The opportunity cost signing Turner imposes on the Brewers is a lot bigger, both in terms of possibly extending one or more of Adames/Woodruff/Burnes and in terms of the rookies from the farm system (Turang/Devanney/Wilson) or other players (Toro/Miller/Brosseau).

[brewcrewdue80]

5 hours ago, Devinep said:

The incentive is only for roomies who finish as ROY or top 3 in MVP/CY young right m? That’s pretty unlikely with Turang. Plus, being willing to give a starting job at 2B/3B could entice someone better than Miller/Toro and give the team more depth. Injuries, etc will happen enough there Turang will get plenty of shots this year.

Rookies top 3 in RoY inside 2 top 100 prospect lists and started season is what earns a draft pick.  Top 2 RoY and didn't start the season get awarded a full year service time.  You may not think Turang can finish top 3, but it's 3rd not 1st or 2nd. Say his defense is stellar, bats 270+ even covers SS for an Adames injury? It's going to be recognized.  Had you heard of any the top 3 RoY in the NL prior to this season?  Harris, Strider, and Donovan?

[Thurston Fluff]

6 hours ago, wallus said:

Because without that we will likely be playing 3 rookies significant innings on a team that has ambitions to contend. Turang can play all over the infield and even some outfield so he would get a lot of playing time if deserved. Right now you are looking at Turang/Toro/Hiura/Brosseau as your potential 2nd base options.

 

We have a team that can contend because we let players like Turang get a chance not in spite of it. Had we went out and got a free agent starting pitcher a few years ago we'd have wasted a decent portion of Peralta's value by having him in the bullpen. Just think of what would have happened if we didn't actually give Burnes a chance to work out his problems and just signed some aging veteran. We'd have wasted a year or two of his time here just because he struggled for a year. Not to mention how negatively it effects trade values. Not much demand for old average players. A team like the Brewers have to trust young players to come in and figure it out or we'll be filling holes forever with expensive alternatives that provide average production. Settling for average in the name of knowing what your getting is a fools errand. Settling for average because you're afraid of youth is a recipe for continued mediocrity.